Value of: Vladislav Gavrikov

[Gurglesons]

I've been banging this drum quite a bit with Chychrun on the Caps forums but I think unfortunately for Gavrikov all of his recent comps have taken fairly team friendly deals (or at least are valued less than you would think).

Theodore $7.425Mx7
Hanifin $7.35Mx8
Hronek $7.25Mx8
Dunn $7.35Mx4
Montour $7.14Mx7
Toews $7.25Mx7
H. Lindholm $6.5Mx8

Those are all guys who signed/extended recently towards the end of their UFA years and I would say are probably solid 2s but below average 1s on a contender. There's also a pretty clear grouping for (reputation wise at least) solid 3s but below average 2s as well:

Roy $5.75Mx6
Zadorov $5Mx6
Lindell $5.25Mx5
Pesce $5.5Mx6

Obviously we have no idea what the rising cap is going to look like or how it's going to affect negotiations. My guess is that Gavrikov will probably come in towards the lower end of that first group though, around $7Mx7.

Every single player in the 7 million range scores points. Gavrikov’s career high is 30 pts.

Honestly seems insane to me that people
think he’s getting 7x7.

 

[Kurrilino]

Full NMC + kings are going to make the playoffs = they aren’t trading him

Then he will leave for free like Roy

 

[qc14]

Every single player in the 7 million range scores points. Gavrikov’s career high is 30 pts.

Honestly seems insane to me that people
think he’s getting 7x7.

While I agree with you I think he'll score enough points this year and the cap will go up enough to push him into the low end of that group.

 

[Soul Assumption]

Every single player in the 7 million range scores points. Gavrikov’s career high is 30 pts.

Honestly seems insane to me that people
think he’s getting 7x7.

Vlasic got 7 million and that was 6 years ago. If we assume that Gavrikov is a top 5 defensive defenseman, 7x7 sounds very reasonable

 

[ViD]

Every single player in the 7 million range scores points. Gavrikov’s career high is 30 pts.

Honestly seems insane to me that people
think he’s getting 7x7.

I think he could definitely get a Slavin type contract

 

[Schmooley]

Every single player in the 7 million range scores points. Gavrikov’s career high is 30 pts.

Honestly seems insane to me that people
think he’s getting 7x7.

Hes just a really good player. Right now hes playing lights out on the top pair on his off side. Hes been a little more offensive this year but really hes meticulous in his own zone and is good at breaking up plays in the neutral zone.
He had an injury he played through the 2nd half of last year and it wasnt his best showing but hes back on his game.
Besides point production another knock is hes not brutally physical for how big and aggressive he plays. More that he just uses his stick and body to separate guys rather than throw hits.
Hes better than Roy and a lot of the #3 stay at home guys but may not have the impact of the big point producers
Toews is a good comparable and he should get around that money give or take.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I've been banging this drum quite a bit with Chychrun on the Caps forums but I think unfortunately for Gavrikov all of his recent comps have taken fairly team friendly deals (or at least are valued less than you would think).

Theodore $7.425Mx7
Hanifin $7.35Mx8
Hronek $7.25Mx8
Dunn $7.35Mx4
Montour $7.14Mx7
Toews $7.25Mx7
H. Lindholm $6.5Mx8

Those are all guys who signed/extended recently towards the end of their UFA years and I would say are probably solid 2s but below average 1s on a contender. There's also a pretty clear grouping for (reputation wise at least) solid 3s but below average 2s as well:

Roy $5.75Mx6
Zadorov $5Mx6
Lindell $5.25Mx5
Pesce $5.5Mx6

Obviously we have no idea what the rising cap is going to look like or how it's going to affect negotiations. My guess is that Gavrikov will probably come in towards the lower end of that first group though, around $7Mx7.

Hanifin is probably a decent comparable. I'd expect something in that range

 

[go4hockey]

Thought he was a low key top 4 option next off-season. Didn’t realize how he was going off this year. Good for him betting on himself. Will have to pay attention to an LA game in the new year.

With Doughty out all year so far he has played RD his off side and on the 1st pair and has been really good.

 

[Gurglesons]

Vlasic got 7 million and that was 6 years ago. If we assume that Gavrikov is a top 5 defensive defenseman, 7x7 sounds very reasonable

Who views Gavrikov as a top 5 defenseman?

Vlasic also had the luck of putting up 39 points in 67 games right before that contract.

Vlasic also put up as many goals as Gavrikov in his entirety in LA in one season in 17-18.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

While I agree with you I think he'll score enough points this year and the cap will go up enough to push him into the low end of that group.

I think that's the real 'x' factor vs. the comps, which are otherwise great, plus as you mention many were seen as leaving some money on the table

I think he's closer to 8, maybe like 7.75x7.

 

[qc14]

I think that's the real 'x' factor vs. the comps, which are otherwise great, plus as you mention many were seen as leaving some money on the table

I think he's closer to 8, maybe like 7.75x7.

Yea I'm fascinated to see what happens with all the extra money next year and guys like Gavrikov will be a good case study. By percentage it should be the big money players benefitting the most but my guess is that because GMs can't help themselves it will actually be the guys currently making like $2M-$4M that will see the most movement as those are the ones that almost every team theoretically can be bidding on.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think that's the real 'x' factor vs. the comps, which are otherwise great, plus as you mention many were seen as leaving some money on the table

I think he's closer to 8, maybe like 7.75x7.

8 mil AAV? From who?

 

[FSL KINGS]

8 mil AAV? From who?

Buffalo & NYR comes to mind.

 

[Gurglesons]

Buffalo & NYR comes to mind.

