W Ilya Protas - Windsor Spitfires, OHL (2024, 75th, WSH)

[FlyguyOX]

And yet:

Yeah, he wasn't fast in that clip either. Just be average with great smarts and that's fine for that size.

One thing to keep in mind is tall guys take longer to fill out and add their man strength that helps with skating. And Ilya was extremely young for his draft, too.

 

[Langway]

For all we know, Aliaksei doesn’t succeed with Ilya’s circumstances.

The implication being that Ilya's circumstances are drastically more challenging? Seems to me Ilya's got better finishing instincts than Aliaksei at the same age. Both generally relied on their hockey IQ over their boots while in junior. Ilya isn't quite as tall perhaps but also may not be done growing. Most importantly, Ilya will have Aliaksei's guidance.

Aliaksei put in a massive amount of work to improve his skating. His was equally poor in junior and has consistently done the work to now become an impact 200 ft. player. With that sort of work ethic it would be difficult to discount what he could overcome. The question being, of course, whether Ilya is cut from similar cloth. Time will tell. Being a brother certainly doesn't make it a lock...but the template for basically everything he needs to do to have success is right there for him.

 

[qc14]

This is asserting that PPG is the go to measurement. Of course, there's no easy way to compare the PPG of players in different leagues who play different positions with different skillsets.

Please, I don't need your lesson about what is and isn't implied. If one wanted to make the argument that it's part of the equation, they wouldn't in good faith argue that Protas is a first rounder in a re-draft.

The way to make him a first rounder in a re-draft is to not include it into the equation and just read from the top off the spreadsheet on who is scoring at what rate, regardless of position or league. That's basically the only way he measures up as a first round caliber player at this point.

There is a very well accepted way to measure PPG across different leagues -- NHLe. You can even create models based off of that scoring, size, position, and age to predict whether someone will make it to the NHL or be a star (Byron Bader's being the most well known imo Hockey Prospecting)! And yes, PPG is not everything but it is the "go-to" measurement for evaluating prospects, especially amongst forwards.

 

[romao]

Yeah, he wasn't fast in that clip either. Just be average with great smarts and that's fine for that size.

One thing to keep in mind is tall guys take longer to fill out and add their man strength that helps with skating. And Ilya was extremely young for his draft, too.

If you trust NHL EDGE stats, they have Aliaksei faster than 93% of forwards this season.
Better than 86% in terms of speed bursts over 20 mph.
That's pretty fast even without taking into account his size

 

[Random schmoe]

I don't want to dive into the debate about position in a redraft or which skills have improved vs not vs complemented other skills. The topics are all too subjective and everyone has a bias one way or the other.

But I do want to ask and bring up a point on skating...

What particular aspect of Ilya's skating has been considered poor?

To be blunt, I hate when people simply state that player A has 'poor skating' or 'good skating', because "skating" actually involves a variety of aspects. There's straight-line speed of course, but there's also acceleration/burst, backwards skating, "edge work", stopping and turning efficiently, "open skate gliding" (my term, such as the position and movement used while moving towards the net awaiting a pass), moving laterally with the puck along the boards in traffic, and more. As well as simply doing all of those things as efficiently as possible to maximize space and energy.

I don't personally watch a large enough sample size of NHL players league-wide on a regular basis to have a great sense of each of those things, what is considered poor vs average vs exceptional. But to use one example that I saw a lot of and always wondered - Nicklas Backstrom was slow as shit straight line. But his movements were always highly efficient, and his ability to be 'quick' in limited space, be "elusive" along the boards, and use his skates/legs to position his body for maximum effectiveness was also excellent.

A guy like Aliaksei/Alexei, in the clip that wickedwitch posted above, may not be "pumping his legs" all that fast on the breakaway. But his stride length allows him to cover the ice rapidly. Would some prospect analysts consider his skating there poor because he isn't moving his legs at a rapid pace? Despite the rapid overall movement? (That play obviously doesn't involve much in the way of other skating aspects I listed above.) Honest question.

