U20: (Unofficial)U20 World Rankings

[fan75]

I have compiled a world ranking using the IIHF model for both the U20s and a combined junior (U20 + U18, equally weighted) over the last 25 years.

Please note the Canadian and American rankings prior to 2004 in the combined ranking aren't really relevant because they only participated in the U20 in parts/all of the 4 years prior.

It gives you some indication of how nations are progressing or regressing. Look at Ukraine in the year 2000: 7th in the combined and 10th in the U20. Whereas someone like Denmark were 16th in the combined and 20th in the U20 in 1998.

In 1991, 7th through 14th in the U20 were:
Norway, Switzerland, West Germany, Poland, Japan, France, Romania and Denmark...

You can see in the attachment images below.

 

[fan75]

I have compiled a world ranking using the IIHF model for both the U20s and a combined junior (U20 + U18, equally weighted) over the last 25 years.

Please note the Canadian and American rankings prior to 2004 in the combined ranking aren't really relevant because they only participated in the U20 in parts/all of the 4 years prior.

It gives you some indication of how nations are progressing or regressing. Look at Ukraine in the year 2000: 7th in the combined and 10th in the U20. Whereas someone like Denmark were 16th in the combined and 20th in the U20 in 1998.

In 1991, 7th through 14th in the U20 were:
Norway, Switzerland, West Germany, Poland, Japan, France, Romania and Denmark...

You can see in the attachment images below.

Didn't seem to attach the U20 one, here it is

 

[Confucius]

And with a single game we move from 5th to 2nd.

The IIHF rankings are a joke.

 

[Uncle Rotter]

Interesting that Russia is atop the rankings, even though they haven't won the tournament in the past four years.

Unless Canada wins Gold and Russia finishes fourth, they will still be on top despite not winning any of the past six tournaments.

 

[MeHateHe]

Here are the updated rankings. The numbers may be different from the ones I posted in the original post, as I managed to lose my original spreadsheet, and it seems that my calculations were a bit different - I didn't factor in the increased bump between 4th and 5th and between 8th and 9th, for example.

These are all with consistent calculations over the course of tournaments going back to the 2012 championships. Any rankings based on this system fall off in value because the IIHF only broke out the Div I and Div II tournaments into ranked A and B tournaments in 2012.

A couple of notes from me: Russia remains at the top of the rankings despite not having won the tournament since 2011, which shows that these rankings reward consistency over excellence. Finland has won twice in the past four years but has not reached a ranking above #3, owing to a seventh and ninth place finish in the interceding years.

On the flip side, the Czechs and Slovaks, who have been consistently bowing out in the quarter finals over the past decade (noting the exception being their 3rd place finish in 2014) are consistently in the 6/7 spot. Denmark has had a pretty solid rise over the past three years, but that's skewed by a 5th place showing this year.

Lower down, Germany is falling. Norway has fallen. France is rising. Australia is dropping. Turkey, which won Div III, didn't move this year because they were second-last in the same group last year.

As I said in the original post, these rankings are a flawed product, posted for the sake of argument only.

2015 Total
1 Rus 2925
2 Swe 2915
3 Can 2915
4 USA 2790
5 Fin 2775
6 Svk 2730
7 Cze 2715
8 Sui 2595
9 Ger 2470
10 Den 2465
11 Nor 2385
12 Lat 2365
13 Blr 2355
14 Aut 2215
15 Slo 2195
16 Ita 2130
17 Kaz 2070
18 Pol 2060
19 Fra 2020
20 Ukr 1975
21 GBR 1885
22 Jpn 1860
23 Hun 1800
24 Ltu 1720
25 Ned 1660
26 Cro 1625
27 Rou 1590
28 Est 1580
29 Kor 1575
30 Esp 1490
31 Aus 1365
32 Srb 1360
33 Bel 1285
34 Isl 1270
35 Chn 1210
36 Nzl 1135
37 Mex 1105
38 Tur 1015
39 RSA 720
40 Bul 620


2016 Total
1 Rus 2935
2 Swe 2880
3 Fin 2860
4 Can 2835
5 USA 2835
6 Cze 2725
7 Svk 2710
8 Sui 2550
9 Den 2530
10 Blr 2395
11 Ger 2365
12 Lat 2365
13 Nor 2335
14 Aut 2270
15 Kaz 2165
16 Ita 2155
17 Slo 2070
18 Pol 2060
19 Fra 2040
20 Ukr 1980
21 GBR 1910
22 Jpn 1860
23 Hun 1810
24 Ltu 1735
25 Ned 1640
26 Est 1640
27 Cro 1605
28 Kor 1575
29 Rou 1555
30 Esp 1460
31 Srb 1370
32 Aus 1345
33 Bel 1310
34 Chn 1230
35 Isl 1165
36 Mex 1135
37 Nzl 1125
38 Tur 990
39 RSA 875
40 Bul 765
41 Isr 420

