Value of: Trading up for Sam Dickinson

[Heldig]

What would be the cost from NJD to move up to select Sam Dickinson at each of the following spots?

5th:
6th:
7th:
8th:
9th:

Kind of think the devils are doing all right already with top, young defensemen (Hughes, Nemec)

 

[dgibb10]

Kind of think the devils are doing all right already with top, young defensemen (Hughes, Nemec)

ANOTHER!! (also don't forget Casey).

Imo you can never have too many dman. Even the 3rd pairing dmen play like 18 minutes a night, similar to top 6 forwards. You can't hide bad ones. I want my dcore to run 6 deep with 6 quality dman, with guys to fill every possible role

 

[bud12]

He did play 3C on occasion. He was moved throughout the lineup because he's incredibly versatile.

Mercer isn't soft as butter, primarily a playmaker, doesn't float, is extremely engaged even when he isn't good defensively, has a way better shot and more of a motor than Schmaltz does, is way better on faceoffs, and while he isn't perfect is still much better defensively. More importantly he's also like a billion years younger than Schmaltz and would actually fit into our core a lot better. He's also really good on the cycle and would stand up and provide much needed grit to our team, which is something we sorely lack. A cycling, bruising, net front, shoot first score first goalscoring, decent to good face off guy is EXACTLY what we want in our ideal #1C. Whether we keep Schmaltz or not, Maccelli - Mercer - Keller would also be an amazing top line and still have him fit like a glove. He's also an RFA still so cost controlled which would be fantastic.

If you want Mercer as your #1C, your team will be ahl caliber. You seem to overrate alot of his quality. He's not a good playmaker, he's not good on face off and he 's not physical. Hell he's probably not even a C

 

[Heldig]

ANOTHER!! (also don't forget Casey).

Imo you can never have too many dman. Even the 3rd pairing dmen play like 18 minutes a night, similar to top 6 forwards. You can't hide bad ones. I want my dcore to run 6 deep with 6 quality dman, with guys to fill every possible role

Doesn't every team want That?

 

[dgibb10]

Doesn't every team want That?

Yeah but only a few teams can actually build it.

NJD was 1 year away from being able to build it, but the contracts ran out on severson and graves just before Hughes was ready.

Carolina has at times had it.

I think this gives us a very great opportunity to build it, insulate our goalie and make our forwards lives easier

 

[Xirik]

Yeah but only a few teams can actually build it.

NJD was 1 year away from being able to build it, but the contracts ran out on severson and graves just before Hughes was ready.

Carolina has at times had it.

I think this gives us a very great opportunity to build it, insulate our goalie and make our forwards lives easier

Didn't Nashville build that in the 2010's and couldn't buy a goal?

 

[dgibb10]

Didn't Nashville build that in the 2010's and couldn't score a goal?

Nashville didn't have Jack Hughes.

 

[Xirik]

Nashville didn't have Jack Hughes.

I guess it would work until said defense would need to get paid.

 

[dgibb10]

I guess it would work until said defense would need to get paid.

That's a problem with any team. If you draft too many good players you will run into cap problems. Get Luke locked in early, and take advantage of RFA control the fact that NHL dmen contracts are at this point still 75% negotiated based on points for some reason, and Nemec, Dickinson, Casey won't be getting the PP time to rack up said points.

 

[dgibb10]

I guess it would work until said defense would need to get paid.

Also to go further into it.

Hughes, Mercer, Hischier, Bratt, meier, Holtz is an excellent top 6. Even if you don't believe in Holtz, that top 6 rental winger 6th best forward is the easiest hole to fill (see, Toffoli, Mantha, Tarasenko this deadline).

So from there you're focusing on the bottom 6, which should be done through smart FA, minor trades, and good depth drafting and developing.

And then defense.

a 19-20 minute defender is going to provide you a lot more than a 13-14 minute bottom 6 forward imo.

And then goalies are a crapshoot

 

[Dead Coyote]

If you want Mercer as your #1C, your team will be ahl caliber. You seem to overrate alot of his quality. He's not a good playmaker, he's not good on face off and he 's not physical. Hell he's probably not even a C

I want him as my 1C until Cooley steps up. Say what you want about Mercer but he's a competent player and would be a competent center and by far Utah's best center. Yes, they have an AHL level team, or however you want to describe it. Fact remains that Mercer would still be by far the best C. He's also 22 and had 60ish points. The potential of a top 10 pick is great, but the potential of a guy who put up 50+ points as a 22yo playing limited minutes and opportunity is also great. I'd be ecstatic if I got a guy like Mercer in the top 10 who was doing that in the NHL at 22 and was a productive NHL player at 20.

Cooley - Mercer - Bjugstad - McBain/Kerfoot is also a perfectly fine center line up IF Cooley hits his ceiling and is a similar player as Keller is now. Yes plenty of teams would have a better line up in the top 6, but as we've seen in Toronto, Edmonton, Pittsburgh etc you need to have more than that. Mercer is a guy who can do everything. At worst he plays the role of a Couturier if Utah get another center who is a better top 6 fit. But they don't have anyone in the org or system who projects as that.

 

[HuGort]

What would be the cost from NJD to move up to select Sam Dickinson at each of the following spots?

5th:
6th:
7th:
8th:
9th:

Montreal likely staying put. As good chance one of Demidov, Lindstrom or Ignila will be there at 5

 

[rt]

I think I'd do this if I were Utah. Mercer would their #1C and outside Celebrini there are no real promising #1C prospects outside of maybe Lindstrom, but I think Mercer is just a better Lindstrom already.