Another scenario in Post 57 of this thread by GoCaps2004, quoted below, Ilya is able to drag through/around a guy, cut to the middle, deke the goalie and score. Obviously there is some pretty horrendously lazy defense there by Carson Rehkopf (Brampton #16).. but Ilya's movements are effective, especially when complemented by his reach and "IQ" to make the play. Again, honest question - what in that play would constitute the type of poor skating he as attributed as having?

 

[FlyguyOX]

If you trust NHL EDGE stats, they have Aliaksei faster than 93% of forwards this season.
Better than 86% in terms of speed bursts over 20 mph.
That's pretty fast even without taking into account his size

That is surprising indeed

 

[um]

If you trust NHL EDGE stats, they have Aliaksei faster than 93% of forwards this season.
Better than 86% in terms of speed bursts over 20 mph.
That's pretty fast even without taking into account his size

Please don't bring facts into our feelings debate.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Or actually watch the games. He have played excellent and other 1st round picks are struggling. Its added data some players have had worse development and not improved their weaknesses others have made bigger jumps in their development. Its a reason why mock drafts 1 year before the draft look different than mock drafts 1 week before the draft which at the top is starting to look quite similar as the eventual draft ends up. As some players have developed more during the year than others. The same happens after the draft that if teams had the data and seen what players was 7 months after the draft they would have picked diffrently than what they did on draft day.

That doesnt mean Protas would have been a 1st rounder if the draft happened today, but based on his production he would have been picked higher as production in juniors is in general a good indicator that there is a chance for NHL success. Of course you have examples of players with high production failing and players with low production succeeding, but in general very few who cant produce at the junior level are able to do so with the pros.

He was drafted 75.

Keep in mind that there are also hockey players drafted outside the first round that also are playing well, and potentially some players drafted a lot closer to the first round and some who are playing better.

And there actually aren’t even that many first rounders playing bad. Maybe 3 or 4? We actually have the example of his teammate Greentree with nearly identical stats. Drafted first round. Probably has dropped more than most in that first round, if anything, and he’s still at virtually the same PPG as Protas with a better track record and probably better skills. Protas would not go ahead of Greentree, and that’s about as clean of a comp as you get with a late first rounder with a similar skillset who hasn’t raised his stock and the type of player that maybe you could try to envision some argument that he’s ahead of? But realistically he’s not, and that tells you what you need to know about his first round qualifications at this point.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The implication being that Ilya's circumstances are drastically more challenging?

The implication being it takes a lot to go right to make the NHL and then succeed. There are a lot of factors there to consider, and when you are adjudged to not be anywhere near one of the future NHL’ers from your draft (such as being drafted third round) the odds are even longer. Most in that position do not succeed. It’s a credit to him that he did.

Do you really think that of the players who succeed and those who don’t it’s all pure talent and will? Do you think the teams that picked the busts were all just so bad at evaluating talent and character? Or is it difficult to predict the development of 18 year old hockey players? And is difficult to predict the road ahead for each player at each level?

There’s nothing uniquely special about the older Protas. He’s not Pavel Datsyuk where in hindsight of course a player with that talent and mentality succeeded. Things went right, but anyone that says they were sure this would happen or in a different set of circumstances (such as being a different person) that he would definitely succeed again is simply not being logical. As I mentioned, take the case of Alex Nylander.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

And there actually aren’t even that many first rounders playing bad. Maybe 3 or 4? We actually have the example of his teammate Greentree with nearly identical stats. Drafted first round. Probably has dropped more than most in that first round, if anything, and he’s still at virtually the same PPG as Protas with a better track record and probably better skills.

Can somebody tell me what this guy want to accomplish here ?

The 2nd leading scorer in the OHL is dropping and the 3rd leading scorer with a drastic increase in points is a poor skater who was lucky to get drafted at all.

Can somebody fill me in. Did somebody hijack his account. The latter makes sense.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Can somebody tell me what this guy want to accomplish here ?

The 2nd leading scorer in the OHL is dropping and the 3rd leading scorer with a drastic increase in points is a poor skater who was lucky to get drafted at all.

Can somebody fill me in. Did somebody hijack his account. The latter makes sense.

