ChaoticOrange
Registered User
Not shocked. Didn't really bring an element we needed as a PP specialist at this stage in his career and he moves like his skates were tied together and then coated in glue.
News and Blog Report: Training camp & Preseason News & Notes, **New Pole Added**
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McDNicks17
Moderator
I'm a huge Ryan fan, but I just don't think he's a guy that can play every night at his age.
Janmark on the 4th line would let you rotate through some combination of Pod-Ryan/Janmark-Perry/Ryan/Janmark.
I like Ryan too, but I agree with you. He's not an every day player anymore. He was virtually unplayable last playoffs.
Question for Oilers fans. How likely is it for Nuge to repeat his 100pts season while playing on McDavid's wing? My brain can't compute how he went from 104 points to 67 points last year. It seems like this mostly had to do with that incredible PP in 2022-2023, but still. You'd think he could at least do PPG next to McDavid.
What happened last year? And do you think Skinner could end up stealing his spot on the first line?
What happened last year? And do you think Skinner could end up stealing his spot on the first line?
McDNicks17
Moderator
The PP was crazy that year. Basically everyone on the unit doubled their career high in PP points.
Last year Nuge basically matched his career average in 5v5 and PP scoring. I'd expect more of the same this year.
FlameChampion
Registered User
- Jul 13, 2011
- 14,759
- 17,374
The 100 points is an outlier. I think he can be better offensively than he was last year but expecting more than 70-80 points is probably too much. He just isn’t a great 5 on 5 offensive player.
I like Ryan too but as others have said. Hes not an everyday player. Hes a useful player but losing or not playing younger players who seem to be ready seems short sighted to me …
Behind Enemy Lines
Registered User
The big outlier was Nuge's career high in goals with 37 that included 12 mid-range goals (NHL 94 percentile) on 14% shooting (NHL 74 percentile). His PP goals were outsized as well with 15. Not sustainable results.
This past season his total goals dropped to 18 while his mid-range goal scoring went down to 5 (NHL 72 percentile) on 7.9% shooting (NHL below 50 percentile). His shooting percentage went from 14% to 9.8%, the fourth lowest of his career. His PP goals dropped to 4. Another weird quirk is that Nuge's average shooting speed dropped from 41.75 MPH to 29.08 MPH this past season. Yet his playoff average shot speed jumped to 54.21 MPH. Have to wonder if he might have been banged up this past regular season with such a significant drop in average shot speed.
Nuge's strength on Line 1 is his sure handedness and defensive responsibility in support of McDavid and Hyman's net front game. Same for the PP where his role is to move the puck smartly and efficiently often as the '4th assist' with McDavid driving the play and finishing options including Draisaitl, Hyman and Bouchard.
Nugent Hopkin's value is in the substantive deep and diverse elements of his 200 foot game. His production is more closer normalized around the 60 to 80 point range. A solid smart PP1 point/flank distributor he puts the puck where it needs to go most often even when it doesn't net out in personal counting points. I'd be very surprised if they swapped Nuge out for another shot option in Skinner who is average defensively.
Nugent Hopkin's impact is often in the goal suppression work required to win games.
McShogun99
Registered User
Damn, thank you for this deeper analysis of Nugent-Hopkins's last two years. Very helpful!
StL coming in peace. Broberg hasn't stood out good or bad. He will most likely start out on the 2nd pairing with Faulk. Holloway has looked good, but he will start out playing on what the Blues hope will be a defensive shut down line centered by Faksa. Joseph will be on the other wing. Holloway has 3 goals in 2 games (one was a fluke), one was on the power play (he won't start on the first unit), the other was in OT. I've watched a lot of practices. His speed and wrister are impressive. Good on the forecheck. He has a higher floor than Broberg from what I've seen.
ConnorNova0929
Registered User
- Feb 25, 2023
- 609
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Long dragging pre season is almost over. Let's see those cuts
Friedman apparently is saying Swayman in Boston may ask for a trade after Neely threw him under the bus.
I mean I'm not saying I'd do it, but Kane (LTIR) + Skinner to Boston for Swayman has some temptation to it.
He was .933 in the playoffs last year, imagine what we could do with .920 even.
Probably for the best to keep that cap open for Bouchard's raise, but it is kinda tempting to ponder.
The other weird thing is Edmonton is actually the closest NHL city to his home town in Alaska, lol.
I mean I'm not saying I'd do it, but Kane (LTIR) + Skinner to Boston for Swayman has some temptation to it.
He was .933 in the playoffs last year, imagine what we could do with .920 even.
Probably for the best to keep that cap open for Bouchard's raise, but it is kinda tempting to ponder.
The other weird thing is Edmonton is actually the closest NHL city to his home town in Alaska, lol.
jukon
NHL Point Leader
- Mar 17, 2011
- 3,549
- 2,209
I know.... Does it mean he doesn't participate in any on ice stuff? He's just working with Oilers medical staff?
Roby Jarventie is also hurt but I don't think he's been around at all, maybe just medicals and sent home?
