Player Discussion Troy Terry

[Mr Rogers]

He was better this year and than last, even though to the bystander it would appear by only 4 points in the same amount of games. Nevertheless, that still is an improvement itself. You have to hope that he just continues to progress, certainly some of his possession stats were pretty good for being on a lousy team and xGF% saw a nice uptick YoY.

The main thing is who else do the Ducks currently have to replace him? he isn't worth too much in a trade, might as well let him continue to improve which i believe he will

 

[All Mighty]

That's fair. And I can agree that he is good at zone entries. But I'm curious: what metrics specifically measure "setting up scoring chances?"

Go to the "Chance Production" tabs at the link below. According to this data, Terry is our only player who is above NHL average in both Scoring Chances per 60, and Scoring Chance Assists per 60. I believe a Scoring Chance Assist is just passing to a player who takes a shot that counts as a scoring chance.

Tableau Public

EDIT: There is also another tab that displays "Shot Assists," and that pretty much tells the same story.

 

[Bergey37]

Go to the "Chance Production" tabs at the link below. According to this data, Terry is our only player who is above NHL average in both Scoring Chances per 60, and Scoring Chance Assists per 60. I believe a Scoring Chance Assist is just passing to a player who takes a shot that counts as a scoring chance.

Tableau Public

EDIT: There is also another tab that displays "Shot Assists," and that pretty much tells the same story.

Thank you. And your description of "scoring chance assist" is exactly what I would expect it to be.

 

[405Entrance]

He just needs to beef up and work on his skating a bit more. I really do feel like a breakout is near for him

 

[anezthes]

He is our best forward at entering the offensive zone, and he is also our best forward when it comes to setting up scoring chances (yes, there are numbers that back these assertions up).

Tableau Public

Wouldn't that be Steel according to that site?

 

[All Mighty]

Wouldn't that be Steel according to that site?

Correct, at least on a per minute basis.

 

[KyleJRM]

Any metric that says that Steel is our second-best producing forward and Larsson is probably our best producing D is a metric that you should look at with a long side-eye. Just because people put things in charts with decimal points doesn't mean we have to believe them.

 

[Leonardo87]

Terry has made progress. Yeah, I was hoping he'd hit a.50 PPG or better this season, and on this team with no PP, and production has to be done at ES, not really easy to do. Terry's issue, he gets too easily knocked off the puck, and he passes up an opportunity to shoot when he gets prime scoring chances. Like Zegras, needs to add more muscle and be stronger on the puck and boards. Next season he will be 24 yo, and will be a critical year for him to break out, imo. I still am hopeful he can be a Top 6 player.

I would like to see Terry on a line separate from Zegras though. Throw him on a line with Lundestrom and Henrique next season. Ducks still need to add another goal scorer to their Top 6, if these guys are going to be successful and hit the score-sheet more consistently.

 

[KyleJRM]

Terry took huge steps forward this year. He went from possibly the worst forward on a team with lots of bad forwards to one of the best. He's not actually good yet, but he's a lot better than he was.

He started getting better at receiving passes and gathering loose pucks, which he used to be terrible at and was causing him to turn the puck over way too much. He got better at using his frame to box people out, which made him more effective on the boards, something this team desperately needs.

Both of those are allowing him to use his considerable creativity and hands to create chances. He can beat a guy 1-on-1 in ways that you'll remember two weeks later.

He also seems to have really bought into backchecking. He skates back in transition harder than anyone on the team. I wouldn't call him amazing defensively, he ends up in weird areas of the ice too often, but he puts in the work and isn't a liability in his own zone.

That's the good news. There's still plenty of bad news.

First and foremost, he can't score. He had his best season yet, and it translated to a 12-goal pace for a full season. He finished the season on a truly spectacular 18-game donut streak that stretched all the way back to March. This is not an accident nor coincidence nor the fault of his linemates. Being bad at scoring goals is who he is, at least for now. He doesn't shoot enough, his shot isn't very good when he does take it, and he has little interest in playing in the tough area in front of the net.

