GDT: Trades & Free Agency

[ToneDog]

That's the likely path.

Agreed but it is also the wrong path which only an incompetent management staff would take.

 

[aingefan]

If he refuses a trade, yeah. You can't sign a guy just because you don't want to lose him for nothing. In the cap world, open cap space is valuable, so you ALWAYS get something back.

Open hypothetical question: say Tavares and Marner are asked to waive, but refuse. How does that effect their future bargaining?
I can’t think or recall any precedents?
And or the original point, agreed - cap space is an asset in and of itself. But folks have to remember, one contract doesn’t exist in a vacuum - it’s a fluid team roster matter. When JT and MM expire, all of Pontus, Knies, McCabe and Woll are up for renewal too.

 

[Legion34]

Marners most likely scenario is that he re signs here. If he is “smart” he finds a happy medium salary of 11.5 ish. He won’t take less than Willy.

But the kid really seems to hate the media. And things seem to really have weighed on him this year. He seems almost paranoid thinking Everyone is out to get him when they aren’t. Never mind the pile on if they lose.

I could honestly see him asking out for sure. Not the most likely but not impossible.
IF that happens and he wants out. And the leafs paid the SB he could bet traded on July 2 with retention through.a 3rd party. Then he could go anywhere.

I think LA. Seattle. NJD NYI would be likelyscebarjosb in that case

 

[Malachi Crunch]

There’s two sides to that coin, every year he stays he gets more disliked in his hometown and the more the media puts pressure on him and his family. Throw in a 12+ mil contract onto that fire and it could get ugly fast for him. The alternative of making more money after taxes somewhere with better winters and more freedom when he comes home for the summer starts looking better and better.

.....and he's young. Great time to move somewhere else for 7-8 years. He can return and live the rest of his life in Toronto in the future.

 

[aingefan]

Marners most likely scenario is that he re signs here. If he is “smart” he finds a happy medium salary of 11.5 ish. He won’t take less than Willy.

But the kid really seems to hate the media. And things seem to really have weighed on him this year. He seems almost paranoid thinking Everyone is out to get him when they aren’t. Never mind the pile on if they lose.

I could honestly see him asking out for sure. Not the most likely but not impossible.
IF that happens and he wants out. And the leafs paid the SB he could bet traded on July 2 with retention through.a 3rd party. Then he could go anywhere.

I think LA. Seattle. NJD NYI would be likelyscebarjosb in that case

If he really wants everyone off his backAND really wants to stay here, he could sign at a legit discount and always have that card.
No reason to think he would, pecking order, his history, the player union pressure, no real precedent.
I can certainly see him having less pressure in a different market.

 

[ToneDog]

Marners most likely scenario is that he re signs here. If he is “smart” he finds a happy medium salary of 11.5 ish. He won’t take less than Willy.

But the kid really seems to hate the media. And things seem to really have weighed on him this year. He seems almost paranoid thinking Everyone is out to get him when they aren’t. Never mind the pile on if they lose.

I could honestly see him asking out for sure. Not the most likely but not impossible.
IF that happens and he wants out. And the leafs paid the SB he could bet traded on July 2 with retention through.a 3rd party. Then he could go anywhere.

I think LA. Seattle. NJD NYI would be likelyscebarjosb in that case

After his bonus is paid on July 1st, he is owed 775K in real dollar. Leafs could retain 50% to get a better return. I would add Dallas, SLC, Anaheim, and SJ to the list.

 

[TheShape]

I keep reading “team friendly deal “when it comes to Marner and I would like someone to define what this is exactly. Because I have a hard time finding the right number for this guy considering the version we see of this player in the playoffs year after year.

We simply can’t carry this big of a cap hit going forward for a player who might figure it out one day. Marner will thrive elsewhere in a no pressure market, which is fine, but he’s not going to be that player here.

 

[aingefan]

After his bonus is paid on July 1st, he is owed 775K in real dollar. Leafs could retain 50% to get a better return. I would add Dallas, SLC, Anaheim, and SJ to the list.

