Confirmed Signing with Link: [VAN] F Nils Hoglander signs extension with the Canucks (3 years, $3M AAV; begins 2025-26)

[Fatass]

Is Hoglander pretty much the same player as Nic Robertson?

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Just never was a huge fan, I hope I am wrong, I don’t think he’s a bad player, I just don’t think he’s a top six player

3m isn’t a top 6 player money
Especially not when the cap exceed 100m in 2 years

Is Hoglander pretty much the same player as Nic Robertson?

Except one was top 10 in 5v5 goals last season and played quite a bit

Nic Robertson should try to become an every day player first.

If you talking about Toronto, Mathew Knies is a closer comparable

 

[Brookbank]

Probably the most expensive guy we've had currently slotted on our 4th line in a few years... but this time it's because of depth, and he's being paid for what he can most likely do.

No issues with this contract. Young and hopefully gets a couple years of his prime for 3mil.

He had the same even strength goals as Leon Draisitle in a world where Dylan Guenther got 7 million.

Park it.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

With Lomberg making 2 per in Calgary, and I like Lomberg, good signing.

 

[Three On Zero]

Looks like Vancouver...

...is high on the Hog.

I did the joke first, begone el jefe

 

[Metalwood]

We should have had Boldy too

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Seems a good deal for Vancouver. Good opportunistic scorer 5v5. Talented and could become a top 6 guy. If not he's proven useful and productive in a lesser role and seems to excel in it. $3m for 3rd line guys is about to be the norm.

 

[Coffees]

We should have had Boldy too

@Dr Jan Itor @BagHead

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Underrated lunch box player who can move up and down the lineup. I think he has a couple 55pt seasons coming up if he can play on Petterssons wing.

 

[lawrence]

24 goals with no powerplay time, and pretty much on the 3rd line. Opportunist winger with skill and speed, but lacks size, decent hands.

 

[biturbo19]

It's an alright deal. I don't love it, but it's not terrible. Assuming he regresses back to more like ~15G...it's still palatable, if he can continue to score all of 'em at Even Strength. Especially if he can continue to do it mostly from a 3rd/4th line as he did last year. Problem is...other than scoring and being a bit of a pest, he doesn't really do anything else. He's an absolutely dreadful playmaker, he's not big enough to be imposing in any way, he's mediocre at best defensively, he doesn't PK and he's useless on the PP.

So $3M x 3 is somewhat fair if he can chip in 15-20G purely at 5v5. Just for that...as it's an extremely valuable skill. But there's downside to this deal.


However...i think unless he completely falls apart again in the confidence department, he's likely to still play well enough and productively enough to be plenty tradeable at that price in years 2-3 (or even as deadline tradebait this year) if there's no longer a fit for him. So that makes the deal just fine to me.

Plus, i do like him as a player. Even if he is a bit of a weird misfit. When he's on top of his game, he's fun to watch...as a little chaos creating "energy player" with unusually decent finishing ability.

 

[HockeyWooot]

Solid deal. Hoggy is a little power forward lol

Shooting percentage will drop but expect and offset if he sticks on the Pettersson line.

 

[jackjohnson]

Probably the most expensive guy we've had currently slotted on our 4th line in a few years... but this time it's because of depth, and he's being paid for what he can most likely do.

No issues with this contract. Young and hopefully gets a couple years of his prime for 3mil.

He is not a 4th liner bro. He had 24 goals last season for god sakes. Show me a 4th liner that had 24 goals except maybe Sprong?

Boom/bust guy, can he repeat the production from last season, if so, it’s a good deal.

He trends more towards boom than bust when his work ethic is off the chart.

 

[jackjohnson]

Just never was a huge fan, I hope I am wrong, I don’t think he’s a bad player, I just don’t think he’s a top six player

Doesnt matter, even as a 3rd line player, he is a bargain at 3 million when the cap hits 100 mil. Thats 3% of cap for an elite 3rd liner. Joshua, Hoglander, Blueger, Garland are very very solid bottom 6 players that would match up with any elite team with ease. I take that bottom 6 over the Oilers bottom 6 any day.

 

[Sexy Necksy Garland]

Looks like Vancouver...

...is high on the Hog.

This is the most primo of the Horatio Caine sunglass scenes. You'll notice he enters the scene already wearing shades, necessitating removing them so he's able to dramatically put them on for when he really needs them, facing away from a fire. Truly incredible television.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

@Dr Jan Itor @BagHead

We’re allowed to get lucky sometimes.

