GDT: Trades & Free Agency

[SprDaVE]

Don't waste any asset unless it's mobile D coming back. What a travesty on the backend for puck movement. You can get crushing dmen anytime you need them but you cant always find mobile d. just keep stockpiling assets until someone comes to pay for

Klingberg was a risk and it completely failed, but the idea was there. He was not nearly aggressive enough to tweak the roster further, especially defensively. His first 2 signings were Reaves and Klingberg, which is pretty mind blowing. Reaves turned into a usable player for half the season but like... it wasn't really much of a priority. Bertuzzi was solid for half the season, the other half almost unplayable. Domi and Benoit were 2 good signings (Benoit was on waivers).

I'll give him a slight pass that he was just hired and had to take more time to adjust, look into his org depth, etc. It was the worst regular season team we've had since the Babcock days (IIRC), which would be fine if it translated to playoff wins... but it didn't. There won't be many excuses this off-season.

I'll agree that this team needs more ability from the backend. I can appreciate big tough guys but holy shit, get some skating, shooting, passing, etc. We really didn't need Edmundson after acquiring Lyubushkin.

 

[613Leafer]

Brandt Clarke would be a wonderful addition... but LA really doesn't have the cap room to do such a deal, without sending cap back. They'd probably want to send PLD along with Clarke, which is a deal killer IMO.

I think getting a top top young NHL ready prospect on an ELC with #1D potential is just generally wishful thinking. Marner's NMC limiting destinations, his playoff reputation, his contract expectations, his upcoming UFA status, etc will all dampen his value.

More realistic is hoping for something like the PLD trade (or the Karlsson from Ottawa to SJ trade, though granted they got lucky with how that 1st rounder turned out) - multiple quality, but non-elite pieces (hopefully a #2C or #2-3 dman) where you're simply banking on using the capspace, depth, change in culture/dressing room, etc to make a difference.

I don't think we can bring back the same group, especially with their increased caphits taking up even more room.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

I think getting a top top young NHL ready prospect on an ELC with #1D potential is just generally wishful thinking. Marner's NMC limiting destinations, his playoff reputation, his contract expectations, his upcoming UFA status, etc will all dampen his value.

More realistic is hoping for something like the PLD trade (or the Karlsson from Ottawa to SJ trade, though granted they got lucky with how that 1st rounder turned out) - multiple quality, but non-elite pieces (hopefully a #2C or #2-3 dman) where you're simply banking on using the capspace, depth, change in culture/dressing room, etc to make a difference.

I don't think we can bring back the same group, especially with their increased caphits taking up even more room.

Given the all the complicating factors I'd be thrilled to get either of those packages in return. I'm expecting to lose him for nothing, but that is better than re-signing him to a brutal deal.

We need to move on and we need as much flexibility as possible. Losing a deal on value isn't preferable but it's the reality given the circumstances.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Don't waste any asset unless it's mobile D coming back. What a travesty on the backend for puck movement. You can get crushing dmen anytime you need them but you cant always find mobile d. just keep stockpiling assets until someone comes to pay for

it’s always one or the other

Puck moving D vs physical stay at home defender

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Any kind of change that gets us draft picks, younger, balanced, cheaper is welcome

 

[613Leafer]

it’s always one or the other

Puck moving D vs physical stay at home defender

Yea, what our blueline really needs is a guy who can do both - obviously an elite #1 dman would be great, but taking it a notch lower, getting the equivalent to a young Muzzin, Ekholm, Seabrook, McDonagh, etc would be a great fit.

Someone who will protect the front of the net, battle in the corners, play the top PK, etc, but who can also make a pass and move the puck.

 

[weems]

Brodie falling off a cliff and Liljegren not taking a step forward badly hurt our defence.
We simply didn't have the talent level or depth for those guys to underperform.

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

I think people are going to be surprised when this team doesn't do too much this offseason to shake up the core.

34 and 88 aren't going anywhere

91 isn't going to waive and it doesn't make sense to give up assets to dump him when hes likely coming back on a cheaper contract after next season anyway.

The only question is if 16 wants to leave or not. If he doesn't, hes likely staying.

They will change the coach and coast one season with eyes to 2025-2026 when 91's contract is up and he's re-signed to a much, much more affordable deal. Cap increases and that discount giving them the money they need to spend to augment to roster with more talent, across the board (including getting a long-term 2C fit, allowing JT to be either a winger or strong 3C).

That option - isn't the worst thing. Coupled in with the challenges of creating a trade for Marner, if he even allows for it to happen, makes me think people will be disappointed with the level of change likely to come.

