Yeah. Every organization's list is likely to be different. They may have some positions, especially the top-2 or top-3 as common but things start changing soon after.
I am pretty sure some orgs rank Desnoyers higher than I do.
Way Too Early 2025 26 NHL DRAFT Discussion
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I am pretty sure some orgs rank Desnoyers higher than I do.
It's always extra fun because our lists are so different.
For now (very early I haven't watched much), I could see Hagens falling to us and likely further. He was just measured at 5'10.5. And he's generally considered to be not a very high upside center. Great tools but nothing special in the toolbox. Like maybe low-end #1C or #2C. But the Kraken are good on that. We're good on low-end #1Cs and #2Cs and good on smallish centers in general.
I have not followed Hagens as much so cannot really comment on it. I only saw highlights where I did see him make some good moves. But I know @Dead Coyote has followed him and thinks pretty highly of him.
He certainly does not fit from our need perspective but if he is available where we are at, I can see us going for him. Having 4 C's drafted top-8 over 5 seasons does seem overkill though .. LOL. I think we should do what we did with Catton last season, i.e if we do go forward. Go for one of the forwards with the higher offensive ceilings. Someone who is dynamic offfensively. Eklund could be a great option for us there. This is one of the reasons I am a little low on Desnoyers but he has really stepped it up in the playoffs. 17 points in 8 games for the Wildcats. The 2nd highest player on his team has 9 points.
I have feeling that Desnoyers could end up going before Frondell, Eklund and maybe even Martone. Heck, if he keeps this up in the playoffs, maybe even Hagens.
Hagens i feel would be another convert to wingers but he's a left shot and i feel like we have too many left shot players and not enough right shot players on the wing.
Early days for me, too. But it seems Shaefer and Misa are locks to go one and two in either order. Martone is just about in everybody's top three, so no chance getting him either. Hagens is still in that top tier of four players, but his stock is falling somewhat to the point that there is at least a modest chance he could fall to sixth. At the top of the second tier at least from a general consensus perspective is Eklund, who could fall to us as well.
Then things get much more cloudy. Players like Frondell and Desnoyers are next up, but some scouts are way less enthusiastic than most of their comrades, Frondell being ranked as high as #2 and as low as #18, Desnoyers as high as #3 and as low as #22. This year's high risk, high reward prospect is Roger McQueen, whose consensus falls definitely in our range (5, 6, 7), but he has missed nearly all of the season with a back injury, returned and then shut it down after another injury occurred. Most of the scouts I have read, while advising caution, drool at his potential, many putting him in the top three conversation when healthy. I can't see RF taking such a risk, but if he was fit, he would be a big, big fish to catch. So my prelim ranking before watching more of these guys play and their scouting reports is a tentative:
Shaefer
Misa
Martone
Hagens
Eklund
Frondell
Desnoyers
McQueen
Smith
Mrtka
Then things get much more cloudy. Players like Frondell and Desnoyers are next up, but some scouts are way less enthusiastic than most of their comrades, Frondell being ranked as high as #2 and as low as #18, Desnoyers as high as #3 and as low as #22. This year's high risk, high reward prospect is Roger McQueen, whose consensus falls definitely in our range (5, 6, 7), but he has missed nearly all of the season with a back injury, returned and then shut it down after another injury occurred. Most of the scouts I have read, while advising caution, drool at his potential, many putting him in the top three conversation when healthy. I can't see RF taking such a risk, but if he was fit, he would be a big, big fish to catch. So my prelim ranking before watching more of these guys play and their scouting reports is a tentative:
Shaefer
Misa
Martone
Hagens
Eklund
Frondell
Desnoyers
McQueen
Smith
Mrtka
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If not for McQueen's injury I would have had him in my top-10 but with his injury issues, I almost have him on my DnD list. However, based on his interviews and health reports, before the draft is largely going to decide his fate. The rest of my list is very similar to yours.
Shaefer
Misa
Martone
Hagens
Frondell
Eklund
Desnoyers
Smith
Mrtka
McQueen
** I have Hagens = Martone but went with Martone simply because we need more forwards with his skillset on the team. I have some concerns about his skating but not enough to keep him from my top-3.