And in that case, maybe teams are willing to pay him the 11-12 he’s gonna want, seeing how they get one year almost for free. His extension of say 8/92 11.5AAV becomes 9/<93, or 10.3 AAV in actual dollars.

 

[Commander Clueless]

I just don't see how we extend Marner, barring significant playoff success this year.

I'm not ragging on the guy. Great player, granted one that struggles in the playoffs.

But we've tried this time and time again. This top heavy formula isn't working.

Matthews and Nylander are locked up. JT and Marner money needs to be spread out for a more well rounded team doesn't it?

I just don't see how we keep repeating this without success. The sample size isn't small anymore.

 

[-DeMo-]

I think 90% of the time and in this situation would be correct the team acquiring Marner would be the team who would need to convince Marner to waive not the Leafs. and I think that's true most of the time the acquiring team convinces a player to waive.

After his bonus is paid on July 1st, he is owed 775K in real dollar. Leafs could retain 50% to get a better return. I would add Dallas, SLC, Anaheim, and SJ to the list.

why would we want 5.45 million in dead cap space next season? I doubt the difference in the return would justify it.

 

[Legion34]

I think 90% of the time and in this situation would be correct the team acquiring Marner would be the team who would need to convince Marner to waive not the Leafs. and I think that's true most of the time the acquiring team convinces a player to waive.


why would we want 5.45 million in dead cap space next season? I doubt the difference in the return would justify it.

The play would be to get a team that is a floor team to facilitate.

It would be 300k in salary for 5 million ish in cap. That shouldn’t cost too much.

It’s not like Marleau where they had 4 million in actual salary to pay

 

[ToneDog]

I just don't see how we extend Marner, barring significant playoff success this year.

I'm not ragging on the guy. Great player, granted one that struggles in the playoffs.

But we've tried this time and time again. This top heavy formula isn't working.

Matthews and Nylander are locked up. JT and Marner money needs to be spread out for a more well rounded team doesn't it?

I just don't see how we keep repeating this without success. The sample size isn't small anymore.

Seeing the impact of Bert and Domi in 3 playoff game should tell you we should use the money elsewhere.

I think 90% of the time and in this situation would be correct the team acquiring Marner would be the team who would need to convince Marner to waive not the Leafs. and I think that's true most of the time the acquiring team convinces a player to waive.


why would we want 5.45 million in dead cap space next season? I doubt the difference in the return would justify it.

Who said dead cap space? It guarantees you can resign Bert or another forward or dman or goalie.

 

[ER89]

We need to check in on sorokin l.

If there's even the slightest if possibilities he wants out we gotta be all over that

 

[Kurtz]

We need to check in on sorokin l.

If there's even the slightest if possibilities he wants out we gotta be all over that

It's interesting that they started Varlamov over him in the first 2 games. And then he got pulled in game 3.

 

[SprDaVE]

I still think Woll will get there. He's got all the tools and sometimes a goaltender just needs a little time. He hasn't had a sub .900% save percentage since 2020. I wouldn't rush to blow big times assets on a goaltender quite yet. I'd position him to get minimum 40 starts next season, assuming he can stay healthy which is big far the biggest worry with him.

There are some pretty interesting options in free agency that won't cost a lot either. Driedger for me is just poised to be that "where did he come from?" goaltender, there's also Stolarz, Kahkonen, Brossoit and obviously Samsonov isn't out of the question either.

I'd also want Hildeby to be the 3rd stringer to probably get in a few NHL games and see how he does.

 

[Dreakmur]

Open hypothetical question: say Tavares and Marner are asked to waive, but refuse. How does that effect their future bargaining?
I can’t think or recall any precedents?
And or the original point, agreed - cap space is an asset in and of itself. But folks have to remember, one contract doesn’t exist in a vacuum - it’s a fluid team roster matter. When JT and MM expire, all of Pontus, Knies, McCabe and Woll are up for renewal too.

