HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #93: Y'all got any more of those 2nd line centers out there?

[DAChampion]

Except other years are irrelevant.

They're not, you use previous years to establish expectations for future years.

With picks 31-40, you have a 10-15% chance of a very good player.

 

[LaP]

No, it isn't.

You appear to overestimate the value of draft picks. Getting 1 NHLer who can produce & contribute at this rate by 24, out of a late 1st & 2nd, would be considered a positive outcome to anyone grounding their take in actual draft outcomes.

Again, assessments made without grounding in the real context of the NHL make for bad takes imo.

You happen to overrate the value of 3rd liners. They are not hard to find. And they are usually worth two 2nd round pick maybe less depending on how good or noth that player is.

 

[TeacherMan]

I don’t know how injured he was or how injury prone he might be going forward. Three years is a long time to have been injured (if that’s what happened) and him coincidentally playing better for a few months during his contract year, raises red flags for me.

Plus, he’s a total vanilla player — I don’t like someone who contributes 12 goals and 21 assists over a regular season schedule. That kind of production is replacement level.

There is also Armia to sign (I know they can afford both). Maybe I’d go with a team friendly short term deal with Armia and take my chances on the market for a better player than Dvorak.

Agreed with everything--particularly the bolded part. We shouldn't have both Dvorak and Evans. We need a tougher centre line for the playoffs. Ideally, that centre would also be good on faceoffs.

 

[TeacherMan]

you are so right, add a cory perry type of player to this habs team and they are probably up 3-1..

that will be addressed this off season, i have no worries.
the team showed a lot of heart and talent. now just need those key additions,

Absolutely! Is there a Corey-Perry type player available?

 

[Miller Time]

You happen to overrate the value of 3rd liners. They are not hard to find. And they are usually worth two 2nd round pick maybe less depending on how good or noth that player is.

Disagree.

What Newhook provides, today, is very good value for a 2.9M$ NHLer, and considerably more than what two picks in the 30+ range are likely to offer based on extensive historical drafts.

 

[Miller Time]

Newhook is indeed worth more than the median player drafted 31st overall.

But the value of draft picks comes not from the medians but from the tails. It's a one in three chance of getting a replacement-level player is irrelevant. What matters is the one in ten or fifteen chance of getting a significant positive impact player.

Newhook was traded for a 31st and 37th. Let's look at players drafted between 30 and 40.

2015
Sebastian Aho at 35th
2016
Alex DeBrincat at 39th
2017
Nicholas Hague at 34th
Jason Robertson at 39th
2018
Alex Romanov at 38th

So over four representative years, out of 40 total players, we get at least five significant positive impact players. That's a 12.5% chance. And since the Habs traded two picks, the odds (approximately) double to 25%.

Would you not give up Newhook for a 25% chance at an Aho/DeBrincat/Romanov type player?

Obviously yes, because the tails matter.

Obviously no, because roster & cap context matter.

Beyond that, I'd obviously take Newhook over a 75% chance of insignificant NHLers (or AHLers), almost in any roster/cap context.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

They're not, you use previous years to establish expectations for future years.

With picks 31-40, you have a 10-15% chance of a very good player.

Percentages are irrelevant when the draft is imminent. Note I was looking at the 2019 draft when the picks were in the 2023 draft A good GM knows if it s a deep draft or if there is very little at that point in the draft. They could look at it and say the odds of even one player we like as much as Newhook dropping to 31 is very low. And that does apply to the 2023 draft. There were a few players in that range but most were small.

 

[TeacherMan]

I know, but having a big defence always help. Look at the winning teams. Theres not a lot of soft and weak dman. Hutson has to be our only one.

Exactly. And right now we have too many dmen who are too easy to play against

 

[TeacherMan]

Does the team need more grit, yes. Does it need more goon? no.

We are missing Dach, who can play hard on the wall, we are missing a 2c and I hope we are not getting Duchene... We need to replace Matheson, Savard will be gone.

