Speculation: Trouba Contract Discussion Part II

[YWGinYYZ]

Thank you for the moment of sanity and level headed writing. I think this article comes pretty close to stripping out the white noise.

LWA has some really well researched and thought out articles. Along with AIC and Garret's stuff, it's one of the blogs that I most enjoy reading.

I still think the negotiations get drawn out to the last minute, then we see something like a 6x$5M deal.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Until he is signed I can't see why we can't speculate

I can't say why I think he might be traded on these boards but I will continue to speculate on it.

I also believe Trouba will play for another team at some point in his career, perhhaps even sooner than we would hope. I just don't think his trade is imminent.

 

[ps241]

LWA has some really well researched and thought out articles. Along with AIC and Garret's stuff, it's one of the blogs that I most enjoy reading.

I still think the negotiations get drawn out to the last minute, then we see something like a 6x$5M deal.

Yup that is how I see it going too but the really good news is unlike Buff and Ladd this should sort itself out one way or the other in September.

 

[Halloween Jack]

LWA has some really well researched and thought out articles. Along with AIC and Garret's stuff, it's one of the blogs that I most enjoy reading.

I still think the negotiations get drawn out to the last minute, then we see something like a 6x$5M deal.

My brother writes the Jets articles for LWA. He seems to ALWAYS hit the nail on the head when it comes to hockey. I highly recommend regularly reading his articles.

 

[Whileee]

It depends on what the return is does it not?

I don't think he'll be traded.

This. If he doesn't want to be here, trade him for full value and don't let the door hit you on the way out. If location is more important than anything else, good riddance.

 

[puck stoppa]

This. If he doesn't want to be here, trade him for full value and don't let the door hit you on the way out. If location is more important than anything else, good riddance.

If he wants out Chevy will play it the same way as the Kane situation, he will be very patient, and wait for something that makes sense to him. If Trouba signs for six years just north of 5 million what will his trade value be worth in two year? Quite high Id imagine. Be interesting what happens between now and then with our D's, Im a little worried trading Trouba then would leave a massive hole. But Ive thought for some time now that we will be trading a few of our many fwrd prospects for a top 4 D.

 

[mcpw]

My brother writes the Jets articles for LWA. He seems to ALWAYS hit the nail on the head when it comes to hockey. I highly recommend regularly reading his articles.

*notes: search for articles by Frank James on lwos*

 

[KingBogo]

It actually makes quite a bit of sense to expect this negotiation to drag out until some logical deadline before being completed with a signed contract. Here's why it makes sense for both sides to drag this out...

1) Chevy doesn't have any time pressure now - In some situations a GM has some pressure to complete some contracts before moving on to others, either to set some parameters around internal salary structures or to manage cap situations. Trouba is Chevy's last contract so he doesn't have any pressure to finish Trouba's contract before sorting out others. In addition, Trouba isn't scheduled to even skate with the Jets for several weeks with the upcoming WHC, so the Jets aren't losing anything without having Trouba signed. In fact, the WHC will replace training camp in terms of getting Trouba sharp and in game shape. The only way for Chevy to really rush through the negotiation is to start bidding against himself, basically increasing his existing offer without any impetus for doing that. With no pressure on Chevy, he can wait until the pressure increases on Trouba which would be a more likely time to get the best deal.

2) Trouba will get his best offer closer to the season - I expect that Chevy has already made some offers to Trouba (various terms and salaries). These are now set, since it is highly unlikely that Chevy would contemplate reducing his offers. So at this point there is only upside for Trouba to wait until Chevy has a bit more incentive. Chevy's offers can only go up. The worst case scenario for Trouba is that he accepts one of the offers already on the table. So why not wait and see Chevy's best offer?

My guess is that this will drag out until there's a critical balance in terms of pressure on both sides to get a deal done, when Chevy is inclined to give his best offer and Trouba's bargaining power is at it's peak.

My guess is that it will either be just before the WHC or just before the Jets regular season begins. Once the season begins, Chevy is most likely to "fix" his offers so that ongoing delays in signing won't help Trouba, and will actually start taking money out of his pocket.

So, if both sides are looking toward a long-term deal, I expect it not to happen until we are closer to the regular season.

Agree with this. Both sides are standing pat for the moment. Though I do believe the WHC is a big pressure point. It seems likely both sides would like to go into it with a deal in place even with insurance in place. I'd be surprised if they didn't amp up negotiations running into the WHC training camp. Not sure it will it be enough of a pressure point to get a deal but I'm hopeful.

