Vince Dunn

[LGB]

The Blues have a lot of decisions to make on the left side of our defense this offseason with Bouw, Edmunson, and Gunnarson all on expiring contracts. Dunn has really impressed me this year, and I think he is ready for a top 4 role next season. The offensive upside is obvious and right now he is producing 0.45 P/GP, second only to Petro at 0.54 P/GP, with almost 7 minutes less TOI. Though I must say that he has a higher % of O-zone starts and no PK time inflating his TOI, but also less PP time.

The only question would be is he defensively ready for top 4 minutes, as he has been sheltered a bit (O-zone starts, possibly easier matchups), and is susceptible to the occasional bad turnover or dumb play. I would argue that is to be expected with an offensive defenseman that takes more risks with the puck especially since he is so young, and is outweighed by the offense he produces.

What role do you guys think he should start next year in, and what do you think his potential is 5 years down the road?

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[Vladys Gumption]

Dunn screams Shattenkirk type player to me. Adequate to average in the defensive zone, with a lot of offensive upside. Good power play QB as well. Although I think he definitely plays with more of an edge than Shatty and is a better skater.

He's not necessarily an all-situations workhorse but he's going to drive the offense and won't kill you defensively on 5v5.

 

[MissouriMook]

As far as his role next year, I'll offer my opinion with a bit of an indirect answer. I'm fine with Dunn in a Top 4 role next year and I'm fine with Eddy in a Top 4 role next year, but I don't think we should have both in our Top 4. I would prefer to go outside the organization to add a legit 1/2 or 2/3 LD so that Dunn and Eddy can play down in the lineup.

As far as his potential down the road, I don't know that he will be the next Duncan Keith like we hoped he might. Development isn't linear, but I don't think he made enough strides this year to have that expectation still on the table. I think in 5 years he will an excellent 3/4 guy who puts up 12g/33a/45p on the regular and plays average to slightly above average D.

 

[LETSGOBLUES88]

Dunner's stick handling and puck control has always been impressive to me when he's on his game.....but that's just it, as expectations go I'd LOVE to see last night's version of Vince Dunn every game, thats truly closer to his potential.....and considering Berube used to coach him and there's a familiarity that has returned maybe he's finally settling in to that potential

 

[LGB]

As far as his role next year, I'll offer my opinion with a bit of an indirect answer. I'm fine with Dunn in a Top 4 role next year and I'm fine with Eddy in a Top 4 role next year, but I don't think we should have both in our Top 4. I would prefer to go outside the organization to add a legit 1/2 or 2/3 LD so that Dunn and Eddy can play down in the lineup.

Definitely agree with this.

Dunn screams Shattenkirk type player to me.

I think he'll be a better 5v5 player than Shatty. 75% of goals and 82% of assists this season are 5v5. 2nd on the defense in +/- behind Parayko.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I still think there’s a Duncan Keith-lite potential to him. He won’t be a hall of fame player, but I believe in him.

 

[shpongle falls]

I really like Dunn's upside. He struggled early in the year but has been in the zone lately. He's got some moxie and is a great skater and he has a good wrister and slapper that he can get on net more often than not. I don't know if he's ready for top 4 minutes next year but even if he's not he'll still be an asset on defense. He'll be a mainstay for the Blues d-core for a long time.

 

[simon IC]

He is only 22, and despite struggling (especially defensively!) this season, it is far too early to categorize Dunn. While I agree that there are similarities to Shattenkirk's style of play, I hope he doesn't follow that line of development. I would like to see Dunn hone his defensive game and become a more rounded, two-way player. He has all the tools. It is up to him to provide the effort to become more than a one-dimensional player.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

I still think there’s a Duncan Keith-lite potential to him. He won’t be a hall of fame player, but I believe in him.

That was my thought when we first drafted him, seeing his mobility and patience with the puck and ability to create space. Dunn seems like a nice kid and not a dbag like Keith

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

I was just looking at some advanced stats over a certain time frame (since December 2, when the Sharks made a system change). Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson were both at the top of all defensemen for pretty much every single star, but the one other player near the top in every list, and actually beat out Burns/Karlsson in some of them. That defenseman was Vince Dunn. Small sample size and I’m basing this off nothing but numbers, but I think he’s going to be a future superstar in the NHL.