*** I am warming up on Desnoyers. I would still prefer Frondell or Eklund over him but his recent resurgence has me close to the same level as the other two.
It seems like commentators are warming to this draft, the thought being that it is not as weak a draft as people initially thought. But the change of attitude appears to have more to do with the abundance of serviceable NHL players it will produce rather than the number of elite players that are available. From what I have read so far, the general opinion seems to be that there are only two elite players in the draft (Schafer and Misa), i.e. players capable of being first pairing or first line producers.
I'm used to seeing that sort of disclaimer in drafts, I don't think it should be taken too literally. There are going to be more than a few first pairing and first line producers from every draft, the difference is that Schaefer and Misa you expect them to reach that level, whereas others will have to surprise. But it is within a reasonable ceiling for several other guys to reach that level: certainly Martone, McQueen, and Smith (my current targets). Hagens as well. They all have top line / top pair ceilings.
Porter Martone I think you should really expect it, not just a ceiling but his reasonable upside I think is around a 90 or 100 pt player. Not the best motor, not the most admirable player, but his one touch play and puck protection will make his translation to the NHL very easy. He doesn't need to learn how to dangle NHLers, he just has to pick up a few power forward techniques and tactics and use the quick puck movement that he already shows.
In the eliteprospects discussion I shared yesterday, Cam Robinson said that McQueen in his healthy games looked like he should be going #1OA. Implicitly that's a #1C upside. A lot of risk as well, of course. Brad Allen of hockeyprospect mentioned that he likes to imagine players like McQueen as if they are still in their D-1 season, because McQueen has so much runway left compared to the smaller players. He just had a huge growth spurt and might be able to make massive gains in his coordination (and of course strength), and if he does that then he could be the best player from the draft.
Dead Coyote
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I don't honestly think this is a very weak draft. It's mediocre or above average, IMO. There isn't a true number 1 talent sure thing in the draft, but there's a lot of guys I think could get there. Hagens, Misa, and Schaefer being at the top of the list. Martone could make it as a winger I think, but I don't think he's any better than Slafkovsky at this point in their careers and big guys like that without the skating often take a longer time to be ready and develop well. I also just don't see the Kraken developing guys exceptionally well. I'd rather take a prospect who's less raw and more polished. Hagens and Misa are the two I see with 1C potential. Eklund and Frondell and Desnoyers are in that second tier, fine prospects but more complimentary. Mrtka is the only other guy I think can hit number 1 potential. Of course the elephant in the room is McQueen...who has lots of issues and his skating is dogshit and he's been injured all year...which personally all leads to me wanting to stay the hell away from him. But Seattle have swung for the fences before so I would not be shocked if they do again with him.
I honestly don't think there's any chance Hagens falls to 6, and I think we're going to get a good but not great prospect in Eklund or Frondell or Desnoyers, even though I would much prefer Mrtka both on potential and chance of getting there.
My list currently for us would be
Schaefer
Hagens
Misa
Mrtka
>
McQueen = Martone
>
Frondell
Eklund
Desnoyers
I honestly don't think there's any chance Hagens falls to 6, and I think we're going to get a good but not great prospect in Eklund or Frondell or Desnoyers, even though I would much prefer Mrtka both on potential and chance of getting there.
My list currently for us would be
Schaefer
Hagens
Misa
Mrtka
>
McQueen = Martone
>
Frondell
Eklund
Desnoyers
Could you give your thoughts on Mrtka vs Smith? I am thinking you rate Mrtka much higher because he is much more polished than Smith is right now? I think both of them have pretty high ceilings as #1D if they do hit.
From a forward perspective, any of the players you mentioned work for me. McQueen scares me because of his injuries the most but if the team does due diligence on his injuries before the draft, which I bet any team will, then I would be ok with him as well.
