Blue Jays Discussion: Vlad Jr wait/watch II: Watch Harder

[Discoverer]

I would agree that the success of Vladdy Jr. along with his tools puts him in a whole different tier from Bichette and the rest. Plus I think Jansen is good enough to be in a similar tier to Bichette considering the dearth of value at the catcher position in the majors currently. The definition for Tier 1 is as follows though: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years. I can see the case for the writer to consider only Vladdy Jr. and Bichette having that sort of consistent upside.

Fair enough. Apparently I missed that part. I just figured Bichette and Jansen were closer to the same level than Vlad and Bichette.

So I guess with that in mind I would change my quibble to the fact that Jansen belongs in that top tier. He's going to be a star. I don't know that he'll get quite enough playing time, but if I does I expect him to be a top 10 catcher in the league in 2019.

 

[BlueForever75]

No reason to not believe that Jansen will be a top 10 catcher in the MLB this season. He will get majority of reps behind the plate for the Jays this season. And from what he showed last season, there is no reason that he cannot be a top 10 catcher.

 

[phillipmike]

Jansen can and should be a top 10 catcher in 2019 if he is healthy and gets the reps.

There is a lot to be excited about which FG displays in his 2.3 WAR projection in just 90 games. In the last 20 years only 14 rookie catchers have put up 2.3 WAR or more;

Major League Leaderboards » 2018 » Catchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

If you squint, his rookie projections look similar to rookie Russell Martin.

 

[phillipmike]

I knew we werent going to get him but i did like him as a low risk high reward. 2M with 3M in incentives isnt a bad investment at all.

 

[phillipmike]

Jaime Garcia retires

 

[canucksfan]

Toronto Blue Jays 2019 Top 50 Prospects | Prospects1500

List of top 50 Blue Jays prospects. Not a lot of analysis with it but it is a decent recap and one I thought was worth sharing.

I don’t understand why Warmoth is so high on lists.

Also Vancouver will have some interesting players to watch and that doesn’t include any potential draft picks either.

 

[habamillions]

Odd Grandal signed a 1yr deal with the brewers. Guess he will give it another go next offseason

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

2019 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[phillipmike]

2019 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays | FanGraphs Baseball

"Best part" is we have 2 Gregg Zauns in the system - Jansen and McGuire. They can restart the Manalyst.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

"Best part" is we have 2 Gregg Zauns in the system - Jansen and McGuire. They can restart the Manalyst.

Frankly one was too many.

Kind of weird to fire the scouting team that compiled one of the best farm systems in baseball.

Bridges should be hired, by someone, asap.

 

[NeverGoingToWin]

Arbitrator rules for Braves in Stewart grievance

 

[dredeye]

Frankly one was too many.



Kind of weird to fire the scouting team that compiled one of the best farm systems in baseball.

Bridges should be hired, by someone, asap.

I’d have no issue with the jays grabbing some of them for those exact reasons

 

[TF97]

 

[Woodman19]

Could be another Oh type of acquisition.

 

[Amadeus]

Can't complain.

 

[thehockeysong]

Arbitrator rules for Braves in Stewart grievance

Would've been nice to move up a spot, but sort of figured they would win. Would be fairly embarrassing to mess that up.

 

[habamillions]

I like the phelps signing. Will fit in nicely with being out all of last season. But cant be worse then clippard in 7th inning role, IF healthy

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[ryno23]

saw this article this morning very interesting. Stark: Does baseball's slow free-agent market hurt...

Debates the value of splurging on big FA vs how teams are using analytics to value FA signings but might be turning fans off and hurting attendance. Do you go out and sign Bonds, A-Rod and see attendance spike maybe at the cost of a bad contract down the road or not the huge wins expected. Do teams need to put the hope back into the offseason in order to bring more fans back to the ballpark vs using analytics nowadays and forgoing emotions in signing high price FA talent.

Should the Jays go after a Harper or Machado or maybe go after guys the next tier say a Keuchel an AJ Pollock some of the better players and get fans excited and hoping that will result in a bump in attendance which then leads to more revenue the following year which can lead to payroll being increased due to strong attendance.

For the Jays fans this year what really is going to motivate them to buy tickets....what moves have been made to say hey I think this team could surprise and be on the rise and I should buy a flex pack or a season seats.

Would signing Harper or Machado even Keuchel or AJ Pollock with the addition of Vlad be enough to get people back the seat to bring in more revenue then allow the rebuild to speed up a bit. Adding a Keuchel to the rotation would really help but you might get burned in year 4 or 5 if you went that long. Pollock would be an upgrade injuries notwithstanding. The market has slowed to the point where a very good offer from a team might entice some of these players to come here vs earlier in the offseason.

Even in a rebuild year you can still have FA who might be a luxury in year 1 but are there for years 2,3,4.

Love to hear the thoughts on the article more than my interpretation

 

[AllDay28]

it is kinda weird how slow FA has been this yr. Most sports are completely wrapped up by now. That said most sports dont have these high profile, 30+ mil multi year deals to worry about (except QB in the NFL now) so that definitely would slow the process down.

 

[Garlando]

saw this article this morning very interesting. Stark: Does baseball's slow free-agent market hurt...

Debates the value of splurging on big FA vs how teams are using analytics to value FA signings but might be turning fans off and hurting attendance. Do you go out and sign Bonds, A-Rod and see attendance spike maybe at the cost of a bad contract down the road or not the huge wins expected. Do teams need to put the hope back into the offseason in order to bring more fans back to the ballpark vs using analytics nowadays and forgoing emotions in signing high price FA talent.