 

[KingBogo]

Putting ANY specific number in there is just idle speculation at this point. Claiming that some other number would have got it done is worse. We don't know if $$$ is the holdup. We don't even know that there is a holdup. If there is a holdup over $$$ we don't know which side is the more 'unreasonable'. All we know is that they haven't signed a contract yet and that there is no particular urgency at this point for them to have done so.

When deadlines of some kind start passing we can start getting excited. In the meantime it is just business as usual.

Agree 100% with this. Yes a big overpay gets it done today, but both sides are doing their jobs in grinding out a deal. No one knows how far apart they are. For all we know they are within spitting distance of each other and one more push with the pressure point of the World Hockey training camp hammers out the final numbers.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Until he is signed I can't see why we can't speculate

I can't say why I think he might be traded on these boards but I will continue to speculate on it.

Speculate away. How about he signs and is traded in the not too distant future? I agree with AC that he pretty much has to sign now even if he is to be traded. An interested GM would tell Chevy to call him when Trouba is signed.

I'm not as invested in Trouba as some here. I'm happy if he stays. I'm happy if he goes. All I want is good value either way.

 

[CaptainChef]

Speculate away. How about he signs and is traded in the not too distant future? I agree with AC that he pretty much has to sign now even if he is to be traded. An interested GM would tell Chevy to call him when Trouba is signed.
.

Well I sure am glad we are allowed to speculate again lol. Still say they wait another month or so & sign at the last minute.

 

[Bob E]

My guess is Chevy is using Maatta as a compareable, and Trouba's camp is somewhere around Myers or Hamilton.

Chevy won't, in his good conscious, go over $5 mill/yr on a long term deal. Trouba's camp won't accept anything less than Myers, and is likely pushing for a Hamilton deal. He probably wants to be ahead of Myers on the pecking order (usage wise), and be paid like it.

Maybe a Maatta for Trouba deal would work for both teams.

 

[ffh]

My guess is Chevy is using Maatta as a compareable, and Trouba's camp is somewhere around Myers or Hamilton.

Chevy won't, in his good conscious, go over $5 mill/yr on a long term deal. Trouba's camp won't accept anything less than Myers, and is likely pushing for a Hamilton deal. He probably wants to be ahead of Myers on the pecking order (usage wise), and be paid like it.

Maybe a Maatta for Trouba deal would work for both teams.

not a chance. maattas agent was on radio and said they took less money at a longer term because of health and concussion issues. so you cant compare the two. also pitts up against the cap so why trade for a player they cant afford even at 4.5 mill a year.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

My brother writes the Jets articles for LWA. He seems to ALWAYS hit the nail on the head when it comes to hockey. I highly recommend regularly reading his articles.

this is most likely because he follows me on twitter

 

[CorgisPer60]

I don't want Maatta. As was said, he has significant health issues already. I don't want that when we have a guy who's only significant health issue was being too zealous on a back check and ramming his head into the end boards.

 

[Eyeseeing]

My gut is he bridges.
IF he does sign long term
, I'm thinking 5.35 x 6 is all the club would go.
Be nice to be a fly on the wall

 

[Aavco Cup]

My guess is Chevy is using Maatta as a compareable, and Trouba's camp is somewhere around Myers or Hamilton.

Chevy won't, in his good conscious, go over $5 mill/yr on a long term deal. Trouba's camp won't accept anything less than Myers, and is likely pushing for a Hamilton deal. He probably wants to be ahead of Myers on the pecking order (usage wise), and be paid like it.

Maybe a Maatta for Trouba deal would work for both teams.

The Jets will have to sign Trouba in order to trade him.

Those sound like comparables for the start of negotiations.

 

[KingBogo]

Speculate away. How about he signs and is traded in the not too distant future? I agree with AC that he pretty much has to sign now even if he is to be traded. An interested GM would tell Chevy to call him when Trouba is signed.

I'm not as invested in Trouba as some here. I'm happy if he stays. I'm happy if he goes. All I want is good value either way.

The Jets will have to sign Trouba in order to trade him.

Those sound like comparables for the start of negotiations.

