W Ilya Protas - Windsor Spitfires, OHL (2024, 75th, WSH)

[LeProspector]

Anyone that doubts Protas hasn’t seen him play, he has been one of the best players in the OHL, and on a team that has a first rounder from the same draft who is playing great, too, he is the clear best player on that team.

Windsor went from dead last in the OHL last year, to one of the top teams in the league this year. That’s mainly because of Protas. He is a difference maker.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

So since you had Hutson ranked higher he can move up to the first round? But a player like Protas cant move up since you didn't rankt him that high. Probably you ad several others missed the boat on Protas aswell. He wasnt a random pick for the Caps who traded up to secure him so they obviously had done their job scouting him.

This is a total straw man argument. You’re making up things that were never argued.

If we just look at forwards late in the first round.

Sam O'Reilly 43 points in 43 games in the OHL on one of the best teams.
Emil Hemming 27 points in 39 games in the OHL
Matvei Gridin 55 points in 42 games in QMJHL.
Vanacker 17 points in 23 games in the OHL.
Letorneau 2 points in 22 games in the NCAA.
Cole Beaudoin 31 points in 30 games in the OHL.
Michael Hage 25 points in 23 games in the NCAA.
Michael Eiserman 21 points in 22 games in NCAA.
Greentree 79 points in 45 games in the OHL laying with Protas.

Then you have Protas with 74 points in 41 games. Non of the OHL guys except Greentree have produced anywhere near what Protas have done so far. Gridin is a little closer in production and I havent really watched him and know if hes driving his line etc. Around ppg is good in the NCAA so I think Hage and Eiserman are defending their positions based on what I have seen of them so far.

The fact that you are literally looking off a spreadsheet, regardless of league, and saying that Protas is doing as well or better than everyone you named just proves to me that you have no clue what you’re saying. And obviously the only argument for him is to do exactly what.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

And yes, PPG is not everything but it is the "go-to" measurement for evaluating prospects, especially amongst forwards.

No

 

[Kuz]

This is a total straw man argument. You’re making up things that were never argued.

The fact that you are literally looking off a spreadsheet, regardless of league, and saying that Protas is doing as well or better than everyone you named just proves to me that you have no clue what you’re saying. And obviously the only argument for him is to do exactly whatever didnt

You litteraly said Hutson was a 1st round pick and was drafted to low. So its possible for him to move up, but at the same time you Are arguing Protas havent moved up since its to early after draft.

This is a total straw man argument. You’re making up things that were never argued.

The fact that you are literally looking off a spreadsheet, regardless of league, and saying that Protas is doing as well or better than everyone you named just proves to me that you have no clue what you’re saying. And obviously the only argument for him is to do exactly what.

I didnt say he was having better seasons than all of them. The other OHL guys I have seen some off and to me Protas have been better than all of them this year when I have watched. Also when the difference Get to the amount it is in points compared to a lot of the others I would say he is having a better season than the other OHL guys I mentioned and in the same area as Greentree production wise, but I have been more impressed with Protas when watching.

Another question is who projects to be a NHLer and there some of the other might still have a better chance to be a NHLer. Even with having a Worse season thats up to scouts to see if they think the weaknesses in the players game can be fixed and if their strengths Are good enough to also hold up at the NHL level. There Are several players who have dominated juniors, but not had tools good enough to make it in the NHL. That might be the case with Protas.

But I like Protas chances with his size and overall game and I think he have passed several of those I mentioned, but not all like I mentioned for example Eisermann which I think is defending his position.

Which of the OHL guys I mentioned do you think Are having a better season than Protas?

 

[WarriorofTime]

I personally had Cole Hutson ranked #13. I ranked him higher than every single person I saw that put out a rankings. I don't think anything has changed with Hutson. He's always been this good. People just missed the boat. He's also playing at a higher level of hockey with his club team, and he was the freaking best defenseman (arguably best player) at the WJC. I think that beats some regular old junior games. Besides, I think a good rule of thumb is that if you aren't the best prospect from your own NHL franchise picked outside of the first round then you probably aren't moving up into first round territory from third round territory after 7 months.

What does this mean? So if I say I had Ilya Protas ranked #15 on my list and I had him ranked higher than every single person that I saw put out rankings, that would mean nothing has changed and he's always been this good and people just missed the boat?

Your last sentence doesn't make sense as a "rule of thumb" or anything. There is no quota that says teams are limited to one post-draft roster per pick.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You litteraly said Hutson was a 1st round pick and was drafted to low. So its possible for him to move up, but at the same time you Are arguing Protas havent moved up since its to early after draft.

Hutson was a first round caliber player in June. Protas was a third round, at best, caliber player in June. Nothing has changed with Hutson. Protas, on the other hand, has shown improvement. I don't know what's hard to understand about that.

But even if I was to grant this argument for you or whoever else didn't think Hutson was a first round caliber player a year ago, you do realize that players who aren't first round picks tend to take longer to get viewed in the same way as first round picks by most people? If you didn't think Hutson (or literally whoever drafted outside the first round) was first round caliber in June, there's a good chance you don't think it now. That's usually how it works, at least with the NHL evaluators.

