GDT: UFA Frenzy 2024 - We're ALL Gonna Die

[tarheelhockey]

Nino’s best season as a Hurricane was a 24 goal 44 point campaign.

Svech had 30 goals and 67 points that season.

Has he plateaued, maybe? But he’s plateaued at pacing for 29 goals and 72 points per 82 games over the last 3 years with an ACL tear in the middle.

Nino’s first year as a Cane, granted only half a season, he scored at a 32 goal pace. In 2021 he played ~two thirds of a season at a 29 goal pace. Svech’s career high is 30. The usual disclaimers about pace apply, but when healthy and on top of his game, he brought the same scoring and arguably more physicality than Svech does. Neither of them are doing anything to move the needle in other categories.

Point being, it’s not like Nino was some hot-shit player. He helped us a lot but he was not a part of the core. We are still treating Svech as not just core, but cornerstone. That’s based mainly on a subjective feeling that it looks like he should break out any time now, that he has a good attitude and top-tier skill so that should add up to more than Nino Niederreiter impact. But he isn’t getting better, whether it’s due to injury or something else, and we’re about to exit the developmental phase where big strides are common.

To be clear, I like Svech a lot. But we did not draft him #2 and pay him near $8M to give us 29 goals and a nice personality. In the context of a team with one centerman and very little forward depth, he’s going to have to start carrying his shifts a lot more consistently than he has to this point.

 

[Unsustainable]

Nystrom is almost guaranteed to go back to Sweden. I think we try to keep Heimo because of the displeasure of the usage in his Finnish squad's system. honka probably is loaned out with Morrow playing in Chicago now.

Stillman may stay as a #7 carry on.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

To be clear, I like Svech a lot. But we did not draft him #2 and pay him near $8M to give us 29 goals and a nice personality. In the context of a team with one centerman and very little forward depth, he’s going to have to start carrying his shifts a lot more consistently than he has to this point.

An ACL takes two years to heal fully.

This is a big year, mostly for his health. I think it's pretty clear that he's a 30 goal scorer if he can play 70+ games, which he's only done twice in his six seasons here. I think his skill level is still borderline elite; it's his availability that is the issue.

Also: compare apples to apples. Don't compare Nino's pace to Svech's peak. It's disingenuous. Nino's best year in Carolina was 24 goals in 75 games. Svech is clearly the more productive player when healthy.

 

[FreshSeabass]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809277770259919329

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

too?

 

[chaz4hockey]

too?

He hasn’t responded to people asking “too” on twitter. Interesting choice of a word there though. .

 

[Lempo]

Prolly Winnipeg acquiring something else from someone else.

I'm bored enough to allow if it's something else than that.

 

[A Star is Burns]

He tweeted about Seattle signing Tolvanen immediately before that. I took the too as this is another piece of news to be reported.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I was sort of surprised that Coghlan was tendered a contract. They had to know that some teams wanted him and were willing to pay a small draft pick for him. Canes love to increase pick volume by acquiring 6th and 7th rounders in small transactions like this. They picked up three 6th rounders just by retaining on Lyubushkin and a couple of prospect punts for Cade Webber and Jamieson Rees.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I was sort of surprised that Coghlan was tendered a contract. They had to know that some teams wanted him and were willing to pay a small draft pick for him. Canes love to increase pick volume by acquiring 6th and 7th rounders in small transactions like this. They picked up three 6th rounders just by retaining on Lyubushkin and a couple of prospect punts for Cade Webber and Jamieson Rees.

i dont think we initially expected to fill the nhl defense with FAs and morrow was going to play in Raleigh. But once the guentzel thing happened and we could, Cogs fell way down the depth charts. His agent probably went and found a destination where he is the 7th or 8th defender on the roster with a chance of playing NHL games.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

i dont think we initially expected to fill the nhl defense with FAs and morrow was going to play in Raleigh. But once the guentzel thing happened and we could, Cogs fell way down the depth charts. His agent probably went and found a destination where he is the 7th or 8th defender on the roster with a chance of playing NHL games.

I thought it was kind of odd even considering that just because we had so many RHD ELCs. Morrow, Nystrom, Heimosalmi, Honka, and Legault were all there. Maybe you're right, however, about the Guentzel saga causing the Canes to double-down on their identity and to go deep on premium bottom-4 defense pairings again.

 

[HisIceness]

Since we're already past the "serious" portion of this, I would like to say that I am a free agent and am looking for a team. I am willing to sign 3×3

 

[Bub]

Since we're already past the "serious" portion of this, I would like to say that I am a free agent and am looking for a team. I am willing to sign 3×3

I think we can round up 3 bucks between all of us.

