Speculation: Trouba Contract Discussion Part II

[Romang67]

Continued from:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2074255

I hear ya. I also believe that TSNE hold all the cards here. There is a cost/benefit ratio that factors into sitting out regular season games however. From the agent/player perspective it might be worth a few paychecks now in order to secure extra money over multiple years.

Subban is actually a good case of this. He sat out the first four games of the season (contrary to your belief), and ended up with a generous bridge deal. The bridge worked in his favour since he won the Norris the next year and was able to secure a lucrative deal as an RFA with arb rights.

Johansen is interesting. He ended up signing a 3 year bridge before the season started, but when you look at the numbers you can see why. The first two years were 3mil while the 3rd year was 6mil. A 4mil AAV seems reasonable, but it belies that backloaded year that was closer to Johansen's ask of 2 year, 13mil. Lo and behold, Johansen gets traded before that 6mil year..

Although I think that Chevy and Overhardt will get a deal done, the circumstances around Trouba are ripe for another Peca-esque situation. Chevy is not going to fold, the Jets have bodies to fill RHD and they might just do an adequate job (not as good as Troubs.. but). If Trouba does sit out part of the regular season and the Jets put up some wins during that time, this could drag on.

I still feel strongly that he'll be out for all of TC, but I'd be happy to be wrong. If he signs a bridge then he's as good as traded.

He might sit out, but it will quickly become economically disadvantageous in the longer term. Missing half a season, and as much as $3 million in salary would be very difficult to make up over a 6 year deal (he'd need to get more than an extra $0.5M per year in salary to make it financially equivalent).

$5.5M per year x 6 years is better than $6M per year x 6 years after sitting out half a season.

I think he would only sit out if there is a huge gap in salary, or he really doesn't want to stay long-term and his agent is trying to get a short-term "bridge" deal with the Jets that is very disadvantageous for the Jets. Once he holds out, the Jets can wield quite a bit of financial pressure and Trouba takes on quite a bit of financial risk.

I think he'll sign right before TC is set to begin personally. If he truly does want to be traded sitting out is the single worst thing you can do. If you show up and showcase what you can do then the teams are watching a kid that can play and will work hard for the team no.matter the situation. If you sit out, you look entitled.

He should only be traded if it's a deal that helps the team in the long haul.

I'd love for you to provide an example of a 22 year old burgeoning star defenceman whose career was ended by holding out. There is ZERO chance that, no matter how long he holds out, this is the end of his career. That is frankly a ridiculous and unsupportable notion.

The reality is, Trouba does have some degree of power in the form of asset utilization. I moved from Winnipeg to Toronto and, on my walk to work over the last 2 years, 4 (4!) separate surface parking lots have been torn up and replaced by condos in the span of 1.5km. Why? Because the land is an asset and that asset became underutilized at some point when condo prices rose to a certain level if it remained as a parking lot.

Trouba is an asset. A valuable asset at that. His power comes from sitting out and leaving the Jets with an asset that isn't being capitalized on. Potentially, Trouba and his management team could make the return in a trade the best use for the Jets of their asset (whether that be by simply not playing, not participating in extra practice, lifting sessions, etc., being problematic in the dressing room, etc.).

Unfortunately, everything seems to be pointing towards Trouba wanting out. From hiring an agent with a proven track record of getting players traded (Dubinsky, Johansson, Turris....), to the fact that there hasn't seemed to have been a lot of movement between the two sides, to the reports that have trickled out, the tea leaves are shouting "Trouba wants a trade".

And that's ok. Winnipeg is not a market for everyone. I love Winnipeg and loved living there and will likely be back. But I grew up there, having family and friends in the city and understand the appeal. There will be people that don't like playing there. In the same way, there are players that don't want to be in Toronto, New York, Florida, etc. This will happen every few years with certain players - fact of life, let's accept it and trust Chevy to make the best decision and use of the valuable assets he's compiled.

Of course Trouba will be out for most of the training camp. The World cup potentially runs until October 1st, Semi-finals for the top 2 finishers in each group are on Sept 24/25 and the Finals are Sept 27, 29 and Oct 1st if necessary. The regular season starts Oct 12th so he'll miss a good portion of training camp regardless.

