Unsustainable shooting %'s - Who can sustain it?

[Marlowe Syn]

I think Duchene actually goes up to 40%

He will never miss again.

 

[Norwegianoiler]

Don't quite know, but it has to be the entirety of the 2023-24 Vancouver Canucks.

 

[Korpse]

My thoughts as well.

Point did it last season, is off to an insane start this season, and has shot over 20% three times in his career already.

Reinhart's shot a total of 19.2% over the last five seasons (including his last season in Buffalo), so he's got a pretty consistent record at this point of shooting at a clip of close to 20%.

With Reinhart I'd add that he has also found a PP role where he is shooting more which will help inflate his %. 150 shots in the prior two seasons. 32% of his shots coming on the PP during that time.

 

[jackjohnson]

Last season we saw only 6 players shot 20% or higher (50GP min):

Player	GP	G	S	S%
Sam Reinhart	82	57	233	24.5
Dakota Joshua	63	18	84	21.4
Simon Holmstrom	75	15	72	20.8
Anthony Mantha	74	23	113	20.4
Brayden Point	81	46	227	20.3
Nils Hoglander	80	24	120	20

So far this season (10GP+, 15+ shots), a whopping 56 players:

Player	GP	G	S	S%
Brayden Point	11	7	19	36.8
Adam Gaudette	10	6	17	35.3
Matt Duchene	11	7	20	35
Ryan Donato	10	6	19	31.6
Jonathan Huberdeau	11	5	16	31.3
Ivan Barbashev	12	7	23	30.4
Jordan Eberle	12	6	20	30
Cole Caufield	12	10	34	29.4
Leon Draisaitl	11	8	29	27.6
Alex Laferriere	12	8	29	27.6
Paul Cotter	14	6	22	27.3
Tim Stützle	11	6	22	27.3
Eeli Tolvanen	12	4	15	26.7
Joel Kiviranta	12	4	15	26.7
Sam Reinhart	13	10	38	26.3
Nic Dowd	10	4	16	25
Alexis Lafrenière	10	5	20	25
Nikolaj Ehlers	11	7	29	24.1
Tom Wilson	10	6	25	24
Stefan Noesen	14	5	21	23.8
Nick Paul	11	4	17	23.5
Dylan Larkin	11	7	30	23.3
Chris Kreider	10	6	26	23.1
Alex DeBrincat	11	5	22	22.7
Drake Batherson	11	5	22	22.7
Kirill Kaprizov	10	7	31	22.6
Connor McMichael	10	7	31	22.6
Craig Smith	10	4	18	22.2
Brandon Hagel	11	6	27	22.2
Nico Hischier	14	10	45	22.2
Gabriel Vilardi	11	4	18	22.2
Aliaksei Protas	10	4	18	22.2
Claude Giroux	11	5	23	21.7
Mats Zuccarello	10	5	23	21.7
Brock Boeser	10	5	23	21.7
Troy Terry	10	5	23	21.7
Ross Colton	10	8	37	21.6
Brett Howden	12	6	28	21.4
Fabian Zetterlund	13	6	28	21.4
Tage Thompson	12	7	33	21.2
Tomas Hertl	12	4	19	21.1
Rasmus Andersson	11	4	19	21.1
Dylan Strome	10	4	19	21.1
Josh Norris	11	4	19	21.1
Leo Carlsson	10	4	19	21.1
Nikita Kucherov	11	9	43	20.9
Mark Stone	12	5	24	20.8
Matthew Knies	12	6	29	20.7
Artemi Panarin	10	7	34	20.6
William Nylander	12	8	39	20.5
Kyle Connor	11	9	44	20.5
Kevin Hayes	13	3	15	20
Joel Edmundson	10	3	15	20
Mark Scheifele	11	6	30	20
Pavel Buchnevich	12	4	20	20
Pavel Dorofeyev	12	7	35	20

Notice how Brayden Points shooting percentage still went up from last year...there goes HFboards theory of high shooting percentage always coming down the next season. Although mostly Oilers fans made those claims last season.

Don't quite know, but it has to be the entirety of the 2023-24 Vancouver Canucks.

Yeah, you guys probably have all those stat sheets and whatnot regarding Canucks last season still saved up in a hard drive somewhere

 

[CDN24]

A few guys like Point, Reinhart and Krieder historically hit 20% some seasons so they may stay over 20%.

For the most part this is unstainable, except Ross Colton. I fully expect him to sustain his shooting percentage much longer than most of these other guys. He's on IR for the next couple of months, by then he will still be over 20% - most of these guys won't be.

 

[Toby91ca]

Draisaitl, Norris, Scheifele, Reinhart, and Kaprizov are the ones I'm most confident in sustaining.

Sustaining above 20% or sustaining current %? If the later, I think that is a big stretch for most.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Alex Laferriere will get to 30%.

 

[Toby91ca]

I think it's just who Reinhart is, that he puts himself into great position and has excellent accuracy so staying above 20% seems like something he will still do.

