GDT: Vegas @ Washington | 1/24/22 | 7p ET

[caps4cup]

I love stats and I think they have their place. But I also think the eye test is important and we are not even close to those other teams.

Also we have had a really easy schedule so the fact we are at .500 against these opponents says something.

The eye test is important but I don’t recall a recent game where I legitimately thought the Caps got out played besides the away game in Boston. Every other game, it felt like they were in control and could’ve/should’ve won but some combination of poor goaltending/finishing and then an awful PP did them in.

The PP is the only thing that would be a system issue. The others are definitely skill related, but also involves a lot of luck and fluctuates throughout the season. Right now they can’t finish or make a save. The Caps are a top 10 finishing team and that is due to improve at some point. And the goaltending isn’t great but also isn’t as bad as its been the last 2 months.

I’m still at the point where I’m more concerned with how they’re controlling play at 5v5 (which has generally been very positive all season) than the standings. Admittedly, if this continues too much longer where they still aren’t putting wins together, I’ll worry. We’ll see. I’ll be surprised if they don’t turn it around soon though.

 

[notDkristich]

We have a power play, just like Jamaica has a bobsled team

 

[SpinningEdge]

Of the 5 power play goals the last 21 games - how many goals on ourselves (Hagelin) when we have a man advantage on a delayed penalty plus shorthanded goals have we given up? Do teams basically have the same chance of scoring vs us when we have a man advantage? LOL.

 

[Capsman]

Since 12/1, the Caps are 7-7-3. In that time frame, they have the 6th best 5v5 xG% in the league. Right behind Colorado and right ahead of Pittsburgh (the two top teams in point % during that time frame). Besides the Caps, the only other team in the top 12 in xG% during that time frame that has a point % below .667 is Calgary. For reference sake, if they had just that .667 point % in that time frame, the Caps would be in 1st place right now with 61 points and have the 4th best point % in the league.

Hot take, they’ll be fine. We saw Colorado, Toronto, and Pittsburgh all go through slow starts at the beginning of the season where they were playing well but had a low PDO and people were wondering what was wrong with them. Now, they can’t lose. Same thing is happening with the Caps right now.

The PP is an issue, as is goaltending (for now). They’re a very good 5v5 team though which is the best indicator of future (and playoff) success. It’s rough right now and it f***ing sucks that they’re losing but they’re really not playing poorly. Would much rather get this PDO/losing swoon and negative vibes out of the way right now than later in the season.

It would like to see those stats with this bad a PP. I see nothing whatsoever that suggests to me that this team will climb out of the bottom 5 on the PP. This isn’t a slump. They are approaching it like this is a fluke and more of the same will even things out statistically, so I have little hope in that regard. Yes 5x5 drives success but the PP is the lane centering technology. We have zero room for error in that regard, nothing that can get us on the right track when the rest of the game isn’t going well.
I actually like a lot of Levi’s game. The team plays with structure 5x5. But his distribution of minutes and bizarre tolerance of this PP’s architect (assuming he’s truly leaving it to Forsythe) is unconscionable. If we miss the playoffs or get bumped early, and we see more of the same in these areas, he should be fired.

 

[um]

Its so bizarre how bad our powerplay is. The talent out there should have this team in the top 16 powerplay percentage.

Its like the system we have is working against us, and all the players are so static and so predictable that they have no options to do anything.

 

[SherVaughn30]

The Caps suck, boys.

Let’s face it.

We can't face it because we lost the face-off!

 

[SpinningEdge]

Its so bizarre how bad our powerplay is. The talent out there should have this team in the top 16 powerplay percentage.

Its like the system we have is working against us, and all the players are so static and so predictable that they have no options to do anything.

Disagree.

Top 5.

 

[SherVaughn30]

We won 3 of our last 10 damn lol

Feels more like we have lost every game.

 

[PlushMinus]

In those last 17 games they have scored 44 goals. That's a GPG of 2.59 against the league avge of 3.05
In the first 26 games they scored 95 goals at 3.65 GPG.
That's a big drop in offence.

 

[txpd]

Feels more like we have lost every game.

Well, of course. Vanecek was the goalie in all 3 wins, so, they dont really count.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

PP sucks. Penalty killers are up there in taking penalties (sort of like arson-happy firemen). Lavi seems incapable of making adjustments, either directly or thru his assts. Personnel isn't all that bad.