Unless something seismic happens (like say being the best defensemen at the World Juniors as an 18 year old), you probably aren't going to move up from a non-first round pick into the first round just because you put up big scoring numbers for one season in junior. There are plenty of players drafted after the first round that are playing well. How many of them do you seriously believe will have moved up into first round territory?

I didnt say he was having better seasons than all of them. The other OHL guys I have seen some off and to me Protas have been better than all of them this year when I have watched. Also when the difference Get to the amount it is in points compared to a lot of the others I would say he is having a better season than the other OHL guys I mentioned and in the same area as Greentree production wise, but I have been more impressed with Protas when watching.

Another question is who projects to be a NHLer and there some of the other might still have a better chance to be a NHLer. Even with having a Worse season thats up to scouts to see if they think the weaknesses in the players game can be fixed and if their strengths Are good enough to also hold up at the NHL level. There Are several players who have dominated juniors, but not had tools good enough to make it in the NHL. That might be the case with Protas.

But I like Protas chances with his size and overall game and I think he have passed several of those I mentioned, but not all like I mentioned for example Eisermann which I think is defending his position.

Which of the OHL guys I mentioned do you think Are having a better season than Protas?

Here's the thing you don't seem to realize, draft slots don't work in the manner you suggest. Do you think the LA Kings are going to trade Greentree for Protas just because Protas on a random Thursday in January has a .05 better PPG? Of course not. They adjudged Protas to not be a first or second round selection (at least such that they didn't feel the need to pick him in one of those rounds). They also felt Greentree was the player they had to have at 26. Evaluations don't change that quickly, especially when the argument for one player is "well, he has a .05 better PPG on the same team" and essentially nothing else in his favor (prior seasons, how likely he is to project well to the NHL, where he was viewed for teams when it comes to the draft in June, etc.).

Is Protas potentially having a better season than some of those players you named? Yeah, maybe a few. Then again, I think you don't understand that it's not as easy as looking at the highest number in the scoring column to compare seasons. There are players that are playing at different levels you've compared, and then there are other factors like strength of team (Caps fans should know this with Parascak) that could lead one player to have higher stats than another and not necessarily be playing better. There are other factors like some players are not being picked primarily for scoring and others aren't. There are other factors like PPG is going to be an unfair measurement for players that primarily do their "scoring" through scoring goals.

Even if I grant you that he's having a better season than a few of them, you don't seem to recognize that teams don't change their minds that quickly and only regard 7 months of hockey and discard their view of the rest. Maybe Protas has moved up in the eyes of NHL evaluators, but it's probably not above the players they had as being two rounds better than him because he has a .05 better PPG this year in junior or something of that sort.

 

[cupface52]

Hutson was a first round caliber player in June. Protas was a third round, at best, caliber player in June. Nothing has changed with Hutson. Protas, on the other hand, has shown improvement. I don't know what's hard to understand about that.

But even if I was to grant this argument for you or whoever else didn't think Hutson was a first round caliber player a year ago, you do realize that players who aren't first round picks tend to take longer to get viewed in the same way as first round picks by most people? If you didn't think Hutson (or literally whoever drafted outside the first round) was first round caliber in June, there's a good chance you don't think it now. That's usually how it works, at least with the NHL evaluators.

Unless something seismic happens (like say being the best defensemen at the World Juniors as an 18 year old), you probably aren't going to move up from a non-first round pick into the first round just because you put up big scoring numbers for one season in junior. There are plenty of players drafted after the first round that are playing well. How many of them do you seriously believe will have moved up into first round territory?

Here's the thing you don't seem to realize, draft slots don't work in the manner you suggest. Do you think the LA Kings are going to trade Greentree for Protas just because Protas on a random Thursday in January has a .05 better PPG? Of course not. They adjudged Protas to not be a first or second round selection (at least such that they didn't feel the need to pick him in one of those rounds). They also felt Greentree was the player they had to have at 26. Evaluations don't change that quickly, especially when the argument for one player is "well, he has a .05 better PPG on the same team" and essentially nothing else in his favor (prior seasons, how likely he is to project well to the NHL, where he was viewed for teams when it comes to the draft in June, etc.).

Is Protas potentially having a better season than some of those players you named? Yeah, maybe a few. Then again, I think you don't understand that it's not as easy as looking at the highest number in the scoring column to compare seasons. There are players that are playing at different levels you've compared, and then there are other factors like strength of team (Caps fans should know this with Parascak) that could lead one player to have higher stats than another and not necessarily be playing better. There are other factors like some players are not being picked primarily for scoring and others aren't. There are other factors like PPG is going to be an unfair measurement for players that primarily do their "scoring" through scoring goals.

Even if I grant you that he's having a better season than a few of them, you don't seem to recognize that teams don't change their minds that quickly and only regard 7 months of hockey and discard their view of the rest. Maybe Protas has moved up in the eyes of NHL evaluators, but it's probably not above the players they had as being two rounds better than him because he has a .05 better PPG this year in junior or something of that sort.

You don't seem to realize that players are often ranked late picks in mid January only to vault into being ranked into the early rounds before the draft.

Players can improve their draft stock by 100+ picks in 5 months pre draft, but can't improve their stock 7 months post draft? You can't be serious.