Carry on.

Click to read more...

 

[Unholy goalie]

He might sit out, but it will quickly become economically disadvantageous in the longer term. Missing half a season, and as much as $3 million in salary would be very difficult to make up over a 6 year deal (he'd need to get more than an extra $0.5M per year in salary to make it financially equivalent).

$5.5M per year x 6 years is better than $6M per year x 6 years after sitting out half a season.

I think he would only sit out if there is a huge gap in salary, or he really doesn't want to stay long-term and his agent is trying to get a short-term "bridge" deal with the Jets that is very disadvantageous for the Jets. Once he holds out, the Jets can wield quite a bit of financial pressure and Trouba takes on quite a bit of financial risk.

Yep. I commented in another post on the cost/benefit ratio that comes with sitting out.

Although, more than 0.5M per year over 6 years is easy to make up when you are a top pair defenseman in the league. Subban's contract, which was brought up initially by Aavco, is an example of this (though not necessarily indicative of what will happen with Trouba).

I would say the financial risk is probably at a minimum for a player like Trouba who is still early in his career and a valuable player. No players of note have sat an entire year since Micheal Peca (who is Brendan Witt, amirite?). It is certainly possible that this could be financially better for Trouba.

But let's be honest, Overhardt and Trouba are barking up the wrong tree here. They should be eager to get a reasonable deal done. Everything is in place that would allow them to do so, and they really have no leverage here other than the gamble of sitting out. It's a gamble that I don't think will pay of with Chevy and the Jets as it has with other teams/GM's in the past.

 

[Unholy goalie]

Originally Posted by sully1410

I think he'll sign right before TC is set to begin personally. If he truly does want to be traded sitting out is the single worst thing you can do. If you show up and showcase what you can do then the teams are watching a kid that can play and will work hard for the team no.matter the situation. If you sit out, you look entitled.

He should only be traded if it's a deal that helps the team in the long haul.

I'm not sure he wants to be traded. I do think he and his agent are trying for what they think is the best deal available. Sitting out could help him with this as it has for other Overhardt clients.

The WCOH will also be an excuse for either or both sides to take a break from negotiations and see how Trouba plays. Since the WCOH overlaps with the start of training camp, there's no reason to think any deal will get done until after the tournament is over.

He might look entitled, and it may also cause some clashes with the overall team image that I think TNSE is trying for. In the examples provided in this thread (Subban, Turris, Dubinsky, Johansen) all players have been traded at opportune moments stemming from deals that came when they were RFA. Subban is the only one who didn't have Overhardt as an agent.

Trouba's actions, if we can really call them his, are all in line with these other clients of Overhardt. If he signs a bridge deal, a trade is likely coming no matter when that deal is signed.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

 

[Unholy goalie]

Set it and forget it..

 

[LastWordArmy]

No reason to panic over Trouba Contract Negotiation.

http://lastwordonsports.com/2016/08/25/jacob-trouba-contract-negotiations/

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

No reason to panic over Trouba Contract Negotiation.

http://lastwordonsports.com/2016/08/25/jacob-trouba-contract-negotiations/

Wow a well written & thought out article was shared here! A rarity as of late.

 

[Whileee]

It actually makes quite a bit of sense to expect this negotiation to drag out until some logical deadline before being completed with a signed contract. Here's why it makes sense for both sides to drag this out...

1) Chevy doesn't have any time pressure now - In some situations a GM has some pressure to complete some contracts before moving on to others, either to set some parameters around internal salary structures or to manage cap situations. Trouba is Chevy's last contract so he doesn't have any pressure to finish Trouba's contract before sorting out others. In addition, Trouba isn't scheduled to even skate with the Jets for several weeks with the upcoming WHC, so the Jets aren't losing anything without having Trouba signed. In fact, the WHC will replace training camp in terms of getting Trouba sharp and in game shape. The only way for Chevy to really rush through the negotiation is to start bidding against himself, basically increasing his existing offer without any impetus for doing that. With no pressure on Chevy, he can wait until the pressure increases on Trouba which would be a more likely time to get the best deal.

