Wayne Gretzky and Mike Bossy Time on Ice

[MadLuke]

And the time remaining in the game is really important to consider as well - The goal scored when three behind is more important the more time is remaining in the game, and the goal scored when one ahead is more important the less time is remaining (to an extent).

Yes and getting a team ahead by 2 goals is a bigger deal than making a 5 goals deficit down to 4....

Maybe just some scoring when the goal differential is 3 goals or less, 2 if there is 2 minutes or less left to the game or something like that.

Looking at the .json of a gamelog from the nhl api it seem like it would be theoretically possible to automate this

 

[seventieslord]

Yes and getting a team ahead by 2 goals is a bigger deal than making a 5 goals deficit down to 4....

Maybe just some scoring when the goal differential is 3 goals or less, 2 if there is 2 minutes or less left to the game or something like that.

Looking at the .json of a gamelog from the nhl api it seem like it would be theoretically possible to automate this

I've seen WPA models that are very good - they use statistics derived from all games, to determine the win probability added by each goal. For example, if there are 5 minutes left and you're up by a goal and you score, you just added, for example, 20% to your win probability (from 78% to 98%). Buf if you score with 5 minutes left to go from 5 down to 4 down, your probability just went from 0.1% to 0.2%, so you did nothing.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I've seen WPA models that are very good - they use statistics derived from all games, to determine the win probability added by each goal. For example, if there are 5 minutes left and you're up by a goal and you score, you just added, for example, 20% to your win probability (from 78% to 98%). Buf if you score with 5 minutes left to go from 5 down to 4 down, your probability just went from 0.1% to 0.2%, so you did nothing.

I was going to make the same comment. This is a concept that has a ton of potential, and I don't think it's really been explored in depth.

 

[seventieslord]

I was going to make the same comment. This is a concept that has a ton of potential, and I don't think it's really been explored in depth.

Jfresh has been doing it for the last few playoffs, but there's a ton of opportunity to take it back further, as far back as we want to go, really, since the game sheets are all public now.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Jfresh has been doing it for the last few playoffs, but there's a ton of opportunity to take it back further, as far back as we want to go, really, since the game sheets are all public now.

I started on this analysis around 20 years ago. I don't remember which season it was on - probably 2004, but it could have been 2003 or 2006. The math behind calculating the win probability isn't overly difficult(*). The real obstacle was the difficulty in finding all the data in a useable format. Ultimately, I wasn't able to get it to work. It should be much easier now (keeping in mind that "easier" doesn't necessarily mean easy).

(*) The biggest question is - do we calculate win probabilities based on the strength of a specific team, and their opponent, or do we do the calculations based on the league average? In other words - let's assume that a team scores the go-ahead goal, with 10 minutes left in the third period. I'm making up these numbers, but to illustrate the point - that might give us 0.25 win probabilities added (ie the team goes from a 50% to 75% expected win percentage). But if the 1982 Islanders do that against the Kings, it might push the win percentage to 85%, because it's unlikely that such a bad team could come back against such a strong opponent. So maybe that goal is really worth 0.35. (On the other hand, despite it being a tie, the Islanders might have had a 60% win probability before the goal anyway). My guess is both methods will end up very similar, but there could be distortions for players on teams that are either very strong, or very poor.

 

[Staniowski]

Mark Messier's numbers when trailing are incredible, as were his linemate Glenn Anderson's. So many times when the Oilers were trailing, it was Messier's line scoring to get them back in the game. I'm not sure I know why, but it is likely one of the reason's for Messier's very high reputation as a playoff performer.

The basic reason is what I've discussed before - Messier, like Lemieux, was better equipped than Gretzky to deal with better defense, tougher opposition. Messier was one of the most powerful skaters ever, plus physically strong, could hit and play defense, and was fearless. Anderson wasn't much different.

When I think about the Oilers scoring big goals, I think first of Messier and Anderson, not Gretzky and Kurri. I think anybody who watched the Oulers would say the same.

