With Celebrini's injury, I have to think the below three will be the favorites (with my projected 82 game paces):
1. Michkov 27g 72p
2. Hutson 9g 53p
3. Stankoven 22g 64p
If it goes something like the above, I think it'll be Michkov's to lose, though I could see a scenario where a guy like Stankoven steals a bunch of the forward votes, so the Calder goes to Hutson (similar to 2014-15 when one of Stone or Gaudreau should have won, but since they were tied in scoring.they split the forward vote, so it went to Ekblad).
Hutson should lead all rookie d in scoring by a healthy margin, as the field is fairly weak and he's likely to be given a long leash with tons of offensive opportunities (and he's obviously freakin talented). Casey is probably the only rookie D who could realistically contend with Hutson, if only he were on a team with a weaker D core. But since he's in NJ, he's unlikely to get the opportunity to play a starring role unless there are injuries.
One dark horse who isn't listed that I think could surprise is Jackson Blake. He's a really crafty player who plays with pace and reads the play incredibly well - not unlike Jarvis. I don't think he's gotten nearly enough attention for how good he's been in the last 2 years at UND. After a team leading 42 points as a freshmen (including an impressive WJC showing), he dropped 60 points last year as a sophomore, when no one else on the team scored 40. There aren't a lot of guys capable of that.
He looked awesome the other night vs NJ, and I think odds are good that he's able to translate that offensive touch to the NHL. And with some of the notable offensive departures in Carolina, I could definitely imagine a scenario where he plays himself into the Canes top 6 and finishes with 50+ points.
60% Michkov
20% Celebrini
20% Stankoven
defenseman won't win calder, zero chance
Why not?