Trevor Timmins discussion, when does he get blamed?

[Sorinth]

I'm not sure it makes sense to do it on a per pick basis once you get out of the top-10. They have 27th at 40% yet the picks around it in the mid 20s. They have picking 31st at 55% yet 30th 28th%.

 

[bsl]

Kucherov, Palat and Johnson are exactly what I'm trying to get at. Kucherov is a second round pick, Palat is a 7th round pick, and Tyler Johnson is undrafted! This is what I'm saying, you don't need to be bad to get players like this. You don't need to be a bad team to get quality depth. You need a solid mix of luck and good drafting/player scouting. The players that are making the biggest difference for Tampa bay right now (apart from Hedman) are the players they took later in a draft or acquired through trade. Basically their entire defense is made up of players acquired through trade. Their best line is three players who were taken outside of the first round (two of whom, WAY outside the first)

Drafting in the top ten does not guarantee you get a star. Look at Kucherov, Palat and Johnson. One was taken in the seventh round, the other undrafted. The last was taken in the second round. Take Edmonton, who has more top picks than anyone in the league in the past decade, and compare them to Chicago, and tell me the main difference ISN'T management.

Without Stamkos and Hedman Tampa would be golfing. I like your thinking but wake up dude. Top picks win cups.

 

[Nynja*]

Without Stamkos and Hedman Tampa would be golfing. I like your thinking but wake up dude. Top picks win cups.

Kings recent first rounders, in reverse chronological order:
2012 Entry 30 1 Tanner Pearson L Barrie Colts [OHL]
2011 none
2010 Entry 15 1 Derek Forbort D U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
2009 Entry 5 1 Brayden Schenn C Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL]
2008 Entry 2 1 Drew Doughty D Guelph Storm [OHL]
2007 Entry 4 1 Thomas Hickey D Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
2006 Entry 11 1 Jonathan Bernier G Lewiston MAINEiacs [QMJHL]
2005 Entry 11 1 Anze Kopitar C Sodertalje Jrs [Sweden]
2004 Entry 11 1 Lauri Tukonen R Blues [SM-liiga]
2003 Entry 13 1 Dustin Brown R Guelph Storm [OHL]
2002 Entry 18 1 Denis Grebeshkov D Yaroslavl Lokomotiv [Russia]


Forbort, Schenn, Hickey, Bernier and Tukonen were really crucial to their two cups! Top picks win cups baby! Edmonton is doing great with all their first overalls, eh? Top picks do indeed win cups, is that you McTavish?

 

[ECWHSWI]

Kings recent first rounders, in reverse chronological order:
2012 Entry 30 1 Tanner Pearson L Barrie Colts [OHL]
2011 none
2010 Entry 15 1 Derek Forbort D U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
2009 Entry 5 1 Brayden Schenn C Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL]
2008 Entry 2 1 Drew Doughty D Guelph Storm [OHL]
2007 Entry 4 1 Thomas Hickey D Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
2006 Entry 11 1 Jonathan Bernier G Lewiston MAINEiacs [QMJHL]
2005 Entry 11 1 Anze Kopitar C Sodertalje Jrs [Sweden]
2004 Entry 11 1 Lauri Tukonen R Blues [SM-liiga]
2003 Entry 13 1 Dustin Brown R Guelph Storm [OHL]
2002 Entry 18 1 Denis Grebeshkov D Yaroslavl Lokomotiv [Russia]


Forbort, Schenn, Hickey, Bernier and Tukonen were really crucial to their two cups! Top picks win cups baby! Edmonton is doing great with all their first overalls, eh? Top picks do indeed win cups, is that you McTavish?

think they'd have their 2 cups without Kopitar/Doughty ?

 

[Nynja*]

think they'd have their 2 cups without Kopitar/Doughty ?

Kopitar's an 11th rounder!!

 

[DAChampion]

Brayden Schenn actually was crucial to their first cup -- he was traded for Mike Richards.

Moreover, Kings got 4th overall Jack Johnson for free, who was traded for Jeff Carter.

 

[Whitesnake]

Without Stamkos and Hedman Tampa would be golfing. I like your thinking but wake up dude. Top picks win cups.

What? Sorry, but in these playoffs, without Johnson they would be golfing.

 

[WG]

I'm not sure it makes sense to do it on a per pick basis once you get out of the top-10. They have 27th at 40% yet the picks around it in the mid 20s. They have picking 31st at 55% yet 30th 28th%.

That graph is a fairly complicated way of stating the (hopefully) obvious, as you get deeper into the draft your chances of finding a good player get less.

It would certainly benefit from some blank spaces for clarity though. Montreal's 1st pick is 27OV and has that 40% chance; the teams around them don't have a 1st this year so STL, CHI, etc. first pick will be 50-60 OV and therefore much lower chance. If they pushed Chicago's first pick underneath the other teams' second rounders it would make more sense.

