Raptors Discussion: v75| Season of Kawhi Part 1: Greatest expectations

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

 

[Yamazaki]

If we can some how trade Lowry for jimmy butler I’d cry tears of joy

 

[The Nemesis]

If we can some how trade Lowry for jimmy butler I’d cry tears of joy

I wouldn't. That's a downgrade. Partially because we currently have one of the 3-5 best PGs in a league that is more PG driven than ever and partially because Butler is a downgrade on offence and not enough of an upgrade on defence to offset the difference.

besides that, then we're turning over the keys to the team to Wright (who I love, but who is not a starting PG in this league now and probably ever) and VanVleet (who's really more of a combo guard than a proper facilitator.)

Those two are great bench pieces, but the starting lineup takes a hit

Gross. Offensively Monroe is like Valanciunas before Valanciunas figured out he could run the floor and hit some 3s. And defensively he's a big time rebounder and not a whole lot else. If we're going to buy cheap defensive Cs, I'd rather see if we can bring back Bebe at a reduced rate. He may have no offence to speak up beyond breaks and putbacks, but he can pass the ball and he's a much better interior defender.

 

[horner]

Iam not knowledgeable basketball .

If Derozan had played for another organization would he have been given as much leaway and money.

It seems as though he was allowed to do as he pleased.

It seems as though he never wished to play defence?

 

[Gary Nylund]

You guys who want to trade Lowry need to give you heads a shake. We might have Kawhi for only one year and the idea is to be the best team we can possibly be this year. I'll let you connect the dots from there.

Lowry speaks his mind sometimes and it's understandable he's upset. As long as on the court Lowry continues to be awesome I don't care if off the court Lowry makes the occasional honest comment to the media.

 

[hockeywiz542]

LAS VEGAS – As the dust settles from the aftermath of biggest trade in franchise history and the opening-night roster begins to take shape, Raptors head coach Nick Nurse has done the math.

Toronto currently employ five players that started at least 60 games last season, and that’s not including newly acquired superstar Kawhi Leonard, who has started all but two of the 343 games he’s played since his sophomore campaign.

“We’ve got six starters right now,” Nurse told TSN and the Toronto Star in an extensive interview from Las Vegas this week. “We’ve got six guys that are used to starting, and we’ve got probably three more that could start, maybe more.”

It remains more of a luxury than a problem – the Raptors were one of the NBA’s deepest teams last season and have arguably gotten more talented over the summer – but it will be an interesting challenge for the first-year head coach to navigate.

“I’ve already talked to a couple of these guys about it, but I want us to be more open minded other than saying, ‘Well, I’m a starter, and I’m not going to be happy unless I start every game’. If we all [say] that then we’ll certainly have somebody that’s unhappy. Somebody [would] be really unhappy, because we have six and I think we can only start five, right?”

Correct.

As it stands now, Leonard and Kyle Lowry – the team’s all-stars – are the only two players locked into a starting spot, according to Nurse. The other three spots are still up for grabs, and could even remain fluid throughout the season.

Of the other four players with starting experience – Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas, OG Anunoby and Danny Green – you might think one of Anunoby or Green would be the logical odd man out. Soon-to-be-sophomore Anunoby is the youngest of the four, and Green is newest to the team, and is coming off a groin injury that slowed him in San Antonio last season.

 

[Stephen]

He was an average player who knew he was going to get paid like a star as long as he stayed in Toronto. He was the face of the franchise and had a comfy life. Media never held him responsible for what he didn't do well, they only kissed his ass as they should seeing as the Network(s) owns the team.
There are probably a lot of good players in the league if given the same minutes and touches could put up comparable numbers to DeRozan.

Derozan had a kind of Rick Nash gig over here in Toronto, but his anger at being traded isn't something you normally see in pro sports anywhere.

 

[Stylizer1]

Derozan had a kind of Rick Nash gig over here in Toronto, but his anger at being traded isn't something you normally see in pro sports anywhere.

It seems like he is trying to hurt the franchise reputation more than anything. He comes across as a very selfish person. I still can't get over how he acted on the bench during the playoffs when he was benched in the 4th and the team came back.