 

[tomdundo]

Since we're already past the "serious" portion of this, I would like to say that I am a free agent and am looking for a team. I am willing to sign 3×3

Counter-offer: 3 day contract in exchange for one cookout tray

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

i guess we'll hear if Necas files for Player Arb today

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Svech - 26/Aho - 34/RW- ?
LW - ?/Kuzy - 15/RW - ?
Martinook - 10/Staal - 14/Roslovic - 12
Robinson - 10/KK - 13/Carrier - 11

Slavin - 6/Burns - 13
Orlov - 7/Walker - 6
Ghost - 12/Chatty - 6

For most of the guys I did a goals per 82 calculation....I think I just ball-parked a couple though (Kuzy? Martinook?).

looking at strickly average goals per game played over the last 3 seasons and then figuring how many games they will play based on the last 3 seasons (but accounting for AHL assignments, late call ups and major injuries) I get around 250 goals for a 13 man forward group of Aho, svech, jarvis, necas, kk, kuzy, drury, martinook, staal carrier, roslovic, lemieux and robinson.

I know you didnt include the three RFAs but those three have 52 goals in my averages. Even then 250 doesnt include anyone else who plays because that number doesnt include the players who play the games those 13 dont play.

If we go strictly, everyone playing 82 based on 3 season goal averages, our top 12 forwards and 6 defenders should reach 270 goals.

 

[NotOpie]

looking at strickly average goals per game played over the last 3 seasons and then figuring how many games they will play based on the last 3 seasons (but accounting for AHL assignments, late call ups and major injuries) I get around 250 goals for a 13 man forward group of Aho, svech, jarvis, necas, kk, kuzy, drury, martinook, staal carrier, roslovic, lemieux and robinson.

I know you didnt include the three RFAs but those three have 52 goals in my averages. Even then 250 doesnt include anyone else who plays because that number doesnt include the players who play the games those 13 dont play.

If we go strictly, everyone playing 82 based on 3 season goal averages, our top 12 forwards and 6 defenders should reach 270 goals.

Yeah, as I said, I went with goals per 82 across their career. It was one way to be pessimistic (which is against my MO). In the end, if we can shoot for last years goals total (277 for 8th in the league), we should be trending towards "fine". The challenge will be "goals against". I believe we led the league in goals for/goals against differential (+66). So we might actually need higher levels of scoring given that our defense likely won't be as stingy

 

[SilverBlitzon]

I just noticed that there are 9 defensemen signed for the non-roster. Does anyone know if all 9 of these players are supposed to be playing in North America this upcoming season?

Out of these 9, I only see Legault as a possibility to play in the ECHL which means of course that we would have 8 defensemen slotted for the AHL if none of them are on loan to play in Europe this year.

I gotta think one of them would be in a possible trade package with Necas along with one of the 28 third line forwards we currently have under contract.

View attachment 892534

I had a feeling we were gonna trade a defenseman but I was speculating about the wrong D-men lol

 

[chaz4hockey]

i guess we'll hear if Necas files for Player Arb today

He has until 5pm correct?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

He has until 5pm correct?

Thats the rumor

 

[Lempo]

He has until 5pm correct?

Yes.

12.2 Notice of Player Election of Salary Arbitration. A Player (or a Player's Certified Agent, acting on the Player's behalf) electing salary arbitration must do so by making a written request, in accordance with Exhibit 3 hereto, utilizing the form attached hereto as Exhibit 23, to Central Registry, the NHLPA and the Player's Club by not later than 5:00 p.m. New York time on July 5 in the League Year in which such Player is eligible for salary arbitration.

 

[Lempo]

The bad thing in filing for Salary Arbitration for Necas is that after filing for it he can't sign an offer sheer for a longer contract, but the ball is heavily in Canes' court after that. Any longer deal between filing and the hearing has to be negotiated with the Canes, and Canes also get the choice whether the salary arbitration award is for one or two years.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

The bad thing in filing for Salary Arbitration for Necas is that after filing for it he can't sign an offer sheer for a longer contract, but the ball is heavily in Canes' court after that. Any longer deal between filing and the hearing has to be negotiated with the Canes, and Canes also get the choice whether the salary arbitration award is for one or two years.

We would choose 1 year.

 

[Lempo]

We would choose 1 year.

Very likely. The difference is not big, though, as the award will be in base salary, and that base salary will be his QO in the next summer. So it's kind of 1+1 anyway, but obviously gives more opportunity to try and sign him long-term.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Based on the Jesper Bratt precedent, a 1x5 is a pretty easy-to-predict outcome here.