Confirmed with Link: Utah acquires Mikhail Sergachev (TBL) for Conor Geekie, JJ Moser, 2025 2nd, 2024 7th (#199)

[rt]

Welcome back!

Thanks! Been on the Clean Hits discord more lately.

 

[Dead Coyote]

The deal for Andersson fell through though.

Where are you seeing this? I don't even remember hearing a rumour that Utah was targeting him, just speculation from fanbases.

 

[Schemp]

Where are you seeing this? I don't even remember hearing a rumour that Utah was targeting him, just speculation from fanbases.

Speculation on my part because of knowing the Flames and Utah were in negotiations with the 6th pick and most assuredly RA was mentioned as well as their 9th OA. That was the best opportunity for it to happen and it didn't!

 

[TheLegend]

Thanks! Been on the Clean Hits discord more lately.

You’ve been living there…. I saw the tent.

 

[DustyDangler]

Block out the names and the faces and which card would you be most glad to have?

 

[Mangosteen]

Dusty the one I don't get is penalties. The lower the percentage the more it gets?

 

[DustyDangler]

Dusty the one I don't get is penalties. The lower the percentage the more it gets?

Yes. The lower the % the worse they are compared to their peers. So this would be a weak category for Sergachev.

Player Card Explainer

With so many players being signed or traded, I’ve been posting a lot of Tweets like this one:

jfresh.substack.com

Edit: compared instead of according

 

[Dead Coyote]

Block out the names and the faces and which card would you be most glad to have?

Ah yes the good ol JFresh hockey card to compare players.

This, btw, is using data from a specific person and not an aggregate, using WAR (which is a decent but not amazing advanced stat) and SOLELY compares D-men in the league, except the data isn't readily available unless you're JFresh or TopDown themselves, because all you get are individual statistics on players, you never see who the stats say are at the top or bottom of the league.

Hey, here's another guy with extremely similar stats as Hedman/Sergachev who didn't get any PP or PK time at all! But he's 7m less than those players and the only stat much different from them is his Quality of Competition! Maybe with a bigger role he'd have even better stats?

Hey, Jeff Skinner has some of the best all round stats of any forward, maybe he should be taken a look at?

Or maybe Debrusk?

I mean he's also one of the best all round forwards in the league right?

Here's Lindholm's WAR rankings btw.

And here's Durzi's.

Oh, and here's Valimaki's.

Was Valimaki our best defender at even strength last year? These stats sure seem to say so. I mean he also has a 93% projected WAR for next season which is far higher than any other defender on our team. I might add that these stats are 3 years of weighted average data.

Valimaki's last 3 seasons:

17 in 65
34 in 78
2 in 9

Durzi's last 3 seasons:
41 in 76
38 in 72
27 in 64

Mosers last 3 seasons:
26 in 80
31 in 82
15 in 43

Sergachev
19 in 34
64 in 79
38 in 78

So why is it that Valimaki is 1% difference than Sergachev in EV offense despite having so many less points?

Here are there head to head stats last 3 years btw. Valimaki has 16 PPP over the last 3 years, Sergachev has 41. At even strength Sergachev has 15 + 63, while Valimaki has 5 + 32. If you wanted to prorate the same amount of games for both Valimaki would have ~7 goals and ~40 assists at ES and ~20 PPP which would total about 70.

I'm a huge fan of advanced stats in general but you can never get the whole picture of a player just from advanced stats. They should only ever be used to support the eye test or give more context towards a player's performance. Also hate obfuscating data like JFresh does.

I would encourage anyone who is interested in advanced stats to take a look at naturalstattrick, moneypuck, or any of the other free to use advanced stat sites to get a better look at things. One thing I like to do personally is look at on ice sv% (how many shots are saved while the player is on the ice) and on ice SH% (how many shots are goals while player is on the ice) and also look at rates and relative (quality of competition and teammates) stats for these as well. Gives a semi decent example of players who were highly influential to their team, both good and bad, and is also a similar indicator towards puck possession as Corsi/Fenwick is.

You really want to be both looking at the player on the ice playing and also looking at advanced stats at the same time, and that's a lot of the problem with the advanced stats community. If you only look at advanced stats you may go "Wow! Matt Grzelcyk has the highest On Ice SV% of any d-man over the last 3 years with a decent amount of GP! He must be an incredible defensive d-man! His FF, Corsi, and xGF% are all also pretty solid top 2 numbers!" then you go look at what other fans are saying about him "Worst defender in the league. Can't believe this guy is still in the NHL. Great puck mover but can't defend and is awful without the puck" or you go watch him get pushed around and manhandled or injured or playing worse because of a big hit because he's so small and soft.