 

[A Real Barn Burner]

I was just looking at some advanced stats over a certain time frame (since December 2, when the Sharks made a system change). Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson were both at the top of all defensemen for pretty much every single star, but the one other player near the top in every list, and actually beat out Burns/Karlsson in some of them. That defenseman was Vince Dunn. Small sample size and I’m basing this off nothing but numbers, but I think he’s going to be a future superstar in the NHL.

Can you enlighten us on the system change the sharks went through? Haven’t followed them closely this year due to the Blues start of the season putting me off watching hockey.

What metrics was dunn close to them in or leading? Just offensive ones or defensive as well?

 

[542365]

I think he's a guy you absolutely have to hold on to. His offensive production is excellent for a 22 year old Dman. He still has a lot to learn, but with his skating and offensive instincts, you have to put up with the growing pains. 22 year old Brent Burns put up 43 points in 82 games(and I believe he was still playing forward at times during that season as well) and Dunn is on pace for 38 points this year. Both guys played in the AHL in their D+2 seasons and Dunn's production was better. Brent Burns is a phenomenal offensive Dman and I don't think Dunn ever touches that level, but Dunn's production in his early career is not average. It's not normal for a Dman that young and I think we can all agree that when Dunn is on his game he's an animal out there. We have to keep him around. I don't know that he's ready for a full time top 4 role next year, but I'd be willing to give him a shot.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

I still think there’s a Duncan Keith-lite potential to him. He won’t be a hall of fame player, but I believe in him.

I don't think we need to take disparaging shots against the character of our own players like that. C'mon Vinnie.

 

[Renard]

He can gain the offensive zone on the power play with his speed and puck handling skill. He is the best D-man we have at that aspect of the game.

I hope he stays with the Blues a long time.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

I'd be darn happy if Dunn became a left-handed Shattenkirk. I have always liked Shattenkirk, and I never thought he was bad defensively. If Dunn can be that effective as a defenseman, than the Blues will be in a good place with him, Parayko, and Pietrangelo.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

I like him a ton. His stats when paired with Parayko are alarmingly good. Edmundson-Pietrangelo Dunn-Parayko should be the top 4 and it's a great one.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Can you enlighten us on the system change the sharks went through? Haven’t followed them closely this year due to the Blues start of the season putting me off watching hockey.

What metrics was dunn close to them in or leading? Just offensive ones or defensive as well?

Since December 2nd, at 5V5 among defensemen with >400 minutes over that time frame:

Dunn is 2nd in P/60 (Karlsson 1st Burns 4th), 1st in CF% (Karlsson 2nd Burns 3rd), 1st in GF% (Karlsson 8th Burns 9th), 1st in HDCF% (Burns 14th Karlsson 15th).

The first one is an offensive metric based on how frequently he scores points when he is on the ice, the next 3 metrics are two-way metrics based on how well he controls the share of shot attempts, goals, and high danger chances when he is on the ice.

He is playing pretty soft minutes with 65.06% OZFO, only playing 13:29 per game, probably against 3rd tier competition. But he is still destroying the competition in every way. Those numbers are very impressive.

Regarding the Sharks system change, there were a few things but the most clear are that they reduced the frequency that defensemen pinch when the opponent has possession in their zone, the forwards have been more consistently committed to getting back and covering for pinching defensemen, and the offense has relied less on cycling back to the point and more on cycling down low.

 

[Dbrownss]

I find Dunn to be a better dman then Shattenkirk. That guy flat out blew dzone coverage and would get handled 1 on 1.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Since December 2nd, at 5V5 among defensemen with >400 minutes over that time frame:

Dunn is 2nd in P/60 (Karlsson 1st Burns 4th), 1st in CF% (Karlsson 2nd Burns 3rd), 1st in GF% (Karlsson 8th Burns 9th), 1st in HDCF% (Burns 14th Karlsson 15th).

The first one is an offensive metric based on how frequently he scores points when he is on the ice, the next 3 metrics are two-way metrics based on how well he controls the share of shot attempts, goals, and high danger chances when he is on the ice.

