News and Blog Report: Training camp & Preseason News & Notes, **New Pole Added**

[Mr Kot]

Is there a roster for todays game?

 

[CycloneSweep]

I forget. Who did he play for?

He was a bottom pairing limited use defender on a bad team and looked bad.

These are the exact analytics I'm talking about that lack any context.

Player A plays with Durzi while getting a big offensive zone push then plays with Brown with a big defensive zone push. Player A is obviously going to have better numbers with Durzi in the offensive zone, but relative stats tell you that none of that matters and it's all Brown's fault.

Relative stats are completely useless when comparing players with different usages and it's the reason why every one number model by Twitter analytics "experts" that's based entirely on those numbers are laughed at by actual analytics people.

Brown is a limited use bottom pairing defender who played against bottom competition and did bad at it.
Relative stats basically show who is doing their role well and who is not. Brown was doing bad at playing as a bottom pairing defender. That’s what it shows. He was a worse bottom pairing defender than a guy like Kesselring or Stetcher was a second pair guy. You can say I’m ignoring context but where is l it really any context that shows he isn’t a bad player outside of your feelings? I haven’t seen a single person who has actually watched him play in any real sample size not say he sucks.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Boo! oilers plus.

 

[McDNicks17]

Desharnais got exclusively tough defensive minutes and PK minutes, until he was injured in the playoffs. Before we had Desharnais on the big team, we were literally losing constantly and had no effective PK, and were about to slip out of playoff contention. Woodcroft brought him up and it stabilized our entire team defence.

He gets injured in the playoffs and loses his slot for a few games and suddenly hes chopped liver. You can’t buy what Desharnais brings Defensively with a RHD. It doesn’t exist on the market, and Josh Brown, for less than half the money, is way less than half the player. He cannot be trusted against elites - Desharnais often was in a pinch. Good luck out there with your fantasy roster mister.

P.S. this isn’t to say im rooting against Josh Brown or anything, I’m deeply invested in him playing the best hockey of his career because our season kind of depends on it at this point. When it comes to right-side defenders to put out against elites.. we have nothing much. Elite teams will take advantage of every hole. If Josh Brown can take a step forward somehow at his advanced age, it would be a miracle for us. Let’s go Josh Brown. (But as another poster pointed out he was analytically the worst d-man in the NHL so it seems kinda stupid to assume he can help- this signing is likely more like the Corey Perry signing. A warm body being paid more than league min. that ultimately costs ‘Dylan Holloway types’ Their slots- we needed to pinch every penny)

Desharnais played 4% more of his ice time vs elites than Brown did last year according to PuckIQ numbers.

Vinny is a likeable guy, but he really isn't something that's hard to replace. Most successful teams have a revolving door of #6D type guys because they're dime a dozen players.

 

[McDNicks17]

He was a bottom pairing limited use defender on a bad team and looked bad.

Brown is a limited use bottom pairing defender who played against bottom competition and did bad at it.
Relative stats basically show who is doing their role well and who is not. Brown was doing bad at playing as a bottom pairing defender. That’s what it shows. He was a worse bottom pairing defender than a guy like Kesselring or Stetcher was a second pair guy. You can say I’m ignoring context but where is l it really any context that shows he isn’t a bad player outside of your feelings? I haven’t seen a single person who has actually watched him play in any real sample size not say he sucks.

That's not what relative stats do at all.

A player in a defensive role is almost always going to have worse team metrics than guys playing in offensive situations with more talented players. One number that ignores all context of usage isn't going to tell you which player is doing a better job at their role.

 

[LTIR]

Relative Corsi -8, worst on the team
Relative Fenwick -7.1, second worse, Dermott worse
xGF Relarive -6, second worst on team, Dermott worse

This is a player while seeing the easiest minutes against the easiest comps did worse than Arizonas out of their element top4 d against much better competition.

He is a bad player, full stop.

Bad player by your standards*

Anyone who makes it to the NHL gets there for a reason. Oilers think of him as an upgrade over Desharnais and targeted him early in free agency locking him up for 3 yrs. He may not be more than a #7 at NHL level but he is far from a 'bad player' by my standards

 

[powerserge]

Boo! oilers plus.

I agree, but for preseason not really, if you only want preseason, some insights and no blackouts on trying to watch other teams streams. You can get 2 free months of Oilers + and have just tested it, just do a monthly sub, works on Apple and Android. No hassles. Use code PRESEASON24 for 2 free months. Just cancel before/afterwards.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Bad player by your standards*

Anyone who makes it to the NHL gets there for a reason. Oilers think of him as an upgrade over Desharnais and targeted him early in free agency locking him up for 3 yrs. He may not be more than a #7 at NHL level but he is far from a 'bad player' by my standards

Bad player relative to other NHL players.by that logic we can never call any player in the league bad and they are all elite.

That's not what relative stats do at all.