He's not a bad playmaker, but he's not a good enough of one to make up for his scoring deficiency. He put up assists at a 22-per-82 pace. Would have have more if he were gifted a spot on a line with an elite scorer? Sure, most guys would. But he also misfires a lot of his showtime-y passes instead of putting them on a guy's tape. And, as noted above, he doesn't get nearly enough shots on net, and creating rebounds are a big part of racking up assists.

On a team with the worst power play in NHL history, Terry was the biggest anchor dragging it down. It doesn't get noticed enough that he managed to accrue literally zero power play points this season, despite being 5th on the team in PP minutes for forwards (and 2 seconds away from 4th). Watching the games, it's not hard to see why, Terry is frequently the other team's PK MVP. A successful power play needs accurate passing, good shots and net-front presence, all things Terry struggles with.

Is there still upside to get better? Sure, there's some. He'll be 24 when next season starts. Most 24 year olds do not get significantly better, but there are a handful of examples. Working in his favor is his big-talent/big-hole profile. A guy who does some things great and some things terrible has a better chance to become great than a guy who does everything kinda bad (Sam Steel). It's not overwhelmingly likely that he breaks out in a big way, but it's not impossible.

If he doesn't get much better, where does leave him? He's probably earned himself some sort of NHL career. He'll find a job with somebody for at least the next five years or so. You can't put a guy who can't score and is a PP detriment in your top-6, especially if you are a good team, but you can find him a 3rd or 4th line role.

 

[Big Empty]

Troy Terry incoming breakout season.

No idea why but I’ve always liked him as a player.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Terry will always have this board be 50/50. It’s either criticism or people defending him.

I’ve been waiting for his ‘breakout’ season for two years now. I think it’s ‘put up or ship him out’ this season.

 

[bsu]

Terry will always have this board be 50/50. It’s either criticism or people defending him.

I’ve been waiting for his ‘breakout’ season for two years now. I think it’s ‘put up or ship him out’ this season.

laughing at you not at what you said.

 

[AngelDuck]

Even if he just is what he is last season, he’s still easily worth his contract. Why would he be shipped out?

Plus, there’s reason to think he can get better

I see a Joonas Donakoi type outcome being most realistic at this point. Good depth scorer

I’ll be honest, I was dreaming that he’d be a David Perron a year or two ago. But that was probably unfair of me

 

[bsu]

I expect him to be a great 5th round pick.

 

[Trojans86]

Huge potential but not there yet. Legit could be a top line forward in my book or out of the nhl in a few years.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

laughing at you not at what you said.

laughing at me for being concerned about a hyped prospect on this board for years?

odd

 

[bsu]

Just found these they were posted a couple days ago.... looks like he is doing Comtois next. Nice.

 

[bsu]

 

[Hockey Duckie]

What do all those stats mean in context?

OZ Starts %

2018-19: 65.7%
2019-20: 60.2%
2020-21: 60.8%​

Because Terry starts often in the offensive zone, then the sample of offensive rating are skewed. I think we all know Terry has talent, but he truly lacks finish. Yet, we still need to look at actual counting stats:

Games and Points

2018-19: 32 games, 4g + 9a = 13 pts, +8.... PP points: 2g + 4a = 6 pp pts
2019-20: 47 games, 4g + 11a = 15 pts, -5.... PP points: 0g + 2a = 2 pp pts
2020-21: 48 games, 7g + 13a = 20 pts, -1.... PP points: 0g + 0a = 0 pp pts​

That's not really all that productive from Terry. In fact, he's depreciated in PP production since the Carlyle days. What makes the fancy stats look useless is the fact that Comtois was able to surpass Terry in counting stats. Last year, Comtois had 16g + 17a = 33 points in 55 games. On the PP, Comtois had 1g + 3a = 4 pp points. For all the fancy stats that Terry possesses, it means all for naught if he's not also generating counting stats.

We're still waiting on Terry to produce. Like we're still waiting on Steel produce. Jones is just a physical presence and that's alright. Soon, we'll be waiting on Lundy to develop offense or he'll simply be a defensive center, which is 3C/4C status.

It's the NHL threshold that might be too strong for some prospects. Terry and Steel look very good in the AHL. Peter Holland also looked good at the AHL. Eventually, we're just gonna have to admit that we might have to move on from Terry and Steel if they can't prove they can produce well in the NHL. But boy do I hope Terry blossoms this year rather than rinse and repeat previous seasons with incremental improvement.