He is playing pretty soft minutes with 65.06% OZFO, only playing 13:29 per game, probably against 3rd tier competition. But he is still destroying the competition in every way. Those numbers are very impressive.

Regarding the Sharks system change, there were a few things but the most clear are that they reduced the frequency that defensemen pinch when the opponent has possession in their zone, the forwards have been more consistently committed to getting back and covering for pinching defensemen, and the offense has relied less on cycling back to the point and more on cycling down low.

This passes the eye test too. Dunn has really stepped up the past couple months. He's more aggressive offensively, less prone to turn-overs or bad decisions (although still has had a couple doozies) and stepping up his physical game. He knocked Kadri out of the last game with a hard legal hit entering the Blues' zone. With the team's defensive corps, he can take the more offensive shifts and leave the heavy lifting to other players. If he can bring offense and a physical edge, he'll have a place on the team for a long time.

I'd like to see him running the PP more effectively. The Blues PP has been a glaring weakness. I think those numbers will probably rise now, since the puck movement has been so much better, but they still could use an effective PP QB to keep it consistently productive.

 

[Oberyn]

I find Dunn to be a better dman then Shattenkirk. That guy flat out blew dzone coverage and would get handled 1 on 1.

Shattenkirk was an absolute wizard on the PP though. Dunn's shown some great progression in that area, but he's had some difficulty in getting shots past the first layer of defense. He needs to be better at shooting the puck through traffic which was something Shattenkirk was excellent at.

 

[Dbrownss]

I don't kill Dunn too much for not QB'in the PP as it generally looks terrible.

 

[Brian39]

I'm not ready to forecast the exact roles of the LHD next year, but I agree with Mook that I'm not comfortable writing Dunn and Ed into the top 4 in ink. I'm still in favor of overpaying J-Bo on a 1 year, bonus laden deal so we can push this decision down the road a bit. Ideally, Ed and Dunn take the top 4 jobs due to their play and force J-Bo into being a good 3rd pairing guy who we can move on from when the cap gets tight in 2020/21. But Ed's play this year does not make that a given and I don't want to give both him and Dunn top 4 spots next year with no real safety net behind them.

Everyone here will absolutely hate the AAV it will take to get J-Bo on a 1 year deal, but we have the space to do it without impacting the rest of the roster.

 

[Stealth JD]

Dunn has been much better in his own end since Berube took over. I've been pleasantly surprised with his play and would consider him a core member of the defense moving forward, with Petro & Parayko. At least until he out-prices himself from the club's payroll structure. Hopefully he keeps improving in his own end...but that's something many guys seemingly aren't able to do.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Since December 2nd, at 5V5 among defensemen with >400 minutes over that time frame:

Dunn is 2nd in P/60 (Karlsson 1st Burns 4th), 1st in CF% (Karlsson 2nd Burns 3rd), 1st in GF% (Karlsson 8th Burns 9th), 1st in HDCF% (Burns 14th Karlsson 15th).

The first one is an offensive metric based on how frequently he scores points when he is on the ice, the next 3 metrics are two-way metrics based on how well he controls the share of shot attempts, goals, and high danger chances when he is on the ice.

He is playing pretty soft minutes with 65.06% OZFO, only playing 13:29 per game, probably against 3rd tier competition. But he is still destroying the competition in every way. Those numbers are very impressive.

Regarding the Sharks system change, there were a few things but the most clear are that they reduced the frequency that defensemen pinch when the opponent has possession in their zone, the forwards have been more consistently committed to getting back and covering for pinching defensemen, and the offense has relied less on cycling back to the point and more on cycling down low.

The crazy thing about the system changes you said the Sharks have made us that it sounds damn near identical to the changes the Blues have made.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Dunn has been much better in his own end since Berube took over. I've been pleasantly surprised with his play and would consider him a core member of the defense moving forward, with Petro & Parayko. At least until he out-prices himself from the club's payroll structure. Hopefully he keeps improving in his own end...but that's something many guys seemingly aren't able to do.

Honestly he looks fine defensively at least skill wise. His main issue has been when he looks completely lost and/or uncomfortable which generally means he looks like he’s second guessing where he should be (more of a system thing as opposed to an ability thing)