Series Talk: WCQF: (C3) Colorado Avalanche vs (C2) Winnipeg Jets | Avs Win 4-1

[UncleRisto]

I actually think it's a slow rebrand we're watching. Seems like they've been leaning more into the blue than burgundy the last 5 years or so but it might've started with the blue-berries. We've had the 2nd Retro Colorado State Flag uniforms we wore for a season, we're still using the illuminati design as our thirds. Would not surprise me in the least if our next home jersey is navy with burgundy accents.

Gross.

 

[McMetal]

Just love the fact that we built an entire team of wingers that are good at scoring playoff style goals. With Makar, Toews, and Mack having accurate shots. Mack and Makar can essentially "create their own shot" as well.

Even Colton is a net front guy and Kovalenko not bad either.

What strikes me about our winger group isn't really the way they score, it's the way they defend. Between Lehkonen, Nichushkin, and Landeskog, we really are hoarding a lot of the better two-way wingers in the league.

Sometimes I watch a team like Edmonton or Toronto and think to myself that their forward groups desperately need a Nichushkin type of player to balance everything out. They've got the offense, but they need somebody to create space for their stars in the playoffs, and that missing ingredient is holding them back from reaching their potential as a team.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Gross.

I agree. But have you seen any of the Avs jersey's other than the mains? This is a team that stuck with the uniprons for over a decade. They also green-lit a jersey inspired by the bib you get from an all you can eat crab special at a freaking Red Lobster.

This photo was taken the moment the players were told the jerseys weren't a prank. Not one of them looks pleased.

 

[Balthazar]

I agree. But have you seen any of the Avs jersey's other than the mains? This is a team that stuck with the uniprons for over a decade. They also green-lit a jersey inspired by the bib you get from an all you can eat crab special at a freaking Red Lobster.

View attachment 864807

This photo was taken the moment the players were told the jerseys weren't a prank. Not one of them looks pleased.

Rants looks 10 years older now

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Rants looks 10 years older now

Smoking heaters will do that to a person

 

[Freudian]

How can 33 saves in 36 shots be .944 sv? Should be 0.916 sv%.

 

[the_fan]

How can 33 saves in 36 shots be .944 sv? Should be 0.916 sv%.

Someone is either bad at math or trying to pad Georgiev’s stats

 

[Jazzguitar]

How can 33 saves in 36 shots be .944 sv? Should be 0.916 sv%.

Is it because the own goal doesn’t count against sv % and just GAA? I thought it was the other way around but maybe I’m just mistaken.

 

[Balthazar]

How can 33 saves in 36 shots be .944 sv? Should be 0.916 sv%.

Someone is either bad at math or trying to pad Georgiev’s stats

Own goals are goals that don’t count as shots, and you can’t add an assist on the play.

So, when these own goals happen they still count on the scoresheet and still count as a goal against for the goalie, but they do not count against the goalie’s save percentage.

For example, in Game 5, Alexandar Georgiev faced 36 shots and allowed three goals.

In theory, you’d figure out his save percentage as 33 divided by 36, for a .916 showing. But because own goals don’t count as shots, his official statistical line is 34 saves on 36 shots, for a .944 save percentage.

Yes, own goals officially exist in the NHL

I had no idea until this week. So I did some research.

www.shapshotshockey.com

 

[UncleRisto]

Own goals are goals that don’t count as shots, and you can’t add an assist on the play.

So, when these own goals happen they still count on the scoresheet and still count as a goal against for the goalie, but they do not count against the goalie’s save percentage.

For example, in Game 5, Alexandar Georgiev faced 36 shots and allowed three goals.

In theory, you’d figure out his save percentage as 33 divided by 36, for a .916 showing. But because own goals don’t count as shots, his official statistical line is 34 saves on 36 shots, for a .944 save percentage.

Yes, own goals officially exist in the NHL

I had no idea until this week. So I did some research.

www.shapshotshockey.com

That seems like that doesn't need to be the rule.

