GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[SprDaVE]

I think Saros is a good goalie. However considering the goalie markey (and we can quibble if Saros is better than recent ones) trading Marner for a goalie to me is asinine. I want no part of any trade with NSH, they have nothing I want outside of Saros, and he cannot be the principal part of a return for a 100 point elite RW unless there are SIGNIFICANT sweetners attached.

Welcome to trying a trade a player with a full NMC, UFA in a years time and getting dumped on pretty heavily through the fanbase and through the hockey world in general. Marner is great though and should have a ton of value... should... To me he should be a Maple Leaf next year really but we're basically throwing away the player because it's not working.

I think you're exaggerating quite a bit that Nashville has nothing of value outside of Saros and his value should suck. I get that we're Leaf fans here and our bias is severely tilted one way but try to look at it from their side.

 

[LeafsFan89]

We are trading a 100 point RW who's had Selke votes, if he isn't worth plenty he shouldn't be traded

**** getting screwed over and giving him away for jack ****

Ok... I hear you. But are you prepared to let this 100 point RW who had Selke votes walk away next year and get absolutely nothing?

 

[Brobust]

trading marner is changing the culture, getting cap flexibility and bringing balance to the roster. Getting a one to one or top prospect just isn't realistic at this point.

They need a goalie and a top dman.
Which goalies are available? Gibson? Markstrom? Ullmark?
Which D are available? Seth Jones? Carlson? Ekblad? Parayko?

None of those D really get me excited

Ullmark would probably be best target but within Division probably isn't realistic
Markstrom is to old
Gibson is interesting, Gibson and Zegras would be interesting

Saros + is a good hockey trade

Getting a McTavish or Cooley is definitely out of the question. But getting to a tier of prospects and young players just below that is a very fair ask, IMO.

E.g. If dealing with Chicago, there's no reason Toronto shouldn't be able to demand Nazar + Vlasic as the centrepieces.

 

[Fogelhund]

Marner trade aside, Pagnotta said Treliving will be looking for a 3rd line shutdown center. A center with offensive upside but also some jam

2 Players he expects Treliving to go after are Scott Laughton and Boone Jenner.

This also makes me think Tre liked Domi more as a passing winger

I highly doubt Jenner would be available though... Columbus is a team that desperately needs C's, so trading one of their experienced ones away, doesn't seem logical.

Laughton is possible, although I'm not sure we'd like the price.

I'd personally go after Lindholm, who can play very well defensively, and has offensive upside, as the future 2C... and move Tavares down to 3C. Target a young C, in part of the Marner trade... Wright, McBain... I know, two different types of C... but both could be valuable assets long-term.

 

[TheShape]

He'll be 30 years old when his next deal kicks in technically. To be honest, I'd be worried about any goaltender acquired in any trade. It's a tough market to assess.

But Nashville is a good trading partner and they have assets we could use and vice versa. I just think it's weird that people are taking a dump on Saros when he's been one of the better goaltender in the league for the last 3 years, something we haven't had had in a very long time.

We have to get the Marner trade right, goalies are volatile assets and for me that’s what it boils down to. If Saros is the main piece in the return, we’re selling ourselves short.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Utah would be the best trading partner when it comes to a Marner trade, Utah will also be looking to make a big splash. Guenther and McBain would be really good gets.

Yeah I like the Utah idea for both sides tbh.

 

[TMLAM34]

Yeah I like the Utah idea for both sides tbh.

If they got someone of Marner’s caliber, their forward group could be real solid.

Crouse - Cooley - Marner
Keller - Geekie - Schmaltz
Maccelli - Hayton - Doan
Kerfoot - McBain - Bjugstad

That’s assuming Guenther would be involved in the deal (which I’d push for). That forward group is also dirt cheap, they’d have money to address the second line center with one of Stephenson or Lindholm if they don’t think Geekie would be ready.

 

[613Leafer]

We have to get the Marner trade right, goalies are volatile assets and for me that’s what it boils down to. If Saros is the main piece in the return, we’re selling ourselves short.