He’s getting outscored by a guy who went third round a year ago. He didn’t get close to making the Canadian WJC team this year (and before people say that’s a good thing, he wasn’t even a controversial cut because he was never in contention to make it).

I don’t even know that I think Greentree has really dropped. Probably a spot or two, if anything, and maybe nothing. My point has been that redrafts don’t change that quickly. But I also don’t see how Greentree is any higher. You are just nitpicking a word or two in my post for some reason.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

He’s getting outscored by a guy who went third round a year ago. He didn’t get close to making the Canadian WJC team this year (and before people say that’s a good thing, he wasn’t even a controversial cut because he was never in contention to make it).

I don’t even know that I think Greentree has really dropped. Probably a spot or two, if anything, and maybe nothing. My point has been that redrafts don’t change that quickly. But I also don’t see how Greentree is any higher. You are just nitpicking a word or two in my post for some reason.

Once again, who the **** cares he or whoever was dropped for team Canada. Is team Canada the ultimate scouting agency or so. If they think there were 6 better forwards for the two scoring lines, thats perfectly acceptable.

Secondly, you are out of lunch if you think many GM’s would not exchange their mid round pick for Protas if they knew this in hindsight.

Nobody is nitpicking. You are basically trolling.

 

[Kuz]

He’s getting outscored by a guy who went third round a year ago. He didn’t get close to making the Canadian WJC team this year (and before people say that’s a good thing, he wasn’t even a controversial cut because he was never in contention to make it).

I don’t even know that I think Greentree has really dropped. Probably a spot or two, if anything, and maybe nothing. My point has been that redrafts don’t change that quickly. But I also don’t see how Greentree is any higher. You are just nitpicking a word or two in my post for some reason.

Are you Even Watching Protas play or just trolling? Players develop all the time and Protas is having one of the best seasons of players drafted in his draft. That certainly makes him a player climbing the rankings. As others who Are following Windsor says Protas is the play driver on that line.

In Capitals boards own prospect ranking he will most likely go ahead of the Caps 1st round pick Parascak and also Muggli from the 2nd round. Will go behind Cole Hutson who Are also having a very strong season and had a very good WJC.

If the draft was today you Are stupid if you believe the resultat would be the same. There have been a lot of development for a lot of prospects while others have not moved forward in their development.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Once again, who the **** cares he or whoever was dropped for team Canada. Is team Canada the ultimate scouting agency or so. If they think there were 6 better forwards for the two scoring lines, thats perfectly acceptable.

Secondly, you are out of lunch if you think many GM’s would not exchange their mid round pick for Protas if they knew this in hindsight.

Nobody is nitpicking. You are basically trolling.

I’m trolling because I put forth two reasons that you asked for that aren’t convenient for your narrative?

You are nitpicking. I think Greentree would be drafted in the same range. There’s no controversy here about Greentree’s draft status. The larger discussion is about Protas, not Greentree. You responded to a sentence about Greentree in a post about Protas.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Are you Even Watching Protas play or just trolling? Players develop all the time and Protas is having one of the best seasons of players drafted in his draft. That certainly makes him a player climbing the rankings. As others who Are following Windsor says Protas is the play driver on that line.

In Capitals boards own prospect ranking he will most likely go ahead of the Caps 1st round pick Parascak and also Muggli from the 2nd round. Will go behind Cole Hutson who Are also having a very strong season and had a very good WJC.

If the draft was today you Are stupid if you believe the resultat would be the same. There have been a lot of development for a lot of prospects while others have not moved forward in their development.

I’m trolling because I don’t make crazy comments like he’d be a first rounder in a redraft?

Look, if you can’t even come up with that he’s the best non-first rounder for his own NHL team from 2024, the discussion of him as a first rounder is a little crazy.

I think the stupid view is thinking NHL teams opinions change as the wind blows and they have no real convictions, like you are claiming.

 

[wickedwitch]

The implication being it takes a lot to go right to make the NHL and then succeed. There are a lot of factors there to consider, and when you are adjudged to not be anywhere near one of the future NHL’ers from your draft (such as being drafted third round) the odds are even longer. Most in that position do not succeed. It’s a credit to him that he did.

