Blue Jays Discussion: Turn out the lights, the season's over.

[habamillions]

Surprised tepera was dfa'd.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[canucksfan]

This is a fail from A to Z.

There is no downside to this. If you have to look so hard for a downside, perhaps you just don't want to see an upside?

Most of the back of the rotation options are kids. If they can't win a roster spot over him, perhaps they aren't ready?

Just to add, Spanberger is a nothing prospect for the most part. Bat isn't good enough for a 1B and borderline outfielder.

Going into last season, the rotation was Stroman, Sanchez, Borucki, Buchholz and Shoemaker. Only Stroman didn't get injured. Having starting pitching depth is huge.

Even if Anderson completely flops there isn't a downside.

 

[aingefan]

Toronto Blue Jays 2020 Top-25 Prospects | FantraxHQ

This is a potentially interesting player and indicator that Vladdy might stay on the hotter corner for a while.

 

[aingefan]

3-5 in an MLB rotation is the one area on a team I may be interested in sacrificing $$ and go for quantity rather then spending 12-15 million per year on a long term deal for a quality mid rotation starter. It just seems so risky, they seem to have a lot of up and down years. If we have a budget I’d rather the teams dollars go to middle of the order bats or an Ace, it seems like a safer investment. As others have said I like this rotation if we can get another top of the rotation starter and if Pearson is up and performs like a #2 it starts to look good

1.
2. Pearson
3. Anderson
4. Shoemaker
5. Wageuspack, Thornton, Borucki, SRF, Kay

I’m up for an ace too.
Moreso I’m up for the team getting better, and with minimal risk.
Anderson is a pretty good bet for better quality than Waguespack and SRF, and can be seen as a placeholder who can help accelerate competitiveness a little bit. Kay and Pearson can percolate, Borucki can heal. And there’s waves of good arms coming from below.
But, the point for next year is that there is potentially more money to burn/spend, and the commitment to him is an annual decision for two years (at modest money, really, which shouldn’t block anything else) buying time for better arms to displace him (and Shoemaker, too).
No real acquisition cost, better team, and much more room to add.

 

[aingefan]

Surprised tepera was dfa'd.

Agreed abit, when he’s healthy he’s pretty good.

 

[The Nemesis]

Surprised tepera was dfa'd.

He was kinda bad in his limited run last season and it's not a given he's gonna be 100% healthy this season. And given that he's due a raise and the fact that relievers are voodoo, it's not unreasonable for them to decide to gamble that they can do better with a shotgun blast of candidates vs one more expensive option with a rocky and injury-shortened 2019

 

[Woodman19]

Surprised tepera was dfa'd.

Probably terrible medicals

 

[phillipmike]

2019-20 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

Only Jay prediction;

20. Tanner Roark – Blue Jays. Two years, $18MM.

Roark, a veteran of seven MLB seasons, has never landed on the injured list. He’s made at least 30 starts in five of the past six seasons, with the exception being 2015 when he was bumped to the bullpen upon the Nationals’ signing of Max Scherzer. His strikeout rate has ticked up over the years, though his lone positive Statcast data point is the excellent spin rate on his curveball. Roark is a hittable 33-year-old righty with a 92 mile per hour fastball whose main attribute is his ability to take the ball every fifth day. It’s not a particularly sexy profile, but durable, league-average innings have value. Some of the less-appealing free agent destinations might be able to lure him with a two-year deal.

Has Donaldson going to the Rangers which would be crappy to see.

Edwin to the Rays for 8M which might be a steal.

Hudson back to Washington.

 

[The Nemesis]

We have 5 guys for the back of the rotation. How many backs of the rotation are there?

As far as a thinly veiled shot at management - I don't like or dislike them. They've done some nice things and some not so nice things. So far the major league impact of those moves, good and bad, have mostly yet to be seen. In a couple of years, it'll be a lot easier to see how management has fared.

I'm just not sure why the team needs another back of the rotation starter - unless they aren't sure the back of the rotation starters they already have aren't the right ones?

There are more moves to come of course, I'm just not sure why this one was necessary. Didn't know I had to like everything Atkins does?

The team used like 20 different pitchers to start a game last year. Good teams need depth, and the place they need the most workable depth is in those back-end spots.

There is no universe in which having more of those arms is anything but a good thing.

 

[phillipmike]

Based on MLBTRs predictions I would take;

1. Ozuna - 45M over 3 years

2. Roark or Miley at 16-18M over 2 years

3. Encarnacion at 8M over 1 year or

4. Betances at 7M over 1 year plus other lesser pen arms

would be a very good offseason. Puig on a one year deal might be of reluctant interest if Ozuna isn’t a possibility.

