We have improved a tonne defensively, no doubt. We're one of the better defensive teams in the league.
Also agreed with this:
"I’m signing off on them learning to win," said the Winnipeg native. "I’m not signing off on the Leafs because there’s a team like Boston there, and Tampa. But I’m saying great competition — great teams like Tampa and Boston — Toronto’s learning from that. I know if you’re a Toronto fan, it’s been death by 1,000 cuts over the years, but you’ll break through. They’ll break through. It’ll happen. I don’t know if it’ll happen this year, but it’ll happen. It just will."
I do feel we're one of the top teams in the league, period. But unfortunately, so are Boston and Tampa, and with divisional playoffs we very likely have to go through both (unless by some miracle Boston get eliminated in round 1). It's possible, but I'd say us vs. Tampa is about 50/50, and we'd be moderate underdogs vs. Boston (they are the best team in the league by a wide margin). So say a 50% chance to make it to round 2, and more like 15-20% to make it to round 3.
FWIW, when I look at our various 1st round exits:
- 2017 vs Caps: we were a largely rookie team against a much better team, it was a shock we even made the playoffs. Would've taken a miracle to win
- 2018 vs Bruins: the Bruins were quite a bit better and more experienced, we did well getting to game 7
- 2019 vs Bruins: more even with AM/Mitch/Willie gaining experience, but we were still underdogs
- 2020 vs BJs: we were a significantly better team and choked
- 2021 vs Habs: we were a WAYYY better team and choked (though JT injury didn't help)
- 2022 vs Lightning: teams were very evenly matched, 50/50, series went down to the wire. I actually thought we slightly outplayed them but got a touch unlucky
So overall:
- Seasons 1/2: if anything, exceeded expectations
- Season 3: slight underdogs, had a real shot but lost in 7
- Seasons 4/5: choked, bad losses
- Season 6: played well but lost a very evenly matched series in 7
Last year is IMO the best we've ever played in the playoffs, that series on its own would not be overly disappointing, it was very disappointing because of the long history of losing. Hopefully we can ramp up our play a notch even from 2022, and make it past the Lightning at least.