2) Trouba will get his best offer closer to the season - I expect that Chevy has already made some offers to Trouba (various terms and salaries). These are now set, since it is highly unlikely that Chevy would contemplate reducing his offers. So at this point there is only upside for Trouba to wait until Chevy has a bit more incentive. Chevy's offers can only go up. The worst case scenario for Trouba is that he accepts one of the offers already on the table. So why not wait and see Chevy's best offer?

My guess is that this will drag out until there's a critical balance in terms of pressure on both sides to get a deal done, when Chevy is inclined to give his best offer and Trouba's bargaining power is at it's peak.

My guess is that it will either be just before the WHC or just before the Jets regular season begins. Once the season begins, Chevy is most likely to "fix" his offers so that ongoing delays in signing won't help Trouba, and will actually start taking money out of his pocket.

So, if both sides are looking toward a long-term deal, I expect it not to happen until we are closer to the regular season.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Wow a well written & thought out article was shared here! A rarity as of late.

Agreed, it kinda calmed me down a bit.

I have to believe the WCH puts pressure on the Trouba camp on some level. Even with insurance there is risk associated to playing without a deal in place. I put my money on or just before the start of the touranment,

 

[DRC]

Enjoyed reading that.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Enjoyed reading that.

Good article
Nobody really knows what's up

 

[Puckatron 3000]

No reason to panic over Trouba Contract Negotiation.

http://lastwordonsports.com/2016/08/25/jacob-trouba-contract-negotiations/

Yup. Good stuff.

 

[puck stoppa]

Yup. Good stuff.

How come he didn't reference hf boards jets

 

[Puckatron 3000]

How come he didn't reference hf boards jets

Heh. To be honest, I'm very pleased to read any article on the Jets that approaches the level of discussion around here, among the more thoughtful and knowledgeable posters.

Then again, we have our fair share of... "less informed" folks around here too. (especially me)

 

[CorgisPer60]

Heh. To be honest, I'm very pleased to read any article on the Jets that approaches the level of discussion around here, among the more thoughtful and knowledgeable posters.

Then again, we have our fair share of... "less informed" folks around here too. (especially me)

Trouba is asking for too much and isn't as good as Myers and he wants out so trade him because who needs him?

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Trouba is asking for too much and isn't as good as Myers and he wants out so trade him because who needs him?

Yep. Pretty much that.

 

[Unholy goalie]

No reason to panic over Trouba Contract Negotiation.

http://lastwordonsports.com/2016/08/25/jacob-trouba-contract-negotiations/

I don't think anyone is panicking, but this article doesn't offer anything that would change the landscape of possibility.

The crux of the author's "don't worry yet" mantra rests on this quote:

It’s almost as if it makes perfect sense as to why both sides are making this a deadline signing.​

The question is which deadline? The only hard deadline is Nov. 30 when Trouba risks becoming ineligible to play in the NHL for the rest of the season. Sure, we could talk about before TC and after TC as logical transitions that feel like deadlines, but Overhardt has proven that he is willing to ignore them.

I don't think missing part or all of TC will put that much pressure on the Jets since they have a lot of talent to evaluate and some depth at RHD that can fill in. It's going to take some regular season games, specifically losses, to turn up the heat.

My guess is that if Trouba has an average to below average WCOH, this thing costs some regular season games. If he has a stellar WCOH, this gets done in the last week of training camp.

 

[DRC]

Trouba is asking for too much and isn't as good as Myers and he wants out so trade him because who needs him?

Lol. Myers is tall!!

 

[ecolad]

I don't think anyone is panicking, but this article doesn't offer anything that would change the landscape of possibility.

The crux of the author's "don't worry yet" mantra rests on this quote:

It’s almost as if it makes perfect sense as to why both sides are making this a deadline signing.​

The question is which deadline? The only hard deadline is Nov. 30 when Trouba risks becoming ineligible to play in the NHL for the rest of the season. Sure, we could talk about before TC and after TC as logical transitions that feel like deadlines, but Overhardt has proven that he is willing to ignore them.

