Well you did a shit job of figuring out anything. I'll lay it out simply.
At that point in the draft the chance that the player becomes a good NHLer is less than 40%. And the guys who are LIKELY to be high impact players are already off the board. So I would go volume in the second/third round.
Now if I was forced to pick at 44 I would not have selected Kleven. My first choice would have been Faber. I had other players I would have preferred over Kleven who have not panned out quite so well (Hunt, Poirier, Jurmo, etc.) and some who might still pan out (Nikishin, Moore, etc.). I'm no scout. But to me playing the odds is the more sensible move. We got a solid NHL player out of the deal so I'm happy. But I wouldn't make that move for any player big or small if the situation arose.