2017 Total
1 Rus 2925
2 USA 2895
3 Can 2875
4 Swe 2860
5 Fin 2730
6 Cze 2715
7 Svk 2675
8 Den 2640
9 Sui 2575
10 Blr 2405
11 Lat 2395
12 Ger 2340
13 Nor 2250
14 Aut 2250
15 Kaz 2215
16 Fra 2140
17 Ita 2085
18 Pol 2050
19 Slo 2020
20 Ukr 1950
21 Hun 1930
22 GBR 1890
23 Jpn 1820
24 Ltu 1770
25 Est 1655
26 Ned 1620
27 Rou 1600
28 Cro 1570
29 Kor 1555
30 Esp 1450
31 Srb 1380
32 Bel 1335
33 Aus 1305
34 Mex 1210
35 Chn 1200
36 Isl 1120
37 Nzl 1095
38 Tur 1070
39 RSA 920
40 Bul 820
41 Isr 715
42 Tai 360

 

[patnyrnyg]

Not sure this method makes sense for U20. When I hear "Ranking the best U20 teams..." I think, "Currently, who has the best players under 20 years old?" Not sure how Russia's medal from 3 years ago applies. Your rankings, so you are free to come up with whatever system you want, but I think it would be hard for most to take them seriously.

 

[MeHateHe]

Not sure this method makes sense for U20. When I hear "Ranking the best U20 teams..." I think, "Currently, who has the best players under 20 years old?" Not sure how Russia's medal from 3 years ago applies. Your rankings, so you are free to come up with whatever system you want, but I think it would be hard for most to take them seriously.

Well, if you read the thread, you'll see that I don't think the rankings have a lot of value, other than as a discussion point. I don't put a lot of stock in the IIHF ranking system in general, primarily because a single knockout game can make the difference literally between playing for gold or finishing 8th. While it's a team game, a hot goalie or a lucky bounce can make the difference in that single game.

For the U20s, charted over the course of 8-10 years can give you a sense of the trends of a country's development system (with the caveat that the change in the way the divisions were broken out in 2012 makes yearly rankings a little less accurate). I think if you look at it that way, you can see logical groups of countries with relative ranks: Canada, US, Russia, Sweden, Finland in one group, Slovakia, Czechs and Slovakia next, etc. Lower down, there are other groupings as well.

Anyway, this is a discussion board and this was posted for discussion only. People will see what they want to see; if Russian posters want to celebrate because they win the rankings, all the power to them; the gold medals are hanging around the necks of the US players and that's pretty much all that matters.

 

[Uncle Rotter]

I've said it before, the big flaw in the rankings system is that they insist on ranking the four losers from the QF. Think about it:
40 points: difference between winning and losing the Gold medal game
60 points: difference between 8th (making the QF) and 10th (relegated)
80 points: difference between 5th and 8th (what's the difference? You both lost!)

 

[Yakushev72]

If you award 3 points for Gold, 2 for Silver, and 1 for Bronze, it gives as realistic a ranking as any other.

 

[ToewsGretzky*]

Other than just for fun whats the point of an U20 ranking? its already been proven that the results of the World Juniors are irrelevant and have zero bearing on future mens tournaments. Only the senior mens level should have rankings.

 

[MeHateHe]

Other than just for fun whats the point of an U20 ranking? its already been proven that the results of the World Juniors are irrelevant and have zero bearing on future mens tournaments. Only the senior mens level should have rankings.

Um. No point? Aside from determining qualifying spots in Olympics, there's not much point in the senior rankings either. And given that's only every four years, why does the IIHF publish the senior rankings the other three years?

Actually, there might be some use in seeing these over the course of several years, in which you might be able see trends emerge in a country's development program. A slow steady rise in these rankings over 6-8 years would show that a country is making some strides and might lead to increased strength in the country's senior program. Or not.

But yeah, as I said in the original post when I posted the rankings last year, this is a relatively meaningless ranking meant primarily to be a point of discussion.

 

[patnyrnyg]

Well, if you read the thread, you'll see that I don't think the rankings have a lot of value, other than as a discussion point. I don't put a lot of stock in the IIHF ranking system in general, primarily because a single knockout game can make the difference literally between playing for gold or finishing 8th. While it's a team game, a hot goalie or a lucky bounce can make the difference in that single game.

