Value of: Value of Ducks trading 2nd overall for 3rd overall

[Ducks in a row]

Just curious what people think Blue Jackets would add to go from 3rd to 2nd if any trade was made.

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[lanceuppercut75]

2nd overall
60th overall
Jacob Silfverberg

3rd overall
21st/22nd/23rd overall (2023 LAK 1ST)
34th overall
Boone Jenner
Andrew Peeke

Not feeling overly confident in that, but what the hell.

I feel like Columbus fans will think it's too much, but Anaheim fans will think it's not enough

 

[KaseMeOutside]

I don't know wouldn't that depend on what the perceived gap is between prospect 2 and prospect 3? It's not gonna be that much at best a 2 or 3

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Only thing that would make me trade down for #3 is if Jiricek is included, #2 for #3 + Jiricek.
Just keep the pick and draft Fantilli, you rarely get to draft a player who's slightly better draft prospect than Eichel. The only way you trade down is if you want Carlsson and think he'll greatly improve his skating and shot to Fantilli levels.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

I guess the most logical one would be #3 + #23 (potentially changing to #22 or #21) for #2. Alternatively, I could see CBJ willing to replace the #23 pick with one of their young wingers not named Johnson/Marchenko. Or maybe Ceulemans if Ducks want Dmen.

If CBJ doesnt think the #2 and #3 gap is large, Ducks might have to add a 2nd/3rd round pick.

 

[majormajor]

I might actually prefer Carlsson to Fantilli, not sure yet, so I wouldn't pay much to move up from #3.

 

[Gliff]

Nothing but an overpayment would make me feel good about it.

There is a reason top 5 picks never get traded/moved down from. The last time it happened was Luke Schenn.

 

[Nanabijou]

Trade only works if Anaheim thinks the picks at 2 and 3 (presumably Carlsson and Fantilli) are virtually equal but CBJ values one well over the other. I find that unlikely to be the case here, especially with both being centers. As a CBJ fan, I feel right now like I'm fine with whoever falls to 3 (likely Carlsson).

 

[bobholly39]

Trade only works if Anaheim thinks the picks at 2 and 3 (presumably Carlsson and Fantilli) are virtually equal but CBJ values one well over the other. I find that unlikely to be the case here, especially with both being centers. As a CBJ fan, I feel right now like I'm fine with whoever falls to 3 (likely Carlsson).

Why would Anaheim even do it though in that scenario? I suppose if Columbus paid an absolutely ridiculous amount, that could be why. But barring that huge overpayment, it would be very stupid for Anaheim.

Anaheim are better off picking whoever they think will be best/best fit in with their team, rather than letting Columbus make that choice for them, even if they think both players are close.

 

[BB88]

Columbus should offee nothing and just pick Carlsson at 3

6’3 C with elite IQ

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Trade only works if Anaheim thinks the picks at 2 and 3 (presumably Carlsson and Fantilli) are virtually equal but CBJ values one well over the other. I find that unlikely to be the case here, especially with both being centers. As a CBJ fan, I feel right now like I'm fine with whoever falls to 3 (likely Carlsson).

agreed, just doesn’t make since for either team, both should be good big nhl centers

Better to let our scouts pick between the options then get the left over options.

Only way I really see it as an option is if our plan is to take michkov anyway(which in itself is highly unlikely)

 

[Nanabijou]

Why would Anaheim even do it though in that scenario? I suppose if Columbus paid an absolutely ridiculous amount, that could be why. But barring that huge overpayment, it would be very stupid for Anaheim.

Anaheim are better off picking whoever they think will be best/best fit in with their team, rather than letting Columbus make that choice for them, even if they think both players are close.

I agree, it doesn't make sense for either team. I meant in the rare case that the Anaheim scouts were equally divided and there was no consensus pick, which is unlikely.