Goalies being volatile - yes and no. The bulk of starters in the league are pretty volatile and will swing from looking like a fantastic starter one year, to costing you a whole bunch of games the next year.

But the top 5ish guys (such as Saros) are pretty consistent. Since his rookie season, Saros is 3rd in the league for save % (minimum 200 games played). He only has one season below a 0.910 save % (though that also happens to be last season). His previous low was 0.914. Samsanov's career average by contrast is 0.903 (ie Saros' worst year is better than Samsonov's average).

My concern about Saros is that a small goalie may be less likely to thrive in a different system, plus he's coming off statistically his worst season, so our scouts would have to be quite confident the down year wasn't due to a decline in performance, and that he could thrive here despite his size. I don't know the answer to that.

In theory, I'm not against a goalie being a major part of the trade return, but it'd have to be a top 5ish goalie (or a top top young goalie) we're confident can continue to play at that level for ~4-5+ more years (and Saros seems like the only one maybe available). And even then, there'd have to be other pieces, decent cap savings, etc.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

If they got someone of Marner’s caliber, their forward group could be real solid.

Crouse - Cooley - Marner
Keller - Geekie - Schmaltz
Maccelli - Hayton - Doan
Kerfoot - McBain - Bjugstad

That’s assuming Guenther would be involved in the deal (which I’d push for). That forward group is also dirt cheap, they’d have money to address the second line center with one of Stephenson or Lindholm if they don’t think Geekie would be ready.

They are going to want to send some salary back IMO; we just have to make sure that salary expires soon.

 

[WTFMAN99]

They are going to want to send some salary back IMO; we just have to make sure that salary expires soon.

I think they'd want to get out of the Schmaltz contract.

 

[Kurtz]

Just to play devil's advocate on Saros...he's only paid $5m next season and with that being the last year of the deal and Nash being flush with cap space, it probably would be pretty easy to get them to eat 50% of the contract for a season. Especially given that we're likely to pay Mitch's bonus so he'd only be owed 700k for next season (imo a big factor for some NHL owners).

So if the trade is retained Saros plus futures, we're saving 8mil in cap in addition to having Saros. That gets us a Lindholm and then some.

So while I'm also not super eager to deal Mitch for a goalie, if the choice is Mitch vs Saros+Lindholm+picks/prospects and an extra mil or so in cap, I think it's pretty clear that we're a better team with the latter.

 

[Brobust]

Ok... I hear you. But are you prepared to let this 100 point RW who had Selke votes walk away next year and get absolutely nothing?

Ok, extend him.

 

[Fogelhund]

They are going to want to send some salary back IMO; we just have to make sure that salary expires soon.

Why though?... they have $43 million in cap space for next year.

 

[TMLAM34]

Why though?... they have $43 million in cap space for next year.

Maybe we take on the Weber contract and permanently LTIR him. But like you said, they don’t really need to do anything, they have the cap space and no real bad contracts anyways.

To Toronto: Dylan Guenther + Sean Durzi + Shea Weber + EDM 2nd Round Draft Pick
To Utah: Mitch Marner + Timothy Liljegren

 

[namttebih]

5 2nds and 3 1sts.

Is that your offer?

 

[Fogelhund]

Maybe we take on the Weber contract and permanently LTIR him. But like you said, they don’t really need to do anything, they have the cap space and no real bad contracts anyways.

Weber is probably insured, or mostly insured, and not costing them much in real dollars. Even if it's not insured, it's only $1 mil salary for this year and next.

 

[Brobust]

Here are the scenarios for Mitch Marner

1. Trade him for a good return
2. Trade him for a return filled with risk or an underwhelming return
3. Let him walk to free agency
4. Extend him

It's either option 1 or option 4.

 

[OVO16]

Friedman on 32 thoughts said the Leafs haven't even started entertaining the idea of a Marner trade until they speak to him and the agent first about contract demands.

If the contract demands are ridiculous, then all bets are off according to EF

 

[supermann_98]

He'll be 30 years old when his next deal kicks in technically. To be honest, I'd be worried about any goaltender acquired in any trade. It's a tough market to assess.