 

[UrbanImpact]

I personally thought he was going to be traded for an LD with similar upside.

He is very solid and will provide secondary scoring for the Canucks.

Canucks are full of players that will drive other teams insane and get under their skin.

Hoglander, Sherwood, Garland.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

It's an alright deal. I don't love it, but it's not terrible. Assuming he regresses back to more like ~15G...it's still palatable, if he can continue to score all of 'em at Even Strength. Especially if he can continue to do it mostly from a 3rd/4th line as he did last year. Problem is...other than scoring and being a bit of a pest, he doesn't really do anything else. He's an absolutely dreadful playmaker, he's not big enough to be imposing in any way, he's mediocre at best defensively, he doesn't PK and he's useless on the PP.

So $3M x 3 is somewhat fair if he can chip in 15-20G purely at 5v5. Just for that...as it's an extremely valuable skill. But there's downside to this deal.


However...i think unless he completely falls apart again in the confidence department, he's likely to still play well enough and productively enough to be plenty tradeable at that price in years 2-3 (or even as deadline tradebait this year) if there's no longer a fit for him. So that makes the deal just fine to me.

Plus, i do like him as a player. Even if he is a bit of a weird misfit. When he's on top of his game, he's fun to watch...as a little chaos creating "energy player" with unusually decent finishing ability.

This bothers me so much, why do so many nucks fans think he’s gonna regress?
SH%? How about the fact that he’s still only 23

 

[biturbo19]

This bothers me so much, why do so many nucks fans think he’s gonna regress?
SH%? How about the fact that he’s still only 23

Unsustainable Shooting% is a big part of it. It's also just, the reality of the way he scores most of his goals. He'll likely always be a slightly above average% shooter, but the nature of those "broken play" goals he tends to primarily score, is prone to huge volatility and swings in success year over year. He's not a "pure sniper" or "volume shooter", and he's not going to be a fixture or focal point on a Top PP Unit.

Which...he may still be "only 23" but that realistically caps his "upside". He also just is not a good playmaker and plays a totally disjointed game that is going to continue to make it difficult for him to compile a lot more points, which tends to be a little more stable than his type of goal-scoring in particular. So his offensive output is likely to be a lot more "swingy" than average. Year over year, and even within a season.


Which is why so many Canucks fans expect he will regress next year in his production. Because it's heavily goal-driven, and predominantly off broken plays. Most indicators including analytics and the "eye test"...suggest that was likely one of the "high points" of that swing. Which means it's more likely to swing down rather than up.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Unsustainable Shooting% is a big part of it. It's also just, the reality of the way he scores most of his goals. He'll likely always be a slightly above average% shooter, but the nature of those "broken play" goals he tends to primarily score, is prone to huge volatility and swings in success year over year. He's not a "pure sniper" or "volume shooter", and he's not going to be a fixture or focal point on a Top PP Unit.

Which...he may still be "only 23" but that realistically caps his "upside". He also just is not a good playmaker and plays a totally disjointed game that is going to continue to make it difficult for him to compile a lot more points, which tends to be a little more stable than his type of goal-scoring in particular. So his offensive output is likely to be a lot more "swingy" than average. Year over year, and even within a season.


Which is why so many Canucks fans expect he will regress next year in his production. Because it's heavily goal-driven, and predominantly off broken plays. Most indicators including analytics and the "eye test"...suggest that was likely one of the "high points" of that swing. Which means it's more likely to swing down rather than up.

Disagree

He’s a player who’s going to make a living as a net front killer and a pest

 

[biturbo19]

Disagree

He’s a player who’s going to make a living as a net front killer and a pest

Being a pest doesn't inherently make a player score more though.

And as far as "net front killer"...he's got great, quick hands around the net area and he's plenty stubborn and willing to stick his nose in there...but he just doesn't have the size and strength to hang in there as what i'd consider a true net front presence. He's just more of a darting little garbage man. Which is fine. But those sort of goals depend on a lot of external factors and frankly, a lot of "puck luck".



What specifically about Hoglander's game is it that objectively makes you believe he's going to continue to score even more than he did last year? Or is it mostly just ~vibes~ and the fact he's still relatively young, that you'd project a continued upward swing?