A player in a defensive role is almost always going to have worse team metrics than guys playing in offensive situations with more talented players. One number that ignores all context of usage isn't going to tell you which player is doing a better job at their role.

If you are giving up far more than you produce you are not doing a good job in your role. Thats a fact. Good defensive players produce little offense but give up even less. If you are giving up way more than you produce you aren’t doing a good job. Even average defensive players are looking to give up as many chances as they get while in their ice.

And yes if he was being used in a tough defensive role against top 6 guys sure. But he wasn’t.
I hope for the best for him but he is a worse player than Desharnais, is older and preferably he is a guy who is used only against weaker teams that might try and start shit. He shouldn’t be a regular.

Other then fight, what does he actually do well if you are so optimistic on him?
He is 30, doesn’t move the puck well, doesn’t defend well. Not a good penalty killer. He can punch faces I guess?

 

[FlameChampion]

I like that Knoblauch is indicating that they are focusing on putting the best team together and that fans/media shouldn’t just focus on what the lines or pairings are.

Curious if this actually happens throughout camp and how much an opportunity Lavoie, Savoie, Philp, Kemp etc actually get.

 

[McDNicks17]

Bad player relative to other NHL players.by that logic we can never call any player in the league bad and they are all elite.


If you are giving up far more than you produce you are not doing a good job in your role. Thats a fact. Good defensive players produce little offense but give up even less. If you are giving up way more than you produce you aren’t doing a good job. Even average defensive players are looking to give up as many chances as they get while in their ice.

And yes if he was being used in a tough defensive role against top 6 guys sure. But he wasn’t.
I hope for the best for him but he is a worse player than Desharnais, is older and preferably he is a guy who is used only against weaker teams that might try and start shit. He shouldn’t be a regular.

Other then fight, what does he actually do well if you are so optimistic on him?
He is 30, doesn’t move the puck well, doesn’t defend well. Not a good penalty killer. He can punch faces I guess?

Again, without context, giving up more than you produce doesn’t really mean anything. There’s plenty of coaches who still use players in roles where they’ll be lucky to break even.

Brown saw the majority of his ice time in the defensive zone with a rookie with a 30% faceoff rate and Liam O’Brien. Any numbers coming from that are going to be pretty pointless. There’s a vastly different situation on the Oilers.

 

[LTIR]

Bad player relative to other NHL players.by that logic we can never call any player in the league bad and they are all elite.

I never call one bad.. just call out poor traits of players. Desharnais is a beauty player too with some difficiencies. He would be making Zadorov money if he didn't. I am sure we added Brown for a reason and am willing to give him a chance.

Again, without context, giving up more than you produce doesn’t really mean anything. There’s plenty of coaches who still use players in roles where they’ll be lucky to break even.

Brown saw the majority of his ice time in the defensive zone with a rookie with a 30% faceoff rate and Liam O’Brien. Any numbers coming from that are going to be pretty pointless. There’s a vastly different situation on the Oilers.

Looking to see what weakness he has... decision making? Foot speed ? Will find out.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Bad player relative to other NHL players.by that logic we can never call any player in the league bad and they are all elite.


If you are giving up far more than you produce you are not doing a good job in your role. Thats a fact. Good defensive players produce little offense but give up even less. If you are giving up way more than you produce you aren’t doing a good job. Even average defensive players are looking to give up as many chances as they get while in their ice.

And yes if he was being used in a tough defensive role against top 6 guys sure. But he wasn’t.
I hope for the best for him but he is a worse player than Desharnais, is older and preferably he is a guy who is used only against weaker teams that might try and start shit. He shouldn’t be a regular.

Other then fight, what does he actually do well if you are so optimistic on him?
He is 30, doesn’t move the puck well, doesn’t defend well. Not a good penalty killer. He can punch faces I guess?

I suggest you look at other D in the NHL who start in the D zone as much as brown.

Almost all except a couple are negative in terms in analytics

It’s a pretty simple concept

 

[CycloneSweep]

I suggest you look at other D in the NHL who start in the D zone as much as brown.

Almost all except a couple are negative in terms in analytics

It’s a pretty simple concept

And he was still the worst.

Again, without context, giving up more than you produce doesn’t really mean anything. There’s plenty of coaches who still use players in roles where they’ll be lucky to break even.

Brown saw the majority of his ice time in the defensive zone with a rookie with a 30% faceoff rate and Liam O’Brien. Any numbers coming from that are going to be pretty pointless. There’s a vastly different situation on the Oilers.

An abysmal player isn’t suddenly good on a good team. He could be less bad.
If he was mid twenties like Emerson sure. Brown is already 30 he isn’t going to suddenly be a much better player.

 

[McDNicks17]

And he was still the worst.



An abysmal player isn’t suddenly good on a good team. He could be less bad.
If he was mid twenties like Emerson sure. Brown is already 30 he isn’t going to suddenly be a much better player.