Dead Coyote
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Why do you think Hagens would be a convert to wing? He's the best combination of defense and offense in the draft and is completely serviceable at both ends of the ice. Plus he has excellent IQ and sees the ice well. He isn't afraid to back check or go into the corners either.
Dead Coyote
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I have Mrtka rated extremely highly because of a few things. Smith is a similar player in some respects. By no means do I think he's a bad player. It's more a case of me being high on Mrtka than me being low on Smith.
With Mrtka, he's an excellent skater- one of the best I've ever seen period for a defenseman, but is also exceptional for a player of his size. He's 6'6 at a late birthday, one of the younger players in the draft. He uses his edges well, has excellent skating posture, excellent endurance, and good or above average footspeed- which is helped mightily by just how much space he takes up when he's skating. His long strides help power him forward and win races against smaller faster players and if he isn't winning the race he's going to be right behind you with his long reach and huge body smothering you and giving you no space. His stickwork is good but not amazing and his physicality is about the same, although he's sometime shown flashes of the ability to line up huge crushing hits and be that physical presence both in front of the net, on the rush, and in the corners.
With a lot of big guys, it can be hard for them to put it all together when it comes to skating. A lot of guys will cheat on their posture, rely on their legs to generate speed, and hunch over to maintain that speed. Mrtka doesn't do that at all. He stays upright and uses his whole body to generate speed, which makes his acceleration much much better. If you look at the ASG skating, this is how all the guys like McDavid win. You start off with long strides, use your whole body to generate acceleration, and then use your edges around the corners to keep that speed. Mrtka's edges aren't as good as the top skaters, but his posture, acceleration and top speed are all text book, exactly what you're supposed to do. More than anything else this is really what it comes back to- all of his abilities run through his size and how he uses it.
Because he's so big he eats up huge amounts of ice in a straight line and often doesn't need to do the same kind of work others do when defending because his positioning is also generally fantastic.
You'll see the kind of thing I'm talking about a lot when you look at a shift by shift of him.
And let's be clear here. Defense is definitely Mrtka's main thing. Everyone knows this, everyone has beaten it to death already. Smothering is a word I've seen used a lot as a descriptor and I think it's incredibly accurate. Mrtka's ability to take away space and prevent plays before they happen is second to none in this draft, and hell, it might be second to none in any draft in recent memory. He reminds me a lot of Simashev in that way.
Mrtka loves to deny you space by putting his fat ass in front of you and daring you to try and get around him. His stick is active and he will take it from you if you're not careful. And if you are careful, chances are you're going to be coralled into the boards (where else are you supposed to go? there's a 6'6 behemoth blocking your move anywhere else) and then pinned there while someone else picks up the puck and carries it out. Or we go back to point number 2 and you get pick pocketed and Mrtka gets the puck out himself.
He's an absolute nightmare to try and score against off the rush because he just takes up so much damn space. You just aren't going to be dipsy doodle around him and make him look like a fool. It's just not going to happen. He doesn't get walked...ever?
Defensively, his biggest problems are poise, he sometimes throws the puck away or doesn't have the technical skill to do what he wants to. His balance also sometimes leaves a lot to be desired BUT that is just a huge part of being a big young guy who is still growing into his body.
Defensively strengths are his rush defense, his endurance, his play in the corners, his positioning, and his ability to get back and take away odd man rushes. Sometimes he gets burned for his plays but a lot of time when he should he is able to just get back and smother it anyways.
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Offensively, well that is the whole thing huh. So for me, one thing I'll say is that there's a huge difference between his play early in the season and last year compared to since he came to Seattle. He had a lot of flashes previously but has really solidified since then. And the big thing for him is two-fold. One is that he has an amazing shot. He's a shoot first mentality who often just throws puck at the net and I really like that for transitioning to the NHL. The other thing is that his stick handling and deceptiveness are really good and a very unique skill set for someone who can also be a shutdown guy.
His skating and his edgework combined with his stick handling show to me a very high upside where he's the type of player who can skate around the o-zone and will be able to drive to the net and fire off a laser. We've seen it a few times where he creates space for himself and uses cover to wire a shot.