Even though it would be out of character for Ted and perhaps BMac, maybe it's time to ditch the entire coaching staff.

 

[traparatus]

I love stats and I think they have their place. But I also think the eye test is important and we are not even close to those other teams.

Also we have had a really easy schedule so the fact we are at .500 against these opponents says something.

Caps have in fact had the 2nd easiest schedule in the league as of a last game.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Starting to think this coaching staff is full of incompetent boobs.

I guess the filters do not **** 'boobs.'

Caps have in fact had the 2nd easiest schedule in the league as of a last game.

Kinda like last season. The team feasted on teams like Buffalo early, and some posters continually pointed to their record suggesting the team was first-rate, even as poor play and Ls began to pile up as the season wore on. The eye test said "Trouble Ahead," and indeed another first round exit arrived, as it usually does in the spring.

 

[Rayquaza64]

Still at one regulation win for the month with two games to go.

is this good?

 

[kicksavedave]

is this good?

Could be worse

 

[Rayquaza64]

Could be worse

 

[caps4cup]

It would like to see those stats with this bad a PP. I see nothing whatsoever that suggests to me that this team will climb out of the bottom 5 on the PP. This isn’t a slump. They are approaching it like this is a fluke and more of the same will even things out statistically, so I have little hope in that regard. Yes 5x5 drives success but the PP is the lane centering technology. We have zero room for error in that regard, nothing that can get us on the right track when the rest of the game isn’t going well.
I actually like a lot of Levi’s game. The team plays with structure 5x5. But his distribution of minutes and bizarre tolerance of this PP’s architect (assuming he’s truly leaving it to Forsythe) is unconscionable. If we miss the playoffs or get bumped early, and we see more of the same in these areas, he should be fired.

PP is definitely the biggest concern right now. 5v5 play is the most important aspect of the game, but if you’re PP is this bad, it’s going to be a detriment.

As for some PP stats, here are some numbers:
21/22: 6.27 xGF/60 (22nd) 4.91 GF/60 9.14SH% (32nd)
Last 17 games: 6.2 xGF/60 3.05 GF/60 5.68 SH%

20/21: 6.72 xGF/60 (10th) 8.76 GF/60 15.64 SH% (8th)

19/20: 6.89 xGF/60 (12th) 6.56 GF/60 13.08 SH% (18th)

18/19: 6.9 xGF/60 (11th) 7.29 GF/60 14.41 SH% (11th)

17/18: 6.46 xGF/60 (25th) 8.32 GF/60 14.59 SH% (10th)

Tried to put the rankings for their expected goals and SH% to see how they ranked in creating chances and how well they finished.

As you can see, they’ve consistently been right around the top 10 in xGF/60 on the PP, with 2 outlier seasons (they were also 14th in 16/17 and 4th in 15/16).

I also have a hard time believing that a healthy Nick Backstrom this season doesn’t have their xGF/60 rate a little higher towards the 6.9 number they’ve consistently been around.

Regardless, their SH% is extremely low right now and although they haven’t been great at generating chances, the finishing is more so what’s doing them in. Going back since the start of 17/18, no team has had a lower PP SH% over the course of a full season than the Caps currently do. So pretty much, they’re a below average team at generating chances on the PP, with the worst SH% in the last 4 non-bubble seasons.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

I don't see it, they're not coming back. They have awful special teams (same PP%, worse PK% than us), and they don't score a lot at ES either. They have a hard schedule with a ton of games left against Tampa/Florida/Carolina/Toronto. We have a 96% chance of making the playoffs, Detroit has a 2% chance.

Me either, but you know the luck of Caps outside of 2018 !

