Tennis: US Open 2024

[kihei]

It's Sinner with the staying power, 6-4 for the win.

For Sinner, he must be rated a very strong favourite to win the tournament now.

For Medvedev: Kind of melancholy feelings. His serve has neither the pace nor accuracy that it once did, his forehand isn't as lethal, and while he can still rally brilliantly on occasion, the unforced errors really start to add up (57 unforced errors in 32 games).

Sinner and Sabalenka have the freest GS title they'll have in their careers. That's no disrespect to the other guys/women left but both of them are on their favorite type of court + no real big juggernaut left.

Tough to figure out which one should be the greater favourite at the moment. Now, really in a class by themselves.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

It's Sinner with the staying power, 6-4 for the win.

For Sinner, he must be rated a very strong favourite to win the tournament now.

For Medvedev: Kind of melancholy feelings. His serve has neither the pace nor accuracy that it once did, his forehand isn't as lethal, and while he can still rally brilliantly on occasion, the unforced errors really start to add up (57 unforced errors in 32 games).


Tough to figure out which one should be the greater favourite at the moment. Now, really in a class by themselves.

Sabalenka, for sure. She's only lost 1 set and it was randomly to Alexandrova in the Third round. None of the women left are exactly issues for her type of play style as well. Only way I can see her crashing and burning is if she starts off bad v Navarro tomorrow and just implodes on her serve. On the other hand, Sinner has had his warts, the lost set to McKenzie McDonald, looking very bad against Paul early and then tonight where he just mentally just stopped playing in Set 2 which was some of Medvedev raising his level. Draper is a weird matchup for him too because he can serve bot Sinner to death and lull him into playing TB's similar to the Paul match, don't think either American would be an issue for Sinner if he gets (100% should) to the final

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Sabalenka, for sure. She's only lost 1 set and it was randomly to Alexandrova in the Third round. None of the women left are exactly issues for her type of play style as well. Only way I can see her crashing and burning is if she starts off bad v Navarro tomorrow and just implodes on her serve. On the other hand, Sinner has had his warts, the lost set to McKenzie McDonald, looking very bad against Paul early and then tonight where he just mentally just stopped playing in Set 2 which was some of Medvedev raising his level. Draper is a weird matchup for him too because he can serve bot Sinner to death and lull him into playing TB's similar to the Paul match, don't think either American would be an issue for Sinner if he gets (100% should) to the final

I think Fritz is the biggest threat left to Sinner. He can get to tiebreaks pretty easily against anyone. Has beat two top 10 players in a row in 4, including someone who theoretically has a similar skillset to Sinner (I know Zverev is like the no mental strength version of Sinner but skillsets not too different).

Overall agree though that both Sinner and Sabalenka should win, but that’s why the matches are played in real life and not paper. If so, we’d have had Swiatek-Sabalenka, and honestly probably Alcaraz-Djokovic as the finals, but we don’t. Sabalenka has looked pretty good, but can be prone to spraying the ball. There are a bunch of opponents left who can let her self destruct, and while Sinner has looked pretty good recently, he’s had at least a few wobbles and still has the doping test story hanging over him. I think at this point it’s more likely we get a non chalk winner between the two than getting the two chalk winners.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I think Fritz is the biggest threat left to Sinner. He can get to tiebreaks pretty easily against anyone. Has beat two top 10 players in a row in 4, including someone who theoretically has a similar skillset to Sinner (I know Zverev is like the no mental strength version of Sinner but skillsets not too different).

Overall agree though that both Sinner and Sabalenka should win, but that’s why the matches are played in real life and not paper. If so, we’d have had Swiatek-Sabalenka, and honestly probably Alcaraz-Djokovic as the finals, but we don’t. Sabalenka has looked pretty good, but can be prone to spraying the ball. There are a bunch of opponents left who can let her self destruct, and while Sinner has looked pretty good recently, he’s had at least a few wobbles and still has the doping test story hanging over him. I think at this point it’s more likely we get a non chalk winner between the two than getting the two chalk winners.

