Using Sports Psychology to Identify Sleepers in the draft

[HuGo Sham]

As we grind into summer, I thought this was a super interesting article in French about sports psychologists in Quebec creating a predictive model for scouts on how to identify potential draftees that could become elite. They've created a psychological profile of potential success based on moments on the ice where (among other things) successful players take control of their own learning. It's a cool read. They worked with the Remparts and I think now maybe wirh the Habs.

https://www.tvasports.ca/2023/07/11/ils-arrivent-a-predire-les-vols-du-repechage

and here's their paper from the journal of sports sciences

Identification of “sleeping” talent using psychological characteristics in junior elite ice-hockey players

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02640414.2023.2230709

Click to read more...

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Spatial recognition tests would also probably help decypher the sleepers.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

As we grind into summer, I thought this was a super interesting article in French about sports psychologists in Quebec creating a predictive model for scouts on how to identify potential draftees that could become elite. They've created a psychological profile of potential success based on moments on the ice where (among other things) successful players take control of their own learning. It's a cool read. They worked with the Remparts and I think now maybe wirh the Habs.

https://www.tvasports.ca/2023/07/11/ils-arrivent-a-predire-les-vols-du-repechage

and here's their paper from the journal of sports sciences

Identification of “sleeping” talent using psychological characteristics in junior elite ice-hockey players

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02640414.2023.2230709

This characteristic, of economy of movement and visual efficiency, is true in many walks of life. It separates an expert surgeon from a novice as well. The expert surgeon knows which problems to anticipate, based on a superior recognition of the anatomy (and its variation), and perhaps a classification into one of a number of templates. Meanwhile the novice exhibits eccentric, chaotic visual path and surgical gestures. Similarly, the superior hockey IQ probably does that on the fly with game scenes: a current defensive or offensive deployment reminds him (or her) of another one encountered before, which elicits a response that optimally applies to this scene, inspired by the template. (This is what I try to provide in surgery simulation: a means of accelerating the learning curve for novices...)

 

[Skip Bayless]

But how does this affect Lebron's legacy?

 

[WeThreeKings]

I'll just beat everyone to the hilarious punchlines that are fresh and original.

Habs already do this.. they do a cooking test!!

Habs already do this.. they do a culture test!!!

 

[Gustave]

I'll just beat everyone to the hilarious punchlines that are fresh and original.

Habs already do this.. they do a cooking test!!

Habs already do this.. they do a culture test!!!

Meh, you have to acknowledge that the sell job on culture would've pissed you off to no end if Bergy and the biceps crew were still around

 

[WeThreeKings]

Meh, you have to acknowledge that the sell job on culture would've pissed you off to no end if Bergy and the biceps crew were still around

Yeah after 10 years of incompetence. I'm not about to project from the previous regime onto this regime.

 

[Zilo44]

I’d rather do the Therrien test. Can he grind ?

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

Meh, it all sounds a bit wonky to me, but I'm all for having as much intel as possible and for basing our hockey decisions on more than just ''gut feeling''. As long as it's not the only well we're pulling water from, I'm fine with every advance stats and weirdo mathematics we can use.

 

[cphabs]

This characteristic, of economy of movement and visual efficiency, is true in many walks of life. It separates an expert surgeon from a novice as well. The expert surgeon knows which problems to anticipate, based on a superior recognition of the anatomy (and its variation), and perhaps a classification into one of a number of templates. Meanwhile the novice exhibits eccentric, chaotic visual path and surgical gestures. Similarly, the superior hockey IQ probably does that on the fly with game scenes: a current defensive or offensive deployment reminds him (or her) of another one encountered before, which elicits a response that optimally applies to this scene, inspired by the template. (This is what I try to provide in surgery simulation: a means of accelerating the learning curve for novices...)

It’s called experience AKA wisdom…

 

[SergeConstantin74]

They say Remparts picked a player later in the 2022 Draft using the model who was eventually a nice surprise in their last camp. I wonder who that is.

Their 4th round pick Vincent Murray made the team and we could say it was a nice surprise he made it as a 16 yo. But the article makes it sound they tried it later in the draft. Murray was their first pick of the entire draft. I don't think it was him. Vincent Murray at eliteprospects.com

I looked it up who from their 2022 Draft were in the last cuts at the camp :

Last cut from the 2022 Draft was Vincent Saint-Aubin : Vincent Saint-Aubin at eliteprospects.com

I remember Saint-Aubin doing really well at the camp.

The cuts a few days before him :

Marc-Olivier Roy Marc-Olivier Roy at eliteprospects.com
Justin Duval Justin Duval at eliteprospects.com
Alexandre Desmarais Alexandre Desmarais at eliteprospects.com

 

[DAChampion]

I believe in psychology but I'm skeptical that one can fully understand a 17 year old's long-term psychology from a couple interviews, etc.

 

[BLONG7]

I believe in psychology but I'm skeptical that one can fully understand a 17 year old's long-term psychology from a couple interviews, etc.

Absolutely agree.
There are things that can happen to a 17-18 year old along the way before they are drafted or after they are drafted.
A very difficult thing to put your fingers on...................the kids who succeed to be NHL players, are the ones with the most drive, and motivation.

How to determine that, when they are so young, is a tough one....

 

[Sorinth]

I believe in psychology but I'm skeptical that one can fully understand a 17 year old's long-term psychology from a couple interviews, etc.

From the abstract it seems like it's not about getting a psychological profile of the 17 year old. They brought up "higher self-regulation planning, and had distinguishable gaze behaviour (fewer fixations on more AOIs) when performing a video-based decision-making task"

For gaze behaviour, it is something that should be straightforward to test/measure in a relatively quick time period. And it does make sense that it would lead to better results as it's no doubt a component of hockey iq.

For self-regulation planning, it makes sense that as a characteristic it would lead to better results, but having only read the abstract I'm not sure how exactly they tested for it, so you may have a point here if it was done via a couple interviews. I doubt the good ole marshmellow test works with teens the same way it does with children. Altough I find it very interesting that this was seen as an important indicator since it directly relates to Slafkovsky with the whole going to a foreign country and living alone as a 14/15 year old.

 

[Kriss E]

This characteristic, of economy of movement and visual efficiency, is true in many walks of life. It separates an expert surgeon from a novice as well. The expert surgeon knows which problems to anticipate, based on a superior recognition of the anatomy (and its variation), and perhaps a classification into one of a number of templates. Meanwhile the novice exhibits eccentric, chaotic visual path and surgical gestures. Similarly, the superior hockey IQ probably does that on the fly with game scenes: a current defensive or offensive deployment reminds him (or her) of another one encountered before, which elicits a response that optimally applies to this scene, inspired by the template. (This is what I try to provide in surgery simulation: a means of accelerating the learning curve for novices...)

That's interesting, but hockey IQ is nothing more than a singular metric.
The growth of physical attributes is, I would argue, just as important than the mind, and that is unpredictable. I'm not just referring to muscle tissue and structure, but also the improvement on hockey skills. How much will a kid improve on his skating, shooting, passing, stickhandling, etc, no matter how well intentioned they are, that development is unpredictable imo.

I think psychology definitely matters, but I don't think they can predict a future talent.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I believe in psychology but I'm skeptical that one can fully understand a 17 year old's long-term psychology from a couple interviews, etc.

Especially since the executive part of their brain has barely started to blossom.

There's also the problem of honesty with any Q&A that is not anonymous.

 

[Burke the Legend]

Spatial recognition tests would also probably help decypher the sleepers.

This is a big one too me. It would help filter guys who dominate junior just because they have big man bodies and quick hands. Giving them a huge advantage over developing teens.