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

I wouldn't. That's a downgrade. Partially because we currently have one of the 3-5 best PGs in a league that is more PG driven than ever and partially because Butler is a downgrade on offence and not enough of an upgrade on defence to offset the difference.

besides that, then we're turning over the keys to the team to Wright (who I love, but who is not a starting PG in this league now and probably ever) and VanVleet (who's really more of a combo guard than a proper facilitator.)

Those two are great bench pieces, but the starting lineup takes a hit

It's a good debate but if we were offered Butler for Lowry, it's a no brainer for me. Also keep in mind that Butler is 3 1/2 years younger. That's not to say Lowry isn't great but it's to show Butler is better. Having a great PG isn't as important when your SG and SF are Butler and Leonard.

Butler 17-18

TS%: .590
PER: 23.7
PPG: 22.2
APG: 4.9
RPG: 5.3
Diff Net ORTG: +13.2
RPM: 6.39

Lowry 17-18

TS%: .598
PER: 19.5
PPG: 16.2
APG: 6.9
RPG: 5.6
Diff Net ORTG: -0.9
RPM: 5.18

 

[The Nemesis]

It's a good debate but if we were offered Butler for Lowry, it's a no brainer for me. Also keep in mind that Butler is 3 1/2 years younger. That's not to say Lowry isn't great but it's to show Butler is better. Having a great PG isn't as important when your SG and SF are Butler and Leonard.

Butler 17-18

TS%: .590
PER: 23.7
PPG: 22.2
APG: 4.9
RPG: 5.3
Diff Net ORTG: +13.2
RPM: 6.39

Lowry 17-18

TS%: .598
PER: 19.5
PPG: 16.2
APG: 6.9
RPG: 5.6
Diff Net ORTG: -0.9
RPM: 5.18

I don't like looking at it on a 1-year basis. I also feel that it's different because Butler being 2nd banana to Towns is different from Lowry vs DeRozan because of the positional difference (PG as a more deferential position ceding to another backcourt guy vs a SG giving ground to a frontcourt guy)

2015-16 through 2017-18

Butler
GP: 202
MP: 7447

Advanced
PER: 23.4
TS: .580
USG: 25.3%
OWS: 23.6
DWS: 8.2
WS: 31.9
WS/48: .205
BPM: 5.4
VORP: 13.9

Per 36min
REB: 5.1 (1.4+4.1)
AST: 5.0
STL: 1.8
TOV: 1.9
PTS: 21.9

----------------------------------------

Lowry
GP: 215
MP: 7605

Advanced
PER: 21.5
TS: .598
USG: 24.3
OWS: 22.8
DWS: 9.1
WS: 31.9
WS/48: .201
BPM: 6.4
VORP: 16.2

Per 36min
REB: 5.1 (0.8+4.3)
AST: 6.9
STL: 1.6
TOV: 2.8
PTS: 20.1

Butler has the edge in PER, slight edge in OWS and WS/48, and is a superior scorer.

Lowry is a better shooter, more overall contribution by BPM and VORP, a somewhat surprising lead in DWS, and is a much better playmaker.

The downgrade on offence is mostly because Lowry does more things better than Butler does. Just like Butler's lack of superiority on defensive metrics is mitigated by the fact that as a wing he provides more utility and versatility as a defender.

I also feel like the age difference is immaterial because Butler is a pending free agent. Having more tread on his tires is less useful to the Raptors if he's not going to be here in a couple seasons.

Mostly I just believe that Lowry is more useful to the team as constructed and the system as defined by Nurse. They need ball-movement. They need playmaking. It's a system that relies on the kinds of things that Lowry does better than Butler and is better aided by the bonus of being able to transition from Lowry on the starting unit to Wright running the show for the bench mob. Sub out Lowry for Butler, now your units are:

Wright - Butler - Leonard - Siakam - Valanciunas
and
VanVleet - Green - Powell - Anunoby - Ibaka

with Miles as a shooting specialist and probably Lorenzo Brown as the 3rd PG/12th man.

Don't get me wrong, it's still good, but I prefer

Lowry - Green - Leonard - Siakam -Valanciunas
Wright - Vanvleet - Powell - Anunoby - Ibaka

and still likely running Miles/Brown as your specialists/deep bench unit

Both versions of the team would be fearsome, but if Kawhi bolts after a year, I also like the flexibility of having Lowry at the head of the fire-sale trade chips to remake the team around the younger kids. In the Butler scenario if Kawhi leaves, Butler probably does as well and then we're really hosed because the only saleable assets left will be Valanciunas (middling value on a presumptive player option that I can't see him declining) and Ibaka's expiring deal.