For the record WAR (Wins above Replacement) is literally a comparative stat only that aims to measure how much better a player is than someone else who would replace them in the lineup. The problem is that while it works really well in baseball (where it originated), hockey is a much less individual sport with much less individual stats (goals are the most individual stat, followed by possession, followed by assists, whereas baseball has RBI, Pitches, HR, Bunts, Flyballs, Fouls, bases advanced, etc as individual statistics) and most of the time advanced stats users prefer to use Corsi and Fenwick (both indicators of puck possession and time spent in OZ and DZone) instead because they generally give us a better view of a player individually than WAR does. We can say that say, Evgeni Malkin is a better EV offensive producer than 99% of NHL hockey players, but that doesn't really tell us anything about the player himself, because there is a very large statistical difference between Malkin and the bottom of the NHL 4th line barrel.

The advanced stats that go into JFresh's cards are all generally pretty good, but extremely hard to track and verify because there's a) no automated system to track those stats and b) the stats can be somewhat subjective- if for example a player in the NZ dumps the puck in and it's called for icing but we think it touched a stick do we give the d-man on the ice a rejected zone entry? There are all kinds of those types of situations in hockey where sticks or skates or just the glass or the player can interfere with a play (whether accidentally or not) and you have to make the decision yourself what you're counting. The NHL doesn't even always get it right with tipped sticks in front of the net, and they have way more access to shit than we do.

This is why you can get a degree in this shit and why guys like Chayka are given a chance. If you can solve advanced stats you can make your team and scouting department a hell of a lot better. But we're not even close to that point yet.

Yes. The lower the % the worse they are compared to their peers. So this would be a weak category for Sergachev.

Player Card Explainer

With so many players being signed or traded, I’ve been posting a lot of Tweets like this one:

jfresh.substack.com

Edit: compared instead of according

You know what that stat is? It's comparing how many penalties are drawn/taken compared to their peers. That's it. Sergachev has 128 PIM over the last 3 seasons but his rankings for penalties drawn is 36 / 57 / 191 (this year). Conversely his PIM ranks 200 (this year) / 42 / 26 (higher is better).

Looking at all 3 seasons again:
Durzi is at 175 for PIM and 33 for penalties Drawn.
Moser is at 77 for PIM and 80 for penalties drawn
Valimaki is at 66 for PIM and 110 for penalties drawn.
Sergachev is 141 for PIM and at 79 for penalties drawn.

Roughly speaking that means of the ~200ish full time D in the league (it's just a nice even number alright sue me) this stat would look something like this:

PIM among D (higher is better)
Durzi: 12%
Moser: 61%
Valimaki: 67%
Sergachev: 29%

Penalties Drawn (lower is better)
Durzi: 16%
Moser: 40%
Valimaki: 55%
Sergachev: 39%

Which means if we're comparing these two stats equally (and assuming my math is correct here cause I'm not quite sure it is)
Durzi - 48%
Moser: 61%
Valimaki: 56%
Sergachev: 45%

This is how they compare to their peers (roughly).

Ghostisbehere and Makar are two examples of players with a very high stat here, both around ~90%. My stats are a little different than JFresh's, probably because I couldn't be bothered to actually have a complete dataset with all players and their PIM and PD in an excel sheet that totals it up for me once I input it. But the stats are similar enough that you can see the same work that goes behind them.

Anyways enjoy the wall of text about advanced stats I'm going back to bed. And I'm not trying to shit on anyone excited for Utah. Just trying to provide context for a lot of these stats.

 

[DustyDangler]

Ah yes the good ol JFresh hockey card to compare players.

This, btw, is using data from a specific person and not an aggregate, using WAR (which is a decent but not amazing advanced stat) and SOLELY compares D-men in the league, except the data isn't readily available unless you're JFresh or TopDown themselves, because all you get are individual statistics on players, you never see who the stats say are at the top or bottom of the league.

View attachment 892379

Hey, here's another guy with extremely similar stats as Hedman/Sergachev who didn't get any PP or PK time at all! But he's 7m less than those players and the only stat much different from them is his Quality of Competition! Maybe with a bigger role he'd have even better stats?

Hey, Jeff Skinner has some of the best all round stats of any forward, maybe he should be taken a look at?

View attachment 892380

Or maybe Debrusk?

View attachment 892383

I mean he's also one of the best all round forwards in the league right?

View attachment 892384

Here's Lindholm's WAR rankings btw.

