Movie was great, got great reviews, overwhelmingly majority of people enjoyed it and will continue to make money. They get back tons of money on tax write offs that not listed in Dan Murells fancy little picture, and the movie will continue to make money over the years.
Yup, that’s a success.
An Oklahoma newspaper reported last year that the movie cost nearly $200M, and the state has a 20-30% film tax credit, so it's likely that the $155M budget figure is
after tax credits and the graphic above is, therefore, correct. It's also not the only source that suggests that the film is little over $100M away from profitability. I linked to another earlier, and I imagine that they all understand the financials better than to not account for significant tax credits.
Besides, even if the $155M were before tax credits and the studio got the maximum 30% back, that equals $108.5M spent on making the film. Add a low-end $50M estimate for marketing and you get $158.5M total expenditure. To break even, it would've had to gross at least double that, or $317M, which it's still $30M away from. So, either way that you calculate things, it has yet to turn a profit.
For the reasons that you gave, it hasn't really been a flop, but it hasn't been a complete success, either. It cost too much and didn't make enough. It's possible that it'll turn a profit eventually, as you say, but having to wait months or years after a film has left theaters to turn a profit is generally not counted as a resounding success.
I wrote above that I enjoyed it and want to see films like it succeed, and I don't think that anyone else here has anything against it, either, but the numbers are what they are, unfortunately. A lot of people (both audiences and critics) liked The Fall Guy and Furiosa, too, but neither turned a profit during their theatrical runs. Furiosa, especially, checks all of the boxes that you just listed (great reviews, people enjoyed it, large tax rebates and popularity on VOD), and it's the biggest flop of the Summer so far. You can have a well received movie that still struggles to break even because it cost too much relative to demand.