USA overtaking Canada

[Fatass]

Sure, and the Greater Toronto Area is the Rome of hockey.

I’ve heard Montreal is the Mecca of hockey for many decades. I posted articles dating back 40 years saying as such. I have not heard that Toronto is the Room of hockey. Got any links to articles of others saying that?

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

People ask this all the time like it's not just as expensive in the US.

Right, but we have more untaxed billionaires, we have an entire society and culture built around the masses working 60 hour weeks to support the whims of the rich. So ya, USA will take the lead. Make hockey more affordable? Nahhh, make more billionaire babies, that’s the plan!

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

Well below all European nations? Whatt?

Russia can't even play.

Sweden and Finland aren't on Canada's level.

Swiss aren't even close.

Who are these magical European nations that Canada is below.

I was talking about Europe.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

USA will eventually overtake Canada. It's simply a numbers game. Population of 340 million vs 40 million.

If they could they would have by now witn that much of a potential talent pool to draw from.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

You make a good point, but then where are the top-level upsets by the USA?

2010 Vancouver in the RR and 2025 RR Montreal against Canada.

Could also say that 2014 against Russia in Russia was an upset. Only time outside North America the US has ever beaten USSR\Russia.

Now those wins aren't massive upsets by any means and they weren't medal determinative, but they were wins on foreign soil that had happened only twice in the history of best vs best with Canada and USSR\Russia prior and were intensely played.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

It will take a while considering the cast of characters leading the USA side.

IMO Oettinger is more capable of outperforming Binnington than Hellebuyck and in a one game winner take all could be the difference.

 

[Korpse]

Ah. I see. Well, it’s me that’s sorry for mistaking sarcasm for good faith.

At last reference, Canadian players comprise at present, 41% of the NHL and Americans 29%.

The link below charts Canada’s decrease and America’s increase a little after Cherry’s prediction.

https://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/canadians-no-longer-majority-
among-nhl-players-192445732.html

So I don’t know how you infer facts in trends in order to come to reasonable conclusions, but…If something was more and is less and is trending towards becoming absolutely less, I’d say that’s another bullseye for Grapes, uncomfortable as that may be.

He didn’t provide a date. But the facts of the trend are unsettling nonetheless.

What's the prediction, that America will overtake Canada has the top hockey nation or that Americans will make up the majority of NHL players? Neither has happened. The share of Canadians in the NHL has declined over the decades, a trend that was happening decades before this "prediction". If one day America gets to the same share of NHL players does that make equal or superior? No. Results wise they are on par with Canada at the u-20 level and their dominance at the u-18 level has waned, winning just 1 of the last 5 tournaments. Men's national teams still struggle.

In 1980 82.3% of NHLers were Canadian, around the time you are speaking of it was mid-low 60's. Congrats to Grapes for identifying a trend that had already been happening, i guess. It's not uncomfortable to admit that hockey in Canada has peaked, I think that's been known for some time. As the NHL has grown the number of players outside of Canada has grown, but the number of Canadian NHL players has not declined.

 

[Summer Rose]

What's the prediction, that America will overtake Canada has the top hockey nation or that Americans will make up the majority of NHL players? Neither has happened. The share of Canadians in the NHL has declined over the decades, a trend that was happening decades before this "prediction". If one day America gets to the same share of NHL players does that make equal or superior? No. Results wise they are on par with Canada at the u-20 level and their dominance at the u-18 level has waned, winning just 1 of the last 5 tournaments. Men's national teams still struggle.

In 1980 82.3% of NHLers were Canadian, around the time you are speaking of it was mid-low 60's. Congrats to Grapes for identifying a trend that had already been happening, i guess. It's not uncomfortable to admit that hockey in Canada has peaked, I think that's been known for some time. As the NHL has grown the number of players outside of Canada has grown, but the number of Canadian NHL players has not declined.

As for percentage of Canadians and Americans in the NHL, I think it's reasonable to conclude that there will eventually be a critical point where the number of Americans compared to Canadians will plateau. It's not as if the gains will continue indefinitely to the point where Canadians are pushed out of the league entirely in favor of American players, and nobody is saying this anyway. When we do reach the inevitable plateau point, the question becomes if that means more Americans than Canadians in the league or not. I think I'd actually say no. Canadians on NHL rosters will likely always outnumber Americans on NHL rosters.

Granted, it doesn't really link to success of the national teams. There's a correlation between the two, but that does not imply causation. There are, after all, plenty of examples of countries with kind of a small population who are dominant in international competition in a given sport. Norway at skiing events is a good example, and there's no reason that Canada can't be like this with hockey.

(And for that matter there are examples of countries with a large population that kind of suck in international competition - say hello to India in most sports other than cricket.)