View attachment 892394

And here's Durzi's.

Oh, and here's Valimaki's.

View attachment 892396

Was Valimaki our best defender at even strength last year? These stats sure seem to say so. I mean he also has a 93% projected WAR for next season which is far higher than any other defender on our team. I might add that these stats are 3 years of weighted average data.

Valimaki's last 3 seasons:

17 in 65
34 in 78
2 in 9

Durzi's last 3 seasons:
41 in 76
38 in 72
27 in 64

Mosers last 3 seasons:
26 in 80
31 in 82
15 in 43

Sergachev
19 in 34
64 in 79
38 in 78

So why is it that Valimaki is 1% difference than Sergachev in EV offense despite having so many less points?

View attachment 892403
Here are there head to head stats last 3 years btw. Valimaki has 16 PPP over the last 3 years, Sergachev has 41. At even strength Sergachev has 15 + 63, while Valimaki has 5 + 32. If you wanted to prorate the same amount of games for both Valimaki would have ~7 goals and ~40 assists at ES and ~20 PPP which would total about 70.

I'm a huge fan of advanced stats in general but you can never get the whole picture of a player just from advanced stats. They should only ever be used to support the eye test or give more context towards a player's performance. Also hate obfuscating data like JFresh does.

I would encourage anyone who is interested in advanced stats to take a look at naturalstattrick, moneypuck, or any of the other free to use advanced stat sites to get a better look at things. One thing I like to do personally is look at on ice sv% (how many shots are saved while the player is on the ice) and on ice SH% (how many shots are goals while player is on the ice) and also look at rates and relative (quality of competition and teammates) stats for these as well. Gives a semi decent example of players who were highly influential to their team, both good and bad, and is also a similar indicator towards puck possession as Corsi/Fenwick is.

You really want to be both looking at the player on the ice playing and also looking at advanced stats at the same time, and that's a lot of the problem with the advanced stats community. If you only look at advanced stats you may go "Wow! Matt Grzelcyk has the highest On Ice SV% of any d-man over the last 3 years with a decent amount of GP! He must be an incredible defensive d-man! His FF, Corsi, and xGF% are all also pretty solid top 2 numbers!" then you go look at what other fans are saying about him "Worst defender in the league. Can't believe this guy is still in the NHL. Great puck mover but can't defend and is awful without the puck" or you go watch him get pushed around and manhandled or injured or playing worse because of a big hit because he's so small and soft.

For the record WAR (Wins above Replacement) is literally a comparative stat only that aims to measure how much better a player is than someone else who would replace them in the lineup. The problem is that while it works really well in baseball (where it originated), hockey is a much less individual sport with much less individual stats (goals are the most individual stat, followed by possession, followed by assists, whereas baseball has RBI, Pitches, HR, Bunts, Flyballs, Fouls, bases advanced, etc as individual statistics) and most of the time advanced stats users prefer to use Corsi and Fenwick (both indicators of puck possession and time spent in OZ and DZone) instead because they generally give us a better view of a player individually than WAR does. We can say that say, Evgeni Malkin is a better EV offensive producer than 99% of NHL hockey players, but that doesn't really tell us anything about the player himself, because there is a very large statistical difference between Malkin and the bottom of the NHL 4th line barrel.

The advanced stats that go into JFresh's cards are all generally pretty good, but extremely hard to track and verify because there's a) no automated system to track those stats and b) the stats can be somewhat subjective- if for example a player in the NZ dumps the puck in and it's called for icing but we think it touched a stick do we give the d-man on the ice a rejected zone entry? There are all kinds of those types of situations in hockey where sticks or skates or just the glass or the player can interfere with a play (whether accidentally or not) and you have to make the decision yourself what you're counting. The NHL doesn't even always get it right with tipped sticks in front of the net, and they have way more access to shit than we do.

This is why you can get a degree in this shit and why guys like Chayka are given a chance. If you can solve advanced stats you can make your team and scouting department a hell of a lot better. But we're not even close to that point yet.


You know what that stat is? It's comparing how many penalties are drawn/taken compared to their peers. That's it. Sergachev has 128 PIM over the last 3 seasons but his rankings for penalties drawn is 36 / 57 / 191 (this year). Conversely his PIM ranks 200 (this year) / 42 / 26 (higher is better).

Looking at all 3 seasons again:
Durzi is at 175 for PIM and 33 for penalties Drawn.
Moser is at 77 for PIM and 80 for penalties drawn
Valimaki is at 66 for PIM and 110 for penalties drawn.
Sergachev is 141 for PIM and at 79 for penalties drawn.

