guymez
The Seldom Seen Kid
- Mar 3, 2004
- 33,076
- 12,823
Even though I think it's time to move on from Eberle, I do believe in shooting percentage being a regression thing and Eberle is a 13% career shooter.
(PS before I get into this, I know Ebs had 51 pts, but these calculations only account for 5v5 + 5v4 and don't get into any other situation like 6v4).
If you take his last 3 years, average it and then drop the percent .05 (accounted because the player is aging), he'd be projected to shoot 11.9% next year which is still under his usual average.
That's 25 goals if he shoots 200 shots again.
I'd still expect the same 33 5v5 points, his style of play is more of a perimeter and I don't see him suddenly becoming more dynamic. It appears he got most jipped on the PP, only posting a 95.7 PDO and only shooting 8%. His worst before that on the PP was 13% in his rookie year.
The question is: Why did he tank so hard on the PP this year? If it's just a matter of bad luck and not getting the bounces, I'd expect those numbers to correct themselves and that's probably an extra 10 points right there. 13 PP points becomes 23 PP points.
If I'm a team acquiring Eberle, I'm studying how he can fit on my PP to bounce back.
If you want to predict Eberle STRAIGHT off of math, it comes out to about:
25 goals, 31 assists, 56 points. Throw in a few points while on 6v4 and he could be at 60 points again healthy.
I think that has value. Whether or not he can produce in the playoffs is currently a wildcard. His first one was awful.
Nice that you took the time to post this....very reasonable projection IMO.
57 points would put Eberle at .7 ppg.
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