 

[Staniowski]

Ya, I have seen multiple sources where Arbour/Torrey/players relate how the Isles had that big 116pt regular season filled with individual accolades but flamed out in the playoffs. They realized they needed to leave some in the tank and so they took their foot off the gas in the regular seasons from then on. They also improved some of their depth to allow the minutes to be spread around though.

The Oilers had a similar realization during their dynasty as well where they would jump out into a playoff spot and then coast the rest of the way before dialing back up in the playoffs.

A very good strategy in a time when most teams made the playoffs.

It was the Islanders' depth that was the key. They really didn't have it prior to 1980. They dont win any Cups without Goring, Morrow, Langevin, and the Sutters.

 

[The Panther]

The basic reason is what I've discussed before - Messier, like Lemieux, was better equipped than Gretzky to deal with better defense, tougher opposition.

Dude, you need to give this up. It's becoming like your life's mission to discredit the greatest forward of all time.

When I think about the Oilers scoring big goals, I think first of Messier and Anderson, not Gretzky and Kurri. I think anybody who watched the Oulers would say the same.

Forgive the essay, but I have to do this.... The following are all playoff games that the Oilers won during the 1980s and with Gretzky, Messier, and Kurri all as teammates:

1981 vs Montreal:
Game 1
Kurri 2 goals (both assisted by Gretzky who had 5 points)
Messier 0 points
Game 2
Kurri 1 goal (third period clincher)
Messier 0 points
Game 3
Gretzky 3 goals (4 points) to clinch series win
Messier 0 points

1981 vs. Islanders
Game 3 (Oilers already down 0-2 in series)
Gretzky 3 goals, Kurri 1 goal
Messier 1 secondary assist

1982 vs. Kings
Game 2 (Oilers down 0-1 in series)
Kurri 1 goal (late in third to send it to overtime)
Gretzky 1 goal (overtime winner)
Messier 0 points (and minus 2 on 2 Kings' goals)
Game 4 (Oilers down 1-2 in series after blowing 5-0 lead in game three)
Kurri 1 goal (ties game in first period; Oilers go on to win)
Messier 0 points

1983 vs. Winnipeg
Game 1
Gretzky 4 goals, 5 points
Messier 1 assist
1983 vs. Calgary
Game 2
Kurri 1 goal (opens scoring in 1st minute)
Messier 1 secondary assist (on meaningless late third goal)
Game 3
Gretzky 4 goals, 3 assists
Messier 3 goals (two with primary assist to Gretzky)
Game 5 (Oilers clinch series)
Gretzky 1 goal (3 points)
Messier 1 goal
1983 vs. Chicago
Game 1
Gretzky 1 goal (5 points)
Messier 1 goal (3 points)
Game 4 (series clincher)
Gretzky 1 goal
Kurri 1 goal
Messier didn't play

1984 vs. Winnipeg
Game 1
Gretzky 1 goal
Messier 0 goals
Game 4 (series clincher)
Kurri 1 goal
Messier 1 goal

1984 vs. Minnesota
Game 1
Gretzky 1 goal
Kurri 2 goals (both primary assists to Gretzky)
Messier 0 goals
Game 3
Gretzky 2 goals (second of game and penalty-shot closer)
Kurri 1 goal
Messier 1 goal

1984 vs. NY Islanders
Game 4
Gretzky 2 goals (incl. opener)
Messier 1 goal
Game 5 (Cup clincher)
Gretzky 2 goals
Kurri 1 goal
Messier 0 goals

1985 vs. Kings
Game 1
Kurri 1 goal (series opener)
Messier 0 points
1985 vs. Jets
Game 1
Kurri 1 goal (and Gretzky EN goal)
Messier 0 goals
Game 2
Gretzky 1 goal (opener)
Messier 1 goal (scores late in third when game already over)
Game 3
Gretzky 1 goal (game winner, late in third)
Messier 0 goals
Game 4 (series clincher)
Gretzky 3 goals (and 4 assists)
Kurri 3 goals (and 1 assist)
Mesier 1 goal (in third period when game was already over)