Roughly speaking that means of the ~200ish full time D in the league (it's just a nice even number alright sue me) this stat would look something like this:

PIM among D (higher is better)
Durzi: 12%
Moser: 61%
Valimaki: 67%
Sergachev: 29%

Penalties Drawn (lower is better)
Durzi: 16%
Moser: 40%
Valimaki: 55%
Sergachev: 39%

Which means if we're comparing these two stats equally (and assuming my math is correct here cause I'm not quite sure it is)
Durzi - 48%
Moser: 61%
Valimaki: 56%
Sergachev: 45%

This is how they compare to their peers (roughly).

Ghostisbehere and Makar are two examples of players with a very high stat here, both around ~90%. My stats are a little different than JFresh's, probably because I couldn't be bothered to actually have a complete dataset with all players and their PIM and PD in an excel sheet that totals it up for me once I input it. But the stats are similar enough that you can see the same work that goes behind them.

Anyways enjoy the wall of text about advanced stats I'm going back to bed. And I'm not trying to shit on anyone excited for Utah. Just trying to provide context for a lot of these stats.

Great stuff. Thank you for taking the time.

 

[Jakey53]

Ah yes the good ol JFresh hockey card to compare players.

This, btw, is using data from a specific person and not an aggregate, using WAR (which is a decent but not amazing advanced stat) and SOLELY compares D-men in the league, except the data isn't readily available unless you're JFresh or TopDown themselves, because all you get are individual statistics on players, you never see who the stats say are at the top or bottom of the league.

View attachment 892379

Hey, here's another guy with extremely similar stats as Hedman/Sergachev who didn't get any PP or PK time at all! But he's 7m less than those players and the only stat much different from them is his Quality of Competition! Maybe with a bigger role he'd have even better stats?

Hey, Jeff Skinner has some of the best all round stats of any forward, maybe he should be taken a look at?

View attachment 892380

Or maybe Debrusk?

View attachment 892383

I mean he's also one of the best all round forwards in the league right?

View attachment 892384

Here's Lindholm's WAR rankings btw.

View attachment 892394

And here's Durzi's.

Oh, and here's Valimaki's.

View attachment 892396

Was Valimaki our best defender at even strength last year? These stats sure seem to say so. I mean he also has a 93% projected WAR for next season which is far higher than any other defender on our team. I might add that these stats are 3 years of weighted average data.

Valimaki's last 3 seasons:

17 in 65
34 in 78
2 in 9

Durzi's last 3 seasons:
41 in 76
38 in 72
27 in 64

Mosers last 3 seasons:
26 in 80
31 in 82
15 in 43

Sergachev
19 in 34
64 in 79
38 in 78

So why is it that Valimaki is 1% difference than Sergachev in EV offense despite having so many less points?

View attachment 892403
Here are there head to head stats last 3 years btw. Valimaki has 16 PPP over the last 3 years, Sergachev has 41. At even strength Sergachev has 15 + 63, while Valimaki has 5 + 32. If you wanted to prorate the same amount of games for both Valimaki would have ~7 goals and ~40 assists at ES and ~20 PPP which would total about 70.

I'm a huge fan of advanced stats in general but you can never get the whole picture of a player just from advanced stats. They should only ever be used to support the eye test or give more context towards a player's performance. Also hate obfuscating data like JFresh does.

I would encourage anyone who is interested in advanced stats to take a look at naturalstattrick, moneypuck, or any of the other free to use advanced stat sites to get a better look at things. One thing I like to do personally is look at on ice sv% (how many shots are saved while the player is on the ice) and on ice SH% (how many shots are goals while player is on the ice) and also look at rates and relative (quality of competition and teammates) stats for these as well. Gives a semi decent example of players who were highly influential to their team, both good and bad, and is also a similar indicator towards puck possession as Corsi/Fenwick is.

You really want to be both looking at the player on the ice playing and also looking at advanced stats at the same time, and that's a lot of the problem with the advanced stats community. If you only look at advanced stats you may go "Wow! Matt Grzelcyk has the highest On Ice SV% of any d-man over the last 3 years with a decent amount of GP! He must be an incredible defensive d-man! His FF, Corsi, and xGF% are all also pretty solid top 2 numbers!" then you go look at what other fans are saying about him "Worst defender in the league. Can't believe this guy is still in the NHL. Great puck mover but can't defend and is awful without the puck" or you go watch him get pushed around and manhandled or injured or playing worse because of a big hit because he's so small and soft.

