Like I said to begin with, I suspect it’s an analytic driven decision. Winning the opening faceoff usually has a huge impact on the progression of play until the next whistle, as it forces the opponent into an extended defensive shift and then they have to get their line change sorted out before the can mount an attack.
It’s one thing if your top faceoff guy is a Derek Stepan or something. But Staal is the best defensive forward we have, period. It’s not just 5v5, he also leads our forwards in PK time. He’s the top choice to defend the opposing star center under all circumstances. Plus, if he gets stuck on the ice and gets burnt out trying to get the puck back, that’s fine… now you roll to Aho on the change. If Aho starts OT and loses that faceoff you’ve already played your hand and lost him for a whole shift.
I don’t think Rod makes a regular practice of something this exotic unless the blended-up possession stats say this is the right thing to do. On balance, considering faceoffs + defensive matchups + possession impacts + line cadence impacts, it makes sense that the analytics would support this approach.
I don’t think anyone suggested this is a predictor of success in playoff OT. It matters because playoff seeding matters, and this is how you get a better seed.