He doesn’t have to be a better player.

Players look better in better situations. Happens all the time when “bad” players leave bad teams. As Oilers fans, we’re probably more familiar with that than most.

 

[Drivesaitl]

You sir are SOL! Take it to the OT thread Bub!

Sorry bro. I was having trouble letting Chicken Wings be the biggest convo on the board. heh

Hockey season can't start fast enough.

Anybody here go to fanday? I thought about it but then thought about not waking up at 7am on a Sunday.

 

[belair]

Is there a roster for todays game?

Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci
Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci
Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci
Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci

Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci
Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci
Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci

Cody Ceci

 

[CycloneSweep]

He doesn’t have to be a better player.

Players look better in better situations. Happens all the time when “bad” players leave bad teams. As Oilers fans, we’re probably more familiar with that than most.

There is a difference between bad and the worst though.
I mean we have also had lots of bad players that were, still bad elsewhere. Usually our bad guys who look better are younger players, not a 30 year old.
We will see soon. I think our team is good but depth wise Brown is 7th on a good day.
Still wild that the team that’s trying to be more analytics forward signed him to a 3 year deal but maybe they are the smartest people in the league and see something literally no one else sees.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

He only wants 10 from the Bruins. There is really bad blood there. He would take less elsewhere.

Listening to his interview he said he thinks he will be setting the marketplace for goalies and won’t take a penny less than what the market is. So it sounds like that’s what he wants to be paid no matter where he plays.

Either way December 1 comes fast so if he’s bound to his convictions he might sit out the entire year which would be hilarious.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

I agree, but for preseason not really, if you only want preseason, some insights and no blackouts on trying to watch other teams streams. You can get 2 free months of Oilers + and have just tested it, just do a monthly sub, works on Apple and Android. No hassles. Use code PRESEASON24 for 2 free months. Just cancel before/afterwards.

I just want all the games in one place. I'm not subscribing to multiple things to watch a few crappy preseason games.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Sorry bro. I was having trouble letting Chicken Wings be the biggest convo on the board. heh

Hockey season can't start fast enough.

Anybody here go to fanday? I thought about it but then thought about not waking up at 7am on a Sunday.

Chicken wings have their own thread though.

 

[McDNicks17]

There is a difference between bad and the worst though.
I mean we have also had lots of bad players that were, still bad elsewhere. Usually our bad guys who look better are younger players, not a 30 year old.
We will see soon. I think our team is good but depth wise Brown is 7th on a good day.
Still wild that the team that’s trying to be more analytics forward signed him to a 3 year deal but maybe they are the smartest people in the league and see something literally no one else sees.

Like I’ve been saying, that “worst” title is based on a flawed understanding of analytics.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Does anyone know if you have to watch the preseason game "live" on Oilers+, or do they keep the full preseason games on demand to watch later?

Winnipeg doesn't have an airport but they have the game on..

Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci
Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci
Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci
Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci

Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci
Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci
Cody Ceci - Cody Ceci

Cody Ceci

The names Connor, Brown, Skinner now comprise half the team. Myself and Michaels will have to get used to that.

 

[powerserge]

I just want all the games in one place. I'm not subscribing to multiple things to watch a few crappy preseason games.

Then don't. Hockey is back and want to see guys like Philp, Wanner, etc gain some experience. All the preseason games seem to be all over the place and with blackouts depending on your location. A free 2 month trial solves the issue of dealing with hassles for those that want to watch it.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

And he was still the worst.



An abysmal player isn’t suddenly good on a good team. He could be less bad.
If he was mid twenties like Emerson sure. Brown is already 30 he isn’t going to suddenly be a much better player.

I think defensive defensemen are a player type that is often misrepresented through secondary analytics work (one of my personal pet peeves). There needs to be a deeper dive to look into context of their usage, deployment, individual results in context of team results. Brown's ideally placed to be a veteran 3RD/7TH deployment and frankly with the security of a x3 contract an easy waiver guy who can shuttle between NHL and AHL. Brown is regarded as well for strong intangibles as a high character teammate and leader at lower levels. Physical game and some fighting willingness is a decent value-add for this team.

About his last season in AZ, he was a +3 within a team with a -20 goalshare. His NHL Edge numbers show a significant defensive zone start well above league average (like 5%). NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Skaters

Knoblauch has shown quickly to be a strong coach able to make strategic and in-game deployment decisions by instinct and information based. Brown's a low risk end of roster player with a specific tool kit that can help this team with a big, physical hard game.

 

[Gordy Elbows]

Josh Brown isn’t expected to provide us above-par defending. He only needs to provide the basic minimum while doing his 5 or 6 minutes in the games he plays.
What we really want from him is his presence (a word,glare or push as needed) when somebody is considering taking liberties with our players.
A few games like that sends a message….don’t need a full season of that.