 

[bsu]

What do all those stats mean in context?

OZ Starts %

2018-19: 65.7%
2019-20: 60.2%
2020-21: 60.8%​

Because Terry starts often in the offensive zone, then the sample of offensive rating are skewed. I think we all know Terry has talent, but he truly lacks finish. Yet, we still need to look at actual counting stats:

Games and Points

2018-19: 32 games, 4g + 9a = 13 pts, +8.... PP points: 2g + 4a = 6 pp pts
2019-20: 47 games, 4g + 11a = 15 pts, -5.... PP points: 0g + 2a = 2 pp pts
2020-21: 48 games, 7g + 13a = 20 pts, -1.... PP points: 0g + 0a = 0 pp pts​

That's not really all that productive from Terry. In fact, he's depreciated in PP production since the Carlyle days. What makes the fancy stats look useless is the fact that Comtois was able to surpass Terry in counting stats. Last year, Comtois had 16g + 17a = 33 points in 55 games. On the PP, Comtois had 1g + 3a = 4 pp points. For all the fancy stats that Terry possesses, it means all for naught if he's not also generating counting stats.

We're still waiting on Terry to produce. Like we're still waiting on Steel produce. Jones is just a physical presence and that's alright. Soon, we'll be waiting on Lundy to develop offense or he'll simply be a defensive center, which is 3C/4C status.

It's the NHL threshold that might be too strong for some prospects. Terry and Steel look very good in the AHL. Peter Holland also looked good at the AHL. Eventually, we're just gonna have to admit that we might have to move on from Terry and Steel if they can't prove they can produce well in the NHL. But boy do I hope Terry blossoms this year rather than rinse and repeat previous seasons with incremental improvement.

That he is one of the best zone entry players in the entire NHL. Him and Zegras are literally the only 2 players on the entire roster I trust bringing the puck into the zone consistently. Rakell transition game went downhill quick.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

That he is one of the best zone entry players in the entire NHL. Him and Zegras are literally the only 2 players on the entire roster I trust bringing the puck into the zone consistently. Rakell transition game went downhill quick.

Hey. I'm pulling for Terry, but Zone Entries doesn't mean much if you're not doing anything with it on the offensive zone. I recall Steel being able to carry the puck into the offensive zone only to lose just as quickly as he gets in. But under 40% of Terry's starts are on the defensive zone. It might skew things compared to other players who start on the defensive zone more.

All those fancy stats doesn't mean much when it doesn't carry over to actual counting stats. Right now, Terry is just a place holder until someone better comes. I do want Terry to be more than a place holder, even a high-end passenger would be good for me.

 

[bsu]

Hey. I'm pulling for Terry, but Zone Entries doesn't mean much if you're not doing anything with it on the offensive zone. I recall Steel being able to carry the puck into the offensive zone only to lose just as quickly as he gets in. But under 40% of Terry's starts are on the defensive zone. It might skew things compared to other players who start on the defensive zone more.

All those fancy stats doesn't mean much when it doesn't carry over to actual counting stats. Right now, Terry is just a place holder until someone better comes. I do want Terry to be more than a place holder, even a high-end passenger would be good for me.

You act like the Ducks starting in the offensive zone is the biggest deal ever. We suck, we always have to get the puck back and re-enter. On this team we rarely have possession for longer than 10 seconds at a time. The moment he joins a team with a competent coach and lineup he will explode just like Wild Bill did.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Terry is just a place holder until someone better comes

This describes 80-90%of the roster. Terry will be one of the last guys in the line to be getting replaced..

 

[bsu]

This describes 80-90%of the roster. Terry will be one of the last guys in the line to be getting replaced..

I didn't even read his entire post.... Did he really say that I've seen enough.

 

[Deuce22]

There is certainly value in zone entries, but Terry's lack of finishing ability cancels that out. I've read a lot about how on a better team, with better line mates, with better coaching he would put up the counting stats that we are looking for. OK, but on a better team he might not even be seeing the ice. With better line mates, we might not even notice his skill at carrying the puck because someone better might have it instead. Terry's skill at carrying the puck is more noticeable because so few Ducks can do it well. As for better coaching, that will have to wait.