Speculation: Value of Broberg & Holloway’s next contracts

[A Real Barn Burner]

I understand the argument that Broberg may never be a number one defenseman. However, he’s the only under-30 defenseman we have to build a top four around. If we wait another year he will have more production and the price to lock him up will increase along with the rising cap. If we sign him to an 8-year contract this summer, he’ll be with us for 9 years or until he’s 34. Alternatively, if we decide to bridge him until 2027, as he’s a UFA in 2028, we’d be signing him to a 7-8 year deal that would keep him well past 35. Considering the rising cap and his age, I believe it would be wise to lock him up sooner rather than later if we consider him a core piece. Prices are crazy right now but if 8x8 is what it takes you would be better off doing it now than waiting for him to prove it.

 

[Reality Czech]

I understand the argument that Broberg may never be a number one defenseman. However, he’s the only under-30 defenseman we have to build a top four around. If we wait another year he will have more production and the price to lock him up will increase along with the rising cap. If we sign him to an 8-year contract this summer, he’ll be with us for 9 years or until he’s 34. Alternatively, if we decide to bridge him until 2027, as he’s a UFA in 2028, we’d be signing him to a 7-8 year deal that would keep him well past 35. Considering the rising cap and his age, I believe it would be wise to lock him up sooner rather than later if we consider him a core piece. Prices are crazy right now but if 8x8 is what it takes you would be better off doing it now than waiting for him to prove it.

Well yeah but if he tops out as a solid 35 point second pair guy then it would hurt to get locked into an 8x8 deal. It's not an easy call either way to be honest, but I'm hesitant to offer that deal right now based on what we know. Hopefully the fact that we're paying him handsomely these two years will buy us a little goodwill in future negotiations.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I understand the argument that Broberg may never be a number one defenseman. However, he’s the only under-30 defenseman we have to build a top four around. If we wait another year he will have more production and the price to lock him up will increase along with the rising cap. If we sign him to an 8-year contract this summer, he’ll be with us for 9 years or until he’s 34. Alternatively, if we decide to bridge him until 2027, as he’s a UFA in 2028, we’d be signing him to a 7-8 year deal that would keep him well past 35. Considering the rising cap and his age, I believe it would be wise to lock him up sooner rather than later if we consider him a core piece. Prices are crazy right now but if 8x8 is what it takes you would be better off doing it now than waiting for him to prove it.

You make a valid point here. I’m not against a longer extension but just don’t see him as worth $8M/year as of today, even with the rising cap. The fact remains we don’t need to re-sign him this July or anytime this summer really. While it would be ideal to have that taken care of, I’d rather be cautious than overpay. He could be re-signed anytime during the season if either he or the Blues wanted part of next season to play out first before committing longterm.

 

[Majorityof1]

Well yeah but if he tops out as a solid 35 point second pair guy then it would hurt to get locked into an 8x8 deal. It's not an easy call either way to be honest, but I'm hesitant to offer that deal right now based on what we know. Hopefully the fact that we're paying him handsomely these two years will buy us a little goodwill in future negotiations.

Faulk was never a top pair guy yet many were excited to get him at $6.5M. That was when the cap was 81.5M. Next year it will be $14M more at $95.5. The equivilant salary to Faulk's cap hit will be $7.62M next year.

The cap will go up again the following year when Broberg's deal will actually start. I'd like to go less tha 8x8. I think we can, but it's not far off from what Faulk got when you consider increased cap. Faulk had a better offensive track record when he joined us but Broberg has more room to grow.

 

[stl76]

As fans, we collectively need to wrap our heads around just how much the cap is increasing. It’s easy to cognitively be aware a big increase is coming, but it’s another to really internalize what that will mean for salaries and previously held benchmarks.

8x8 will be 2nd pairing money before you know it.