For the U20s, charted over the course of 8-10 years can give you a sense of the trends of a country's development system (with the caveat that the change in the way the divisions were broken out in 2012 makes yearly rankings a little less accurate). I think if you look at it that way, you can see logical groups of countries with relative ranks: Canada, US, Russia, Sweden, Finland in one group, Slovakia, Czechs and Slovakia next, etc. Lower down, there are other groupings as well.

Anyway, this is a discussion board and this was posted for discussion only. People will see what they want to see; if Russian posters want to celebrate because they win the rankings, all the power to them; the gold medals are hanging around the necks of the US players and that's pretty much all that matters.

I see what you are saying. And just so you know, wasn't trying to be overly critical, sorry if it came off that way. Yes, I agree with the idea of the groupings. In the top you would have Canada, US, Sweden, Finland, Russia. Group 1A the Czech Republic and Slovakia as I think they have dropped a bit. But, in any given year, the top 5 could win. At this point, would think the Czechs and Slovaks would need to have all the stars align in their favor or have a great goaltender, but they COULD win the World Jr Tourney. Not as if they are a team like Italy or Ireland that would be lucky to not lose by 30 to the top teams. Then the teams like Belarus, Denmark, Germany, Latvia, Kazakhstan and so forth. Basically the teams that take turns going up and down between the top division and the next division.

 

[Belizarius]

I have compiled a world ranking using the IIHF model for both the U20s and a combined junior (U20 + U18, equally weighted) over the last 25 years.

Please note the Canadian and American rankings prior to 2004 in the combined ranking aren't really relevant because they only participated in the U20 in parts/all of the 4 years prior.

It gives you some indication of how nations are progressing or regressing. Look at Ukraine in the year 2000: 7th in the combined and 10th in the U20. Whereas someone like Denmark were 16th in the combined and 20th in the U20 in 1998.

In 1991, 7th through 14th in the U20 were:
Norway, Switzerland, West Germany, Poland, Japan, France, Romania and Denmark...

You can see in the attachment images below.

Great work.
French website Hockeyarchives has this ranking every year as well.
http://www.passionhockey.com/hockeyarchives/classmondejun2.htm

 

[MeHateHe]

Bump. With the tournaments starting yesterday (Norway with the big win over Lithuania!) I am putting my thoughts to these rankings. I look forward to hearing from everyone who thinks the IIHF rankings are a joke.

 

[Statsy]

Bump. With the tournaments starting yesterday (Norway with the big win over Lithuania!) I am putting my thoughts to these rankings. I look forward to hearing from everyone who thinks the IIHF rankings are a joke.

Dammit! Why did I put all my money on Lithuania?!

 

[Yakushev72]

I've got some bad news for you.

This is the ranking that matters.

Canada's National Teams win gold medals at 2014 Olympic Winter Games

You really had to reach deep to pull out that one. The fact is that Russia has outperformed Canada overall in the 2011-2020 decade. Even with mostly home games in front of home audiences, Canada has mostly failed to assert itself in recent years. Eventually, that will start to be reflected at the senior level as well.

 

[Zine]

I've got some bad news for you.

This is the ranking that matters.

Canada's National Teams win gold medals at 2014 Olympic Winter Games

No, your ranking doesn't matter as it pertains to the context of this thread, which was obviously meant for analytical purposes.
Is the OP's ranking 100% accurate? Of course not. Everyone knows Canada isn't nor ever will be the 3th best country, at least not in the near future.
But these rankings are a nice rough estimate of what we can expect in the future decade in terms of global hierarchy; particularly with FIN and USA experiencing mega upswings in talent and CZE and SVK trending downwards. WJC results reflect these trends very accurately.

 

[jj cale]

No, your ranking doesn't matter as it pertains to the context of this thread, which was obviously meant for analytical purposes.
Is the OP's ranking 100% accurate? Of course not. Everyone knows Canada isn't nor ever will be the 3th best country, at least not in the near future.
But these rankings are a nice rough estimate of what we can expect in the future decade in terms of global hierarchy; particularly with FIN and USA experiencing mega upswings in talent and CZE and SVK trending downwards. WJC results reflect these trends very accurately.

We will see, I dont tend to count games that havent happened yet.

And any future game against Russia I will want all their players tested for drugs before accepting results, that is the reality with you guys now.

 

[Zine]

We will see, I dont tend to count games that havent happened yet.

And any future game against Russia I will want all their players tested for drugs before accepting results, that is the reality with you guys now.

Nobody's 'counting' games that haven't happened. These rankings are clearly for projection, estimation and discussion purposes only, particularly as it pertains to future trends. And we've already established that it's flawed in some ways. Senior level games already played are 100% irrelevant per this topic.