 

[Balthazar]

Good article:

How use of analytics is part of Colorado Avalanche’s secret sauce: “Numbers are unemotional”

For the Avalanche, it’s not just the quality of information from the four-person team on the analytics staff, but how it gets communicated and circulated throughout the organization that help…

www.denverpost.com

 

[LOFIN]

Good article:

How use of analytics is part of Colorado Avalanche’s secret sauce: “Numbers are unemotional”

For the Avalanche, it’s not just the quality of information from the four-person team on the analytics staff, but how it gets communicated and circulated throughout the organization that help…

www.denverpost.com

Really good, suggest everyone gives it a read.

Ross Colton, who joined the team this past offseason from Tampa Bay. “I didn’t realize they looked that much into it. We never really did that kind of stuff in Tampa. Obviously, we talked about some things, but not like this.”

“Pretty much the whole pre-game meetings are based on the other team’s analytics,” said defenseman Sean Walker, who joined the club before the trade deadline after time with the Flyers and Kings. “It’s new to me. It’s not something that I paid attention to too much before, but it definitely gives you a strong idea of what the other team is trying to do. I think it’s helpful. It’s definitely interesting to see the analytics and how it plays out on the ice.

“(My previous teams) would talk about some stuff, like ‘they like to do this’ and I’m sure that was based off the analytics, but here they actually show you the numbers and the stats and where they place in the league.”

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Really good, suggest everyone gives it a read.

How it should be. Well done.

Analytics is important but not everything. Hockey still needs to be played with instincts though.

Good combination is probably the best approach.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Good article:

How use of analytics is part of Colorado Avalanche’s secret sauce: “Numbers are unemotional”

For the Avalanche, it’s not just the quality of information from the four-person team on the analytics staff, but how it gets communicated and circulated throughout the organization that help…

www.denverpost.com

Very good read. It looks like the Avs have invested good money into their analytic department and it is paying off. If only they would do the same with their amateur scouting department (although we can see some signs that it could be getting better).

And some people here want Bednar fired......

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

Really good, suggest everyone gives it a read.

Whoops..... Paywall..... too bad. Not giving the Post another nickel of my money.

 

[LOFIN]

Whoops..... Paywall..... too bad. Not giving the Post another nickel of my money.

Not paywalled for me

Maybe try it in incognito mode or something

 

[Ceremony]

No paywall for me either. It was actually quite interesting

“We’re just trying to find a competitive advantage to what we’re doing,” Avs defenseman Devon Toews said. “Analytics gives you data, and our coaching staff does a good job of supporting it with video and the things that show you the eye test as well as the numbers. They do a good job of bringing both pieces to us and we’ve done a good job of implementing it in games.

“They do a good job of understanding, like this number is a bit of an outlier and they’re not seeing that when they watch the video. Others stick out and it’s very blatant and straightforward — this is the way they play and this is what they do and that’s why the numbers are like that. They do a good job of explaining all of that.”

 

[GeoRox89]

Whoops..... Paywall..... too bad. Not giving the Post another nickel of my money.

Check the archive today

Google is your friend on what that is

 

[The Abusement Park]

I've been told 1000 times by @Hasbro that the Avs weren't stat whackers.

 

[Hasbro]

I've been told 1000 times by @Hasbro that the Avs weren't stat whackers.

I think statwhackers overrate the impact and will give credit to any positive and refuse to accept any blame.

The analytics department certainly proved its value in suckering Dubas in the Kadri trade.

 

[Foppa2118]

I think statwhackers overrate the impact and will give credit to any positive and refuse to accept any blame.

The analytics department certainly proved its value in suckering Dubas in the Kadri trade.

Analytics provide a lot of value, especially the team analytics, but the real issues IMO are the public stats, and how infallible they're viewed. Especially the individual stats, which can be so easily influenced by other factors from other players, and situations in a small sample size.

With so many outliers like Kefoot and Barrie, how would you know which players stats are accurate, and which are an outlier, if you're just relying on the the stats, and not weighing whether it matches the eye test or not?

The analytics teams use are much, much better than the public stats, because they pay a team good money to provide them. You can tell this provided a benefit to the Avs against Winnipeg, because they played a noticeably different style, with a different rush attack game, and different outlets, and looked very prepared for everything the Jets did.