 

[Brian39]

Without another noticeable jump forward in his game, Broberg wouldn't be worth $8M in year 1 of an $8Mx8 deal. But it isn't going to take long for $8M to have a much different meaning than it has right now. We're going to see contracts explode over the next few years as the cap finally catches up to the 5 years of revenue growth the league has experienced while the cap was flat to repay the escrow debt. That doesn't mean it is "2nd pair" money right off the bat, but it is going to get there throughout a hypothetical 8 year extension.

Broberg's next contract would start in 2026/27, which has an already-announced cap of $104M. $8M AAV is 7.7% of that. 7.7% of the 2024/25 cap was $6.77M. So in year 1, $8M is already quite a bit different than what it was this year. 21 D men made $8M+ in 2024/25 while 37 made $6.75M+. So we're already talking about $8M going from "1D" money currently to "top pair" money in year 1 of the deal.

Year 2 would be 2027/28, which has an already announced-cap of $113.5M. $8M AAV is 7% of that. 7% of the 2024/25 cap was $6.2M. 49 D men made $6.25M+ in 2024/25. So by year 2, $8M has already become comparable to "low end top pair" money.

We don't know the cap for 2028/29 (year 3), but even modest growth is going to mean that $8M is the equivalent cap percentage to guys making sub-$6M in 2024/25. Here's the list of guys who made $5.75M-$5.99M this year: Pionk, Gavrikov, Lindell, Forsling, Pelech, and Roy. Even if Broberg is "only" a quality all-around 2nd pair guy who can hit the 35 point mark without top PP time, I think he'd fit in pretty well with that group. And we'd be talking about a 27 year old with 6 more years under contract.

The reality is that $8M x 8 would be less of a cap commitment than the contract we gave Faulk and it would end at the conclusion of Broberg's age 32 season compared to Faulk's contract which takes him through his age 34 season.

Well yeah but if he tops out as a solid 35 point second pair guy then it would hurt to get locked into an 8x8 deal.

I'm just not sold that this is true.

We currently have $41M in cap space for year 1 of his extension (plus potentially $6.5M LTIR relief from Krug). Holloway, Bolduc and Fowler are also due raises that year and maybe we add some cap commitments this summer. But we have tons of room to overpay him a bit in that season. We currently have $75M in space for year 2 of an extension. We are incredibly well situated to overpay him a bit in years 1 and 2. And then by year 3, $8M isn't really an overpay for a solid 35 point second pair guy (who defends at his level).

Realistically, we're probably talking about $8M as the going rate for a solid 35 point second pair guy (who defends at his level) by year 4 or 5 of an 8 year deal. Does any of that really hurt? Obviously we'd be disappointed that he didn't hit the potential we think he has, but from a cap standpoint, that's a pretty great 'what if things don't work out' scenario.

And the flipside is that if he does take another step and becomes a legit top pair guy, $8M would be an underpayment the day the contract starts. $8M x 8 wouldn't be without risk, but the risk of waiting is that he breaks out into a legit top pair guy in the middle of the cap explosion, decides to wait to really negotiate until Makar and Hughes completely re-set the D market with their extensions next summer, and suddenly negotiations start at $10M+.

 

[Thallis]

As fans, we collectively need to wrap our heads around just how much the cap is increasing. It’s easy to cognitively be aware a big increase is coming, but it’s another to really internalize what that will mean for salaries and previously held benchmarks.

8x8 will be 2nd pairing money before you know it.

While I agree, the benefit of getting a deal like this done sooner is to lock yourself into a steal of a contract in year 3 or 4 when you have similar defensemen getting 8-10M on the open market.

 

[DeuceNine]

I think Toronto's recent implosion is going to remind many GMs to re-think just how much certain players are worth. I'm not sure that simply because the cap is going up, that certain players are suddenly and intrinsically worth more. There's been too much "fear overpay" recently, with guys that barely score 30 goals making $8M, because a team has nothing else.

 

[BrokenFace]

I think Toronto's recent implosion is going to remind many GMs to re-think just how much certain players are worth. I'm not sure that simply because the cap is going up, that certain players are suddenly and intrinsically worth more. There's been too much "fear overpay" recently, with guys that barely score 30 goals making $8M, because a team has nothing else.