 

[zeke]

butler for lowry would be interesting. i'd probably go for it.

similar level players, but Butler is significantly younger, and imo Fred is legit.

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

I don't like looking at it on a 1-year basis. I also feel that it's different because Butler being 2nd banana to Towns is different from Lowry vs DeRozan because of the positional difference (PG as a more deferential position ceding to another backcourt guy vs a SG giving ground to a frontcourt guy)

2015-16 through 2017-18

Butler
GP: 202
MP: 7447

Advanced
PER: 23.4
TS: .580
USG: 25.3%
OWS: 23.6
DWS: 8.2
WS: 31.9
WS/48: .205
BPM: 5.4
VORP: 13.9

Per 36min
REB: 5.1 (1.4+4.1)
AST: 5.0
STL: 1.8
TOV: 1.9
PTS: 21.9

----------------------------------------

Lowry
GP: 215
MP: 7605

Advanced
PER: 21.5
TS: .598
USG: 24.3
OWS: 22.8
DWS: 9.1
WS: 31.9
WS/48: .201
BPM: 6.4
VORP: 16.2

Per 36min
REB: 5.1 (0.8+4.3)
AST: 6.9
STL: 1.6
TOV: 2.8
PTS: 20.1

Butler has the edge in PER, slight edge in OWS and WS/48, and is a superior scorer.

Lowry is a better shooter, more overall contribution by BPM and VORP, a somewhat surprising lead in DWS, and is a much better playmaker.

The downgrade on offence is mostly because Lowry does more things better than Butler does. Just like Butler's lack of superiority on defensive metrics is mitigated by the fact that as a wing he provides more utility and versatility as a defender.

I also feel like the age difference is immaterial because Butler is a pending free agent. Having more tread on his tires is less useful to the Raptors if he's not going to be here in a couple seasons.

Mostly I just believe that Lowry is more useful to the team as constructed and the system as defined by Nurse. They need ball-movement. They need playmaking. It's a system that relies on the kinds of things that Lowry does better than Butler and is better aided by the bonus of being able to transition from Lowry on the starting unit to Wright running the show for the bench mob. Sub out Lowry for Butler, now your units are:

Wright - Butler - Leonard - Siakam - Valanciunas
and
VanVleet - Green - Powell - Anunoby - Ibaka

with Miles as a shooting specialist and probably Lorenzo Brown as the 3rd PG/12th man.

Don't get me wrong, it's still good, but I prefer

Lowry - Green - Leonard - Siakam -Valanciunas
Wright - Vanvleet - Powell - Anunoby - Ibaka

and still likely running Miles/Brown as your specialists/deep bench unit

Both versions of the team would be fearsome, but if Kawhi bolts after a year, I also like the flexibility of having Lowry at the head of the fire-sale trade chips to remake the team around the younger kids. In the Butler scenario if Kawhi leaves, Butler probably does as well and then we're really hosed because the only saleable assets left will be Valanciunas (middling value on a presumptive player option that I can't see him declining) and Ibaka's expiring deal.

Using 3 years of data is a good way to show what they've been but not what they will be. I think it has to be taken into consideration that Butler is over 3 years younger than Lowry. Even if it's for 2 years, I'd rather have someone from 29-30 than someone from 32-34. Just an example, just based on eye test, you can already see a decline in Lowry's defense (1 on 1 specifically). That's why I prefer using the most recent season.

I see Butler's advantage over Lowry defensively bigger than Lowry's advantage over Butler offensively. Butler and Lowry's TS% were close last season but Butler was doing it at a higher volume. Lowry is a better shooter, slightly better playmaker but I think Butler is a better scorer. I think Lowry and Butler's team defense is about equal but maybe a slight edge to Lowry. However, Butler is the better 1 on 1 defender and like you mention provides more versatility.

A Wright/FVV-Butler-Leonard is the best 1-2-3 defensive trio in the league and it's not even close. Any switching strategies other teams have is pretty much useless because the versatility is insane. It also helps someone like Leonard from being overworked on defense because you can slide Butler in and you're not losing much.