Do you really think that of the players who succeed and those who don’t it’s all pure talent and will? Do you think the teams that picked the busts were all just so bad at evaluating talent and character? Or is it difficult to predict the development of 18 year old hockey players? And is difficult to predict the road ahead for each player at each level?

There’s nothing uniquely special about the older Protas. He’s not Pavel Datsyuk where in hindsight of course a player with that talent and mentality succeeded. Things went right, but anyone that says they were sure this would happen or in a different set of circumstances (such as being a different person) that he would definitely succeed again is simply not being logical. As I mentioned, take the case of Alex Nylander.

There's an implication here that the Caps just lucked into the elder Protas' success and will have to also rely on the same luck for Ilya. And while luck is obviously a factor, this point of view removes all aspects of the Caps player development system. In particular, the Caps believe that poor skating (aka the biggest weakness of both Protas brothers at the time they were drafted) is fixable. In multiple cases, they have proven that they are correct. There are other more subtle aspects of the player development prospect that I think the Caps do either well or differently than most clubs that can also impact how a player turns out.

 

[Fantomas]

We actually have the example of his teammate Greentree with nearly identical stats. Drafted first round. Probably has dropped more than most in that first round, if anything

wwwwwwhat

Greentree has been excellent.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

I’m trolling because I put forth two reasons that you asked for that aren’t convenient for your narrative.

You are nitpicking. I think Greentree would be drafted in the same range. There’s no controversy here about Greentree’s draft status. The larger discussion is about Protas, not Greentree. You responded to a sentence about Greentree in a post about Protas.

* My narrative.
* Your two reasons.

I am going to use team Canada as argument in the future too. Love it.

Any GM would be thrilled to see such a development of their mid round pick which you thought should not have been drafted at all.

BTW I am still waiting on the bust I bet on.

 

[Topcheese31]

I'm talking about what has changed since the last time this poster made this point.


So you think NHL teams are just going to read off the spreadsheet and decide a re-draft by who has the highest PPG? How do you even account for players who are playing in significantly better or worse leagues than others? How do you account for a defenseman? Or a goaltender?


They actually did like his scoring. If he was just a big guy who is a project due to being big and didn't produce, he wouldn't have been drafted, especially with his skating. He's not as big as his brother, for instance.

His USHL stats weren't eye catching (he was getting outscored by Ben Kevan a draft behind if I'm remembering correctly), but they were pretty good, all things considered.

Yes a lot change between my two post. It called consistency. He could have temper his production after christmas ( like Artamonov, Kevin He, etc..). He showed that he can keep up the pace.

So his production would not move the needle in a redraft after 7 month but the production of a 5"10 Defencemen in Cole hutson would put him in front of Greentree ? I don't get it. Is it because he's american ?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yes a lot change between my two post. It called consistency. He could have temper his production after christmas ( like Artamonov, Kevin He, etc..). He showed that he can keep up the pace.

So his production would not move the needle in a redraft after 7 month but the production of a 5"10 Defencemen in Cole hutson would put him in front of Greentree ? I don't get it. Is it because he's american ?

I personally had Cole Hutson ranked #13. I ranked him higher than every single person I saw that put out a rankings. I don't think anything has changed with Hutson. He's always been this good. People just missed the boat. He's also playing at a higher level of hockey with his club team, and he was the freaking best defenseman (arguably best player) at the WJC. I think that beats some regular old junior games. Besides, I think a good rule of thumb is that if you aren't the best prospect from your own NHL franchise picked outside of the first round then you probably aren't moving up into first round territory from third round territory after 7 months.

But on the topic, what I think people don't remember is that Lane Hutson wasn't even making it into first rounds of re-drafts (or at best the very end of the first round) while he was clearly demonstrating himself to be one of the best players from his draft. He was picked second round and he was way more proven with way more talent than Protas. The rationale all the experts would give in regards to what they heard from NHL teams was that teams aren't moved off their opinions so quickly. There are apparently still some NHL people that claim Lane Hutson won't be a playoff player, he's not top 5 of a 2022 re-draft, and all that. This stuff moves a lot slower than you realize. 7 months of Protas putting up first round stats doesn't make him a first rounder.