 

[Discoverer]

Unless you get a great bargain somewhere, I think you need to make sure you get someone who can play CF if you're going to add an OF.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

We have a trade to announce...

He gives up nearly half of his runs via the home run. Gave up 30 long balls to lead the league two years ago.

Hopefully he pulls more of a Marco Estrada and less of a Jesse Chavez.

 

[TF97]

He gives up nearly half of his runs via the home run. Gave up 30 long balls to lead the league two years ago.

Hopefully he pulls more of a Marco Estrada and less of a Jesse Chavez.

Watch the profanity, there are children here! Nem won’t tolerate this kind of tomfoolery around here

 

[GoonieFace]

In more depressing news, the Buddy Boshers era may be over.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Watch the profanity, there are children here! Nem won’t tolerate this kind of tomfoolery around here

I apologize... He's better obviously but a guy that givea up that many home runs scares the hell out of me lol

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

This is a fail from A to Z.

There is no downside to this. If you have to look so hard for a downside, perhaps you just don't want to see an upside?

Most of the back of the rotation options are kids. If they can't win a roster spot over him, perhaps they aren't ready?

All I said was looks like they are going to throw poo at the wall and see what sticks and that I was not excited by this move. You told me I overreacted. Now it looks as if the plan is to have a bunch of guys tabbed for the back of the rotation and see who can do the job....kinda exactly what I said.

I don't think I said anything that warranted an A-Z fail. The guy's peripherals...the same ones many on here use as a means to evaluate a player, don't look great..gives up a lot of homers, his FIP and xFIP are higher than his ERA etc.....just doesn't look great to me. Maybe he can catch some of 2017 in a bottle and look great?

I get that the Jays didn't give up anything of value so it can't really be a "bad" move and I never said it was. I'm just not thrilled by it, sorry.

Lots of other, smarter people than me seem to think it's fine so I'll leave it there. But no need to make it seems as if I've made one of the most outlandish claims on this board....I've been reading here for a long time and have seen some real A-Z fails.

Anyway, lets see what the rest of the off season brings. Enjoy your day.

 

[TF97]

All I said was looks like they are going to throw poo at the wall and see what sticks and that I was not excited by this move. You told me I overreacted. Now it looks as if the plan is to have a bunch of guys tabbed for the back of the rotation and see who can do the job....kinda exactly what I said.

I don't think I said anything that warranted an A-Z fail. The guy's peripherals...the same ones many on here use as a means to evaluate a player, don't look great..gives up a lot of homers, his FIP and xFIP are higher than his ERA etc.....just doesn't look great to me. Maybe he can catch some of 2017 in a bottle and look great?

I get that the Jays didn't give up anything of value so it can't really be a "bad" move and I never said it was. I'm just not thrilled by it, sorry.

Lots of other, smarter people than me seem to think it's fine so I'll leave it there. But no need to make it seems as if I've made one of the most outlandish claims on this board....I've been reading here for a long time and have seen some real A-Z fails.

Anyway, lets see what the rest of the off season brings. Enjoy your day.

I will offer a quick explanation as to why someone like Anderson might be consistently beating his FIP. I do not have the numbers in front of me right now but I can definitely pull them up later if needed. Pitchers who rely on soft contact and pop ups (specifically infield flies) will often have the tendency to outperform their FIP, sometimes by a sizable margin. Just look at pitchers like Tyler Clippard (name-dropped for you, Nem) and Marco Estrada, both are fly-ball heavy pitchers who do have home run issues but also excel in limiting hard contact, with infield pop ups being a significant part of that. I believe R.A. Dickey is another example of this. Eventually, these pitchers often have their ERA's start climbing up towards their FIP when other factors, that were once used to beat their FIP, start to deteriorate.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

I will offer a quick explanation as to why someone like Anderson might be consistently beating his FIP. I do not have the numbers in front of me right now but I can definitely pull them up later if needed. Pitchers who rely on soft contact and pop ups (specifically infield flies) will often have the tendency to outperform their FIP, sometimes by a sizable margin. Just look at pitchers like Tyler Clippard (name-dropped for you, Nem) and Marco Estrada, both are fly-ball heavy pitchers who do have home run issues but also excel in limiting hard contact, with infield pop ups being a significant part of that. I believe R.A. Dickey is another example of this. Eventually, these pitchers often have their ERA's start climbing up towards their FIP when other factors, that were once used to beat their FIP, start to deteriorate.

Thanks for that - looking at it through that lens, perhaps there is some potential there. Appreciate the insight, I hadn't thought of that.

And thanks for not calling me a failure!

 

[kb]

Thanks for that - looking at it through that lens, perhaps there is some potential there. Appreciate the insight, I hadn't thought of that.