Caufeild - Suzuki - Dach/Slaf
Slaf/Dach - 2c [Horvat/Crosby] - Demidov
Anderson - [Dvorak] - Gally
Heineman - Evan - [new 4th line with size and spd]

Guhle - Carrier/ Rienbacher
Hutson - [Poluck]
Xhekaj - Carrier/Reinbacher

All looks good except Dvorak and maybe another option if Dach gets injured or fails to produce

 

[DAChampion]

Percentages are irrelevant when the draft is imminent. Note I was looking at the 2019 draft when the picks were in the 2023 draft A good GM knows if it s a deep draft or if there is very little at that point in the draft. They could look at it and say the odds of even one player we like as much as Newhook dropping to 31 is very low. And that does apply to the 2023 draft. There were a few players in that range but most were small.

I expect when everything is says that the 2024 draft will have an equivalent 31-40 loot as most drafts, simply based on statistics.

You can't only look at 2019, you have to average over multiple drafts.

 

[HuGo Sham]

Absolutely! Is there a Corey-Perry type player available?

yeah....Corey Perry

 

[DAChampion]

Obviously no, because roster & cap context matter.

Beyond that, I'd obviously take Newhook over a 75% chance of insignificant NHLers (or AHLers), almost in any roster/cap context.

I assume that Hughes expected Newhook to become better than he has. As he is right now he's kind of like Dvorak, approximately replacement level.

The cost for a replacement level player should be around a 3rd or 4th round pick. Hughes gave up more because they were hoping for more from Newhook, so far it hasn't happened.

If Newhook doesn't improve he'll be off the roster in a few years.

 

[Bubba Gump]

Horvat for #16, Beck, Mailloux

Nic Roy for 3rd and 4th (Vegas in cap trouble) and you can’t have enough centres

Laine and J.Roy and 4th to San Jose for 3rd (SJ needs to get to cap floor)

Cernak or some similar to him for Struble and 2/3/4/5 picks. Tampa does need draft picks.

Heard 5 teams are planning to offer sheet Knies this summer. Columbus has all kinds of cap space but need their 2nd back from us in 2026. Trade both seconds in 2026 for the Minnesota 1st rounder that Clb has in 2025. We then still have #17 and likely #20 in 2025.

Sign Dvorak 2x$3

That’s all I want

Slaf Suz Caufield
Dach Horvat Demidov
Gally Dvo Andy
Roy Evans Newhook
Heineman

Matheson Cernak
Hutson Guhle
Xhekaj Carrier
Reinbacher

Roy and Newhook can be good options to replace any injured top 9. Could always upgrade on Dach at TDL if he poops the bed.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

He played like Newhook did. So don’t expect me to get all excited.

The fact remains he has one move, outside-in snapshot. He needs to show more versatility.

Newhook played on a stacked team and his production reflected that. Hage is an entirely different story. More similar to Caufield who was also the best player on a shit team.

 

[Vachon23]

Horvat for #16, Beck, Mailloux

Nic Roy for 3rd and 4th (Vegas in cap trouble) and you can’t have enough centres

Laine and J.Roy and 4th to San Jose for 3rd (SJ needs to get to cap floor)

Cernak or some similar to him for Struble and 2/3/4/5 picks. Tampa does need draft picks.

Heard 5 teams are planning to offer sheet Knies this summer. Columbus has all kinds of cap space but need their 2nd back from us in 2026. Trade both seconds in 2026 for the Minnesota 1st rounder that Clb has in 2025. We then still have #17 and likely #20 in 2025.

Sign Dvorak 2x$3

That’s all I want

Slaf Suz Caufield
Dach Horvat Demidov
Gally Dvo Andy
Roy Evans Newhook
Heineman

Matheson Cernak
Hutson Guhle
Xhekaj Carrier
Reinbacher

Roy and Newhook can be good options to replace any injured top 9. Could always upgrade on Dach at TDL if he poops the bed.

You don’t acquired Nicolas Roy to put him on the wing of the 4th line, you don’t resign Dvo and put him on the 3rd C. And he’s gonna cost more then that

 

[Miller Time]

If you think wasting a first round to a guy that can't even get 30 points on the top 6 an entire season is better than than a potential player which can easily make his production is good assets is perhaps that your takes are ridiculous.

Weren't you on the Dach train this season also? He was even worse than Newhook before getting injured once again

I'd gladly take Newhook over:
Mesar
Poehling
McCarron
Scherbak
LeBlanc
Juulsen
Beaulieu
Tinordi
.....