Holmberg shouldn't get much. McCabe is a #5, so he signs cheap or you let him walk. Knies and Woll depend a lot on how well they play.

All those things happen regardless of Tavares/Marner.

 

[-DeMo-]

After his bonus is paid on July 1st, he is owed 775K in real dollar. Leafs could retain 50% to get a better return. I would add Dallas, SLC, Anaheim, and SJ to the list.

Who said dead cap space? It guarantees you can resign Bert or another forward or dman or goalie.

you?

you said leafs could retain 50% on Marner to get a better return that would leave 5 million in dead cap space. since we would be retaining 50% of Marners cap.

 

[Kurtz]

I still think Woll will get there. He's got all the tools and sometimes a goaltender just needs a little time. He hasn't had a sub .900% save percentage since 2020. I wouldn't rush to blow big times assets on a goaltender quite yet. I'd position him to get minimum 40 starts next season, assuming he can stay healthy which is big far the biggest worry with him.

There are some pretty interesting options in free agency that won't cost a lot either. Driedger for me is just poised to be that "where did he come from?" goaltender, there's also Stolarz, Kahkonen, Brossoit and obviously Samsonov isn't out of the question either.

I'd also want Hildeby to be the 3rd stringer to probably get in a few NHL games and see how he does.

I see no sense in taking that risk. It reminds me of Keefe - we assemble a championship level roster and then keep letting an AHL coach run it year after year. Makes no sense.

Woll is a cheap backup with upside, that's good enough. Maybe he can stay healthy, get better and be our starter in a few years. But for now imo we need to get a good, proven goalie. Markstrom, Saros, etc.

 

[SprDaVE]

I see no sense in taking that risk. It reminds me of Keefe - we assemble a championship level roster and then keep letting an AHL coach run it year after year. Makes no sense.

Woll is a cheap backup with upside, that's good enough. Maybe he can stay healthy, get better and be our starter in a few years. But for now imo we need to get a good, proven goalie. Markstrom, Saros, etc.

That's how you get a good young long-term goaltender though. Not every one of them comes in and dominates with 40+ starts. If we get a goaltender and block Wolls playing time, we'll have a hard time fitting him in probably. Thankfully he's a RFA so finding a 1-3 year goaltender wouldn't be a bad idea.

The price to get a Saros is reportedly enormous, and there's no way they trade him now that they probably want to keep improving into the playoffs for next season.

Markstrom makes some form of sense. Treliving signed him, he's done well in spurts... but he has struggled last 2 years, and it wasn't much better in the playoffs for Calgary. He's 34 years old and will make 6M until 2026. Again, what's the price we have to pay to get him? A 1st round pick? Which is apparently what the Devils were willing to pay, among other assets.

Maybe John Gibson is finally released from that awful Anaheim team? His stats are putrid over the last 5 years and he's making 6.4M until 2027. That could be a very interesting gamble if the price is a lot cheaper than it was a couple years ago.

Another option might be Jordan Binnington. He's a big time headcase but he's solid with a cup ring.

 

[Gabriel426]

That's how you get a good young long-term goaltender though. Not every one of them comes in and dominates with 40+ starts. If we get a goaltender and block Wolls playing time, we'll have a hard time fitting him in probably. Thankfully he's a RFA so finding a 1-3 year goaltender wouldn't be a bad idea.

The price to get a Saros is reportedly enormous, and there's no way they trade him now that they probably want to keep improving into the playoffs for next season.

Markstrom makes some form of sense. Treliving signed him, he's done well in spurts... but he has struggled last 2 years, and it wasn't much better in the playoffs for Calgary. He's 34 years old and will make 6M until 2026. Again, what's the price we have to pay to get him? A 1st round pick? Which is apparently what the Devils were willing to pay, among other assets.

Maybe John Gibson is finally released from that awful Anaheim team? His stats are putrid over the last 5 years and he's making 6.4M until 2027. That could be a very interesting gamble if the price is a lot cheaper than it was a couple years ago.