But Nashville is a good trading partner and they have assets we could use and vice versa. I just think it's weird that people are taking a dump on Saros when he's been one of the better goaltender in the league for the last 3 years, something we haven't had had in a very long time.

Agreed, I just think people have delusions of getting an elite, minimum 6'-3" goalie who's locked up for the next 4-5 years like they grow on trees.

Saros would be a huge improvement in net over anything we've had the last 10 years, and although I don't "love" the return in a package for Marner with him as the centerpiece, I know the picks/prospects that come in that package should offset the difference somewhat and the money saved help bolster the defense which is sorely needed.

 

[Mickey Marner]

In a Utah trade, I'd probably target Durzi+Geekie+Utah 2nd (38th). I'm sure they wouldn't be too keen on moving Durzi and Geekie, but it still leaves them with Cooley, Guenther, Lamoureux, Simashev, Daniil But and 6th overall. And Marner would be the best player they've had since Tkachuk? Selanne?

Geekie is a potential Tavares 2C replacement with a year buffer to acclimate the pro game and Durzi gives us a right-shot 2nd pair PPQB that will cost significantly less than someone like Montour and we'd be paying for his 20's, not his 30's.

Could always throw in someone like Liljegren to soft the Durzi blow.

 

[WTFMAN99]

In a Utah trade, I'd probably target Durzi+Geekie+Utah 2nd (38th). I'm sure they wouldn't be too keen on moving Durzi and Geekie, but it still leaves them with Cooley, Guenther, Lamoureux, Simashev, Daniil But and 6th overall. And Marner would be the best player they've had since Tkachuk? Selanne?

Geekie is a potential Tavares 2C replacement with a year buffer to acclimate the pro game and Durzi gives us a right-shot 2nd pair PPQB that will cost significantly less than someone like Montour and we'd be paying for his 20's, not his 30's.

Could always throw in someone like Liljegren to soft the Durzi blow.

I wouldn't mind their 1st as I am super high on Dickinson to go with someone like Crouse.

They've got a ton of prospects/young guys,.

 

[supermann_98]

Here are the scenarios for Mitch Marner

1. Trade him for a good return
2. Trade him for a return filled with risk or an underwhelming return
3. Let him walk to free agency
4. Extend him

It's either option 1 or option 4.

Option 3 if signing Leon Draisatl with the Marner money is a realistic possibility

 

[SprDaVE]

Friedman on 32 thoughts said the Leafs haven't even started entertaining the idea of a Marner trade until they speak to him and the agent first about contract demands.

If the contract demands are ridiculous, then all bets are off according to EF

Makes sense. Treliving basically admitted they haven't even thought about anything like that. It's been all coaches and scout meetings.

But if we're going with the assumption that something has to change... I dunno what else they can do though.

 

[Fogelhund]

In a Utah trade, I'd probably target Durzi+Geekie+Utah 2nd (38th). I'm sure they wouldn't be too keen on moving Durzi and Geekie, but it still leaves them with Cooley, Guenther, Lamoureux, Simashev, Daniil But and 6th overall. And Marner would be the best player they've had since Tkachuk? Selanne?

Geekie is a potential Tavares 2C replacement with a year buffer to acclimate the pro game and Durzi gives us a right-shot 2nd pair PPQB that will cost significantly less than someone like Montour and we'd be paying for his 20's, not his 30's.

Could always throw in someone like Liljegren to soft the Durzi blow.

Wanting Durzi over Liljegren is peak the grass is greener elsewhere, when it actually isn't. Durzi isn't as physically strong as Liljegren, is a defensive adventure at best, and many of the Utah/Arizona fans suggest he is often a problem on the PP, coughing up the puck leading to opportunities to the other team.

We would be far better to keep Liljegren.... forget stats watching on bad teams.

 

[OVO16]

Pierre Lebrun just doubled down saying the Leafs haven't even started any trade conversations about Marner and he's not even sure Marner gets traded. Like he's saying the leafs haven't even made that decision to trade him

Also, Lebrun just said Trotz wants to sign Saros to an extension lmao

Yeah these nashville rumors ain't happening