If one player was a D, and one was a forward, and CBJ were worried about Anaheim trading down to 4 or 5 and losing the player at the position they wanted then that might be a different situation. Davidson is on record saying they will draft a center, and so they will get one even if Anaheim traded with a team below them.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Trade only works if Anaheim thinks the picks at 2 and 3 (presumably Carlsson and Fantilli) are virtually equal but CBJ values one well over the other. I find that unlikely to be the case here, especially with both being centers. As a CBJ fan, I feel right now like I'm fine with whoever falls to 3 (likely Carlsson).

I like both teams and the cost would never fit for either team. Same with SJ or Montreal trying to trade up to 3. Better off picking who they like.
The cost for CBJ would never be worth it than just taking Carlsson, for Anaheim its not worth missing out on Eichel tier prospect in Fantilli.

That said i want Columbus to get at least Carlsson so that Carlsson doesn't fall to SJ lol.
Kopitar 2.0 in SJ would be a headache for Zegras and McTavish.

 

[Chainshot]

I might actually prefer Carlsson to Fantilli, not sure yet, so I wouldn't pay much to move up from #3.

Yeah, in weighing out Fantilli vs. Carlsson, is there a gap that is big enough to warrant hobbling themselves elsewhere OR do they stay put at 3, take who they think is the best player remaining and also keep their pick in the 20's in a relatively deep draft? That's an easy "stay put" from here.

 

[Ice9]

Big strapping kid who is hard working, smart, plays a 200 foot game and is still learning to control that big frame of his? I'll stay at 3 and take LC thanks.

 

[Viqsi]

2nd overall
60th overall
Jacob Silfverberg

3rd overall
21st/22nd/23rd overall (2023 LAK 1ST)
34th overall
Boone Jenner
Andrew Peeke

Not feeling overly confident in that, but what the hell.

I feel like Columbus fans will think it's too much, but Anaheim fans will think it's not enough

There's no "think" about it. It is unquestionably too much by any sane measure. Including Jenner alone puts it beyond the pale.

 

[Brodeur]

Nothing but an overpayment would make me feel good about it.

There is a reason top 5 picks never get traded/moved down from. The last time it happened was Luke Schenn.

Teams will still talk, it's just dependent on there being a market. Typically a team wouldn't trade up a single spot if they could infer that the team trading down wasn't taking their guy. It would be if there was fear that the team could trade down further and they could get leapfrogged for their guy.

1998: San Jose had #2 but wanted a D. Nashville had #3 and wanted a forward to be their first ever draft pick. They made a trade #2 and #85 for #3 and #29.

1999: Things got complicated as Vancouver secured both Sedins. There wasn't a consensus #1 that year, so that enabled some relatively minor swaps.

2002: Columbus was picking #3 and thought they were all set to take Rick Nash. Then the morning of the draft, Philadelphia acquired #4 and Columbus got paranoid that the Flyers might move up to #2. Columbus worked out a deal with Florida (who then had a side deal with Atlanta) to move up to #1 to guarantee Nash.

2003: Florida had the top pick and had Nathan Horton on top of their board. So they figured they could trade down and still get him.

2006: Boston offered #5 and #37 to Washington for #4, but the Caps declined once Boston indicated they were targeting Nicklas Backstrom.

2007: LA tried to trade down from #4 since they were going off the board for Thomas Hickey, but they couldn't find a deal. St. Louis tried to move into the top 6 for Jakub Voracek but nobody was willing to drop to #9.

2014: Florida had some traction on trade talks to deal the Aaron Ekblad pick to Philadelphia, but talks broke down when the Flyers wouldn't include Wayne Simmonds.

2015: Toronto approached Columbus about moving down from #4 to #8 contingent on if their guy (Marner) wasn't available. New Jersey offered #6 to Columbus as well.

2016: There was three way swap that nearly got completed. Columbus (Dubois) would have moved from #3 to #4, Edmonton (Sergachev) from #4 to #6, and Calgary (not sure) from #6 to #3. Also perhaps more pertinent to this discussion was that Columbus asked Winnipeg about swapping spots but the Jets said no.