 

[Langway]

They're 9-7-4 since 12/1, yes? The flipside to generally being competitive and in games is that you're not creating separation. It's just glorified dog fights and trench warfare. Many coaches revel in that and in some senses it prepares for the playoffs but the plot can get lost. They seem awfully close to it, mostly because they don't seem to know how to adapt whatsoever offensively. The focus isn't there on a finer skill level across the board, across all situations. Pretty much all of those 20 games have been tight. The early-season laughers are gone. Teams have tightened up and the Caps have been unable to fundamentally elevate their offensive game further. Not being able to own big moments offensively is arguably their biggest issue in the playoffs lately. Consistent quality chance generation was a huge issue against Boston last year. There's zero evidence suggesting it won't be again. If anything, it'll be worse. Running back the same script with no clue how to positively influence that area makes me not sweat their eventual fate. They deserve to be a bubble team and get floored by a fundamentally more ambitious outfit. At best they've got some good, veteran defensive structure but it's largely neutralized by being inefficient and unskilled offensively. The game is about finding advantages and I don't think Lavi is nearly nuanced enough, despite his experience, to find those areas to exploit. It's mostly just a lot of defensively-responsible caveman shit.

In more extended history their answer to lulls is to tighten up and lean on their finishing ability and/or special teams. But with special teams a gong-show, Oshie out and a Sprong not trusted, well, there's your recipe for extended mediocrity. It's like they want to fight with one hand tied behind their back and believe doing so is admirable. It's a joke. Great, you fought hard. Wouldn't you rather make it look easy once in a while? Skills still pay the bills.

 

[traparatus]

I agree with the general sentiment. One objection is that I do believe that Caps' defense is dramatically improved in terms of puck movement and advancing out of their own zone rapidly and under control.

The D-core has been drastically effected by circumstances and results have suffered. Some of the 'placeholders' have been less than ideal. Exhibit A, Kempny in this game. That was painful to watch.

When it comes to generating offense, I'm with you. There is no plan that I can see for generating sustained offensive zone pressure. To top it off, Eller, who has historically provided that cycling, long possession game, has transformed into a one-and-done, purely opportunistic player. Last thing this team needed.

 

[ovikovy817]

Well, it's time at least to say it in public that PP = problem.

Than give some games to Forsythe to adjust.

 

[g00n]

The ES scoring will pick back up when the lines stabilize a little more. 8-92-43 back in action will do wonders.

The goaltending has been adequate from VV. The D-men are good enough to win unless we have our 1-3 guys out and need a Cholo or Irwin to play traffic cone for a few nights.

The PP is clearly the #1 problem. Even on a night where there was a legit "hot goalie" on the other side and luck of the bounce/pipe played a role.

Can't control the other goaltender or the bad breaks and can't force guys to get well so fixing the PP has to be the focus.

/obvious

 

[tycoonheart]

I see things a bit differently. Its not just the inept PP or playing bad hockey over all, I'm seeing the makings of a team that is starting to tune out its coach. They come out flat game after game after game and get down. Its a trend.

This is a pattern for Lavi too. But typically they have a high before his team tunes him out which we seem to have skipped. Lavi isn't very different from Bruce, they seem to have a similar coaching style - they both get loud, get angry, lots of yelling. Someone posted a video of Lavi in the locker room a few weeks ago and my first thought was this sounds way too similar to Bruce. Bruce's shit didn't work with our guys so I highly doubt Lavi's works. I do think we need someone like Trotz who has a much calmer demeanor.

I honestly hope I am wrong and that he figures out a way to fix this.

 

[marcel snapshot]

Needs more youth, energy, and tempo on ice, and more freshness, innovation and creativity off the ice. We’re playing - and being coached - in a stale, outdated way. Hard to imagine Ted seeing it, because he’s been a one-trick pony milking the same cow (a highly productive one, I’ll grant) for 15 years. Ovie has been willing to expand and evolve his game at 36, but this coaching staff seems to be using the injury crutch to justify this predictable, risk-averse, style we’ve been playing since Thanksgiving

 

[StrikingDistance]

Well that sucked.

The good: Free ticket in section 103

The bad: The new seats are somehow smaller. I'm 5'9 and my knees were touching the seat in front of me. The sound system is probably something the military uses for torture. I have above-average hearing loss and could barely think. My ears are rining louder than usual this morning. Ear plugs are a must.

The ugly: The PP actually looks worse in person. No net front presence. Also, it appeared 40-50% of the fans were not wearing masks. I mean, they were 'wearing' them, but not over their mouths and noses.

The cute: Our seats were 2 rows above where Ovi's family sits. On their way out during 2nd intermission, Lil Sergei walked straight into the hand rail and bonked his head. Didn't phase him. Walked up and out like it wasn't there. lol Tough kid.