 

[DAChampion]

What? Sorry, but in these playoffs, without Johnson they would be golfing.

They have multiple indispensible players.

 

[bsl]

What? Sorry, but in these playoffs, without Johnson they would be golfing.

Stamkos occupies the other team's best checkers, with his line, making room for Johnson and his line. I thought this was obvious. Do you think Johnson would have performed this well without Stamkos on the team?

And Hedman might win the conn smythe.

 

[Whitesnake]

Stamkos occupies the other team's best checkers, with his line, making room for Johnson and his line. I thought this was obvious. Do you think Johnson would have performed this well without Stamkos on the team?

And Hedman might win the conn smythe.

Come on now. What did Stamkos had on his line that was really working? While everybody on Johnson's line is working and Johnson is the playoffs #1 scorer, yet he's only getting the 2nd best defensive opponents 'cause Stamkos MIGHT explode? Yeah right. That's some great coaching we have in this league...the triplets line is killing us game after game after game, yet...let's keep our best checkers for the guys that are hurting us less 'cause that way, we'll know where the offense is coming even if we have no solutions against it....

Show me the number of "Quality of competition" in these playoffs while I look at the regular season stats and see that the triplets line have played against better competition than Stamkos....

 

[hototogisu]

Without Stamkos and Hedman Tampa would be golfing. I like your thinking but wake up dude. Top picks win cups.

Tampa hasn't won a Cup yet. (edit: I mean under the current regime, obviously)

What about the Rangers? They didn't win a Cup either. But Finals last year, ECF this year, clearly a well-built, sustainable team...what top picks have they relied on?

 

[le_sean]

Tampa hasn't won a Cup yet.

What about the Rangers? They didn't win a Cup either. But Finals last year, ECF this year, clearly a well-built, sustainable team...what top picks have they relied on?

The 12th overall pick in 2007

 

[hototogisu]

The 12th overall pick in 2007

I knew I was setting myself up for that but if Kopitar doesn't count, neither does McDonagh

 

[Scintillating10]

lol

MADE him draft a defenseman?

I'm a huge fan of Timmins but you can't give him credit for the great picks and blame somebody else for the bad ones.

Overall he's one of the top 5 HS in the NHL.

A lot of pressure to rebuild defense at time. He liked Giroux, been discussed many times on here. Just giving credit where it is due

 

[DAChampion]

Read on this forum:

Timmins drafted in Leblanc in 2009, because the draft was held in Montreal, he preferred Kreider.
Timmins wanted John Carlson in 2008, but the pick was traded for Tanguay.
Timmins wanted Giroux in 2006, but a scout pushed him to pick Fischer.

The only one I actually trust:
The second choice after Price in 2005 was Marc Staal.

 

[Whitesnake]

Read on this forum:

Timmins drafted in Leblanc in 2009, because the draft was held in Montreal, he preferred Kreider.
Timmins wanted John Carlson in 2008, but the pick was traded for Tanguay.
Timmins wanted Giroux in 2006, but a scout pushed him to pick Fischer.

The only one I actually trust:
The second choice after Price in 2005 was Marc Staal.

So your point is that the list we saw for Leblanc was made with the idea that the draft was in Montréal? What if the #8 pick was not taken? How come Kreider is only in the acceptable list? How come he's 3rd in the acceptable list? That's BS.

If Timmins wanted Giroux in 2006, Timmins would have picked Giroux. A scout might have pushed him....surely would have pushed him, thing is Timmins also scouted Fischer. Thought he was fine 20th pick. And clearly based on most lists, some thought he could have bee a late 1st rounder, McKenzie's list says that he should have probably be a high 2nd rounder.

A lot of pressure to rebuild defense at time. He liked Giroux, been discussed many times on here. Just giving credit where it is due

There's always a lot of pressure to build whatever. We haven't picked a real top C since when? We haven't picked a real power forward since when? Shayne Corson? All fine to rebuild a D....but then since I keep hearing that the draft is a crapshoot....you don't rebuild a D with players that don't make it.

 

[DAChampion]

So your point is that the list we saw for Leblanc was made with the idea that the draft was in Montréal? What if the #8 pick was not taken? How come Kreider is only in the acceptable list? How come he's 3rd in the acceptable list? That's BS.

If Timmins wanted Giroux in 2006, Timmins would have picked Giroux. A scout might have pushed him....surely would have pushed him, thing is Timmins also scouted Fischer. Thought he was fine 20th pick. And clearly based on most lists, some thought he could have bee a late 1st rounder, McKenzie's list says that he should have probably be a high 2nd rounder.

