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Blue Jays Discussion: Vladdy has signed 14 yr/500mil

Blitzkrug said:
I get the feeling Nimmala's development is probably what plays the biggest factor in if Bo stays or goes.
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I doubt it. Nimmala is likely at least 3 years off being in the mix for the Jays at the MLB level, who knows what changes in that time frame, and having a few guys who could conceivably play SS is a great problem to have. You're not going to brush off Bichette because maybe Nimmala is the team's starter at short in 2029 or whatever. You keep Bichette and by the time Nimmala is ready to come up you can figure out a place for all of them at that point.

Because what happens if the team says "yeah, we've got our SS of the future" and lets Bichette walk at season's end, then Nimmala gets to AA and gets eaten alive by better pitching and suddenly they have to question how much his bat will carry at the MLB level?
 
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Bjindaho said:
Just because they let multiple people contribute doesn't mean that they aren't heavily based on the RPI power rankings (which has Toronto 19th FWIW)
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Ah, well using it as a component of the decision-making is a lot different than "they use a formula to determine them".

But also, in trying to find anything that explained the methodology, I learned that RPI is an ESPN thing. Are you sure you're not mixing up ESPN and MLB.com?
 
Discoverer said:
Ah, well using it as a component of the decision-making is a lot different than "they use a formula to determine them".

But also, in trying to find anything that explained the methodology, I learned that RPI is an ESPN thing. Are you sure you're not mixing up ESPN and MLB.com?
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I believe that I poorly explained (and mislead with the rpi). There are objective reasons for a division leader to be 15th (low RD on a middling schedule). Mlb's writers can use whatever criteria they want but their rating suggests that RPI is either a consideration or something similar is.
 
Bjindaho said:
I believe that I poorly explained (and mislead with the rpi). There are objective reasons for a division leader to be 15th (low RD on a middling schedule). Mlb's writers can use whatever criteria they want but their rating suggests that RPI is either a consideration or something similar is.
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I don't love the idea that this is a 'middling schedule', Coming into the season it was unanimous that the Blue Jays first month was among the hardest they'd see all year. Just because those teams aren't flying out of the gate (partly because they've lost games to the Jays), doesn't mean they've been playing bottom feeders.

I'm not in love with how the Jays have played this year, but to discredit it entirely is wild.
 
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dangomon said:
I don't love the idea that this is a 'middling schedule', Coming into the season it was unanimous that the Blue Jays first month was among the hardest they'd see all year. Just because those teams aren't flying out of the gate (partly because they've lost games to the Jays), doesn't mean they've been playing bottom feeders.

I'm not in love with how the Jays have played this year, but to discredit it entirely is wild.
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Sorry, this is a "statistical" middling schedule. I am not arguing that the Jays' schedule isn't hard. The math says that the Jays' opponents and the Jays' opponents' opponents have been weaker than most because of actual performance. In a small sample, this is noise.
 
Bjindaho said:
Sorry, this is a "statistical" middling schedule. I am not arguing that the Jays' schedule isn't hard. The math says that the Jays' opponents and the Jays' opponents' opponents have been weaker than most because of actual performance. In a small sample, this is noise.
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"This is noise" is a perfect summation and I couldn't agree more. Which is why writers of articles should factor this in and use common sense when assessing things like schedule strength and how it impacts a teams underlying numbers, record, etc.

If you and I both understand this, they certainly do as well.
 
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dangomon said:
"This is noise" is a perfect summation and I couldn't agree more. Which is why writers of articles should factor this in and use common sense when assessing things like schedule strength and how it impacts a teams underlying numbers, record, etc.

If you and I both understand this, they certainly do as well.
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Yeah, it's weird. Three weeks ago we looked at their opening schedule (a couple series against Baltimore, Boston, Mets, one relatively weak opponent in Washington) and it was obviously going to be a really tough start. Now Baltimore and Boston are off to rough starts and these analysts are like "Yeah, but the Jays schedule has been easy".
 
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The Nemesis said:
I doubt it. Nimmala is likely at least 3 years off being in the mix for the Jays at the MLB level, who knows what changes in that time frame, and having a few guys who could conceivably play SS is a great problem to have. You're not going to brush off Bichette because maybe Nimmala is the team's starter at short in 2029 or whatever. You keep Bichette and by the time Nimmala is ready to come up you can figure out a place for all of them at that point.

Because what happens if the team says "yeah, we've got our SS of the future" and lets Bichette walk at season's end, then Nimmala gets to AA and gets eaten alive by better pitching and suddenly they have to question how much his bat will carry at the MLB level?
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Fair points. Probably looked too deep into it.
 
