Trades & Free Agency Thread: 2024-2025 Season Edition

[Americanadian]

Dreger linked seven players to us on insider trading:

brock nelson
ryan strome
ryan o'reilly
scott laughton
mikael granlund
yanni gourde
nick bjugstad

Friedman mentioned on the 32 thoughts blog that we prefer a C with term.

Who do you like best?

No one on this list gets me excited given the cost of acquisition and the term on the contracts. Laughton and ROR are the only ones with term and Laughton isn’t a C, ROR will cost a ton to acquire and the Leafs don’t even have this years 1st.

 

[jaric1862]

No one on this list gets me excited given the cost of acquisition and the term on the contracts. Laughton and ROR are the only ones with term and Laughton isn’t a C, ROR will cost a ton to acquire and the Leafs don’t even have this years 1st.

Strome also has term, but he's not an ideal candidate.

I think we end up with one of Gourde or Bjugstad, using 2nd +

 

[Americanadian]

Strome also has term, but he's not an ideal candidate.

I think we end up with one of Gourde or Bjugstad, using 2nd +

I forgot Strome - probably the worst player on that list.

Assuming the same asset cost: I’d rather trade for McBain than anyone on that list, including ROR. McBain is significantly younger, significantly cheaper on the cap, significantly tougher. ROR was an awkward fit last time and ended up playing on the wing. McBain would fill in nicely at 3C.

 

[arso40]

I forgot Strome - probably the worst player on that list.

Assuming the same asset cost: I’d rather trade for McBain than anyone on that list, including ROR. McBain is significantly younger, significantly cheaper on the cap, significantly tougher. ROR was an awkward fit last time and ended up playing on the wing. McBain would fill in nicely at 3C.

What do you think it cost to get him? And isn’t he playing wing for the Utah club

 

[BertCorbeau]

I forgot Strome - probably the worst player on that list.

Assuming the same asset cost: I’d rather trade for McBain than anyone on that list, including ROR. McBain is significantly younger, significantly cheaper on the cap, significantly tougher. ROR was an awkward fit last time and ended up playing on the wing. McBain would fill in nicely at 3C.

Why is Utah trading McBain though?

 

[aingefan]

Frost will be lucky if he gets a 2yr/3m per.

What’s your comp on that?
He’s a .5ppg guy on a bad team who will be 26 at time of signing so right on the brink of UFA. And better than that the two years prior.
And Ferris is notorious.

 

[Torontonian]

No one on this list gets me excited given the cost of acquisition and the term on the contracts. Laughton and ROR are the only ones with term and Laughton isn’t a C, ROR will cost a ton to acquire and the Leafs don’t even have this years 1st.

They aren't sexy names, but a majority of players on the list would be very good additions to what we have now.

We don't need to have a exciting 3rd line, just a line that can play good two way hockey at 5 on 5.

 

[aingefan]

I like Frost but he doesn't check enough boxes. He's not a PKer or a great faceoff player or physical. He would add speed and skill but on the Leafs, he won't get nearly as much ice time. I think we'd be much better off with a heavy PK center that can chip in and provide some physicality.

The Leafs would probably like to get Murphy and Dickinson but it's way too much salary and it would take a lot to get done. Chicago won't retain without a big return with good reason.

Dubas loved to do one stop shop additions. I'm not sure Treliving is of the same mind. I think they need to focus on the best center they can add for the value, and look at efficient depth options if they want to bolster their D. I'm not sure they need to get a big time add there.

I get what you’re saying about best C available, but with the supply and demand, the costs could get silly.
With multiple pieces, it’s easier to feel better about moving better assets.

 

[Americanadian]

Why is Utah trading McBain though?

They have no immediate need to move him but they also have significant bottom 6C depth. If they were trying to move him I don’t think the cost would be the same as a ROR. If the Leafs have to pry him out of there (which would be the case), the cost would be as high as ROR which I alluded to.

What do you think it cost to get him? And isn’t he playing wing for the Utah club

A significant overpay - probably the same as the cost for the top C rentals.

He is playing 2LW because they have too many bottom 6 C’s.

 

[aingefan]

I agree on his next deal—maybe even a three-year bridge? He seems like an intriguing option for the Leafs.

From what I’ve read, Frost hasn’t quite lived up to expectations, and at 25 years old, you have to wonder if his development has stalled under Tortorella. I think there’s a legitimate argument that he’d benefit from a defined role in a structured system, especially on the third line with consistent and quality linemates. That kind of stability could help unlock his potential.