**Assuming they do not come back.

 

[Avilaj07]

To Toronto-
Pierre Luc Dubois
Trevor Moore
Brandt Clarke

To Kings-
Mitch Marner
Timothy Liljegren
Nick Robertson

Resign Domi 5 yrs x 3.5 million
Sign Matt Roy- 5 yrs x 5 million
Sign Brady Skjei- 6 yrs x 6 million

Moore-Matthews-Domi
Knies-Dubois-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Jarnkrok
Grebyonkin-Holmberg-Dewar

Rielly-Roy
Skjei-Clarke
Benoit-McCabe

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

To Toronto-
Pierre Luc Dubois
Trevor Moore
Brandt Clarke

To Kings-
Mitch Marner
Timothy Liljegren
Nick Robertson

Resign Domi 5 yrs x 3.5 million
Sign Matt Roy- 5 yrs x 5 million
Sign Brady Skjei- 6 yrs x 6 million

Moore-Matthews-Domi
Knies-Dubois-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Jarnkrok
Grebyonkin-Holmberg-Dewar

Rielly-Roy
Skjei-Clarke
Benoit-McCabe

Oh dude there's no way we can do another dramatic forward whose overpaid for long term

 

[4thline]

Knies-Matthews-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-xxx
xxx-xxx-Jarncrok
Dewar*-Kampf-Reaves
Holmberg

Rielly-xxx
McCabe-xxx
Benoit-Liljegren**
Timmins

xxx
Woll

* 1.15 x 2
**1.35x2

27.6million to sign / return in Marner+Robertson trade:
1x each top 6 level LW,C,RW
2x top 4 RD
1x Tandem starter or better

6 spots, average of 4.6m per.

 

[SprDaVE]

Knies-Matthews-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-xxx
xxx-xxx-Jarncrok
Dewar*-Kampf-Reaves
Holmberg

Rielly-xxx
McCabe-xxx
Benoit-Liljegren**
Timmins

xxx
Woll

* 1.15 x 2
**1.35x2

27.6million to sign / return in Marner+Robertson trade:
1x each top 6 level LW,C,RW
2x top 4 RD
1x Tandem starter or better

6 spots, average of 4.6m per.

It would depend entirely what they are traded for. I still don't see Marner traded either, but for this exercise it's fun to speculate.

Re-sign Lyubushkin to a 2 or 3 year deal around 1.5 to 2M. I think he's a good soldier and seems to do well here. If Liljegren stays, I assume a 2-3 year deal around 2.5-3M or so might be feasible, although I think he's done here. Re-sign Domi to a 3-4 year deal around what he's making now. I'd flip Kampf for any pick that I can. If someone gives me a 2nd round pick for Jarnkrok, I trade him too.

I'd target, depending on the returns of the above, Montour for D who I think is my #1 target right now barring he's not asking for the world. I also think Treliving will go hard after Tanev, especially if Liljegren is gone. Driedger or Stolarz for goaltenders. Wennberg for a center, Boyd and Joshua would be good targets as well and they can play wing. Marchessault for a very good Marner replacement. Duclair or Foegele for LW.

Also, any interest in a 1 year 800k deal for Klingberg?

 

[djdev]

keller and durzi for marner base is something i could talk myself into

 

[Dreakmur]

keller and durzi for marner base is something i could talk myself into

I wouldn't even need a plus if they'd give up Keller for Marner. He doesn't play the same defense, but we'd get similar offensive production for just 7 million.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I want to see an offseason reminiscent of be a GM mode in NHL 2024. Be bold and try something new. The formula is stale. The small injection of Bert and Domi was the most pleasant new mix of this year.

 

[Rielly4]

keller and durzi for marner base is something i could talk myself into

Marner wont agree to go there anyways.

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

I wouldn't even need a plus if they'd give up Keller for Marner. He doesn't play the same defense, but we'd get similar offensive production for just 7 million.

Zero chance Marner waives to live in Utah for the next 9 years.

 

[Dreakmur]

Zero chance Marner waives to live in Utah for the next 9 years.

I didn't suggest he would.

 

[djdev]

never say never, very improbable though i agree. at the end of the day know nobody is going to know whats happening until its done so im still gonna put my ideas out there lol.

 

[Malachi Crunch]

You're looking at what is likely a very short list of teams he's willing to waive his NMC for, which you can say with like 99% certainty won't include Ottawa or Buffalo.

Contenders, no tax state teams, sunny California teams, etc are likely what he's interested in. Not small markets that have been struggling for 5-10 years.

If Paul Marner is as overbearing as they say, I don't see Buffalo, Ottawa or Detroit as that far-fetched. I just can't see Paul jetting to Cali. Seems like more of an F-150 on the 401 type.

 

[Bluebear]

If the Leafs want to move on from Marner, he'd be crazy not waive the NMC. He'd be booed in T.O. for the rest of his career and heckled on the street for years after...

If they did trade him, the return would depend on how many teams he was willing to waive for, and how interested those teams were in adding him.