Another awful start for Bloss with 7ER in 2.2IP and 0-fer for Martinez in Buffalo, Clase continues to hit though so if Springer hits the IL he could get the call. Other than health the biggest thing the Jays need is for someone to have it click and become a blue chip prospect. They spent a lot on Bonilla so hoping he can rebound this year, plus they need to hit with pick 8.
 
Tony Romo said:
Jays really need to crush this upcoming draft to start revamping the prospect pool.
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If they can figure out a way to get Bo and Varsho re-signed, this becomes a whole lot less important in a hurry.

Right now, they have the ability to let Roden, Loperfido, Clase try to fight their way up in the outfield, Martinez, Jimenez, Barger in the infield (possibly with outfield as well) and the pitching prospects.
 
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landy92mack29 said:
Another awful start for Bloss with 7ER in 2.2IP and 0-fer for Martinez in Buffalo, Clase continues to hit though so if Springer hits the IL he could get the call. Other than health the biggest thing the Jays need is for someone to have it click and become a blue chip prospect. They spent a lot on Bonilla so hoping he can rebound this year, plus they need to hit with pick 8.
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Bloss’ start has surprised me. He looked good his last two appearances in spring training.
 
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canucksfan said:
Bloss’ start has surprised me. He looked good his last two appearances in spring training.
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Bloss made some mechanical changes and has been struggling since. He added velocity, but lost control. Either he will figure out how to work it out as-is, or the Jays will tinker again.
 
Bjindaho said:
If they can figure out a way to get Bo and Varsho re-signed, this becomes a whole lot less important in a hurry.

Right now, they have the ability to let Roden, Loperfido, Clase try to fight their way up in the outfield, Martinez, Jimenez, Barger in the infield (possibly with outfield as well) and the pitching prospects.
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for sure. But allows us to trade for players to fill the roster or fill roster spots with cheaper players while we spend big on others.
 
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Rough night on the farm.
AAA BUF Bloss fell apart in the third. Paxton Schulz did not help, allowing all three of Bloss’ inherited runners to score. Bygone prospect Will Robertson the only bright light with a HR and 2b. Prospect bats not thriving.
AA NH wasted a good start by Ryan Watson. Ryan Jennings surrendered the lead allowing a 3run shot in the 8th. Offense scuffling here too. Jace Bohrofen hit a solo shot. Eddison Paulino had an rbi double and an.
A+ VAN rough night on the mound with the exception of Kai Peterson. Offence led by Victor Arias 3-4 with a 2b and Arjun Nimmala’s 2-5 with a 2b.
A DUN didn’t have enough sticks. Decent start from Cody Holcombe with 2er and 7ks over 5ip. Cade Doughty sighting - rehab I presume - 0-2 with a bb and sb.
 
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Man the nl west division is crazy. The diamondbacks have the same 11 7 record to start as the Yankees who lead the al east. Problem for them is that they are in 4th in the nl west lol. That division is bonkers
 
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It's funny that we thought April would be the hardest month schedule wise. And based on last year's records, it is. But so far, we've played six series, and only one of those teams is above .500. Baseball is funny sometimes. Atlanta and Baltimore have started slow.

Atlanta: 5–13
Baltimore: 7–10 (x2)
Washington: 7–11
Boston: 10–10
Mets: 11–7
 
dangomon said:
I don't love the idea that this is a 'middling schedule', Coming into the season it was unanimous that the Blue Jays first month was among the hardest they'd see all year. Just because those teams aren't flying out of the gate (partly because they've lost games to the Jays), doesn't mean they've been playing bottom feeders.

I'm not in love with how the Jays have played this year, but to discredit it entirely is wild.
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Yeah not buying it either. Atlanta although really struggling early won the W.S a few years back, Baltimore made the playoffs last year, Boston is always tough. The Mets went to the W.S two years ago and have spent like a billion dollars on their roster. Sorry I’m also not buying “this is a middling schedule” Jays have had one of the toughest schedules early on here and done a pretty damn good job getting through it. Only 1/2 a game back for the division and sit in the first WC spot. It’s a success

What I really find fascinating with Toronto fans in general whether it’s the Leafs /Jays/Raptors etc is we are so negative. So easy to rip our teams apart yet it takes a whole lot to give them credit. This team deserves some credit here. Pitching has been outstanding, and the power is slowly showing signs of waking up. 11-8 so far is pretty solid
 
Jays are 7th in hitter fWAR but 16th in runs. 6th best OBP and 25th best hard hit ball rate. They are an average team in Average and OBP with RISP and 24th in slugging. Basically, the advanced stats say that the team has been relatively unlucky in terms of scoring but that the power is in line with the contact profile.

Adding any power will obviously quickly improve run scoring, but a little bit more patience with RISP will also dramatically improve their results (part of the problem is likely that a lot of the AB are happening with guys coming up in these scenarios who may not be with the club in a few weeks unless they heat up).
 
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