Prospect Info: Vasili Podkolzin

[Megaterio Llamas]

It is tough to score from the bench. I think we were warned it would probably be the kind of year where most of the highlights came in junior tournaments.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

A look at how the forwards taken after Podz are currently doing:

Boldy- 1P in 11 GP at Boston College
Caufield- 15 P (9G) in 12GP at Wisconsin
Newhook- 8P in 11GP at Boston College
Krebs- Literally just played his first game this weekend since he's been injured

Yeah I was just looking at this last night myself. I wanted Krebs and hated Boldy. Interesting.

 

[Melvin]

According to KHL.ru he played 4:09 per game in the KHL, averaging 6 shifts. In three of the games he played, he received just 1 shift.

You just can't expect a player to really do anything with that.

So you throw that out and you're left with, 7 in 12 in the Supreme League, which, whatever? Doesn't really tell you anything one way or another.

 

[Bleach Clean]

According to KHL.ru he played 4:09 per game in the KHL, averaging 6 shifts. In three of the games he played, he received just 1 shift.

You just can't expect a player to really do anything with that.

So you throw that out and you're left with, 7 in 12 in the Supreme League, which, whatever? Doesn't really tell you anything one way or another.

I think this combined with his draft year production tells you he’s not dominant at the MHL or VHL levels. Given the equivalencies of each league, and the precedent of players in disparate leagues and their production rates, he does not appear to be tracking like former top6 forwards usually would track.

Now granted, not all paths are the same and he could surprise when he comes over. It’s a read on his current projection.

Last, the KHL games are not the only barometer. Though I agree that limited ice time within this context will tank his production.

 

[Melvin]

I think this combined with his draft year production tells you he’s not dominant at the MHL or VHL levels. Given the equivalencies of each league, and the precedent of players in disparate leagues and their production rates, he does not appear to be tracking like former top6 forwards usually would track.

Now granted, not all paths are the same and he could surprise when he comes over. It’s a read on his current projection.

Last, the KHL games are not the only barometer. Though I agree that limited ice time within this context will tank his production.

There are leagues we have a good feel for and leagues we don't. We know what to expect of a drafted player who goes to the CHL. Or NCAA. We have tons of data on that. These other leagues? We barely have any info. The equivalencies are an estimate, but the confidence intervals are wide, and when you're talking about just 12 games? Forget about it. The "precedent" you talk about here is almost nonexistent and the estimates we have are based on such small samples they they are barely better than guesses.

The VHL has really only existed since 2010, and the list of players drafted who then went to play there in their D+1 are:

Mikhail Maltsev
Semyon Kizimov
Danila Zhuravlyov
Dmitri Semykin

Thats...basically your comparison point.

Until Podkolzin is getting reasonable icetime in a league we actually have a good feel for, he will remain something of a mystery box as far as the numbers go.

 

[VanJack]

According to KHL.ru he played 4:09 per game in the KHL, averaging 6 shifts. In three of the games he played, he received just 1 shift.

You just can't expect a player to really do anything with that.

So you throw that out and you're left with, 7 in 12 in the Supreme League, which, whatever? Doesn't really tell you anything one way or another.

The KHL is mystery to me sometimes. Obviously his club team isn't in the business of grooming young players for the NHL. So despite the fact that he's on the roster and I assume being paid, he gets only four minutes of ice-time a night. And I'm not sure anything will be different next year, when his two-year contract is winding down.

So what's the point? They'd be better off to either release him or if he's making somewhere near the league minimum, to let him buy his way out of his remaining contract term.

I suppose Podkolzin will benefit from practicing and scrimmaging with pro hockey players in the KHL, but that's really about it.

 

[krutovsdonut]

The KHL is mystery to me sometimes. Obviously his club team isn't in the business of grooming young players for the NHL. So despite the fact that he's on the roster and I assume being paid, he gets only four minutes of ice-time a night. And I'm not sure anything will be different next year, when his two-year contract is winding down.

So what's the point? They'd be better off to either release him or if he's making somewhere near the league minimum, to let him buy his way out of his remaining contract term.

I suppose Podkolzin will benefit from practicing and scrimmaging with pro hockey players in the KHL, but that's really about it.

that's how european clubs break in young soccer players so they do the same thing with hockey players.

i think ska's incentive in developing him is to (a) develop a good player for the greater glory or the motherland and (b) try to find a way to get him to stay by any means possible and (c) benefit from his play while they have him.

 

[shottasasa]

The entire structure of the league and player movement rules are so different in Europe. If NHL teams had the ability to move their drafted players around as freely, I think we’d find they would be handled differently

 

[DFAC]

According to KHL.ru he played 4:09 per game in the KHL, averaging 6 shifts. In three of the games he played, he received just 1 shift.

You just can't expect a player to really do anything with that.

So you throw that out and you're left with, 7 in 12 in the Supreme League, which, whatever? Doesn't really tell you anything one way or another.

The KHL is mystery to me sometimes. Obviously his club team isn't in the business of grooming young players for the NHL. So despite the fact that he's on the roster and I assume being paid, he gets only four minutes of ice-time a night. And I'm not sure anything will be different next year, when his two-year contract is winding down.

So what's the point? They'd be better off to either release him or if he's making somewhere near the league minimum, to let him buy his way out of his remaining contract term.

I suppose Podkolzin will benefit from practicing and scrimmaging with pro hockey players in the KHL, but that's really about it.

that's how european clubs break in young soccer players so they do the same thing with hockey players.

i think ska's incentive in developing him is to (a) develop a good player for the greater glory or the motherland and (b) try to find a way to get him to stay by any means possible and (c) benefit from his play while they have him.