Should the Jays go after a Harper or Machado or maybe go after guys the next tier say a Keuchel an AJ Pollock some of the better players and get fans excited and hoping that will result in a bump in attendance which then leads to more revenue the following year which can lead to payroll being increased due to strong attendance.

For the Jays fans this year what really is going to motivate them to buy tickets....what moves have been made to say hey I think this team could surprise and be on the rise and I should buy a flex pack or a season seats.

Would signing Harper or Machado even Keuchel or AJ Pollock with the addition of Vlad be enough to get people back the seat to bring in more revenue then allow the rebuild to speed up a bit. Adding a Keuchel to the rotation would really help but you might get burned in year 4 or 5 if you went that long. Pollock would be an upgrade injuries notwithstanding. The market has slowed to the point where a very good offer from a team might entice some of these players to come here vs earlier in the offseason.

Even in a rebuild year you can still have FA who might be a luxury in year 1 but are there for years 2,3,4.

Love to hear the thoughts on the article more than my interpretation

To me, the only guys that can potentially move the needle attendance wise in this FA market are Harper and Machado. Both are major faces of the game and major talents, and signing one of them along with the Vladdy Jr. coming up next year probably creates some intrigue in the local market helps out attendance for sure. How much it helps, I don't know but I'm sure there are models that can project potential value gained or lost in a deal like that. Keuchel or Pollock though? Nah, they aren't needle movers and the fans aren't stupid...the fans know that a Keuchel or Pollock signing wouldn't make this team a real contender and at the end of the day, fans care about winning ball clubs. I mean you sign Keuchel and maybe move the team from a 73 win club to a 76 win club...big whoop. Sign both, look the Jays are still a sub 80-win team in a division with 3 really good teams. And then you mentioned that you might get burned by year 4 or year 5 of those potential deals...that's prime competitive window time that you're prepared to carry an anchor on? Nah, pass on that opportunity and look to find less risk on the FA market and underrated value off the FA market.

Also, going back to a potential Harper or Machado signing, both are going to super expensive financially, especially for the Jays in an economy that the USD is worth a lot more then the CAD. Plus neither Harper nor Machado likely have a lot of interest coming to TO anyway with the current state of the team and how little is proven. More needs to be in place for FAs like that to consider signing here, and more needs to be in place before investing that sort of money imo. Timing wise, I just don't see the fit for either side.

 

[Kurtz]

saw this article this morning very interesting. Stark: Does baseball's slow free-agent market hurt...

Debates the value of splurging on big FA vs how teams are using analytics to value FA signings but might be turning fans off and hurting attendance. Do you go out and sign Bonds, A-Rod and see attendance spike maybe at the cost of a bad contract down the road or not the huge wins expected. Do teams need to put the hope back into the offseason in order to bring more fans back to the ballpark vs using analytics nowadays and forgoing emotions in signing high price FA talent.

Should the Jays go after a Harper or Machado or maybe go after guys the next tier say a Keuchel an AJ Pollock some of the better players and get fans excited and hoping that will result in a bump in attendance which then leads to more revenue the following year which can lead to payroll being increased due to strong attendance.

For the Jays fans this year what really is going to motivate them to buy tickets....what moves have been made to say hey I think this team could surprise and be on the rise and I should buy a flex pack or a season seats.

Would signing Harper or Machado even Keuchel or AJ Pollock with the addition of Vlad be enough to get people back the seat to bring in more revenue then allow the rebuild to speed up a bit. Adding a Keuchel to the rotation would really help but you might get burned in year 4 or 5 if you went that long. Pollock would be an upgrade injuries notwithstanding. The market has slowed to the point where a very good offer from a team might entice some of these players to come here vs earlier in the offseason.

Even in a rebuild year you can still have FA who might be a luxury in year 1 but are there for years 2,3,4.

Love to hear the thoughts on the article more than my interpretation

I think that we have demonstrated that our attendance won't be drastically altered by gimmick or even star free agent signings, yet we will show up in droves and set attendance records as soon as the team is actually competitive.

If you're Jays management, you have to be thrilled by that. Do your job well, and you will be adequately rewarded; don't deliver a winner, and you'll have empty seats. What could be more fair to them than that?

Vladdy Jr is a wrinkle in this equation however. We've never had a prospect as hyped as this, and it's an entirely new variable. Perhaps the attendance will spike on his back alone.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[ryno23]

I think that we have demonstrated that our attendance won't be drastically altered by gimmick or even star free agent signings, yet we will show up in droves and set attendance records as soon as the team is actually competitive.

If you're Jays management, you have to be thrilled by that. Do your job well, and you will be adequately rewarded; don't deliver a winner, and you'll have empty seats. What could be more fair to them than that?

Vladdy Jr is a wrinkle in this equation however. We've never had a prospect as hyped as this, and it's an entirely new variable. Perhaps the attendance will spike on his back alone.

Winning always feeds attendance. Fans fall in love with stars in Toronto though it brings people to the park.

The Jays were 50-51 and nothing special about them I remember waiting to buy tickets to the Oakland series in middle Aug. I was going to buy $8 off stubhub. Then the Tulo and Price deals happended and the Attendance spike and people started coming out. Tickets shot up to $50 and the dome was selling out again. Attendance rose almost 20k a game.

Team wasn't competitive at 50-51 but then 2 stars show up Tulo and Price and then attendance rises 20k a night. I think Vlad alone can repeat some of this but if you added a premier guy as well not only does it help in the stands but on the field.