For the record WAR (Wins above Replacement) is literally a comparative stat only that aims to measure how much better a player is than someone else who would replace them in the lineup. The problem is that while it works really well in baseball (where it originated), hockey is a much less individual sport with much less individual stats (goals are the most individual stat, followed by possession, followed by assists, whereas baseball has RBI, Pitches, HR, Bunts, Flyballs, Fouls, bases advanced, etc as individual statistics) and most of the time advanced stats users prefer to use Corsi and Fenwick (both indicators of puck possession and time spent in OZ and DZone) instead because they generally give us a better view of a player individually than WAR does. We can say that say, Evgeni Malkin is a better EV offensive producer than 99% of NHL hockey players, but that doesn't really tell us anything about the player himself, because there is a very large statistical difference between Malkin and the bottom of the NHL 4th line barrel.

The advanced stats that go into JFresh's cards are all generally pretty good, but extremely hard to track and verify because there's a) no automated system to track those stats and b) the stats can be somewhat subjective- if for example a player in the NZ dumps the puck in and it's called for icing but we think it touched a stick do we give the d-man on the ice a rejected zone entry? There are all kinds of those types of situations in hockey where sticks or skates or just the glass or the player can interfere with a play (whether accidentally or not) and you have to make the decision yourself what you're counting. The NHL doesn't even always get it right with tipped sticks in front of the net, and they have way more access to shit than we do.

This is why you can get a degree in this shit and why guys like Chayka are given a chance. If you can solve advanced stats you can make your team and scouting department a hell of a lot better. But we're not even close to that point yet.


You know what that stat is? It's comparing how many penalties are drawn/taken compared to their peers. That's it. Sergachev has 128 PIM over the last 3 seasons but his rankings for penalties drawn is 36 / 57 / 191 (this year). Conversely his PIM ranks 200 (this year) / 42 / 26 (higher is better).

Looking at all 3 seasons again:
Durzi is at 175 for PIM and 33 for penalties Drawn.
Moser is at 77 for PIM and 80 for penalties drawn
Valimaki is at 66 for PIM and 110 for penalties drawn.
Sergachev is 141 for PIM and at 79 for penalties drawn.

Roughly speaking that means of the ~200ish full time D in the league (it's just a nice even number alright sue me) this stat would look something like this:

PIM among D (higher is better)
Durzi: 12%
Moser: 61%
Valimaki: 67%
Sergachev: 29%

Penalties Drawn (lower is better)
Durzi: 16%
Moser: 40%
Valimaki: 55%
Sergachev: 39%

Which means if we're comparing these two stats equally (and assuming my math is correct here cause I'm not quite sure it is)
Durzi - 48%
Moser: 61%
Valimaki: 56%
Sergachev: 45%

This is how they compare to their peers (roughly).

Ghostisbehere and Makar are two examples of players with a very high stat here, both around ~90%. My stats are a little different than JFresh's, probably because I couldn't be bothered to actually have a complete dataset with all players and their PIM and PD in an excel sheet that totals it up for me once I input it. But the stats are similar enough that you can see the same work that goes behind them.

Anyways enjoy the wall of text about advanced stats I'm going back to bed. And I'm not trying to shit on anyone excited for Utah. Just trying to provide context for a lot of these stats.

I was waiting for someone to do this. I agree 100% with what you showed. Good job.

 

[Prarievarg]

Ah yes the good ol JFresh hockey card to compare players.

This, btw, is using data from a specific person and not an aggregate, using WAR (which is a decent but not amazing advanced stat) and SOLELY compares D-men in the league, except the data isn't readily available unless you're JFresh or TopDown themselves, because all you get are individual statistics on players, you never see who the stats say are at the top or bottom of the league.

View attachment 892379

Hey, here's another guy with extremely similar stats as Hedman/Sergachev who didn't get any PP or PK time at all! But he's 7m less than those players and the only stat much different from them is his Quality of Competition! Maybe with a bigger role he'd have even better stats?

Hey, Jeff Skinner has some of the best all round stats of any forward, maybe he should be taken a look at?

View attachment 892380

Or maybe Debrusk?

View attachment 892383

I mean he's also one of the best all round forwards in the league right?

View attachment 892384

Here's Lindholm's WAR rankings btw.

View attachment 892394

And here's Durzi's.

Oh, and here's Valimaki's.

View attachment 892396

Was Valimaki our best defender at even strength last year? These stats sure seem to say so. I mean he also has a 93% projected WAR for next season which is far higher than any other defender on our team. I might add that these stats are 3 years of weighted average data.