 

[Topcheese31]

I personally had Cole Hutson ranked #13. I ranked him higher than every single person I saw that put out a rankings. I don't think anything has changed with Hutson. He's always been this good. People just missed the boat. He's also playing at a higher level of hockey with his club team, and he was the freaking best defenseman (arguably best player) at the WJC. I think that beats some regular old junior games. Besides, I think a good rule of thumb is that if you aren't the best prospect from your own NHL franchise picked outside of the first round then you probably aren't moving up into first round territory from third round territory after 7 months.

But on the topic, what I think people don't remember is that Lane Hutson wasn't even making it into first rounds of re-drafts (or at best the very end of the first round) while he was clearly demonstrating himself to be one of the best players from his draft. He was picked second round and he was way more proven with way more talent than Protas. The rationale all the experts would give in regards to what they heard from NHL teams was that teams aren't moved off their opinions so quickly. There are apparently still some NHL people that claim Lane Hutson won't be a playoff player, he's not top 5 of a 2022 re-draft, and all that. This stuff moves a lot slower than you realize. 7 months of Protas putting up first round stats doesn't make him a first rounder.

I respect your opinion, everyone have the right to have one.

I just can't see him fall from the first round with his tool at that point. When he was draft, he was playing in the USHL with a below 1PPG. At that time of their career I think evaluation move faster than this. How many player we saw going out in the first round and see his value fall rapidly at their 19 years season.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I have no idea what hotly-contested debate has been lighting up this thread over the past few days and I have no interest in reading it. But my two cents is that Ilya is for real.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Pavel said Protas the younger was not worth a draft pick, and when he makes an evaluation on a player, he is very stubborn to come off it

“Methinks the lady doth Protas too much”

 

[Kuz]

I personally had Cole Hutson ranked #13. I ranked him higher than every single person I saw that put out a rankings. I don't think anything has changed with Hutson. He's always been this good. People just missed the boat. He's also playing at a higher level of hockey with his club team, and he was the freaking best defenseman (arguably best player) at the WJC. I think that beats some regular old junior games. Besides, I think a good rule of thumb is that if you aren't the best prospect from your own NHL franchise picked outside of the first round then you probably aren't moving up into first round territory from third round territory after 7 months.

But on the topic, what I think people don't remember is that Lane Hutson wasn't even making it into first rounds of re-drafts (or at best the very end of the first round) while he was clearly demonstrating himself to be one of the best players from his draft. He was picked second round and he was way more proven with way more talent than Protas. The rationale all the experts would give in regards to what they heard from NHL teams was that teams aren't moved off their opinions so quickly. There are apparently still some NHL people that claim Lane Hutson won't be a playoff player, he's not top 5 of a 2022 re-draft, and all that. This stuff moves a lot slower than you realize. 7 months of Protas putting up first round stats doesn't make him a first rounder.

So since you had Hutson ranked higher he can move up to the first round? But a player like Protas cant move up since you didn't rankt him that high. Probably you ad several others missed the boat on Protas aswell. He wasnt a random pick for the Caps who traded up to secure him so they obviously had done their job scouting him.

If we just look at forwards late in the first round.

Sam O'Reilly 43 points in 43 games in the OHL on one of the best teams.
Emil Hemming 27 points in 39 games in the OHL
Matvei Gridin 55 points in 42 games in QMJHL.
Vanacker 17 points in 23 games in the OHL.
Letorneau 2 points in 22 games in the NCAA.
Cole Beaudoin 31 points in 30 games in the OHL.
Michael Hage 25 points in 23 games in the NCAA.
Michael Eiserman 21 points in 22 games in NCAA.
Greentree 79 points in 45 games in the OHL laying with Protas.

Then you have Protas with 74 points in 41 games. Non of the OHL guys except Greentree have produced anywhere near what Protas have done so far. Gridin is a little closer in production and I havent really watched him and know if hes driving his line etc. Around ppg is good in the NCAA so I think Hage and Eiserman are defending their positions based on what I have seen of them so far.