Buffalo is going to have 3 LHD making 8+

NYR moves off Trouba to bring in Gavrikov at 8?

You guys are insane....

 

[Fro]

CBJ should have never let him go

 

[FSL KINGS]

Buffalo is going to have 3 LHD making 8+

NYR moves off Trouba to bring in Gavrikov at 8?

You guys are insane....

Gavrikov has been playing the Right all season. It would be better for buffalo to get a RD, but passing a top pair defender that plays the right would be a mistake.

Also, Pens would be better moving one of Letang or Karlsson & signing Gavrikov at 8.

 

[Gurglesons]

Gavrikov has been playing the Right all season. It would be better for buffalo to get a RD, but passing a top pair defender that plays the right would be a mistake.

Also, Pens would be better moving one of Letang or Karlsson & signing Gavrikov at 8.

Just because he plays the right doesn’t
make him a RHD.

Also, is Mikey Anderson following him? If a team pays Gavrikov 8 mil that will immediately be one of the worst if not the worst contracts in the league.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

8 mil AAV? From who?

Do you think the comps are bad?

If so, then you don't recognize his ability.

If not, then it doesn't particularly matter 'from who,' as the market has been set and is escalating, and his current team needs him.

He's making nearly 6 right now, you don't think he makes 7+ on a long term deal in an escalating market with multiple bidders as his play has been outstanding? That's fine, 'laughing' at all my posts isn't reasoning.

Just because he plays the right doesn’t
make him a RHD.

Also, is Mikey Anderson following him? If a team pays Gavrikov 8 mil that will immediately be one of the worst if not the worst contracts in the league.

Christ, you're being intentionally obtuse. I said "closer to 8 [than those comps]".

There will be multiple bidders driving the price up for the Kings who are up shit creek without a paddle without him. 7s is hardly a raise worth all this combativeness.

 

[Gurglesons]

Do you think the comps are bad?

If so, then you don't recognize his ability.

If not, then it doesn't particularly matter 'from who,' as the market has been set and is escalating, and his current team needs him.

He's making nearly 6 right now, you don't think he makes 7+ on a long term deal in an escalating market with multiple bidders as his play has been outstanding? That's fine, 'laughing' at all my posts isn't reasoning.



Christ, you're being intentionally obtuse. I said "closer to 8 [than those comps]".

There will be multiple bidders driving the price up for the Kings who are up shit creek without a paddle without him. 7s is hardly a raise worth all this combativeness.

No. I would be absolutely shocked if he makes 7.75-8 million on a long term deal.

If he pulls an Orlov and signs for 2 years maybe.

But all of the comps that have been made are way more offensively oriented than Gavrikov.

Skeji got 7 mil after putting up 10+ goals and 40+ points. Why is Gavrikov getting more when he’s been a 30ish pt guy?

 

[FSL KINGS]

No. I would be absolutely shocked if he makes 7.75-8 million on a long term deal.

If he pulls an Orlov and signs for 2 years maybe.

But all of the comps that have been made are way more offensively oriented than Gavrikov.

Skeji got 7 mil after putting up 10+ goals and 40+ points. Why is Gavrikov getting more when he’s been a 30ish pt guy?

There is a shortage of defenseman that you want playing against other teams top lines & multiple teams ready to get into a bidding war for them. Especially ones looking to make the post season.

6.5 would be great. King's could probably push to low 7's. If Gavrikov makes UFA, 8 wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

No. I would be absolutely shocked if he makes 7.75-8 million on a long term deal.

If he pulls an Orlov and signs for 2 years maybe.

But all of the comps that have been made are way more offensively oriented than Gavrikov.

Skeji got 7 mil after putting up 10+ goals and 40+ points. Why is Gavrikov getting more when he’s been a 30ish pt guy?

Because those 10 extra points are almost wholly simply a function of Skjei being on the power play and Gavrikov is putting up his 30 solely at even strength vs. top competition often on the wrong side while also PKing?

Gavrikov enables your offensive guys to do that.

I would be shocked if he got less than 7 and if he does it's because he signs like 6.75x8 with the Kings. Now whether I want that or not is a different story, but it would be silly to look past his abilities.

 

[Gurglesons]

Because those 10 extra points are almost wholly simply a function of Skjei being on the power play and Gavrikov is putting up his 30 solely at even strength vs. top competition often on the wrong side while also PKing?

Gavrikov enables your offensive guys to do that.

I would be shocked if he got less than 7 and if he does it's because he signs like 6.75x8 with the Kings. Now whether I want that or not is a different story, but it would be silly to look past his abilities.

Gavrikov put up 32 points once in his career at even strength.

Is Marcus Pettersson getting paid 7x7 too because he put up 30 points at even strength last year and plays big defensive minutes?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Gavrikov put up 32 points once in his career at even strength.

Is Marcus Pettersson getting paid 7x7 too because he put up 30 points at even strength last year and plays big defensive minutes?

And Skjei has put up over 40 points only once in his career but here you are building an entire house on it. Hell he's even on pace for fewer than Gavrikov this year.

It's almost as if you're evaluating him on more than one season's point total...

Now try it with Gavi. You'll get it.

I don't know enough about Pettersson to make that assessment. Maybe he will in the new cap world? Has he spent extended time as a #1 dman on multiple teams, including playing his offside, while playing heavy PK minutes, and gotten strong results, including being on a #1PK and defensive team in the league? If so, then yeah, probably. If not, and you're making a dishonest argument, then you know the answer. But really, the bigger problem seems to be that you're trying to evaluate defensive-leaning d-men on raw point totals, which is not going to end with you understanding his worth.