A lot of people will quote that Utah needs dmen, but what they need is a #1 d-man, not anything less. Moser and Durzi are both very solid #2D and Valimaki is a decent top 4 defender. Simashev could be a #1D but projects as more of a Hjalmarsson type which is also something they need anyways. Lamoreaux before he was injured looked like he could reach #1D peak.

They do however badly need a #1C until Cooley is ready at the least, and he may not even project at C long term. They also just need better centers in general because no one should have Boyd as their #1C, ever, and Bjugstad should be in the bottom 6. Guenther could project as a C but it's way more likely that he and But are wingers.

Are you suggesting that Utah should trade the 6th overall pick for Dawson Mercer?

 

[wetcoast]

Not really. Arizona tried Schmaltz at center a bunch and while I think he isn't that bad he's more of a 2C at best, and is much better as a winger than a C in the first place. His faceoff skills aren't great and he doesn't play responsibly and is somewhat of a floater. They've ran Boyd, Hayton, Cooley, Kerfoot, Bjugstad and McBain on the top line at varying points this season. Hayton stunk up the start of the year but has always been our #1C otherwise. Injury caused Bjugstad to step in, and then he got injured and Kerfoot stepped in. Those are the 3 main guys at #1C this year and only Kerfoot was particularly successful with them. Bjugstad just doesn't have much left in him and Kerfoot is great but doesn't mesh very well as their center either. Neither are anywhere close to 1C category. I have no doubt Cooley will eventually grow into the #1C they're looking for but I would much rather he be sheltered and spread out with Doan and Guenther for now until they all take a few more steps, and we need a competent scoring 2C anyways.

If Catton falls past 5 and he shouldn't IMO then I wonder if Utah takes him or the best Dman that's there?

Are you suggesting that Utah should trade the 6th overall pick for Dawson Mercer?

It seemed like it and while I like Mercer the 6th pick this year is more valuable IMO.

But if ownership is more in a win now frame of mind who knows.

 

[rt]

If Catton falls past 5 and he shouldn't IMO then I wonder if Utah takes him or the best Dman that's there?


It seemed like it and while I like Mercer the 6th pick this year is more valuable IMO.

But if ownership is more in a win now frame of mind who knows.

They’re not going to trade the first pick in franchise history and also get ripped off in the same transaction.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

I'd do 5 + 27 + Barron/Harris for 10 + Mercer

 

[JRichard]

If he does I'd be a very happy man.

However NHL teams have much better ideas of who teams will pick than idea. So if for example NJD has a good idea that Seattle wants Dickinson at 8, you look into moving up to 7 or 6 to take him.

I dont believe teams know who the other teams will pick. Yes GM are quoted as saying stuff but why would they announce their selection to the world ahead of time unless they pick 1st? Its gamesmanship.

There will be a top d at 8. And a top forward.

 

[Xoggz22]

There is a very good chance the Dickinson will be there at #10 so there is very little need to move asset if that's who they really want.

 

[dgibb10]

I dont believe teams know who the other teams will pick. Yes GM are quoted as saying stuff but why would they announce their selection to the world ahead of time unless they pick 1st? Its gamesmanship.

There will be a top d at 8. And a top forward.

NHL GMs talk. A lot. NJD front office likely has a MUCH better idea of who each teams wants than those teams fans, or any fans do.

If Catton falls past 5 and he shouldn't IMO then I wonder if Utah takes him or the best Dman that's there?


It seemed like it and while I like Mercer the 6th pick this year is more valuable IMO.

But if ownership is more in a win now frame of mind who knows.

Yeah I agree 6th is more valuable than Mercer. I'd be willing to add sweeteners to get it done imo, as I have mercer valued at about the 8th/9th overall pick

 

[dgibb10]

There is a very good chance the Dickinson will be there at #10 so there is very little need to move asset if that's who they really want.

I doubt he will be. I'd be especially worried about seattle or calgary taking him. I think 7 would be the sweet spot to get to

 

[wetcoast]

They’re not going to trade the first pick in franchise history and also get ripped off in the same transaction.

I doubt that they trade the pick but it all depends on how aggressive and win right now ownership is and that's an unknown factor.

 

[Steve Shutt]

Would NJD consider moving Simon Nemec to move up? I would assume no

 

[rt]

I doubt that they trade the pick but it all depends on how aggressive and win right now ownership is and that's an unknown factor.

It’s not an unknown factor. They’re not going to trade 6th overall for Dawson Mercer.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I could see Minnesota trying to trade up for Dickinson as well.

 

[majormajor]

Mercer for Dickinson seems fair to me, and unusually it's not a case of "win now versus futures".

Sam Dickinson could play decent minutes in the NHL right now. He'd be one of the best skaters on any team. You could also debate whether more seasoning would help his offense develop, but the point is that the wait won't be long.

Dawson Mercer has that sneaky underrated skillset and does a lot of hard things well. And did he have 10 goals in 10 games at one point? He's coming off of a bad year. I'm not sure if he'll be good next year but long term he has very clear top six forward upside with playdriving ability.

I think the upside is comparable for the two players, and maybe the wait too.

So Utah isn't selling its future to hurry up if they acquire Mercer, and NJ isn't pushing its future forward if they acquire Dickinson.

That's just a comment on the wait vs win now factors, I could just as easily argue that Utah should keep the pick or that New Jersey should keep Mercer.