Valimaki's last 3 seasons:

17 in 65
34 in 78
2 in 9

Durzi's last 3 seasons:
41 in 76
38 in 72
27 in 64

Mosers last 3 seasons:
26 in 80
31 in 82
15 in 43

Sergachev
19 in 34
64 in 79
38 in 78

So why is it that Valimaki is 1% difference than Sergachev in EV offense despite having so many less points?

View attachment 892403
Here are there head to head stats last 3 years btw. Valimaki has 16 PPP over the last 3 years, Sergachev has 41. At even strength Sergachev has 15 + 63, while Valimaki has 5 + 32. If you wanted to prorate the same amount of games for both Valimaki would have ~7 goals and ~40 assists at ES and ~20 PPP which would total about 70.

I'm a huge fan of advanced stats in general but you can never get the whole picture of a player just from advanced stats. They should only ever be used to support the eye test or give more context towards a player's performance. Also hate obfuscating data like JFresh does.

I would encourage anyone who is interested in advanced stats to take a look at naturalstattrick, moneypuck, or any of the other free to use advanced stat sites to get a better look at things. One thing I like to do personally is look at on ice sv% (how many shots are saved while the player is on the ice) and on ice SH% (how many shots are goals while player is on the ice) and also look at rates and relative (quality of competition and teammates) stats for these as well. Gives a semi decent example of players who were highly influential to their team, both good and bad, and is also a similar indicator towards puck possession as Corsi/Fenwick is.

You really want to be both looking at the player on the ice playing and also looking at advanced stats at the same time, and that's a lot of the problem with the advanced stats community. If you only look at advanced stats you may go "Wow! Matt Grzelcyk has the highest On Ice SV% of any d-man over the last 3 years with a decent amount of GP! He must be an incredible defensive d-man! His FF, Corsi, and xGF% are all also pretty solid top 2 numbers!" then you go look at what other fans are saying about him "Worst defender in the league. Can't believe this guy is still in the NHL. Great puck mover but can't defend and is awful without the puck" or you go watch him get pushed around and manhandled or injured or playing worse because of a big hit because he's so small and soft.

For the record WAR (Wins above Replacement) is literally a comparative stat only that aims to measure how much better a player is than someone else who would replace them in the lineup. The problem is that while it works really well in baseball (where it originated), hockey is a much less individual sport with much less individual stats (goals are the most individual stat, followed by possession, followed by assists, whereas baseball has RBI, Pitches, HR, Bunts, Flyballs, Fouls, bases advanced, etc as individual statistics) and most of the time advanced stats users prefer to use Corsi and Fenwick (both indicators of puck possession and time spent in OZ and DZone) instead because they generally give us a better view of a player individually than WAR does. We can say that say, Evgeni Malkin is a better EV offensive producer than 99% of NHL hockey players, but that doesn't really tell us anything about the player himself, because there is a very large statistical difference between Malkin and the bottom of the NHL 4th line barrel.

The advanced stats that go into JFresh's cards are all generally pretty good, but extremely hard to track and verify because there's a) no automated system to track those stats and b) the stats can be somewhat subjective- if for example a player in the NZ dumps the puck in and it's called for icing but we think it touched a stick do we give the d-man on the ice a rejected zone entry? There are all kinds of those types of situations in hockey where sticks or skates or just the glass or the player can interfere with a play (whether accidentally or not) and you have to make the decision yourself what you're counting. The NHL doesn't even always get it right with tipped sticks in front of the net, and they have way more access to shit than we do.

This is why you can get a degree in this shit and why guys like Chayka are given a chance. If you can solve advanced stats you can make your team and scouting department a hell of a lot better. But we're not even close to that point yet.


You know what that stat is? It's comparing how many penalties are drawn/taken compared to their peers. That's it. Sergachev has 128 PIM over the last 3 seasons but his rankings for penalties drawn is 36 / 57 / 191 (this year). Conversely his PIM ranks 200 (this year) / 42 / 26 (higher is better).

Looking at all 3 seasons again:
Durzi is at 175 for PIM and 33 for penalties Drawn.
Moser is at 77 for PIM and 80 for penalties drawn
Valimaki is at 66 for PIM and 110 for penalties drawn.
Sergachev is 141 for PIM and at 79 for penalties drawn.

Roughly speaking that means of the ~200ish full time D in the league (it's just a nice even number alright sue me) this stat would look something like this:

PIM among D (higher is better)
Durzi: 12%
Moser: 61%
Valimaki: 67%
Sergachev: 29%

Penalties Drawn (lower is better)
Durzi: 16%
Moser: 40%
Valimaki: 55%
Sergachev: 39%

Which means if we're comparing these two stats equally (and assuming my math is correct here cause I'm not quite sure it is)
Durzi - 48%
Moser: 61%
Valimaki: 56%
Sergachev: 45%

This is how they compare to their peers (roughly).