Maybe, but the history isn't here.....perhaps he simply turned a corner last year. Before last season, the highest he's ever been in a full season was 17.7%....he had 19.2% in a shortened season. He was 9.6-15.3% all the other seasons. His jump to 24.5% last season was a massive anomaly so far....he's at 26.3% so far this season....so that's why I question whether he simple shifted to a different player last year and might continue.

 

[jackjohnson]

The Vancouver Canucks guys will repeat because Tocchet has that super secret system for scoring on a high percentage of shots.

Its easy to sustain when Oilers are in the same division as us

 

[Pablo El Perro]

Maybe, but the history isn't here.....perhaps he simply turned a corner last year. Before last season, the highest he's ever been in a full season was 17.7%....he had 19.2% in a shortened season. He was 9.6-15.3% all the other seasons. His jump to 24.5% last season was a massive anomaly so far....he's at 26.3% so far this season....so that's why I question whether he simple shifted to a different player last year and might continue.

He took on a different role last year, playing primarily on the top line with Barkov and a mix of opposite wingers, top pp, and pk. So, it's possible.

 

[I am Canadian]

Nylander is pacing for 56 goals. I could see 50-55

 

[jackjohnson]

Nylander is pacing for 56 goals. I could see 50-55

Nylander could hit 50, he has the skills to make it happen

 

[KingPuckChoo]

Namestnikov is shooting at 30

quite a few jets players are having career years already in their 30s like Namest, Niederr, and Lowry all three should end up with a thousand points each

it's just one of those years for them

 

[Czechboy]

Necas is a career 12 and is at 28 right now ... I don't see him sustaining it but sure hope he does.lol

 

[benfranklin]

Quarterish mark of the season updated. Down to 39 guys.

Player	GP	G	S	S%	ENG	Adjusted
Jack McBain	22	8	18	44.4	1	41.18%
Adam Gaudette	20	9	28	32.1		32.14%
Marcus Foligno	21	4	13	30.8		30.77%
Matt Duchene	20	11	35	31.4	1	29.41%
Leon Draisaitl	22	16	60	26.7		26.67%
Ryan McLeod	21	6	20	30	1	26.32%
Sam Reinhart	22	16	58	27.6	1	26.32%
Mitchell Chaffee	20	5	19	26.3		26.32%
Mathieu Olivier	20	6	24	25		25.00%
Nico Sturm	19	4	16	25		25.00%
Will Cuylle	20	9	37	24.3		24.32%
Mark Scheifele	22	12	50	24		24.00%
Vladislav Namestnikov	22	6	25	24		24.00%
Cole Caufield	21	12	50	24		24.00%
Ivan Barbashev	22	10	39	25.6	1	23.68%
Martin Necas	21	12	51	23.5		23.53%
Stefan Noesen	24	10	43	23.3		23.26%
Nate Schmidt	20	3	13	23.1		23.08%
Justin Kirkland	19	2	9	22.2		22.22%
Keegan Kolesar	22	6	27	22.2		22.22%
Jack Roslovic	21	12	54	22.2		22.22%
Matthew Knies	20	8	36	22.2		22.22%
Aliaksei Protas	21	7	32	21.9		21.88%
Tanner Pearson	22	5	23	21.7		21.74%
Alex Ovechkin	18	15	63	23.8	2	21.31%
Connor McMichael	21	13	62	21		20.97%
Dylan Larkin	21	12	54	22.2	1	20.75%
Jordan Eberle	17	6	29	20.7		20.69%
Matvei Michkov	20	8	39	20.5		20.51%
Corey Perry	22	4	20	20		20.00%
Brendan Gallagher	21	8	40	20		20.00%
Jonathan Huberdeau	22	7	35	20		20.00%
Brock McGinn	17	3	15	20		20.00%
Nick Paul	17	5	25	20		20.00%
Alexander Wennberg	24	6	30	20		20.00%
Nico Hischier	24	13	65	20		20.00%
Mark Kastelic	22	3	15	20		20.00%
Peyton Krebs	20	3	15	20		20.00%

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Yeah 82 games last year, a full playoff run with 10 total goals, and a hot start this season? I'm not saying he'll score 57 again, but I think he's proven to be an elite forward in this league.

Damn, wish the Sabres had a dude like that.

Anyways, noted sniper Brian Donato says the trend will continue, so that’s good.

I think Tage Thompson will be the only one who actually improves. He’s had time to watch some from the press box and get fully healthy, and I think there’s some sorta combo/max effect on his clappers from the Ovi spot. Plus the Ovi spot being in increasing flux, one ring to rule them all, yada yada- math sucks, magic cool.

 

[Forge]

If you include this season, Drai has shot 20.3% over the last 7 seasons, I think. So I'd feel pretty good that he can stay over the 20% mark the entire year. He's finished over 21% twice during that time.

 

[ps241]

If you include this season, Drai has shot 20.3% over the last 7 seasons, I think. So I'd feel pretty good that he can stay over the 20% mark the entire year. He's finished over 21% twice during that time.

Thanks for this post.

I just went to NHL.com and Drai certainly has the best shooting % over a 7 season run that I have seen. That is as good as it gets.