I think you understood the opposite of what I wrote, happens sometimes

 

[Whitesnake]

I think you understood the opposite of what I wrote, happens sometimes

I guess I did....by my point stays, at least for the ones whom it may concern....

 

[groovejuice]

Read on this forum:

Timmins drafted in Leblanc in 2009, because the draft was held in Montreal, he preferred Kreider.
Timmins wanted John Carlson in 2008, but the pick was traded for Tanguay.
Timmins wanted Giroux in 2006, but a scout pushed him to pick Fischer.

The only one I actually trust:
The second choice after Price in 2005 was Marc Staal.

Grant definitely shared the Giroux story, so it's safe to believe that one.

The others, could be fact, fairy tale, or a bizarre and unnatural union of both.

 

[MrNasty]

Grant definitely shared the Giroux story, so it's safe to believe that one.

The others, could be fact, fairy tale, or a bizarre and unnatural union of both.

I am sure I watched an interview years ago with Timmins and he said he had Price and another player they were trying to decide who to draft. Timmins said that Gainey decided that all things being equal, to go with the goalie.

 

[Wats]

Kings recent first rounders, in reverse chronological order:
2012 Entry 30 1 Tanner Pearson L Barrie Colts [OHL]
2011 none
2010 Entry 15 1 Derek Forbort D U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
2009 Entry 5 1 Brayden Schenn C Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL]
2008 Entry 2 1 Drew Doughty D Guelph Storm [OHL]
2007 Entry 4 1 Thomas Hickey D Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]
2006 Entry 11 1 Jonathan Bernier G Lewiston MAINEiacs [QMJHL]
2005 Entry 11 1 Anze Kopitar C Sodertalje Jrs [Sweden]
2004 Entry 11 1 Lauri Tukonen R Blues [SM-liiga]
2003 Entry 13 1 Dustin Brown R Guelph Storm [OHL]
2002 Entry 18 1 Denis Grebeshkov D Yaroslavl Lokomotiv [Russia]


Forbort, Schenn, Hickey, Bernier and Tukonen were really crucial to their two cups! Top picks win cups baby! Edmonton is doing great with all their first overalls, eh? Top picks do indeed win cups, is that you McTavish?

Schenn crucial in getting Mike Richards. Doughty is one of their MVP. Kopitar is still 11th overall.

 

[bipolarhabfan]

Read on this forum:

Timmins drafted in Leblanc in 2009, because the draft was held in Montreal, he preferred Kreider.
Timmins wanted John Carlson in 2008, but the pick was traded for Tanguay.
Timmins wanted Giroux in 2006, but a scout pushed him to pick Fischer.

The only one I actually trust:
The second choice after Price in 2005 was Marc Staal.

A great way to deflect responsibility. He is the boss in the drafting department so he is responsible for draft decisions. To put it bluntly it has not been very good in the last six to eight years. He has drafted only one impact forward in twelve years and has not done much since 2007. Tinordi, Fisher, LeBlanc, and even Beaulieu have all been disappointing first rounders.

I also see a trend on this board of over-valuing our prospects. Hudon, Andrighetto, Reway, etc. will all be great players and light up the league, which is what many say. I see more thirty point players. The only players with a chance of cracking the sixty point mark in the NHL are Sherbak and McCarron. Quite a thin list if you ask me.

 

[MrNasty]

A great way to deflect responsibility. He is the boss in the drafting department so he is responsible for draft decisions. To put it bluntly it has not been very good in the last six to eight years. He has drafted only one impact forward in twelve years and has not done much since 2007. Tinordi, Fisher, LeBlanc, and even Beaulieu have all been disappointing first rounders.

I also see a trend on this board of over-valuing our prospects. Hudon, Andrighetto, Reway, etc. will all be great players and light up the league, which is what many say. I see more thirty point players. The only players with a chance of cracking the sixty point mark in the NHL are Sherbak and McCarron. Quite a thin list if you ask me.

If you look at every teams 1st rounders over the last 6-8 years you will see the same thing and in many cases much worse. You mention Beaulieu...well go back and look at the players picked in the 1st round in 2011. Surpisingly Bealieu is one of the better ones especially considering he was drafted mid round.

I will agree with you that fans here overrate prospects but I would also argue that fans of all teams overrate their own prospects just as much. Prospects in general are grossly overrated on HFB.

 

[Nynja*]

Schenn crucial in getting Mike Richards. Doughty is one of their MVP. Kopitar is still 11th overall.

Schenn isnt part of the team though. OP's point was that "you need to tank and get top 3 picks to win the cup with", flipping Schenn for a veteran goes against his word. Same with Kopitar, 11th != top 3.

11th overall. I think you missed by a couple... ok, 10, rounds.

Post made at 6am est, I was probably in bed half asleep when I made that, you know I meant 11th overall.