I don't think missing part or all of TC will put that much pressure on the Jets since they have a lot of talent to evaluate and some depth at RHD that can fill in. It's going to take some regular season games, specifically losses, to turn up the heat.

My guess is that if Trouba has an average to below average WCOH, this thing costs some regular season games. If he has a stellar WCOH, this gets done in the last week of training camp.

Exactly right. IMO these negotiations should be set up with both ownership and player`s agents knowing from the outset that there will be a hard deadline in place (opening of training camp), followed by a period of NO negotiation whatsoever for a fixed period of time. This period of no negotiation would have to be to be sufficiently long that both sides of the table would feel significant loss and would make every effort to avoid same. Ownership would suffer by not having the player on the roster, and, the player/agent would suffer foregone salary.

 

[10Ducky10]

2 year bridge with 3.75m per year???

 

[ffh]

Some of you people make it sound like they have been sitting at a table for 2 months straight 12 hours a day. The probably havent even emailed each other more than once or twice a week in august. Can we at least get into mid september before we lose our minds.

 

[Waldo]

2 year bridge with 3.75m per year???

Cody Ceci signed a 2 yr bridge deal for $5.65. I like Ceci slightly more than Trouba but see them as being within the same range. That should be the value for Trouba on a 2 yr bridge deal.

http://slam.canoe.com/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Ottawa/2016/08/24/22661524.html

 

[Blue Shakehead]

It actually makes quite a bit of sense to expect this negotiation to drag out until some logical deadline before being completed with a signed contract. Here's why it makes sense for both sides to drag this out...

1) Chevy doesn't have any time pressure now - In some situations a GM has some pressure to complete some contracts before moving on to others, either to set some parameters around internal salary structures or to manage cap situations. Trouba is Chevy's last contract so he doesn't have any pressure to finish Trouba's contract before sorting out others. In addition, Trouba isn't scheduled to even skate with the Jets for several weeks with the upcoming WHC, so the Jets aren't losing anything without having Trouba signed. In fact, the WHC will replace training camp in terms of getting Trouba sharp and in game shape. The only way for Chevy to really rush through the negotiation is to start bidding against himself, basically increasing his existing offer without any impetus for doing that. With no pressure on Chevy, he can wait until the pressure increases on Trouba which would be a more likely time to get the best deal.

2) Trouba will get his best offer closer to the season - I expect that Chevy has already made some offers to Trouba (various terms and salaries). These are now set, since it is highly unlikely that Chevy would contemplate reducing his offers. So at this point there is only upside for Trouba to wait until Chevy has a bit more incentive. Chevy's offers can only go up. The worst case scenario for Trouba is that he accepts one of the offers already on the table. So why not wait and see Chevy's best offer?

My guess is that this will drag out until there's a critical balance in terms of pressure on both sides to get a deal done, when Chevy is inclined to give his best offer and Trouba's bargaining power is at it's peak.

My guess is that it will either be just before the WHC or just before the Jets regular season begins. Once the season begins, Chevy is most likely to "fix" his offers so that ongoing delays in signing won't help Trouba, and will actually start taking money out of his pocket.

So, if both sides are looking toward a long-term deal, I expect it not to happen until we are closer to the regular season.

This is a good post and is far more plausible than the "Trouba hates Winnipeg" trope we hear every morning from the tall foreheads at 1290. Regardless of the circumstances that are holding up the deal, we have all the leverage in this situation. The likeliness of Trouba sitting out and missing pay cheques is something approaching nil/zip/zero, IMO.

 

[Daximus]

This is a good post and is far more plausible than the "Trouba hates Winnipeg" trope we hear every morning from the tall foreheads at 1290. Regardless of the circumstances that are holding up the deal, we have all the leverage in this situation. The likeliness of Trouba sitting out and missing pay cheques is something approaching nil/zip/zero, IMO.

Copp will cover his rent for awhile.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Michael Grosso ‏*********** 4h4 hours ago

Hearing Jets and Trouba's camp have been talking a lot recently in order to get a contract done but problem is with $$. (1/2)
One source said if he doesn't get the money he (Trouba) wants, he will demand for a trade before the season starts. (2/2)