His vision and awareness are really good. His technical skill with passing just isn't amazing, but he does have room to grow with that. That's his main flaw, but his other offensive abilities are exactly what you want from a d-man, especially on the PP which he didn't get a lot of in Czechia.
Another reason I favor him is because he's young, still has yet to turn 18, and because he's already played against men and has a very good skill set for the NHL.
---------
Jackson Smith is another big guy who skates extremely well, he's way more physical than Mrtka but his mentality is much more offensive focused. Whereas Mrtka is smothering, is a team defender and a one on one defender, and is able to slow the game down and play simple, Smith is a guy who plays with high energy and wants the puck on his stick, he's way more aggressive and is a much much better passer compared to Mrtka.
The stick handling and deceptiveness and vision are all really comparable to Mrtka, it's more of a question for me on whether he can transition to the NHL. His game is creative but not necessarily translatable as he relies a lot on his own skills and likes to hold onto the puck. He absolutely could be a higher upside player than Mrtka. And he's shown as well that he can play a shutdown role and is fine at defending the rush and in the corners and in front of the net. I'm just perfectly not convinced that he will be able to do that in the NHL.
He's a very good two way player. The differences between them I would say is that Mrtka tends to hold onto the puck a lot less and do a one touch more often, Mrtka is much more smothering defensively, and arguably has a better shot, while Smith is more aggressive, and a better playmaker. The other difference is what you think their floor and ceiling are. For me, Mrtka has a higher floor because of his size and ability to consistently slow the game down and smother offense. Most people would say I think that Smith has a higher ceiling, but for me I think that Mrtka just has so much room to grow offensively and looks like he should already be effective at a NHL level. I think that's ultimately the thing that will determine who you have first. If you value the floor of an NHL level defender who is going to be a rock steady minute muncher and you think that Mrtka could eventually improve his offensive effectiveness than I think you take him. A guy like Chara or Niedermayer is a rare rare beast and that's what I view the top end of Mrtka at.
If you value the potential of a Quinn Hughes or Cale Makar type who is able to be good at both ends of the ice but might have less of a floor and be less effective offensively in the NHL and you want to bank on that potential than you probably take Smith.
But for me, I'll take the floor of Mrtka and I think he has enough upside to be worth a top 5 pick.
cause we already have beniers wright and stephenson as centers. There are also such thing as 2 way wingers. Pair hagens with Stephenson as his center and that would improve that line and would help reduce stephenson need to play defense.
Dead Coyote
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good god i hope i never have to see hagens with stephenson, hagens has by far the most potential of any of those guys and the highest chance of being a 1C. it would be a complete waste to move hagens to the wing when he's perfect for the center role. he would also be perfect to pair with wright in general.
also i know there's a lot of recency bias in general with prospects but let's not forget that Hagens broke the WJC record
we don't need another top 6 center we have that with beniers and wright and here's the thing seattle has YET to play the entire history traditional lines that other teams do. Nor should beniers, wright or honestly Stephenson should be shoved on the wing.
WJC stats means squat in the NHL. So hes great at players around his age but playing with much older and more developed players is a whole separate thing.
Dead Coyote
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he plays against 23yo in the NCAA
if you think it's acceptable to have beniers and wright as our top 6 centers idk what to tell you we're not going to win any championships without a 1C lol
So he plays good or great against players around his age that still doesn't mean he automatically adjust against older more developed players in the NHL.
ever consider that Wright could end up that 1C as he develops further. Like i said we do not need to be drafting more players only just to play center...
I totally understand NOT wanting to draft another C with our 1st round pick, but it would be stupid to not do so just because we have a lot of C's or force newly drafted C's into wingers. Now, if I was supremely confident that either Beniers or Wright turn into legit #1C's, maybe I would be a little hesitant but as of today, you grab a #1C if you see higher potential in them than what we have in our roster right now.
it was more of drafting another player "purely to just play center" which we really don't need that. The issue is neither beniers or wright should be the 3C nor i feel neither of them should be shoved onto the wing. Beniers doesn't have enough offensive upside to be an effective winger, wright on the wing and you just end up causing a bigger log jam. What we need is more right shot wingers and wingers with size and well hagens is a left shot and he doen't have the size.