Not sure I agree with that part because Iga struggled at Cincy right before this US Open and so did Carlos. If anything, we knew coming in that those players would ripe for an upset. Novak was a wild card because he's Novak but he's been pretty damn mid at the slams this year, plus the whole Olympics + not playing any matches before this US Open in the Montreal or Cincy tournaments. The Olympics were the only thing he cared about it looks like and he came through there. I doubt he would've won the French if he didn't have to drop out either. In a normal non-Olympic year, those are probably the matchups but 3/4 of those players had insane schedules. I think it did absolutely wonders for Sabalenka to not go there and focus on her shoulder/hard court season + Sinner, for whatever reason you might think that he didn't go, whether it was the doping scandal weighing on him/changing court from grass to clay back to hard would be difficult or just the idea that he could wait till LA 2026 to compete in Olympic tournament seems to have benefitted him a ton as well

 

[kihei]

If Sinner goes to the Olympics in 2026, it will be as a skiier.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

If Sinner goes to the Olympics in 2026, it will be as a skiier.

I always forget he was a big skier before he got into tennis like that, lol.

Predictions tonight:

Sabalenka in 2
Muchova in 3

 

[SPV]

I’m hoping for an upset here, but don’t expect Sabalenka to lose though.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

That third game with the Saba DF's is exactly what she needs to avoid, Emma is the last player you can get angry against because she'll just pick you apart with her variety and cause a meltdown. She does it to Gauff all the time now apparently lol

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Sabalenka takes the first set 6-3.

It was close, but Navarro has to make more first serves. She’s arguably having an easier time on Sabalenka’s serve than her own. If she can start holding serve a little easier, she could get this to a third set. She’s doing alright on Sabalenka’s serve.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Sabalenka is on a mission, her power is just absurd for the women's game. Hitting people off the court

 

[SPV]

Sabalenka is making this closer than it looks, and it doesn’t even look close. Her errors are the only reason Navarro is getting some points.

Crowd wants to get into it, but Emma can’t get anything going for them to get excited about

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Sabalenka is just too good on hard court, it's actually getting insane at this rate. Books are gonna make her a minus favorite for the AO/US Open next year lol

Sabalenka is making this closer than it looks, and it doesn’t even look close. Her errors are the only reason Navarro is getting some points.

Crowd wants to get into it, but Emma can’t get anything going for them to get excited about

The Pegula Muchova match was always way better tonight, gives me something to tune into before the Chiefs/Ravens game kicks off

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Oh boy, Sabalenka broken in the game she was serving for the match. Her mental is gonna be tested here after last year

 

[SPV]

Oh boy, Sabalenka broken in the game she was serving for the match. Her mental is gonna be tested here after last year

Yup, especially with the crowd

 

[kihei]

What a killer breaker by Sabalenka.

Only saw the breaker so it looked like I missed a good match.

 

[SPV]

Navarro put up a little fight but just too much power from Sabalenka.

 

[SPV]

What a killer breaker by Sabalenka.

Only saw the breaker so it looked like I missed a good match.

She dominated, minus a bunch of unforced errors.

 

[kihei]

So much depends on nerves now. Never been much of a problem for Pegula. Kind of rooting for Muchova just because I like her game.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Really good sign for Sabalenka to win that breaker, keeps her fresher for the final. It helps her in the final too if she plays Pegula in the final with the crowd as well.

 

[kihei]

Karolina in the zone. Sweet place to be.

That was a tsunami of a set from Muchova. Under a half hour, too.

 

[kihei]

Pegula in Eeyore mode. That won't work. Needs to stomp her foot and get aggressive.

 

[kihei]

Pegula evens the set at 2-all, and Muchova is out of the zone. Never lasts all that long.

 

[kihei]

Crazy sport. Pegula is still just sort of holding on, but holding on she is. But nerves, self-inflicted pressure, the occasion, whatever, has gotten into Karolina's head, and it is going to be hard to get back the ease she had striking the ball earlier. Advantage definitely Pegula at this point.

 

[SPV]

This could be an important game

 

[kihei]

Pegula, the great opportunist, goes up 4-2 in the second. I guess this is how she wins a lot of the time. Bide your time and know when to pounce.