The right move would be to just take the best return they could get weather roster players, prospects or picks, to go with the cap relief. There will be a move available at that point that would make the Leafs better even though the Marner trade itself would likely be underwhelming.

I wonder if he would even be willing to sign a contract before the TDL with the Leafs. If they flame out tonight he will probably be banking on a huge regular season to justify his $$$ask.

 

[Americanadian]

One option that is not talked about for Tavares is the Marleau option.

If Treliving/Pelley make it clear they won't re-sign him they could offer to him the option to move him to a team that would buy him out, he gets paid out $10.7M for the buyout and gets to double dip on his next contract. Tavares would actually be making more money next season and he might be able to swing a 4-5 year deal after his 65 point season instead of looking for a new deal next year after he presumably declines further.

Obviously this would cost Toronto assets to make happen but there is a potential suitor: Philly.

To TOR: Couturier 6x7.75M
To PHI: Tavares (bought out immediately, 10.4M cap hit year 1, 0.3M cap hit year 2)

Couturier switched agents today, presumably because he wants out of Philly after the end of season debacle. He is most likely a negative asset but he has true rebound potential (strong underlying numbers this season at 5v5 and short handed). Philly gets out of a long-term commitment for one year of cap pain when they can afford it.

This could also work for Seth Jones.

 

[Kurtz]

One option that is not talked about for Tavares is the Marleau option.

If Treliving/Pelley make it clear they won't re-sign him they could offer to him the option to move him to a team that would buy him out, he gets paid out $10.7M for the buyout and gets to double dip on his next contract. Tavares would actually be making more money next season and he might be able to swing a 4-5 year deal after his 65 point season instead of looking for a new deal next year after he presumably declines further.

Obviously this would cost Toronto assets to make happen but there is a potential suitor: Philly.

To TOR: Couturier 6x7.75M
To PHI: Tavares (bought out immediately, 10.4M cap hit year 1, 0.3M cap hit year 2)

Couturier switched agents today, presumably because he wants out of Philly after the end of season debacle. He is most likely a negative asset but he has true rebound potential (strong underlying numbers this season at 5v5 and short handed). Philly gets out of a long-term commitment for one year of cap pain when they can afford it.

This could also work for Seth Jones.

Committing $8m/year for 6 years to a very injury prone 31 year-old seems like an awful idea.

I also don't get why Philly would buy out JT at that price instead of just playing him.

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

One option that is not talked about for Tavares is the Marleau option.

If Treliving/Pelley make it clear they won't re-sign him they could offer to him the option to move him to a team that would buy him out, he gets paid out $10.7M for the buyout and gets to double dip on his next contract. Tavares would actually be making more money next season and he might be able to swing a 4-5 year deal after his 65 point season instead of looking for a new deal next year after he presumably declines further.

Obviously this would cost Toronto assets to make happen but there is a potential suitor: Philly.

To TOR: Couturier 6x7.75M
To PHI: Tavares (bought out immediately, 10.4M cap hit year 1, 0.3M cap hit year 2)

Couturier switched agents today, presumably because he wants out of Philly after the end of season debacle. He is most likely a negative asset but he has true rebound potential (strong underlying numbers this season at 5v5 and short handed). Philly gets out of a long-term commitment for one year of cap pain when they can afford it.

This could also work for Seth Jones.

I think the team needs to relax, and look to build for 2025-2026 season. This summer, see what type of sweetheart extension Tavares will sign (3 years 3 mil?), and pencil him in as 3C for that year, or 2/3 LW.

I understand the frustration with the 11M hit next year, but unlike Marleau, they don't need to clear it to keep certain guys (at the time, it was about keeping Johnsson, Kapanen, others, absent doing the deal they'd lose guys they were high on). There is an opportunity cost issue of course with getting into the market, but I just dont see the incentive to pay any worthwhile assets or take on any anchor/negative consequences when there is a potential positive 12 months after, with him taking a less than market level deal to come back.

If hes not willing to do that/wants to get paid, i'd say you're not going to pay him that, so he should be more willing to move the NMC for a select few teams, retain 50%, get something back for him, and again, regroup for 2025-2026.

Marner is the interesting one. Both sides have to make a choice here, but trading him is also going to result in a very lackluster return when he gives them one (maybe two or three) teams he'd be willing to go to (and no team is trading for him without an extension in the drawer)

 

[Americanadian]

I also don't get why Philly would buy out JT at that price instead of just playing him.

The whole idea is you'd need Tavares to waive and he probably only waives if he knows he'll be free to pick his next team once bought out. I doubt he waives if he has to play in Philly for a year.

Committing $8m/year for 6 years to a very injury prone 31 year-old seems like an awful idea.

He actually had excellent underlying numbers this season and is still very good defensively. He could easily play 2C behind Matthews and actually PK unlike Tavares. Worst case scenario he gets another big injury and he rides out his career on LTIR.