Honestly i don't think hagens drops to us anyways.
Dead Coyote
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players who are 23 are 6yo older than Hagens dude. That is the same age as someone who is in the NHL. No, he isn't playing against as much talent as there is in the NHL...nobody who is drafted is. And nobody can project perfectly how they'll do once they transition to the NHL.
But playing against men is generally a pretty good indicator, and 6 years of development time is a lot.
Hagens, again, has much higher upside at this point in his career than Wright did. And while I love Wright, he hasn't shown at all that he could be a 1C. He has the upside for sure, but uh, generally counting your chickens before they hatch isn't great. And the "but we can just move them to wing" is a point in favor of drafting on upside, not against it.
good lord.. Wright only just had his first full season in the NHL.... Hagen is not much a guarantee as wright to be that "1C" NHL is a much different style and quality in terms of opposing players then NCAA is. Just cause one has upside doesn't necessary mean that upside ends up translating well to the NHL.
We have a lot more bigger issues on this squad than having to draft another forward player and only have said player play center will actually solve. And its been listed several times what those issues are. I said my thoughts and bowing out of this thread for a while.
I don't agree with your approach. It is pigeon-holing us into forcing both Wright and Beniers into C positions in the top-6 and not being open to the idea that Hagens or Catton may be better options there.
Maybe you are right and Beniers won't be an effective winger but in my mind both of them are fighting for a long term position for 2C on our team. They have not shown enough to convince many people that they hit as 1C's on a SC cup team. Certainly not convinced me. But let's say Misa was available this season or a similar high-end C was available next season to us, should we go with the same approach and not draft said players because Wright, Catton and Beniers are already our C's? Also, if Catton and Wright end up being better top-6 C's than Beniers, moving Beniers for a roster upgrade is always an option. Players like Beniers may not be special, but they will still be an asset other teams could look to trade for and in that scenario, very likely to return a pretty penny.
so getting rid of our best defensive center in the roster just for the sake of drafting another "center' sure lets make our defense even more of a problem. Our defense has enough issues right now lets not making worse just for the sake of offense.
Dead Coyote
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Taking an objectively worse player because you think you're already set at that position is just a silly uninformed take. Comparing Hagens to Wright or Beniers now is also silly. Like of course Wright and Beniers look better in the NHL now than Hagens or any other draft prospect does, they've played in the NHL and the draft prospect hasn't. That's just...obvious. It's like saying that Stephenson is a better player than Bedard before Bedard was drafted because Stephenson has cups and has played in the NHL.
Junior stats or czech leagues or NCAA stats are relevant to future NHL production. They're not an end all be all or anything but they're relevant and just that, an indicator or a projection. Otherwise teams would just draft whoever wouldn't they?
Compared to his peers and other U18 players, Hagens looks really good. Certainly better than Wright and Beniers were in their U18 years. Not to mention Misa.
Dead Coyote
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Also re: Hagens upside in general
He set the record for WJC scoring, had one of the best 17yo years of all time, and has consistently looked really good offensively. I don't see lack of upside at all. For sure he doesn't always drive play but the roster he's working with isn't amazing and he has looked really good when he has better players to pass too. He's a playmaker but has a great shot and sick hands.
His skating is good too, he's good defensively off the puck...I just don't see a world where he should be talked about like a middle six tweener. He's not gonna be insane but I see a lot of guys like Tavares for Barzal in him.
He set the record for WJC scoring, had one of the best 17yo years of all time, and has consistently looked really good offensively. I don't see lack of upside at all. For sure he doesn't always drive play but the roster he's working with isn't amazing and he has looked really good when he has better players to pass too. He's a playmaker but has a great shot and sick hands.
His skating is good too, he's good defensively off the puck...I just don't see a world where he should be talked about like a middle six tweener. He's not gonna be insane but I see a lot of guys like Tavares for Barzal in him.
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