Agents have been negotiating using cap percentage rather than raw dollars for player comps for a long time. I can't see how a rising cap won't lead to certain players getting paid amounts that would have been stunning in recent years. GMs aren't known for being the most disciplined group either. Remember, it took a lockout to stop GMs from giving out 10+ year contracts to free agents.

 

[Majorityof1]

Agents have been negotiating using cap percentage rather than raw dollars for player comps for a long time. I can't see how a rising cap won't lead to certain players getting paid amounts that would have been stunning in recent years. GMs aren't known for being the most disciplined group either. Remember, it took a lockout to stop GMs from giving out 10+ year contracts to free agents.

The average tenure of a GM is less than 5 years. Why worry about paying an over the hill player in 10 years when you very likely won't make it past year 6.

 

[BlueMed]

I would agree with this. Both offer sheet guys performed well but Holloway exceeded expectations by even more. Broberg performed well as our #4 d-man. He seems like a solid two-way d-man but besides his skating, I don’t really see any standout traits. I see more of a #3-4 guy for most of his career. Maybe a #2 if paired with a truly elite #1 guy but I just don’t see Broberg himself developing into a #1. I’d be happy if he did but I just don’t see that sort of potential in him.

That's a really conservative expectation. His trajectory has him ready for a top pairing role in 1-2 seasons. Whether he has that opportunity will depend on what the Blues' plans are with Fowler. Don't forget Broberg's point production in the first 2-3 months of the season.

 

[STL fan in MN]

That's a really conservative expectation. His trajectory has him ready for a top pairing role in 1-2 seasons. Whether he has that opportunity will depend on what the Blues' plans are with Fowler. Don't forget Broberg's point production in the first 2-3 months of the season.

Why? What leads you to believe his trajectory will be a #1-2 d-man in 1-2 season? Do you feel the production his first 10ish games is sustainable?

 

[BlueMed]

Why? What leads you to believe his trajectory will be a #1-2 d-man in 1-2 season? Do you feel the production his first 10ish games is sustainable?

For a number of reasons.

He already paced for 35 points at the age of 23, on a new team, and without #1 power play time. Even assuming he has reached his ceiling, how many #3-4 defensemen in the league produce at that rate with roughly 43% oZ starts an 56% dZ starts? It's funny how no one mentions that he was in the top 20 in +/- among defensemen. From a scouting standpoint, he played very well on both ends of the ice with exceptional skating and was comfortable being assertive in the offensive zone. We saw countless moments of him carrying the puck in deep and making plays below the opposition's goal line. I don't think it's unrealistic for him to get acclimated and increase his point production to 45ish per season in a few years. Are we really going to call THAT a #3-4 defensemen?

 

[STL fan in MN]

For a number of reasons.

He already paced for 35 points at the age of 23, on a new team, and without #1 power play time. Even assuming he has reached his ceiling, how many #3-4 defensemen in the league produce at that rate with roughly 43% oZ starts an 56% dZ starts? It's funny how no one mentions that he was in the top 20 in +/- among defensemen. From a scouting standpoint, he played very well on both ends of the ice with exceptional skating and was comfortable being assertive in the offensive zone. We saw countless moments of him carrying the puck in deep and making plays below the opposition's goal line. I don't think it's unrealistic for him to get acclimated and increase his point production to 45ish per season in a few years. Are we really going to call THAT a #3-4 defensemen?

Fair response. While points matter, usage matters more to me. He was our #4 this year and while he has room to grow, based on his characteristics (strengths and weaknesses) I see him being mostly a 2nd pairing guy for the bulk of his career. I see him as a jack of all trades, master of none type. Someone that is solid in most areas but really no standout traits other than the skating. He’s not very aggressive and I find his hockey sense to be average. And there’s a reason he’s not on the PP. He’s not very good at it. He’s solid in all areas so I’d assume he’d be fine on the PP but pretty much never be an ideal option as he just doesn’t have the playmaking abilities or top level hockey sense you’d want in a PPQB.