But when the paid team stats drill down much further into specific areas of the game, to weed out the variance, and they still run into issues like Toews is alluding to below, then that says something about the accuracy of the public stats as well.

FWIW, it sounds like Bednar doesn't approach analytics the way some do with the public stats. He wants to focus on certain areas, and he uses video to see if it matches the eye test. This is how it should be implemented for the best results IMO.

“It’s definitely two parts,” Bednar said. “Me getting the information from (the analytics staff), and it’s not just this big blob of information with all these numbers. I want it broken down in a certain way that makes sense. So the evolution of that for us was they started giving me all the information, then I talked to them about how I want it broken down because this is how I like to present it. And then it just got cleaner and tighter as it went on.”

“We’re just trying to find a competitive advantage to what we’re doing,” Avs defenseman Devon Toews said. “Analytics gives you data, and our coaching staff does a good job of supporting it with video and the things that show you the eye test as well as the numbers.

“They do a good job of understanding, like this number is a bit of an outlier and they’re not seeing that when they watch the video. Others stick out and it’s very blatant and straightforward — this is the way they play and this is what they do and that’s why the numbers are like that. They do a good job of explaining all of that.”

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Analytics provide a lot of value, especially the team analytics, but the real issues IMO are the public stats, and how infallible they're viewed. Especially the individual stats, which can be so easily influenced by other factors from other players, and situations in a small sample size.

With so many outliers like Kefoot and Barrie, how would you know which players stats are accurate, and which are an outlier, if you're just relying on the the stats, and not weighing whether it matches the eye test or not?

The analytics teams use are much, much better than the public stats, because they pay a team good money to provide them. You can tell this provided a benefit to the Avs against Winnipeg, because they played a noticeably different style, with a different rush attack game, and different outlets, and looked very prepared for everything the Jets did.

But when the paid team stats drill down much further into specific areas of the game, to weed out the variance, and they still run into issues like Toews is alluding to below, then that says something about the accuracy of the public stats as well.

FWIW, it sounds like Bednar doesn't approach analytics the way some do with the public stats. He wants to focus on certain areas, and he uses video to see if it matches the eye test. This is how it should be implemented for the best results IMO.

“It’s definitely two parts,” Bednar said. “Me getting the information from (the analytics staff), and it’s not just this big blob of information with all these numbers. I want it broken down in a certain way that makes sense. So the evolution of that for us was they started giving me all the information, then I talked to them about how I want it broken down because this is how I like to present it. And then it just got cleaner and tighter as it went on.”

“We’re just trying to find a competitive advantage to what we’re doing,” Avs defenseman Devon Toews said. “Analytics gives you data, and our coaching staff does a good job of supporting it with video and the things that show you the eye test as well as the numbers.

“They do a good job of understanding, like this number is a bit of an outlier and they’re not seeing that when they watch the video. Others stick out and it’s very blatant and straightforward — this is the way they play and this is what they do and that’s why the numbers are like that. They do a good job of explaining all of that.”

We need both the eye test and the analytics. I mean look at how differently you and I viewed the defensemen in the first round. You had a pretty dim view on Girard. I thought he was fine for the second pairing. I thought Makar was absolutely dominant at moments, but overall got trapped in the defensive zone quite a bit.

You're absolutely right, stats alone won't tell us the full picture, but the issue I have with the eye test is that it often fails because of personal and confirmation bias. We often remember or seek to see the things that confirm our beliefs and this simple fact also causes us to minimize or explain away the things that conflict with our beliefs and we do it mostly subconsciously. I was surprised to find out just how much research has been done on this. I was asked to start sitting in on some interviews at work, and they require us to undergo annual bias awareness training. Pretty fascinating stuff really.

Also, I had totally forgotten the Denver Post still covered the Avs and was really pleasantly surprised by that article. If that's indicative of Corey Masisak's content, I'll probably bookmark their website and start frequenting again. Damn, it's been a long time since the DP was a destination on my browser.

 

[Foppa2118]

We need both the eye test and the analytics. I mean look at how differently you and I viewed the defensemen in the first round. You had a pretty dim view on Girard. I thought he was fine for the second pairing. I thought Makar was absolutely dominant at moments, but overall got trapped in the defensive zone quite a bit.