Ghostisbehere and Makar are two examples of players with a very high stat here, both around ~90%. My stats are a little different than JFresh's, probably because I couldn't be bothered to actually have a complete dataset with all players and their PIM and PD in an excel sheet that totals it up for me once I input it. But the stats are similar enough that you can see the same work that goes behind them.

Anyways enjoy the wall of text about advanced stats I'm going back to bed. And I'm not trying to shit on anyone excited for Utah. Just trying to provide context for a lot of these stats.

Great post! Bookmarked

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Less advanced stats……

Good trade - Tampa
Good trade - Utah

Arizona no $ = bad at hockey

Utah lots of $ = good at hockey

 

[kickback256]

Less advanced stats……

Good trade - Tampa
Good trade - Utah

Arizona no $ = bad at hockey

Utah lots of $ = good at hockey

Sums it up pretty damn well. Grateful for the cash-lean times for how they set the rebuild up for the future. Time to start spending just a little lol

 

[Llewzaher]

Got to think and talk about this all day now. Here's where I'm at.

We needed a Sergachev for so many reasons. I think it's very important to have one of our top defenseman locked in at his 8m cap hit for 6 more years. This is going to be important for BA in a forecasting perspective and ensure he doesn't overpay all out forwards before locking up top defensemen. I think Toronto fell into this trap where the got the big names locked up and then looked around and realized there is no coin for the d-core.

We all agreed Hanifin would have been great to help develop the defensemen as they came up. Well now we got a Russian defenseman around the same quality who is younger and may not have hit his ceiling. This is a guy who has never been the true #1 option yet. There's room for more.

The major concern to me is moving Geekie. That part stings because no it feels like its Cooley and Hayton or bust down the middle. Yes, we have other prospects at center but none at the quality Geekie was at. But you have to pay to get so I understand why he was necessary. It's too bad it wasn't a guy like Maccelli or But instead because of our depth at wing. But I think Sergachev is way too valuable to worry about what we could have had with Geekie

I hate losing Geekie as well

One other positive with Sergachev, along with But and Simashev , Utah may become a desirable destination for Russians both playing in the NHL and coming over

 

[Zwui21]

Ah yes the good ol JFresh hockey card to compare players.

This, btw, is using data from a specific person and not an aggregate, using WAR (which is a decent but not amazing advanced stat) and SOLELY compares D-men in the league, except the data isn't readily available unless you're JFresh or TopDown themselves, because all you get are individual statistics on players, you never see who the stats say are at the top or bottom of the league.

View attachment 892379

Hey, here's another guy with extremely similar stats as Hedman/Sergachev who didn't get any PP or PK time at all! But he's 7m less than those players and the only stat much different from them is his Quality of Competition! Maybe with a bigger role he'd have even better stats?

Hey, Jeff Skinner has some of the best all round stats of any forward, maybe he should be taken a look at?

View attachment 892380

Or maybe Debrusk?

View attachment 892383

I mean he's also one of the best all round forwards in the league right?

View attachment 892384

Here's Lindholm's WAR rankings btw.

View attachment 892394

And here's Durzi's.

Oh, and here's Valimaki's.

View attachment 892396

Was Valimaki our best defender at even strength last year? These stats sure seem to say so. I mean he also has a 93% projected WAR for next season which is far higher than any other defender on our team. I might add that these stats are 3 years of weighted average data.

Valimaki's last 3 seasons:

17 in 65
34 in 78
2 in 9

Durzi's last 3 seasons:
41 in 76
38 in 72
27 in 64

Mosers last 3 seasons:
26 in 80
31 in 82
15 in 43

Sergachev
19 in 34
64 in 79
38 in 78

So why is it that Valimaki is 1% difference than Sergachev in EV offense despite having so many less points?

View attachment 892403
Here are there head to head stats last 3 years btw. Valimaki has 16 PPP over the last 3 years, Sergachev has 41. At even strength Sergachev has 15 + 63, while Valimaki has 5 + 32. If you wanted to prorate the same amount of games for both Valimaki would have ~7 goals and ~40 assists at ES and ~20 PPP which would total about 70.

I'm a huge fan of advanced stats in general but you can never get the whole picture of a player just from advanced stats. They should only ever be used to support the eye test or give more context towards a player's performance. Also hate obfuscating data like JFresh does.