Don’t get me wrong, I really like Broberg. And think he was an absolute steal for a 2nd round pick. But I don’t see an elite player. Maybe one that can be a #2 with the right partner but for now I see a #4 that’s likely to develop into a #3.

 

[Brian39]

Why? What leads you to believe his trajectory will be a #1-2 d-man in 1-2 season? Do you feel the production his first 10ish games is sustainable?

I think Broberg was closer to a #2 D man than a #4 D man in 2024/25.

His 27 even strength points were tied for 35th among NHL D men and his 8 even strength goals were tied for 20th. That is with him missing 14 games. His pace over the first 15 games isn't sustainable or predictive of what he'll do long term, but he paced for 26 even strength points over the final 53 games of the season. 26 even strength points would have tied him with Burns, Rielly, Sanheim, Fabbro, Hronek, Pionk, Dobson, and Kesselring for 40th among NHL D men. So it wasn't just the hot streak. His offensive production excluding the hot 15 game start was that of a #2 D man.

His 18:40 a night at even strength was 66th among NHL D men, which would put him right at the top of the group of #3 in terms of usage.

His +/- was 19th among NHL D men and was 1st on our blue line. His expected +/- was +7 and he had the 2nd best xGF% of Blues D men at 52.11%. That was despite usage that leaned towards defensive starts. He didn't just produce. He defended well on the 2nd pair.

He was the Blues #4 this year by time on ice per game, but I think that was more a function of the Blues having a glut of LHD and no RHD behind Parayko/Faulk. I thought he outplayed Faulk more often than not this year. Broberg played against a higher quality of competition than Faulk, had 7 more even strength points (despite playing 10 fewer games), had better underlying metrics across the board despite slightly more D zone starts, and got vastly better results (+21 vs -9).

There is no doubt that Parayko and Fowler were our #1 and #2 D men this year. But I'd say that Broberg was our #3 when you factor both usage and performance. I don't see Faulk's extra 26 even strength seconds per game and his PP usage as enough to outweigh the pretty hefty gap in underlying and actual results. I don't think that Broberg is going to become a do-it-all #1, but I think he is way more likely to become a #2 (who is either the 2nd guy on a top pair or the guy on a 2nd pair) than a #3-4.

 

[BlueDream]

Fair response. While points matter, usage matters more to me. He was our #4 this year and while he has room to grow, based on his characteristics (strengths and weaknesses) I see him being mostly a 2nd pairing guy for the bulk of his career. I see him as a jack of all trades, master of none type. Someone that is solid in most areas but really no standout traits other than the skating. He’s not very aggressive and I find his hockey sense to be average. And there’s a reason he’s not on the PP. He’s not very good at it. He’s solid in all areas so I’d assume he’d be fine on the PP but pretty much never be an ideal option as he just doesn’t have the playmaking abilities or top level hockey sense you’d want in a PPQB.

Don’t get me wrong, I really like Broberg. And think he was an absolute steal for a 2nd round pick. But I don’t see an elite player. Maybe one that can be a #2 with the right partner but for now I see a #4 that’s likely to develop into a #3.

Can’t understand the logic of calling him a #4 when he was the best defender on his own pairing. That is already what a #3 is, there is no need to “develop” into one. Faulk stepped up when Parayko went down but make no mistake, he was not good before that. Broberg largely carried their pairing for long stretches of the season and was consistently solid defensively. The other team just doesn’t score much when he’s on the ice. Combine that with his 30 points in a shortened season and I’m not sure I see any #4 defensemen in this league that are performing that way. Any further development would put him at top pairing status, if he’s not already there.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Why? What leads you to believe his trajectory will be a #1-2 d-man in 1-2 season? Do you feel the production his first 10ish games is sustainable?

What makes you think he’s a 3-4 guy?

Never mind. I read your other post.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

I know analytics aren’t the end all be all but I’m not overly concerned about Broberg not being worth locking up myself.