Trades & Free Agency Thread: 2024-2025 - Trade Deadline Approaches

[nuck]

This trade basically set the market for teams like the leafs looking for a 2/3 C & 4/5 defenceman.

This is where it gets interesting. So might sellers go "hurray you guys are running out of choices so pay our price!" Or maybe they go "crap that's two clubs that kicked tires and walked away. Are we squeezing too hard?"

To those who think the club is standing pat, do you actually think Shanny is going to go out with a wimper this summer to save a couple of assets for the next Prez? Any club without playoff aspirations is a potential dance partner so maybe its someone we don't even have on our radar.

 

[jaric1862]

Canadiens call up Mailloux and Beck.

I wonder if we see a deal similar to the Granlund-Ceci but with Evans and Savard.

Edit: Adding this

 

[Visnovsky]

Leafs have Matthews for this year and 3 more.

There is nothing wrong with making hockey trades that aren't throwing assets away for rentals.

If they can land a 2nd. line center for the duration of Matthews contract then 1st. round picks in the late 20's aren't a great loss.

4 kicks at the can and then bottom out and restart.

Hockey trades I do understand and would gladly see one be made

 

[ULF_55]

Seems like teams are trying to set their roster ahead of the 4 nations cup

Dallas 4th. in the league points percentage improving their team.

 

[thewave]

We should be selling.

We got a Reaves, Holmberg, Domi, Timmins, Rielly and much more deadwood than that!

Buy after we sell. Team needs a shake

 

[BallardEra]

I wonder if we see a deal similar to the Granlund-Ceci but with Evans and Savard.

Caps were trying to land Evans this past summer.

 

[Rare Jewel]

The individual was literally proposing Boeser and Ehlers in a straight swap for Marner. You can do other things with the cap space, but it keeps coming back to the fact that you're very likely to get less impact from that cap space than Marner brings. You don't need to get rid of one of your best players to have a balanced team, and Marner at 13m is not an overpay or troublesome. In fact, with the cap skyrocketing to over 113m by 2027, it would quickly turn into a steal.

No, no. That's not what he's doing at all because I'm sure he would agree that Marner is the best of the three. So, you make the concession of downgrading at RW to bolster the lineup in another area and be able to do things like re-sign players and make additions comfortably throughout the season.

He's been one of our best playoff performers. We shouldn't throw away something so rare and beneficial to us because of this board's impatience and refusal to acknowledge context in playoff production.

Is 6 goals in 36 playoff games a good performance? I get that he's not the only one who's underachieved in the playoffs, but that's particularly disappointing, in my opinion. So I don't get that one, really, even from the standpoint of being good defensively. David Kampf is paid $2.4 to be good defensively, not $11m.

Representing Marner as 90 points is disingenuous, especially when the other side of the equation is represented in a completely opposite way to inflate their numbers.


Marner has had more than 90 points three times, has paced for more than 90 points for 7 consecutive years, has paced for 101 points since 2018, and is currently pacing for 109 points. Boeser and Ehlers have never actually combined for 151 points, and yet the individual had no issue representing them by their combined inflated half-season paces. Not to mention ignoring everything else Marner brings.

I'd agree with that; you can't really compare Marner's average to another's career best. But I would add that's not the best way to replace him. However, Marner still is 90 points; what he's paced on isn't really of any interest to me and Is kind of just you inflated the numbers the other way.

 

[leafan11]

For once I’d like to see us do nothing , what’s the worse that’s gonna happen ? We lose in the first round again ?

 

[jaric1862]

Caps were trying to land Evans this past summer.

I saw that. Don't think they need another RHD though.

I think the Leafs make a lot of sense for Evans & Savard.

 

[Kiwi]

For once I’d like to see us do nothing , what’s the worse that’s gonna happen ? We lose in the first round again ?

I'd like to see us make a move but I'd prefer it to be calculated and cost efficient

 

[Smif]

Everyone loading up and we are gonna trade for Gort Punchman to be our backup 4C.

Only two teams in a playoff spot have made any trades.

Also, if Miller and Petey didn't have issues together those moves aren't happening.

Edit - oops, didn't see the Dallas trade till now.

 

[Gabriel426]

You’re missing a player.

Who?

 

[Maple Leaf]

For once I’d like to see us do nothing , what’s the worse that’s gonna happen ? We lose in the first round again ?

thas already goin to happen. time to go big

 

[Smif]

For once I’d like to see us do nothing , what’s the worse that’s gonna happen ? We lose in the first round again ?