The big question is always the cost to acquire him. Nick Robertson, for example, is three years younger (someone can confirm), and he still has significant upside. Is Robertson enough on his own, or would the Flyers want more, like a B-level prospect or a mid-round pick?

There’s something really appealing about the idea of locking in our second and third-line centers for the next couple of years with Tavares and Frost. If Frost flourishes here, it’s a huge win. And if not, his next contract likely wouldn’t be a cap killer. It feels like a low-risk, high-reward kind of move.

For me, the appeal with Frost is that he’s got enough offensive chops to produce as legitimate 2nd line C for a while, not so much that he’s the optimal plug in for this moment. But I’d categorize the appeal as ‘warm’….not burning hot.
Plus the connection to the team and community.
Of the C’s reportedly available I’m not so sure there’s a guy I’d move the best assets for. And optimally, I’d love to find someone who’s got lots of runway left if that’s what the cost is gonna be.
With Frost at least you could envision a guy that becomes #2 when JT slides down to #3.

 

[seanlinden]

They have no immediate need to move him but they also have significant bottom 6C depth. If they were trying to move him I don’t think the cost would be the same as a ROR. If the Leafs have to pry him out of there (which would be the case), the cost would be as high as ROR which I alluded to.

He is playing 2LW because they have too many bottom 6 C’s.

I think the reality is for a team like Utah, is that they look at their immense depth, and say to themselves -- they're interested in quantity for quality where they're trading the quantity.

I'm sure McBain's available, but he's probably available, amongst other guys, for a JT Miller, Elias Pettersson, Dylan Cozens type; maybe a greater focus on the blueline.

You look at the Leafs, the players from their roster that would potentially be on the way out are Robertson, Dewar, Kampf, etc.... none of these are overly appearling to Utah.

The Leafs trade chips are the likes of Cowan, Minten, Grebenkin, draft picks... and Utah has a ton of those already.

 

[seanlinden]

For me, the appeal with Frost is that he’s got enough offensive chops to produce as legitimate 2nd line C for a while, not so much that he’s the optimal plug in for this moment. But I’d categorize the appeal as ‘warm’….not burning hot.
Plus the connection to the team and community.
Of the C’s reportedly available I’m not so sure there’s a guy I’d move the best assets for. And optimally, I’d love to find someone who’s got lots of runway left if that’s what the cost is gonna be.
With Frost at least you could envision a guy that becomes #2 when JT slides down to #3.

The challenge with that approach is that Tavares likely isn't your ideal #3C either... he's probably more of a guy that should be a 2nd line winger; where admittedly Frost might be a good option as the #2C in that spot.

Of course, spending our limited asset base to deal with a future problem, rather than the immediate glaring current problem, probably not in the cards.

 

[OVO16]

Isles fans are saying Ben Danford + 2026 1st for JG Pageau (50% retained)

 

[Fogelhund]

Isles fans are saying Ben Danford + 2026 1st for JG Pageau (50% retained)

I don't think that's unfair. I don't rate Danford as much, and a 3C at $2.5 million for the next two years is reasonable enough.

Edit... my bad, I was thinking of Webber, not Danford... ya, I'm not doing two firsts.... I'd give up Webber and a 1st... maybe Danford and Robertson... but not Danford and a 1st. That's too rich.

 

[ULF_55]

Isles fans are saying Ben Danford + 2026 1st for JG Pageau (50% retained)

They can pound sand.

 

[uncleben]

I don't think that's unfair. I don't rate Danford as much, and a 3C at $2.5 million for the next two years is reasonable enough.

3C at $2.5 million for the next two years, sure

Would rather not give up the equivalent of 2 firsts for it, though.

 

[1specter]

I don't think that's unfair. I don't rate Danford as much, and a 3C at $2.5 million for the next two years is reasonable enough.

No thanks, if we're giving up one of our top specs and a first it needs to be a more impactful, younger player with term.

 

[Fogelhund]

3C at $2.5 million for the next two years, sure

Would rather not give up the equivalent of 2 firsts for it, though.

No thanks, if we're giving up one of our top specs and a first it needs to be a more impactful, younger player with term.

I've edited my statement... for some reason I had Cade Webber in my head, when I read Danford.... I mixed them up in my head. So I've edited my comments... if it were Webber, sure.

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs should empty the cupboard for a top end player.

Someone to replace Tavares and a first pairing defender.

They probably have Matthews contract length as their best opportunity to win, and none of Cowan or Danford or ... is going to help in that regard.

Everyone in play, including all future picks.

Ideally a player on an expiring contract that could be a sign and trade, and if retention is required for the current contract sobeit.

Use expiring Tavares capspace for the new / upcoming contract.