2017: Vegas wanted to make a big splash in its first draft. They tried to move up to #6 to #3, then would have used #3 to get to #1 for Nolan Patrick. New Jersey apparently was willing to listen since they knew at least one of Hischier/Makar would be there at #3. But Dallas had no desire to move down from #3. Vancouver also offered to swap #5 for #6+ but Vegas surmised that Vancouver wasn't targeting Cody Glass so they opted to stay put.

----------------

TL;DR: Anaheim trading down one spot only works if:

1) They're targeting somebody different than Columbus at #3
2) There's a credible threat that they could swap with say San Jose at #4, and Columbus has a strong preference between #2 and #3.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Jackets should keep the pick Fantilli might have the higher floor but Carlsson has the bigger ceilling imo

I know personally at 2 i take Leo

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

Only thing that would make me trade down for #3 is if Jiricek is included, #2 for #3 + Jiricek.
Just keep the pick and draft Fantilli, you rarely get to draft a player who's slightly better draft prospect than Eichel. The only way you trade down is if you want Carlsson and think he'll greatly improve his skating and shot to Fantilli levels.

It’s asinine to think that the difference between Fantilli and Carlsson is David Jiricek

 

[Unbiased Fan]

At 2 there is 3 prospects that are about equal and then Smith isn’t “that” far off. Shouldn’t cost much but still and overpayments

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

One logical way I could see something like this happening is if it’s 2oa+33oa for 3oa+22oa+Peeke. Otherwise I don’t see much a benefit to trading assets to flip picks.

 

[Gliff]

One logical way I could see something like this happening is if it’s 2oa+33oa for 3oa+22oa+Peeke. Otherwise I don’t see much a benefit to trading assets to flip picks.

Value wise I think 2 for 3+22 is fine. But the only way I do that is if Columbus doesn't want whoever the Ducks scouts want. And in that case why even do it?

I want the Ducks to take their guy. If they can trade down and still get their guy then fine. But don't take the 3rd guy on their board just to get a late 1st.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Trading down a spot makes sense if they want Michkov but also want other assets to make it less of a risky move.

Michkov is probably the second best prospect in the draft and from an outsider’s perspective he fits their needs more than another center. He also probably fits their competitive window better. They have Zegras and McTavish as two young centers plus Gaucher in the pipeline and Strome signed for another four years.

Fantilli is projected to be the best player out of that lot so maybe they don’t overthink it and just take Fantilli and let the rest sort itself out but if Michkov is their guy and they can get him while also getting more assets then that’s a scenario worth exploring.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

Value wise I think 2 for 3+22 is fine. But the only way I do that is if Columbus doesn't want whoever the Ducks scouts want. And in that case why even do it?

I want the Ducks to take their guy. If they can trade down and still get their guy then fine. But don't take the 3rd guy on their board just to get a late 1st.

Agreed. I don’t see it likely that a flip happens. Is there any chance Anaheim prefers Michkov or Carlsson to Fantilli?

 

[SwedishFire]

2nd overall
60th overall
Jacob Silfverberg

3rd overall
21st/22nd/23rd overall (2023 LAK 1ST)
34th overall
Boone Jenner
Andrew Peeke

Not feeling overly confident in that, but what the hell.

I feel like Columbus fans will think it's too much, but Anaheim fans will think it's not enough

It will take more than Jackets fans want. Why should Anaheim leave Fantelli?? Blue Jackets can just draft Smith. Im not sold on Leo Carlsson. Early SHL success because size? Think Magnus Pääjärvi.

CBJ gets
2nd overall
Jakob Silfverberg

ANA gets
3rd overall
Marchenko/Boqvist
CBJs 2nd 1st rounder.

Young upcoming hot ptospect for another. Swap-swap or nothing.