I agree. The team is 5 points out of the playoffs. Before I'm further mortgaging the future the current team needs to show me more. I know we've had a ton of injuries this season but what's to say that doesn't continue. This is an aging team now.

 

[Gabriel426]

I would say that Ehlers getting 88 points is quite a bit lofty, but really, he only has to get about 70 points at hopefully cheaper than $9m. That's actually not my preferred way of replacing Mitch, but I agree with the bolded point.

But MM never got 110pts in his career either.

To me, let’s not focus on points production as I am literally using this season pace as metrics.

Rather let’s focus on the idea making a better team. Like how moneyball the movie when they realise they can’t replace HRs form Giambi and Damon…but can replace their runs and on base %.

 

[ULF_55]

I’d swap Nylander/Robertson at 12.4M for many 12.4M combinations across the league.

I was kind of throwing that around in my head, but was using Matthews as the bait.

Was trying to determine if I'd do Celebrini or Bedard?

Hawks I'm guessing has a bigger market share than Sharks, if looking to market Matthews. Los Angeles would be the ideal, with it's demographics. I don't see anything I'd do from LA though.

But other options, Matthews and marner for Tkachuk, Bennet and Barkov.

 

[Stephen]

Agree. Let’s use production as a metric

If say MM signs at 13mil and he gets 110pts this season. And let’s say he will average that for his new contract.
Let’s say Ehlers sign for 9mil and gets 88pts.
The diff there is 22pts and 3mil.
MM at 13mil and 110pts plus someone like Holmberg at 950k and 16pts.
Or
Ehlers at 9mil with 88 pts plus someone at just under 4mil and will get 38pts or more, which is pretty much Ross Colton.

In short, is MM and Holmberg a better fit for the Leafs or Ehlers and Colton as better fit.

Not going to get into this

But if The comparison is 1W and 4th liner or 1W and 3C. I think everyone will pick 1W and 3C

Just doing some quick math, but 5 years of Matthews old contract, 5 of 6 years of Marner's contract, 6 of 7 years of Tavares contract completed, we've paid out 16x discrete years of $10 million salaries but have only seen 2x 100 point seasons, both from Matthews, and it's not enough of a return on investment even in the regular season.

At $13 million, you'd need Marner to be scoring in the 110s-140s range in a typical year to get as much juice as Edmonton and Colorado are getting out of Draisaitl, McDavid and Mackinnon. Same goes for Matthews on his current deal.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No, no. That's not what he's doing at all because I'm sure he would agree that Marner is the best of the three.

That's literally what he said. Take it up with him.

So, you make the concession of downgrading at RW to bolster the lineup in another area and be able to do things like re-sign players and make additions comfortably throughout the season.

We don't need to downgrade on one of our best players to improve other areas. We just need to do better at finding effective and efficient players in those other areas. We don't have players to re-sign that require losing Marner.

Also, Marner brings offensive and defensive impacts in all situations. Whatever other area you're trying to improve would be simultaneously hurt by losing Marner.

Is 6 goals in 36 playoff games a good performance?

That's not enough information to determine that. Cherry picking the point type least relevant to a player's playstyle over a cherry picked time frame without any context behind that production or consideration for anything outside of production is a poor way to evaluate their performance.

I'd agree with that; you can't really compare Marner's average to another's career best. But I would add that's not the best way to replace him. However, Marner still is 90 points; what he's paced on isn't really of any interest to me and Is kind of just you inflated the numbers the other way.

I didn't inflate anything. I noted 4 different ways to look at Marner's production level, and every single one was greater than 90 points. I also applied the exact same method to each side, instead of the complete opposite methods the other individual attempted.

The other individual was the one who first used pace, for the record, and unlike me and the consistent 7 year pace that I looked at, he cherry picked an unrepresentative half-season sample. What you're interested in doesn't really matter. 90 points is objectively an underrepresentation of what Marner brings, especially considering how the other side was represented.

 

[ACC1224]

Who?

No idea. You added two players points together and compared to one.

 

[Gabriel426]

Just doing some quick math, but 5 years of Matthews old contract, 5 of 6 years of Marner's contract, 6 of 7 years of Tavares contract completed, we've paid out 16x discrete years of $10 million salaries but have only seen 2x 100 point seasons, both from Matthews, and it's not enough of a return on investment even in the regular season.