Another option might be Jordan Binnington. He's a big time headcase but he's solid with a cup ring.

Not saying I disagree with you with Markstorm bc he struggled since he got to the Flames.
But our current goalie coach used to work with Markstorm back in Vancouver and if the coach remains, there might be something there to explore.

 

[SprDaVE]

Not saying I disagree with you with Markstorm bc he struggled since he got to the Flames.
But our current goalie coach used to work with Markstorm back in Vancouver and if the coach remains, there might be something there to explore.

He's been good more than not the last 5 years, and the Flames have been a bad team since the Gaudreau and Tkachuk fiasco and even despite that, his GAA is very good. He's probably the one goaltender that makes a lot of sense based on his term and abilities, as well as the point you mentioned.

I do worry about the price to acquire and his age/regression. NJD might circle back to try and get him, and the Flames seem reluctant to part with him.

 

[Fogelhund]

I'm not quite ready to bury this season, there still is some hope.... isn't there? Hmm

But, I do have a working offseason roster in CapFriendly. I need a goalie to go with Woll, and I have a 22 man roster, with $10.45 million left to spend. I have an upgraded 3C, but no real 4C of note at the moment. I'd love to pick up Jack McBain for that spot, and despite having a surplus of LW's, I can't come to terms with moving any of Robertson, Knies, Cowan for him... and McMann + Holmberg doesn't get that deal done IMO. If somehow we managed to move McMann and Holmberg for McBain, I probably need a 3RW (and have $10.8 mil to spend), unless we think Grebyonkin can step into that spot.

 

[SprDaVE]

I'm not quite ready to bury this season, there still is some hope.... isn't there? Hmm

But, I do have a working offseason roster in CapFriendly. I need a goalie to go with Woll, and I have a 22 man roster, with $10.45 million left to spend. I have an upgraded 3C, but no real 4C of note at the moment. I'd love to pick up Jack McBain for that spot, and despite having a surplus of LW's, I can't come to terms with moving any of Robertson, Knies, Cowan for him... and McMann + Holmberg doesn't get that deal done IMO. If somehow we managed to move McMann and Holmberg for McBain, I probably need a 3RW (and have $10.8 mil to spend), unless we think Grebyonkin can step into that spot.

One thing I'm sure, regardless of what happens -- I am very done with Samsonov. Only way he changes my mind is if he goes on a shutout streak of some kind and just dominates for at least 2 straight rounds. Minimum.

 

[ToneDog]

you?

you said leafs could retain 50% on Marner to get a better return that would leave 5 million in dead cap space. since we would be retaining 50% of Marners cap.

Ah yes, you are right that would be dead cap space. I prefer that and getting a better return for Marner than overpaying him and hoping he figures it out. The way I see it, unless Tre pulls a rabbit out of his ass, odds are we are not winning anything next year so might as well use next year to reload for 2026 when JT's money comes off the books. I'd retain more if I could get a bluechip prospect or two back.

 

[Fogelhund]

One thing I'm sure, regardless of what happens -- I am very done with Samsonov. Only way he changes my mind is if he goes on a shutout streak of some kind and just dominates for at least 2 straight rounds. Minimum.

When I first starting building this offseason roster a month and a half ago... I had Sammy in the lineup. He'd had a nice streak going in the regular season, had played well and we were winning.... and now, well it's not completely his fault, but we can't really depend on him to be stealing games either... it's time for someone new.

Ah yes, you are right that would be dead cap space. I prefer that and getting a better return for Marner than overpaying him and hoping he figures it out. The way I see it, unless Tre pulls a rabbit out of his ass, odds are we are not winning anything next year so might as well use next year to reload for 2026 when JT's money comes off the books. I'd retain more if I could get a bluechip prospect or two back.

I moved him in a relatively soft deal on CapFriendly, to a team who very much needs a 1RW, and received a good prospect for a position of need, and a RD with one year term left. Some people here would hate the deal, but it gives cap flexibility, and builds a more solid foundation... I'm not rolling this out, until we are eliminated.