I wouldn't go there
With our current cap setup, skinner at 2.6 would take us further then swayman at probably 10 mil
That trade likely either means bouchard or mcdavid walks
The man's also on a very good bruins team..I'm curious the numbers ullmark will post in ottawa this year
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Burnt Biscuits
Registered User
- May 2, 2010
- 9,294
- 3,432
Going into camp I thought we had better quality on LHD, but less depth and on RHD more depth, but a lower quality, but as camp is wrapping up it feels like the LHD is superior in both quality and quantity of NHL ready bodies.
J. Brown is downright terrible hasn't really shown an aptitude for anything offensively, defensively, passing, PP, or PK, even his calling card of physicality has been underwhelming.
Carrick just seemed like he was taking too many risks without the payoff, too many gifts for the opposition to not get punished at the NHL level.
Kemp progression seems to be close to plateauing, I don't think he is NHL ready, but if he keeps his game simple might be a passable depth D come deadline.
Warner while good still seems like he's probably 1.5-2 years off being ready.
Emberson I've liked, but not to the extent that I believe he can hold down the 2nd pairing like Stauffer was pitching.
Stecher is fine on the 3rd pairing, but IMO he's not a 4/5 D like some seem to be pitching him as, on an SC contender more of a 7th d-man than a 6th.
I look at our Right side D as a top pairing stud, a 3rd pairing D, a 6/7 D, and no one who looks close to NHL ready.
I look at our LHD as a top pairing stud, a 2/3 D, a 5 D, and 2 6/7 D (assuming Dermott is signed), and Dineen is a passable #8/9D.
J. Brown is downright terrible hasn't really shown an aptitude for anything offensively, defensively, passing, PP, or PK, even his calling card of physicality has been underwhelming.
Carrick just seemed like he was taking too many risks without the payoff, too many gifts for the opposition to not get punished at the NHL level.
Kemp progression seems to be close to plateauing, I don't think he is NHL ready, but if he keeps his game simple might be a passable depth D come deadline.
Warner while good still seems like he's probably 1.5-2 years off being ready.
Emberson I've liked, but not to the extent that I believe he can hold down the 2nd pairing like Stauffer was pitching.
Stecher is fine on the 3rd pairing, but IMO he's not a 4/5 D like some seem to be pitching him as, on an SC contender more of a 7th d-man than a 6th.
I look at our Right side D as a top pairing stud, a 3rd pairing D, a 6/7 D, and no one who looks close to NHL ready.
I look at our LHD as a top pairing stud, a 2/3 D, a 5 D, and 2 6/7 D (assuming Dermott is signed), and Dineen is a passable #8/9D.
ManofSteel55
Registered User
Derek Ryan is nearly the perfect 13th forward. Like Gagner last year, it's a valuable spot for a guy like him to have.
Jimmi McJenkins
Sometimes miracles
This is exactly what I see him as, and if Philp is as ready as he looks, that makes that transition even easier for the team.
ManofSteel55
Registered User
I keep hoping to see the headline "Josh Brown on Waivers". When we signed him, I was really hoping that we had him penciled in for an AHL spot. The Broberg situation bumped a lot of guys up a spot, but I hope Brown isn't one of them.
They're announcing more cuts this morning. I assume they'll only take a couple of extra guys to the west coast, maybe a team building event on the off day or something.
What's everyone thinking?
Keep Philp, Lavoie and then all other NHL guys? Do they keep Dermott around? I don't think he's outplayed Gleason, IMO. They have to throw Brown out there until the end to really see what you have. Maybe they keep Dermott until the end with Nurse's injury.
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So Hamblin, Cagguila, Pederson, Kemp all cut today and go from there?
What's everyone thinking?
Keep Philp, Lavoie and then all other NHL guys? Do they keep Dermott around? I don't think he's outplayed Gleason, IMO. They have to throw Brown out there until the end to really see what you have. Maybe they keep Dermott until the end with Nurse's injury.
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So Hamblin, Cagguila, Pederson, Kemp all cut today and go from there?
ManofSteel55
Registered User
Going into camp, I had Hamblin as an outside shot to make the 4th line, but I would be happy with the situation put forward. Philp has outplayed him for sure.
I am hoping that we are watching the waiver wire closely. It is quite likely that there is a better defenseman than Josh Brown who will be on waivers in the next couple of days.
To me, Dermott hasn't outright outplayed all of the guys under contract, already. I'm okay with signing him to a deal, but he should be on waivers and heading to the farm right after. I dunno, maybe that means we're just better off not signing him all.
I would do that trade. Skinner won't cost 2.6M in 2 years. He's going to want 6M+ on his next deal and he's not worth that. Swayman is so much better.
Nurse is cleared to play so in my opinion you cut Gleason or Brown and release Dermott. None have outplayed Stetcher or Emberson. I’m not sure what their thoughts were for Brown but the guy can’t play so perhaps you keep Gleason around as your 7. Don’t see any need for Dermott as we have too many like him already.
Next game I’d play Philp on the 4th line between Podkolzin and Perry and Lavoie on the left with Henrique and Brown. As I’ve posted before I don’t see any point of Lavoie on the 4th line. He needs 10 mins a night minimum so see how he does on the 3rd line.
If Skinner has another invisible game vs Seattle on the 2nd line then for the last preseason game try Lavoie on the 2nd line LW for the final beer leaguer.