You're absolutely right, stats alone won't tell us the full picture, but the issue I have with the eye test is that it often fails because of personal and confirmation bias. We often remember or seek to see the things that confirm our beliefs and this simple fact also causes us to minimize or explain away the things that conflict with our beliefs and we do it mostly subconsciously. I was surprised to find out just how much research has been done on this. I was asked to start sitting in on some interviews at work, and they require us to undergo annual bias awareness training. Pretty fascinating stuff really.

Also, I had totally forgotten the Denver Post still covered the Avs and was really pleasantly surprised by that article. If that's indicative of Corey Masisak's content, I'll probably bookmark their website and start frequenting again. Damn, it's been a long time since the DP was a destination on my browser.

To be accurate though, my main contention was that Girard was not better than Makar or Toews in that series. I said he was ok at first, but got worse after, and made too many turnovers, while Toews and Makar played great IMO.

I agree the eye test is ripe for confirmation bias though.

Totally fine (as I hope you know) that we disagreed, but aside from our conversation, my issue with how public analytics are used in debate, is as argument enders. There's no way to rebut them, because they're viewed as unemotional, objective truths. We know for a fact the conclusions drawn from them are not always accurate, so this just isn't a fair way to present them in intellectually honest discussions IMO.

Like I mentioned in our conversation, what they measure is for sure an objective truth, but it's the conclusion you draw from them that can be inaccurate if you just look at the numbers, and don't think critically about the subject beyond them, because they can be influenced by so many factors that don't involve that individual player's performance.

Especially the public stats. And I think it gets underestimated how big a sample size you actually need for those outside factors to be less impactful.

But I agree, they can still provide a lot of benefit if you view them as one piece to the puzzle, along with a well trained eye, that can set aside bias as much as possible.

 

[Hasbro]

Analytics provide a lot of value, especially the team analytics, but the real issues IMO are the public stats, and how infallible they're viewed. Especially the individual stats, which can be so easily influenced by other factors from other players, and situations in a small sample size.

With so many outliers like Kefoot and Barrie, how would you know which players stats are accurate, and which are an outlier, if you're just relying on the the stats, and not weighing whether it matches the eye test or not?

The analytics teams use are much, much better than the public stats, because they pay a team good money to provide them. You can tell this provided a benefit to the Avs against Winnipeg, because they played a noticeably different style, with a different rush attack game, and different outlets, and looked very prepared for everything the Jets did.

But when the paid team stats drill down much further into specific areas of the game, to weed out the variance, and they still run into issues like Toews is alluding to below, then that says something about the accuracy of the public stats as well.

FWIW, it sounds like Bednar doesn't approach analytics the way some do with the public stats. He wants to focus on certain areas, and he uses video to see if it matches the eye test. This is how it should be implemented for the best results IMO.

“It’s definitely two parts,” Bednar said. “Me getting the information from (the analytics staff), and it’s not just this big blob of information with all these numbers. I want it broken down in a certain way that makes sense. So the evolution of that for us was they started giving me all the information, then I talked to them about how I want it broken down because this is how I like to present it. And then it just got cleaner and tighter as it went on.”

“We’re just trying to find a competitive advantage to what we’re doing,” Avs defenseman Devon Toews said. “Analytics gives you data, and our coaching staff does a good job of supporting it with video and the things that show you the eye test as well as the numbers.

“They do a good job of understanding, like this number is a bit of an outlier and they’re not seeing that when they watch the video. Others stick out and it’s very blatant and straightforward — this is the way they play and this is what they do and that’s why the numbers are like that. They do a good job of explaining all of that.”

And when it goes wrong you end up with shit like this:

 

[Pokecheque]

And when it goes wrong you end up with shit like this

I'm not gonna argue one way or the other with Dubas but it's absolutely true with Chayka. His sister might be an analytics expert, but he isn't. I don't even know if I can remember any moves he made that looked analytically-inclined. The Avs have more examples of that.

Perhaps the more foolish errand is running around calling these nerdy-looking GMs who didn't play "computer boys" and just automatically anointing them representatives of analytics when literally every single team in the league utilizes them to varying degrees.