At $13 million, you'd need Marner to be scoring in the 110s-140s range in a typical year to get as much juice as Edmonton and Colorado are getting out of Draisaitl, McDavid and Mackinnon. Same goes for Matthews on his current deal.

Agree and thanks for looking it up.

The key for contenders/Cup winners is having value contract, where players outperform their contracts. Whether that is 1mil or 12mil.

Hence that’s the problem with our boys, beside Willie(as he was at 7mil), they collectively have not outperformed their contracts despite AM winning two Rockets, as that’s pretty much expected as someone getting paid the second or third highest salary in the league and highest this year.

And I have not even mentioned playoffs.

No idea. You added two players points together and compared to one.

Bro, it was MM and Holmberg Vs Ehlers and Colton as an example.

Pls reread, lol.

 

[Stephen]

For once I’d like to see us do nothing , what’s the worse that’s gonna happen ? We lose in the first round again ?

If we are adding a medium to long term piece that can grow with the team a la Hagel, McCabe, Ekholm, H. Lindholm trades, I would be okay with shaking things up. If it's a short term rental to frantically bulk up on the "Matthews timetable" I don't agree. The guys at the top are not showing enough growth to justify that level of mortgaging what little futures we have to mortgage. Heal the depth the of the organization, reset for medium term goals and move on. You'll still need some semblance of a program when there's no Matthews, no Marner, no Shanahan, etc.

 

[Rare Jewel]

But MM never got 110pts in his career either.

To me, let’s not focus on points production as I am literally using this season pace as metrics.

Rather let’s focus on the idea making a better team. Like how moneyball the movie when they realise they can’t replace HRs form Giambi and Damon…but can replace their runs and on base %.

That is a very good comparison. But some people are going to have the NBA mentally, where it's just STARS, STARS, STARS!

I've kind of seen enough of that philosophy of team building.

 

[Gabriel426]

If we are adding a medium to long term piece that can grow with the team a la Hagel, McCabe, Ekholm, H. Lindholm trades, I would be okay with shaking things up. If it's a short term rental to frantically bulk up on the "Matthews timetable" I don't agree. The guys at the top are not showing enough growth to justify that level of mortgaging what little futures we have to mortgage. Heal the depth the of the organization, reset for medium term goals and move on. You'll still need some semblance of a program when there's no Matthews, no Marner, no Shanahan, etc.

Agree. I don’t mind them trading futures for rentals but need to make sure those rentals are either still have terms like Muzzin, Lafferty, and McCabe or players that Leafs can resign like having the cap space.

 

[thewave]

That is a very good comparison. But some people are going to have the NBA mentally, where it's just STARS, STARS, STARS!

I've kind of seen enough of that philosophy of team building.

It works in the NBA. No Goalie. He who shoots best under pressure wins.

I think people want a balanced team that plays solid 60mins and wins. The Stars are more for kids. You get over 30 yrs old and you stop seeing stars and start seeing the, but how do they help us win a cup part.

30 under buy most the merch though.

 

[Stephen]

Agree and thanks for looking it up.

The key for contenders/Cup winners is having value contract, where players outperform their contracts. Whether that is 1mil or 12mil.

Hence that’s the problem with our boys, beside Willie(as he was at 7mil), they collectively have not outperformed their contracts despite AM winning two Rockets, as that’s pretty much expected as someone getting paid the second or third highest salary in the league and highest this year.

And I have not even mentioned playoffs.


Bro, it was MM and Holmberg Vs Ehlers and Colton as an example.

Pls reread, lol.

Matthews gave us fair retail value on his last contract. It was a luxury player at a luxury price, with very little room for surplus value to be found but we got our money's worth. My big issue with him this season is you bake the new salary, captaincy, injuries, inconsistency into one and it's massive regression and not building any momentum on top of anything from the past. So I don't trust our foundations to make massive short term additions.

In terms of an organizational shift from top heavy to a more distributed roster and cap structure, I'm not sure what the answer is.

I do believe in a team built on more depth and more fiscal responsibility, but I think it has to be built that way like the Dallas Stars model. They just drafted well, developed in house, promoted internally and handed out reasonable upper middle class deals. I think it's a different organizational mindset, they didn't grow up with the mentality that they were the best core of the era destined for great things.

I look at the Avalanche and Rantanen, I'm not convinced going from high end and changing stance by downgrading works. So moving off Marner to get Boeser and Ehlers might balance the cap sheet a little bit but if one of those guys goes south you're basically cooked.