1985 vs. Chicago
Game 1
Gretzky 1 goal
Kurri 2 goals
Messier 0 goals
Game 2
Kurri 3 goals (2 on Gretzky primary assists)
Messier 0 goals
Game 5
Gretzky 2 goals
Kurri 3 goals
Messier 1 goal
Game 6 (series clincher)
Kurri 4 goals (all 4 with primary assists to Gretzky)
Messier 2 goals

1985 vs. Philadelphia
Game 2
Gretzky 1 goal (Oilers only score 2 legit goals)
Messier 0 points
Game 3
Gretzky 3 goals (and 1 assist)
Messier 1 assist (on a Gretzky goal)
Game 4
Gretzky 2 goals
Messier 1 assist

1986 vs. Vancouver
Game 1
Gretzky 1 goal
Messier 0 goals
Game 2
Gretzky 1 goal
Kurri 1 goal
Messier 1 goal
Game 3 (series clincher)
Gretzky 1 goal
Messier 1 goal

1986 vs. Calgary
Game 4
Gretzky 3 goals (and 2 assists)
Messier 1 assist
(This is the only series the Oilers lost from 1984 to 1988. Gretzky scored 5 goals and Messier 2.)

1987 vs. Kings
Game 2
Kurri 4 goals (all with Gretzky assists)
Messier 2 goals
Gretzky 1 goal
Game 3
Kurri 2 goals
Messier 2 goals
Game 4
Kurri 1 goal (and Gretzky 5 points)
Messier 1 assist

1987 vs. Winnipeg
Game 3
Kurri 2 goals
Messier 1 goal
Game 4 (series clincher)
Gretzky 1 goal
Messier 0 goals

1987 vs. Philadelphia
Game 1
Gretzky 1 goal (opens scoring)
Kurri 1 goal
Messier 0 goals
Game 2
Gretzky 1 goal (opens scoring)
Kurri 1 goal (overtime winner... largely set up by Gretzky)
Messier 0 goals
Game 4
Kurri 1 goal (and Gretzky 3 assists)
Messier 0 goals
Game 7 (Cup clincher)
Kurri 1 goal (Cup winning goal)
Messier 1 goal (opener for Edm.)

1988 vs. Winnipeg
Game 1
Kurri 1 goal
Messier 1 goal
Game 4
Kurri 2 goals (both assisted by Gretzky)
Messier 0 goals
Game 5
Gretzky 1 goal
Kurri 2 goals
Messier 2 goals

1988 vs. Calgary
Game 1
Kurri 1 goal (game winner)
Gretzky 1 goal (clincher)
Messier 1 goal (opener)
Game 2
Gretzky 2 goals (incl. overtime winner)
Kurri 1 goal (game tier)
Messier 1 goal (pass bounced off Flames' D and went in on the PP)
Game 3
Kurri 1 goal (third period clincher)
Messier 0 goals
Game 4
Gretzky 1 goal
Messier 1 goal

1988 vs. Detroit
Game 1
Kurri 1 goal (and Gretzky 3 points)
Messier 0 goals
Game 4
Kurri 2 goals (incl. overtime winner)
Messier 0 goals
Game 5 (series clincher)
Gretzky (EN goal)
Kurri 1 goal
Messier 1 goal

1988 vs. Boston
Game 1
Gretzky 1 goal (series opener)
Messier 0 goals
Game 2
Kurri EN goal
Gretzky 1 goal (game winner in third)
Messier 1 goal
Game 4 (or is it 5?) (Cup clinching game)
Gretzky 1 goal (Cup winning goal)
Messier 0 goals

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So, I guess you just forgot about those specific games, eh?