I agree it is unlikely Trouba gets traded without a contract the possibility does exist. While Trouba is restricted he is still a free agent. Overhardt can talk contracts with any other team. While a team may not be willing to extend an offer sheet it seems probable to me a GM could get a pretty good handle on Trouba's asking price and desire to play for that team. Chevy's cap space is his ace in the hole ensuring he isn't forced to take pennies on the dollar but that doesn't mean another GM would't still pursue Trouba's rights if he was confident on what it would take to sign him.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I agree it is unlikely Trouba gets traded without a contract the possibility does exist. While Trouba is restricted he is still a free agent. Overhardt can talk contracts with any other team. While a team may not be willing to extend an offer sheet it seems probable to me a GM could get a pretty good handle on Trouba's asking price and desire to play for that team. Chevy's cap space is his ace in the hole ensuring he isn't forced to take pennies on the dollar but that doesn't mean another GM would't still pursue Trouba's rights if he was confident on what it would take to sign him.

Name a player in Trouba's position whose rights were traded so close to the start of the season. It just doesn't happen. It would have to be a sign and trade IMO.

An offersheet is not going to happen. A trade without a contract is not going to happen. Trouba will sign a contract with the Jets IMO

 

[KingBogo]

Name a player in Trouba's position whose rights were traded so close to the start of the season. It just doesn't happen. It would have to be a sign and trade IMO.

An offersheet is not going to happen. A trade without a contract is not going to happen. Trouba will sign a contract with the Jets IMO

Weren't Hamilton and Saad traded as unsigned RFA's? True it was much earlier in the off season but circumstances are always different. Doesn't mean it is not a possibility even if unlikely.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Weren't Hamilton and Saad traded as unsigned RFA's? True it was much earlier in the off season but circumstances are always different. Doesn't mean it is not a possibility even if unlikely.

Those players were traded at the beginning of the offseason. If the Jets were going to trade Trouba this offseason that is when it would have occurred.

No GM will trade for Trouba's rights at this point. They would work on a sign and trade. Let Chevy get the nasty work done and then acquire Trouba without any "contract animosity"

Imagine starting negotiations with Overhardt now.? The acquiring GM is at a disadvantage because of the assets given up and the short timeframe. It would be extremely unlikely that there is a GM that would take that on. It just doesn't happen. The players traded in this situation sign a contract first. Why would Trouba be any different?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree it is unlikely Trouba gets traded without a contract the possibility does exist. While Trouba is restricted he is still a free agent. Overhardt can talk contracts with any other team. While a team may not be willing to extend an offer sheet it seems probable to me a GM could get a pretty good handle on Trouba's asking price and desire to play for that team. Chevy's cap space is his ace in the hole ensuring he isn't forced to take pennies on the dollar but that doesn't mean another GM would't still pursue Trouba's rights if he was confident on what it would take to sign him.

The offer sheet possibility still exists but I think if that were going to happen it would have by now. That is quite different than a trade but its true that another GM could talk to Overhardt before negotiating a deal. Aavco pointed out earlier, why not let Chevy do the spade work. The only reason I can think of is a little unlikely I think. If Trouba really just wants out then another team might be able to trade for him and then negotiate a more favourable deal than the one Overhardt would fight Chevy for.

 

[Bob E]

My preference would still be to sign Trouba and move one of Myers or Enstrom prior to expansion draft.

Trading Myers or Enstrom allows Trouba to be the clear #2 d man on Jets, now, and heir apparent to Buff's #1 role.

But Trouba's camp likely wants to be paid like he's already in that role, I agrue he already is, and Jets want a pay him less. I think the end game is the same, Jets want to get a discount, Imo. A Little or Wheeler contract discount.

If I was Trouba, I'd want more too. At least $5.25 -$5.5 mill on a 6 yr deal.

 

[Aavco Cup]

The offer sheet possibility still exists but I think if that were going to happen it would have by now. That is quite different than a trade but its true that another GM could talk to Overhardt before negotiating a deal. Aavco pointed out earlier, why not let Chevy do the spade work. The only reason I can think of is a little unlikely I think. If Trouba really just wants out then another team might be able to trade for him and then negotiate a more favourable deal than the one Overhardt would fight Chevy for.

Overhardt being Overhardt would take the opportunity to play his advantage, not lower his demands IMO

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Overhardt being Overhardt would take the opportunity to play his advantage, not lower his demands IMO

Your talking likely. I'm talking possibly.

I agree with you that he almost certainly will sign first and then either be traded or not. However, considering that other GMs could talk contract with Overhardt they could have a tentative agreement, subject to the other team being able to arrange a trade. Not the most likely scenario but possible.