 

[Bank Shot]

?
That didn’t support your made up point. USA has always been the best at swimming so the premise doesn’t make sense. It’s not as if Phelps was the first great American swimmer. Your point is garbage. American hockey fans care a lot more about their nhl teams. Not what country a particular player is from. Who do you think is more popular in Washington DC - Auston Matthews or Alex Ovechkin?



Actual evidence related to hockey.

The article clearly shows that swimming participation went up after Phelps won.

You keep changing the subject to try to make your vapid point.

I'm done arguing with someone that lacks basic reasoning. Good day.

 

[Fil]

Norway really?

 

[WarriorofTime]

The article clearly shows that swimming participation went up after Phelps won.

You keep changing the subject to try to make your vapid point.

I'm done arguing with someone that lacks basic reasoning. Good day.

No it doesn't, lol. Phelps wasn't a big name in 2001? It doesn't even make sense. All it actually states is Phelps was popular, which OK, there was always a foundation before Phelps. Phelps wasn't just a random American in a sea of international swimmers that were otherwise winning. The Americans always had stacked relay teams, and won a lot of swimming medals, indicating he's more like a Gretzky in a pile of other Canadian hockey players, carrying on a long tradition of national excellence in a particular sport.

 

[Moose Head]

Both countries have about the same number of registered players, so I could see a situation where they are more or less even with no clear favourite in the next 10-15 years, but until the US has significantly more registered players, I don’t see them outright overtaking Canada.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Both countries have about the same number of registered players, so I could see a situation where they are more or less even with no clear favourite in the next 10-15 years, but until the US has significantly more registered players, I don’t see them outright overtaking Canada.

Male Junior players is still something like 386K for Canada vs. 328K for USA. If that carried all the way through into NHL, then a 60/40 Canadian/American "North American NHL" ratio would likely become more like a 55/45.

Broader questions of how many of those male junior players stick around with hockey and pursue it at more serious levels, not so sure. Also don't know off-hand how long those sort of numbers have been going on. Registered Players is also one of those things where it's likely not the most accurate thing in general, for example USA is listed at almost 145K Senior male players compared to 93K for Canada (something pretty unlikely especially as that would encompass a wide range of ages where there were definitely more Canadian hockey players), which suggests something not akin to a clear apples to apples situation.

USA Hockey player membership analysis for 2023-24 - Sound Of Hockey

We look at the USA Hockey players report for 2023-24 season and take a look at the impact of the Seattle Kraken on Washington State.

soundofhockey.com

A large chunk of USA registered player growth is adult players (Men's League), although there is steady growth from 9-16 (the ages you'd most want to see as far as what could be "on the horizon" so to speak).

2860 Indoor and 5000 Outdoor rinks in Canada vs. 2200 Indoor Rinks and 500 Outdoor rinks in USA is the biggest thing USA would need to change imo to ever seriously "erase" the remaining gap. Canada has way more places to play hockey despite having a much more compact population.

 

[ITM]

What's the prediction, that America will overtake Canada has the top hockey nation or that Americans will make up the majority of NHL players? Neither has happened. The share of Canadians in the NHL has declined over the decades, a trend that was happening decades before this "prediction". If one day America gets to the same share of NHL players does that make equal or superior? No. Results wise they are on par with Canada at the u-20 level and their dominance at the u-18 level has waned, winning just 1 of the last 5 tournaments. Men's national teams still struggle.

In 1980 82.3% of NHLers were Canadian, around the time you are speaking of it was mid-low 60's. Congrats to Grapes for identifying a trend that had already been happening, i guess. It's not uncomfortable to admit that hockey in Canada has peaked, I think that's been known for some time. As the NHL has grown the number of players outside of Canada has grown, but the number of Canadian NHL players has not declined.

Again. Cherry didn't mention a date. To the best of my memory, he didn't quote statistics. His observation was experiential, meaning, his direct involvement with hockey in North America.

He emphasized a programmatic shift that implied in number and in quality, the American hockey program (Cherry's center of reference was always programmatic i.e. Hockey Canada) would take over the Canadian.

I concede the shift isn't exactly taking place at the speed of a magnetic clap, but it is happening to a point where IF trends continue, in another 25 years, Americans will make up the small majority of players in the NHL.

And since the NHL is the standard by which we acclaim "best of", inference to the best explanation says, it is reasonable to conclude that Cherry's cumbersome prediction will bear out.

The reason it is an uncomfortable reality is also in keeping with Cherry's premise, in that Hockey Canada was essentially allowing the slow erosion of its program to needlessly take place through one lack of consideration or action.

I'm not sure how a steady, measured decline provides for a stasis in producing Canadian NHL players.

Eager to see the numbers if you have them.