Those teams in the rear view mirror may not be as far behind as people think.

 

[Fogelhund]

Leafs should empty the cupboard for a top end player.

Someone to replace Tavares and a first pairing defender.

They probably have Matthews contract length as their best opportunity to win, and none of Cowan or Danford or ... is going to help in that regard.

Everyone in play, including all future picks.

Ideally a player on an expiring contract that could be a sign and trade, and if retention is required for the current contract sobeit.

Use expiring Tavares capspace for the new / upcoming contract.

Those teams in the rear view mirror may not be as far behind as people think.

Here is Tavares, at PPG, 57% in the dot, having a great season, and people are still trying to "replace" him...

You aren't getting someone better at this point... that's just reality. Who exactly is out there, that is younger, has more potential, and is available?

Krebs is a guy who should be more than he is so far... he's young, been a producer, but hasn't had his game grow, on a team where many players aren't that effective, but seem to go on to success elsewhere. His pedigree suggested potentially a 2C, even if that hasn't been fulfilled in Buffalo. He wouldn't cost much, his cap hit is good.... and maybe we can find a way to unlock that potential... and if not, he's still a decent 3C, that we have long-term control of.

 

[ULF_55]

Here is Tavares, at PPG, 57% in the dot, having a great season, and people are still trying to "replace" him...

You aren't getting someone better at this point... that's just reality. Who exactly is out there, that is younger, has more potential, and is available?

Krebs is a guy who should be more than he is so far... he's young, been a producer, but hasn't had his game grow, on a team where many players aren't that effective, but seem to go on to success elsewhere. His pedigree suggested potentially a 2C, even if that hasn't been fulfilled in Buffalo. He wouldn't cost much, his cap hit is good.... and maybe we can find a way to unlock that potential... and if not, he's still a decent 3C, that we have long-term control of.

Not replace him this year, complement him.

Make the team better now and in the future.

He could still be re-signed to a significantly lower contract next year if he is interested.

I'd be thrilled if he isn't needed next year, but he'll be 35 next year, and it is a long season before the playoffs begin. I'm all for re-signing him, but not needing to gives him less leverage.

 

[1specter]

Not replace him this year, complement him.

Make the team better now and in the future.

He could still be re-signed to a significantly lower contract next year if he is interested.

I'd be thrilled if he isn't needed next year, but he'll be 35 next year, and it is a long season before the playoffs begin. I'm all for re-signing him, but not needing to gives him less leverage.

JT doesn't want to go anywhere else, he's a family man and his entire family and wife's family are well situated in the GTA. It's Toronto or nothing for him, he doesn't have as much leverage as you might think.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Not replace him this year, complement him.

Make the team better now and in the future.

He could still be re-signed to a significantly lower contract next year if he is interested.

I'd be thrilled if he isn't needed next year, but he'll be 35 next year, and it is a long season before the playoffs begin. I'm all for re-signing him, but not needing to gives him less leverage.

As much as I hate to say this, I'm leaning towards agreeing. We're arguably not going to have a better window than now. By the time Cowan and Minten, for example, become productive top-9 players we'll be looking at ~2+ years later on guys like JT, Tanev, McCabe, etc. We may not even have Marner. There is a strong argument to be made to double down this year, particularly if the returning player(s) are not UFAs. Danford is years away, and we have very little else in the blueline pipeline.

 

[aingefan]

The challenge with that approach is that Tavares likely isn't your ideal #3C either... he's probably more of a guy that should be a 2nd line winger; where admittedly Frost might be a good option as the #2C in that spot.

Of course, spending our limited asset base to deal with a future problem, rather than the immediate glaring current problem, probably not in the cards.

Yeah, that’s fair, but the flip side is JT centring a third line gives you a chance to redefine it.
I’d envisioned that he would have floated to the wing already, and to his credit he’s pushed that timeline back. By years.
With Frost, is there a way that he’s a smart fit…yeah, probably; perfect fit right now, not really. If the cost was Robertson, and you exchanged his upside at a position where there’s a few guys in the org with similar ceilings, for Frost with his imperfections but at a less dense position organizationally….it’s probably worth it.
Any higher cost….prolly not right now.
Plus, Ferris is still a d!ck.

 

[ULF_55]

JT doesn't want to go anywhere else, he's a family man and his entire family and wife's family are well situated in the GTA. It's Toronto or nothing for him, he doesn't have as much leverage as you might think.

I don't believe it is all or nothing for him.

If he's offered 4*8mm in Pittsburgh(or another team) and 2*6mm in Toronto I doubt he turns down the Penguins.