I would encourage anyone who is interested in advanced stats to take a look at naturalstattrick, moneypuck, or any of the other free to use advanced stat sites to get a better look at things. One thing I like to do personally is look at on ice sv% (how many shots are saved while the player is on the ice) and on ice SH% (how many shots are goals while player is on the ice) and also look at rates and relative (quality of competition and teammates) stats for these as well. Gives a semi decent example of players who were highly influential to their team, both good and bad, and is also a similar indicator towards puck possession as Corsi/Fenwick is.

You really want to be both looking at the player on the ice playing and also looking at advanced stats at the same time, and that's a lot of the problem with the advanced stats community. If you only look at advanced stats you may go "Wow! Matt Grzelcyk has the highest On Ice SV% of any d-man over the last 3 years with a decent amount of GP! He must be an incredible defensive d-man! His FF, Corsi, and xGF% are all also pretty solid top 2 numbers!" then you go look at what other fans are saying about him "Worst defender in the league. Can't believe this guy is still in the NHL. Great puck mover but can't defend and is awful without the puck" or you go watch him get pushed around and manhandled or injured or playing worse because of a big hit because he's so small and soft.

For the record WAR (Wins above Replacement) is literally a comparative stat only that aims to measure how much better a player is than someone else who would replace them in the lineup. The problem is that while it works really well in baseball (where it originated), hockey is a much less individual sport with much less individual stats (goals are the most individual stat, followed by possession, followed by assists, whereas baseball has RBI, Pitches, HR, Bunts, Flyballs, Fouls, bases advanced, etc as individual statistics) and most of the time advanced stats users prefer to use Corsi and Fenwick (both indicators of puck possession and time spent in OZ and DZone) instead because they generally give us a better view of a player individually than WAR does. We can say that say, Evgeni Malkin is a better EV offensive producer than 99% of NHL hockey players, but that doesn't really tell us anything about the player himself, because there is a very large statistical difference between Malkin and the bottom of the NHL 4th line barrel.

The advanced stats that go into JFresh's cards are all generally pretty good, but extremely hard to track and verify because there's a) no automated system to track those stats and b) the stats can be somewhat subjective- if for example a player in the NZ dumps the puck in and it's called for icing but we think it touched a stick do we give the d-man on the ice a rejected zone entry? There are all kinds of those types of situations in hockey where sticks or skates or just the glass or the player can interfere with a play (whether accidentally or not) and you have to make the decision yourself what you're counting. The NHL doesn't even always get it right with tipped sticks in front of the net, and they have way more access to shit than we do.

This is why you can get a degree in this shit and why guys like Chayka are given a chance. If you can solve advanced stats you can make your team and scouting department a hell of a lot better. But we're not even close to that point yet.


You know what that stat is? It's comparing how many penalties are drawn/taken compared to their peers. That's it. Sergachev has 128 PIM over the last 3 seasons but his rankings for penalties drawn is 36 / 57 / 191 (this year). Conversely his PIM ranks 200 (this year) / 42 / 26 (higher is better).

Looking at all 3 seasons again:
Durzi is at 175 for PIM and 33 for penalties Drawn.
Moser is at 77 for PIM and 80 for penalties drawn
Valimaki is at 66 for PIM and 110 for penalties drawn.
Sergachev is 141 for PIM and at 79 for penalties drawn.

Roughly speaking that means of the ~200ish full time D in the league (it's just a nice even number alright sue me) this stat would look something like this:

PIM among D (higher is better)
Durzi: 12%
Moser: 61%
Valimaki: 67%
Sergachev: 29%

Penalties Drawn (lower is better)
Durzi: 16%
Moser: 40%
Valimaki: 55%
Sergachev: 39%

Which means if we're comparing these two stats equally (and assuming my math is correct here cause I'm not quite sure it is)
Durzi - 48%
Moser: 61%
Valimaki: 56%
Sergachev: 45%

This is how they compare to their peers (roughly).

Ghostisbehere and Makar are two examples of players with a very high stat here, both around ~90%. My stats are a little different than JFresh's, probably because I couldn't be bothered to actually have a complete dataset with all players and their PIM and PD in an excel sheet that totals it up for me once I input it. But the stats are similar enough that you can see the same work that goes behind them.

Anyways enjoy the wall of text about advanced stats I'm going back to bed. And I'm not trying to shit on anyone excited for Utah. Just trying to provide context for a lot of these stats.

Quality content, what a great post!

 

[VaCaps Fan]

Great post!