Tennis: US Open 2024

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

A double rematch from Cincy would be truly remarkable

I wonder what the odds would've been if you placed that as a parlay pre US Open

 

[kihei]

Quite a set.

 

[kihei]

Tiafoe seems ascendant but Fritz is doing everything he needs to do to stay in the set. If he wins I like his chances in the fifth set, fitness being a big reason.

 

[kihei]

That set turned a dime, on a penny actually. Foe had 4-5 40-15 lead to deuce the set but then hit two double faults and two shanks, and we are going to a fifth. I think the fifth set massively favours Fritz.

I'm not sure he was tired or if the pressure just finally got to him.

 

[kihei]

Immediately 2-love Taylor in the fifth set.

...and this looks like it is snowballing pretty fast.

....double fault for 4-love.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Fritz just turned it on late 4th set, Foe looks gassed here

 

[kihei]

Taylor takes his foot off the pedal and double faults a break himself, 4-1. Stay tuned....Foe is gassed, 5-1.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Taylor is most likely going to get smoked Sunday but boy will Ashe be a fun atmosphere and what a tournament for Big Foe, so fun to see him back at this level again

 

[kihei]

That 31 shot rally late in the fourth drained Foe of whatever energy he had left. Great defensive play by Taylor to stay in the match and not panic.

 

[kihei]

Taylor is most likely going to get smoked Sunday but boy will Ashe be a fun atmosphere and what a tournament for Big Foe, so fun to see him back at this level again

I'm picking Sinner but I don't think Taylor gets smoked at all. Right now he looks to me like a version of Zverev only with a brain and a heart. He's got the big weapons, forehand and serve, but also a backhand that has become extremely underrated and suddenly much improved net play. Should be a beauty of a match--the "x" factor may be Jannik's wrist.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I'm picking Sinner but I don't think Taylor gets smoked at all. Right now he looks to me like a version of Zverev only with a brain and a heart. He's got the big weapons, forehand and serve, but also a backhand that has become extremely underrated and suddenly much improved net play. Should be a beauty of a match--the "x" factor may be Jannik's wrist.

I could see that as well, Sinner's just been a machine that he's picking guys off at an absurd level

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Taylor's fitness and defense has come a long way. I don't think they are the liability they once were, and he has some of the bigger weapons in men's tennis. He outlasted Tiafoe in that match. As @kihei said, that long rally seemed to be the end of Tiafoe for this match.

It's sort of fitting Fritz ends up being the American to break the "getting to the final" of a slam streak since Roddick however many years ago because he's been the best American since Roddick, and that may sound pathetic but I believe it to be true. He's had a pretty great season in the slams. Think he's made the second week in all of them. Yeah, he's probably not ever going to even reach the top 5 (still would only reach 6 with a win, which is his previous career high), but he's pretty consistently been like 6-15 range in the sport for his prime. That's not at all bad.

This tournament for him probably ends with like a 4 or 5 set loss to Sinner, but who knows? He's playing very well and I don't think Jannik will just overwhelm him. If this was like a QF of a 1000 or whatever in March, no one would really bat an eye if Fritz beat Sinner. Sinner has been there and done that and is the better player. Fritz hasn't been there and done that and doesn't defend as well as Jannik, but I think there's a realistic chance, even if Sinner is the favorite. Would end up only the third 90's born player to win a Slam, as crazy as that sounds.

Great tournament Tiafoe put up there. I want to see him show more consistency though. If he plays like he seems to each US Open (believe it was QF's in 2022, SF's in 2023 and 2024), he's a top 10 player in the world. Even if this is the "high", just be a little more competitive throughout the year. He goes through too many stretches where he's barely like a seed level player at a slam and then balances it out with a few months where he's legitimately a top 10 player in the world. I guess thats most decent players, but I still feel like he's not just "getting hot" and this is a level he's capable of week after week, but he seems to lose his focus or confidence or fitness or whatever.

 

[kihei]

I could see that as well, Sinner's just been a machine that he's picking guys off at an absurd level

I think the great players, like the Big Three and Alcaraz when he is on, can beat you in ways that are so pervasive and soul-destroying that their victims are left feeling destabilized by their defeats. When Sinner (and the others) gets in that "you play your best but I will still find a way to beat you" mode they exude in retrospect an aura of almost invincibility. It's not like you have lost a match, but that your very game has been found woefully wanting and insufficient during the moments when you needed it to be at its very best. Obviously these kind of defeats can be most evident and most traumatic in the sports biggest moments, the Grand Slams and the Olympics, where the most is at stake in terms of prestige, money and ego. After his defeat of Medvedev, I felt like Sinner had joined this exclusive club. That will be a tough loss for Daniil to get over.

Later: it strikes me that ultra-elites aren't immune from these type of defeats either. Alcaraz's loss at the Olympics to Nole certainly seems to qualify. Carlitos hasn't been the same player since.

 

[kihei]

Picking Sabalenka, but she better be emotionally stable. If she blinks in that regard, Pegula could very definitely take advantage.

 

[Incubajerks]

Fritz said the he thinks he will win the final. Bold from him. I hope Ian is well physically, I'm worried about that and I'm very worried about the environment which will be everything for the home product, rightly so.

 

[kihei]

Fritz said the he thinks he will win the final. Bold from him. I hope Ian is well physically, I'm worried about that and I'm very worried about the environment which will be everything for the home product, rightly so.

I think that is a necessary mindset in this instance. There must be a lot of players, some in the top ten, who believe they are doomed from the beginning when they come up against one of the ultra-elite. A little attitude from Taylor seems not an unreasonable approach if he has any chance to win.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Sabalenka in 2
Sinner in 4

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Tomorrow's predictions:
Sinner in 4
Fritz in 5

*applause*

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Show time

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Pegula with the early break. She’s playing very well.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Sabalenka with a good return game. Breaks right back.

 

[SPV]

Sabalenka is going to be tough to beat. I feel like it’s going to take her unraveling a bit for Pegula to win.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Sabalenka’s power is unfair in the women’s game, at times. I don’t mean to open up the biological differences discussion, but at times it feels like an actual women (not alleging anything crazy) with man physical power to her shots playing against women who get overwhelmed by how hard the ball is coming back at them.

She’s a freak athlete. Really impressive to watch, especially now that she’s gotten her shots under a little better control.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

This is what I mean. Like I get Sabalenka hits it flatter and her shots aren’t actually heavier than these men, but the fact that the pure speed is faster is just crazy. The biological differences are usually big enough that there would still be a gap here.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1832022939279012130

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Sabalenka now spraying some shots and Pegula breaks back. Pegula is playing well. When she can get Sabalenka’s serve back into the court she’s winning most points. This match, like basically all she plays, is going to be about how well she can compose herself. Pegula isn’t really giving Sabalenka a free set here.