Don't underrate Butler as a playmaker either. IMO it's actually not far off from Lowry. Minny overplayed Wiggins (who loves ISO ball) and Teague (had the ball in his hands way too much). Butler-KAT PnR was money. On offence, I do concede that Lowry's shooting is crucial as he doesn't need the ball as much to provide value.

I'd go

FVV-Butler-Leonard-OG-JV
Wright-Green-Miles-Siakam-Ibaka

Having Butler and Leonard, a PG rotation of FVV and Wright is not a big deal. FVV just needs to be LeBron's Mario Chalmers but obviously he's better than Chalmers.

You have some snipers in Green and Miles off the bench. Ibaka can shoot too. Siakam stays on the bench where his playmaking is displayed more with Wright being the primary ball handler. It's also not like you have to play the same 5 man unit all the time, you can let Kawhi play with the 2nd unit to add in another ball handler.

Again, I love the team as it is now (zero complaints) but I'd like it a bit more with Butler (if that opportunity were came up).

 

[Phion Keneuf]

I’d trade Lowry for Butler in a heartbeat.

 

[Stylizer1]

I’d trade Lowry for Butler in a heartbeat.

And what would you be willing to add to make that happen? Getting a 6'8 SG for a 6'0 PG who is older and scores less is going cost a lot more than a 1 for 1 deal. + Lowry's contract, negotiations are starting with Anunoby for sure.

It would be a move the Raps have to make because they have to get bigger.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Is it me or is Lowry a big child? He looks pathetic it that interview and not a way for a grown man who makes millions to carry himself.

Can you imagine if Marleau (veteran leader on the team) said he didn't know if he talked to Tavares after he signed.

 

[Stylizer1]

Is it me or is Lowry a big child? He looks pathetic it that interview and not a way for a grown man who makes millions to carry himself.

Can you imagine if Marleau (veteran leader on the team) said he didn't know if he talked to Tavares after he signed.

Lowry doesn't care about the media and the spin they put on everything. When it comes to playing basketball he is a baller and the type of attitude you want on the court. Against Cleveland he was the only one taking it to them. Bringing in Green and Leonard i think will help take the pressure of him and allow him to have better options to get the ball to. Teams would focus on him and DeFrozan all day long.

 

[tp71]

Is it me or is Lowry a big child? He looks pathetic it that interview and not a way for a grown man who makes millions to carry himself.

Can you imagine if Marleau (veteran leader on the team) said he didn't know if he talked to Tavares after he signed.

I took it more of a joke that Kawhi just doesn't like to talk a lot more so than he hasn't actually talked to him because he's mad.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Lowry doesn't care about the media and the spin they put on everything. When it comes to playing basketball he is a baller and the type of attitude you want on the court. Against Cleveland he was the only one taking it to them. Bringing in Green and Leonard i think will help take the pressure of him and allow him to have better options to get the ball to. Teams would focus on him and DeFrozan all day long.

There is no spin. He looks like a damn fool.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I count 8 starters for 5 spots....and none of them is named Serge.

 

[BlueForever75]

I count 8 starters for 5 spots....and none of them is named Serge.

I agree. Raps have 8 players that can start in the NBA for the majority of teams not named the Golden State Warriors.

 

[Bluelines]

Is it me or is Lowry a big child? He looks pathetic it that interview and not a way for a grown man who makes millions to carry himself.

Can you imagine if Marleau (veteran leader on the team) said he didn't know if he talked to Tavares after he signed.

Dude kinda has a chip on his shoulder, IMO he's the kind of person that has to be angry at something or someone to be able to breathe.

Just an angry "little" man.

 

[Puckstuff]

If we can get Butler without giving up Kyle, Kawhi, OG, Sikiam or Jonas, omg. Green, Ibaka, Wright, Miles, 1st, 2nd, FVV all assets i'm fine moving in some combination

 

[Stylizer1]

Kevin Durant is going to come to Toronto after next season and team up with Khawi. Weed will be legal and Durant will be in heaven.

 

[BAM]

Kevin Durant is going to come to Toronto after next season and team up with Khawi. Weed will be legal and Durant will be in heaven.

He can stay in the Bay for that if that's his thing.

 

[Stylizer1]

He can stay in the Bay for that if that's his thing.

But he can't make the max there.