It's unfortunate that a discussion that doesn't have Canada as #1 prohibits you from grasping basic topics and vocabulary.
pro·jec·tion
noun
an estimate or forecast of a future situation or trend based on a study of present ones.

 

[Ducks76]

Finland number two, lol?) Finland will always beat Russia, that has been the mindset since the winter war.

Finlnd U20 World Champion 2014 and 16! Don t forget ist !

 

[Killion]

WARNING - Some civility here please.

 

[Uncle Rotter]

Bump. With the tournaments starting yesterday (Norway with the big win over Lithuania!) I am putting my thoughts to these rankings. I look forward to hearing from everyone who thinks the IIHF rankings are a joke.

South Korea has probably made a big move upwards.

 

[MeHateHe]

South Korea has probably made a big move upwards.

Yup. Looks like four places.

 

[Uncle Rotter]

So off the top of my head it's now...
1.Can
2.USA
3.Swe
4.Rus
5.Cze
6.Fin
7.Svk
8.Den
9.Sui

 

[MeHateHe]

Here's what the rankings look like now, with the Div 2B and Div 3 tournaments still to come. A few changes at the top; Russia missing the semifinal round finally dropped them out of first place, Canada moves into first, which is a result of being in the gold medal game three of the past four years (the ranking system rewards consistency, not necessarily excellence). The top five is essentially interchangable, with one country bound to lose a lot of ground every year depending on who fails in the QF round. Finland is paying the price for two years out of the semifinals (especially missing the QF last year).
Lots of fluctuation lower down. Norway has dropped from 11th to 16th over four seasons, South Korea and Estonia have been making steady upward progress. I would argue the progress of those rankings over time is an indication of the development programs of those countries relative to their peers. By this I mean these rankings suggest that Norway, Germany, Italy and Slovenia, for example, are not keeping pace with others in the middling divisions of the IIHF, while countries like Estonia, South Korea and France are outpacing others in this group.

I'll update this again as the last two tournaments finish, and include the bottom 12 teams.

As always, this is for discussion purposes. The IIHF rankings are a joke, blah blah blah.
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	2015				2016				2017
1	Rus	2925		1	Rus	2935		1	Rus	2925	1	Can	2925
2	Swe	2915		2	Swe	2880		2	USA	2895	2	USA	2915
3	Can	2915		3	Fin	2860		3	Can	2875	3	Swe	2890
4	USA	2790		4	Can	2835		4	Swe	2875	4	Rus	2835
5	Fin	2775		5	USA	2835		5	Fin	2730	5	Cze	2770
6	Svk	2730		6	Cze	2725		6	Cze	2715	6	Fin	2715
7	Cze	2715		7	Svk	2710		7	Svk	2675	7	Svk	2660
8	Sui	2595		8	Sui	2550		8	Den	2640	8	Den	2605
9	Ger	2470		9	Den	2530		9	Sui	2575	9	Sui	2585
10	Den	2465		10	Blr	2395		10	Blr	2405	10	Blr	2430
11	Nor	2385		11	Ger	2365		11	Lat	2395	11	Lat	2385
12	Lat	2365		12	Lat	2365		12	Ger	2340	12	Ger	2310
13	Blr	2355		13	Nor	2335		13	Nor	2250	13	Kaz	2305
14	Aut	2215		14	Aut	2270		14	Aut	2250	14	Aut	2230
15	Slo	2195		15	Kaz	2165		15	Kaz	2215	15	Fra	2205
16	Ita	2130		16	Ita	2155		16	Fra	2140	16	Nor	2170
17	Kaz	2070		17	Slo	2070		17	Ita	2085	17	Pol	2045
18	Pol	2060		18	Pol	2060		18	Pol	2050	18	Hun	2035
19	Fra	2020		19	Fra	2040		19	Slo	2020	19	Ita	2000
20	Ukr	1975		20	Ukr	1980		20	Ukr	1950	20	Slo	1995
21	GBR	1885		21	GBR	1910		21	Hun	1930	21	Ukr	1945
22	Jpn	1860		22	Jpn	1860		22	GBR	1890	22	GBR	1815
23	Hun	1800		23	Hun	1810		23	Jpn	1820	23	Jpn	1805
24	Ltu	1720		24	Ltu	1735		24	Ltu	1770	24	Ltu	1805
25	Ned	1660		25	Ned	1640		25	Est	1655	25	Est	1655
26	Cro	1625		26	Est	1640		26	Ned	1620	26	Kor	1630
27	Rou	1590		27	Cro	1605		27	Rou	1600	27	Rou	1605
28	Est	1580		28	Kor	1575		28	Cro	1570	28	Ned	1585

[TBODY] [/TBODY]