At what point do we start to become concerned that this is hindering his development? Or have we already passed that point lol

 

[F A N]

At what point do we start to become concerned that this is hindering his development? Or have we already passed that point lol

The problem is that our concerns are pointless. I'm concerned that Pods' development is being hindered but there's nothing that can be done. Pods will play out his contract in Russia.

It does seem that this decade's highly regarded Russian forwards who like Pods did not have a starring role in the KHL in their draft eligible and draft + 1 season tend to take some time to develop. Gurianov is just making an impact at the NHL level for Dallas.

 

[Dab]

Literally the only thing you can infer from 11 pointless games in the KHL is that he's probably not playing very much. The data otherwise has no projectability.

Him not playing much tells us a lot about where his development is at. Right now I’d peg his development this year as borderline disasterous.

Francesco needs to employ every tool in his toolbox to get Pod over here. The Aquilini family must have connections amongst the Russian oligarchs that run the KHL.

 

[Dab]

According to KHL.ru he played 4:09 per game in the KHL, averaging 6 shifts. In three of the games he played, he received just 1 shift.

You just can't expect a player to really do anything with that.[\b]

So you throw that out and you're left with, 7 in 12 in the Supreme League, which, whatever? Doesn't really tell you anything one way or another.

Including become an nhl player.

 

[Melvin]

Including become an nhl player.

That's fair.

 

[timw33]

The Aquilini family must have connections amongst the Russian oligarchs that run the KHL.

There's a reason FAQ is silo'd away from the actual core Aqulini businesses. He's an incompetent fail son. I'm reminded of the time he tried to convince Tom Brady to come fire the team up in the most cringe-y way possible. This is not a guy who is good at A) deals b) relationship management C) business

 

[Dab]

There's a reason FAQ is silo'd away from the actual core Aqulini businesses. He's an incompetent fail son. I'm reminded of the time he tried to convince Tom Brady to come fire the team up in the most cringe-y way possible. This is not a guy who is good at A) deals b) relationship management C) business

I’m not sure about that- he’s a big fish around here who owns politicians and city hall here in vancouver. I’m sure he has international business ties. Flex, Francesco!

 

[Bleach Clean]

There are leagues we have a good feel for and leagues we don't. We know what to expect of a drafted player who goes to the CHL. Or NCAA. We have tons of data on that. These other leagues? We barely have any info. The equivalencies are an estimate, but the confidence intervals are wide, and when you're talking about just 12 games? Forget about it. The "precedent" you talk about here is almost nonexistent and the estimates we have are based on such small samples they they are barely better than guesses.

The VHL has really only existed since 2010, and the list of players drafted who then went to play there in their D+1 are:

Mikhail Maltsev
Semyon Kizimov
Danila Zhuravlyov
Dmitri Semykin

Thats...basically your comparison point.

Until Podkolzin is getting reasonable icetime in a league we actually have a good feel for, he will remain something of a mystery box as far as the numbers go.

I do agree that it's harder to gauge a true mean for the population for the MHL and VHL. Low games played and few NHL graduates will do this. However, with NHLe for these leagues, there's enough to roughly gauge Pod's ability. I disagree that it's a complete mystery. That we cannot do it. After all, statisticians within this space have created and employ these NHL equivalencies.

As for precedent, I am referring to the act of converting points via NHLe from the MHL/VHL to common feeder leagues like the CHL and NCAA, and then seeing how that projects to the NHL. It's not the same as having a swath of data from these common leagues, but it's enough, I think, to at least start looking for comparable trajectories.

 

[Melvin]

All I want for Christmas is for people to stop treating NHLe like its gospel.

 

[Disappointed EP40]

I, for one, like this mystery bag prospect.

Will he bust? Is he progressing? Can he play against high level competition? Who knows! We will find out in 2021 at this rate.

 

[Orca Smash]

I also find players /prospects in russia incredibly hard to understand or predict without context. I still dont know how an 18 year tolvanen had one of the best khl rookie seasons we have seen since malkin and is struggling more in the ahl then he did in the second best league in the world. Im sure someone has circumstantial reasons to explain it. Tolvanen still has lots of time though.

 

[Melvin]

I also find players /prospects in russia incredibly hard to understand or predict without context. I still dont know how an 18 year tolvanen had one of the best khl rookie seasons we have seen since malkin and is struggling more in the ahl then he did in the second best league in the world. Im sure someone has circumstantial reasons to explain it. Tolvanen still has lots of time though.

Agreed. It is a very difficult system to get any sort of feel for, and probably the hardest one to project.

The Swedish system by comparison is much more easily translatable. If anyone has theories why I'd be interested in hearing them.

 

[Bleach Clean]

All I want for Christmas is for people to stop treating NHLe like its gospel.

It's being treated as it has been.

 

[Cancuks]

If he can't even get a point in the KHL I don't think he's even close to playing in the NHL. Let him finish up his contract over there then play him a year in the AHL.

 

[Jyrki21]

I’m not sure about that- he’s a big fish around here who owns politicians and city hall here in vancouver. I’m sure he has international business ties. Flex, Francesco!

If he were that influential, you'd think he'd have a bigger voice at NHL Board of Governors meetings and the Canucks would catch a break here and there...

 

[lawrence]

This was a Judd bracket pick boys.

 

[ChilliBilly]

If he can't even get a point in the KHL I don't think he's even close to playing in the NHL. Let him finish up his contract over there then play him a year in the AHL.

You do realize that every Russian player who signs an ELC will have an out clause to be able to go back to Russia rather than go to the AHL. Why go play for $70 K a year when they likely get a minimum of 5 times that in Russia.

Part of drafting Russians is that you better accept when you bring them over you have to play them in the NHL first. If they struggle, fine send them to the AHL, knowing that might be the last you ever see of them.

Tryamkin refused to report to Utica, played OK then went back to Russia anyways.