And thanks for not calling me a failure!

Difference between calling a post a fail and calling a poster a failure.

Just FYI.

It was a soft trade to strengthen the back of the rotation with absolutely nothing given up in terms of prospect capital. Why does it need to be shit on? It's only Nov 5th, a few days after the WS ended.

The overreaction to this move was bizzare.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Blue Jays off-season primer: Anderson deal should just be the beginning - Sportsnet.ca

Biggest needs

The Blue Jays need pitching, and lots of it. They’re expected to devote most of their resources to the rotation after a season in which their starters combined for a 5.25 ERA. The front office will check on every free agent starter, so don’t be surprised when they’re linked to all kinds of names this winter.

While the team values draft picks highly, there are surely prices at which qualifying offer recipients Jake Odorizzi and Zack Wheeler make sense in Toronto. But if the bidding for those pitchers escalates beyond the team’s comfort zone, the likes of Jordan Lyles, Michael Pineda and Rick Porcello would just cost money.

Eventually, there will be chances to add to the bullpen and there’s also room for improvement on the offensive side, too. As a group, Blue Jays hitters posted a .305 on-base percentage in 2019, fourth-worst in baseball.

Worst-case scenario

The Blue Jays off-season would be a failure if they don’t add meaningfully to their starting rotation. After years of bargain hunting, it’s time to look beyond the likes of Jaime Garcia and Clayton Richard and spend more aggressively. But as much as the Blue Jays need pitching, it’d be a mistake to spend too much prospect capital on short-term fixes.

Best-case scenario

Ideally, the Blue Jays would add two more big-league calibre starting pitchers, relief help, a controllable centre fielder who offers plus defence and an impact bat capable of playing multiple positions.

And best-case scenario, they’d add those pieces while holding onto their most promising young players. With payroll flexibility on their side, the Blue Jays are better off spending money than prospects.

 

[aingefan]

Agreed with the Sportsnet writer here.
There’s probably money to spend. And any term at four years or less shouldn’t affect long-term, sustainable winning.
Any of the top three SP FA’s would quite easily be worth the compensation pick (they’re 2nd’s, yes?).
There’s good fits among the non-qualified pitchers. There’s a few viable options among the truly free SP’s. A non-loogy lefty would a nice pairing with Giles in the back of the pen.
There are some power bats available for free.
And without knowing who, there have gotta be a few more soft deals for good fits. Could be a big swing off-season. *crosses fingers *

 

[stickty111]

Didn't find out about this trade til day, but it's nice add. There is decent upside and not much downside. It gives you a bottom of the rotation starter with potential, and you gave up a 24 year old who might not even be a prospect at this point.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Any of the top three SP FA’s would quite easily be worth the compensation pick (they’re 2nd’s, yes?).

What is a Qualifying Offer? | Glossary

Any team that signs a player who has rejected a qualifying offer is subject to the loss of one or more Draft picks. While a team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture, any additional first-round picks are eligible. Three tiers of Draft pick forfeiture -- which are based on the financial status of the signing team -- are in place to serve as a penalty for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer.

(Note: Each pick in the first 10 rounds of the Draft has an assigned value, and the total for each of a club's selections equals what it can spend on signing bonuses for players selected in those rounds without incurring a penalty. When a team forfeits a Draft pick, it also surrenders the accompanying bonus pool money associated that pick, independent from any money forfeited from its international bonus pool per the rules below.)

• A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft as well $1 million from its international bonus pool. If such a team signs multiple qualifying offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well. The Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees exceeded the threshold in 2019.

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2019 Rule 4 Draft would lose its second- and fifth-round picks. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-highest first-round pick and its fourth-round pick.

• A team that receives revenue sharing will lose its third-highest selection in the following year's Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest remaining pick. If that team loses a free agent, it will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A if -- and only if -- the lost player signs for at least $50 million. If the lost player signs for less than $50 million, the team's compensation pick would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.

The following 14 teams qualify for these picks during the 2019-20 offseason: A's, Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers and Twins.

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2019 Rule 4 Draft would lose its third-round pick. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-round pick.

• A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick. The 13 clubs that fall into this category during the 2019-20 offseason are the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers and White Sox.

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2019 Rule 4 Draft would lose its second-round pick. A team with two first-round picks would lose its second-highest first round-pick.

The Draft-pick compensation is also based on the financial status of the free agent's former team.

 

[Anthrax442]

Didn't find out about this trade til day, but it's nice add. There is decent upside and not much downside. It gives you a bottom of the rotation starter with potential, and you gave up a 24 year old who might not even be a prospect at this point.

And if he does well, they can flip him.