From his own draft year, Newhook (16OA) is currently 9th in scoring, and I bet his next 4 seasons he'll average better production than his career best output in his first 4.

Either way, Let's revisit at the end of his current contract, sha'll we. Happy to eat crow if I'm wrong.

 

[TheBuriedHab]

Feels like the Pens are making these weird moves in hopes of Crosby asks for a trade. They want to tank for Mckenna.

Yvon Lambert saying Hughes was asking him if he should trade for Crosby.... I think it's actually going to happen.

 

[Miller Time]

I assume that Hughes expected Newhook to become better than he has. As he is right now he's kind of like Dvorak, approximately replacement level.

Interesting. I'd be curious on his thoughts...

Certainly Newhook hasn't hit the high end of his potential yet, but I'd bet that KH is pleased with the investment to date and views Newhook's progress as sound.

Keep in mind he was an agent, and is keenly aware of the various development curves players actually take (rather than the fan expectations of linear climbs).

The cost for a replacement level player should be around a 3rd or 4th round pick. Hughes gave up more because they were hoping for more from Newhook, so far it hasn't happened.

34 in 55 last season is a 50 point pace. I'm quite sure that was close to the high end of what he expected out of him in year one.

This year was a setback production -wise, but he's still played a big role in helping this group make the playoffs.

In signing him to a 4 yr 2.9M deal, I don't think he expected all that much more than quality middle 6 minutes and production.

60pts/137 games and 7th in fwd ice time on our playoff qualifying team seems pretty on point for the halfway mark of that deal.

We'll see what he does through the back 1/2... If no progress, then I'm sure KH would be disappointed, as would Newhook.

If Newhook doesn't improve he'll be off the roster in a few years.

Meh. Disagree completely. If he doesn't progress at all, which is very unlikely, he's still a versatile middle 6 forward that is responsible defensively who will be a 26 year old RFA at the end of this contract.

I'd say if he hasn't been traded, it's a no brainer he gets a qualifying offer at the minimum unless he regresses massively the next 2 years.

 

[Bubba Gump]

You don’t acquired Nicolas Roy to put him on the wing of the 4th line, you don’t resign Dvo and put him on the 3rd C. And he’s gonna cost more then that

N. Roy is fourth line in Vegas.

 

[Bubba Gump]

Plus we have cap space so why not add him and have 4 good lines. Odd argument on your part.

 

[Vachon23]

N. Roy is fourth line in Vegas.

He’s the 7th more used forward by Vegas

 

[The Real Timo]

Horvat for #16, Beck, Mailloux

Nic Roy for 3rd and 4th (Vegas in cap trouble) and you can’t have enough centres

Laine and J.Roy and 4th to San Jose for 3rd (SJ needs to get to cap floor)

Cernak or some similar to him for Struble and 2/3/4/5 picks. Tampa does need draft picks.

Heard 5 teams are planning to offer sheet Knies this summer. Columbus has all kinds of cap space but need their 2nd back from us in 2026. Trade both seconds in 2026 for the Minnesota 1st rounder that Clb has in 2025. We then still have #17 and likely #20 in 2025.

Sign Dvorak 2x$3

That’s all I want

Slaf Suz Caufield
Dach Horvat Demidov
Gally Dvo Andy
Roy Evans Newhook
Heineman

Matheson Cernak
Hutson Guhle
Xhekaj Carrier
Reinbacher

Roy and Newhook can be good options to replace any injured top 9. Could always upgrade on Dach at TDL if he poops the bed.

Argh! Why still Matheson?

 

[tazsub3]

Absolutely! Is there a Corey-Perry type player available?

On top of my head can’t think of that , but luckily I am not payed to find such players

 

[JeffreyLFC]

I'd gladly take Newhook over:
Mesar
Poehling
McCarron
Scherbak
LeBlanc
Juulsen
Beaulieu
Tinordi
.....

From his own draft year, Newhook (16OA) is currently 9th in scoring, and I bet his next 4 seasons he'll average better production than his career best output in his first 4.

Either way, Let's revisit at the end of his current contract, sha'll we. Happy to eat crow if I'm wrong.

People overrate a lot draft pick. Of course you could probably find better players at the draft (with hindsight) than what Newhook is/will be for the Habs but apparently the rumor was that if the Habs would have retained the picks they would have selected Gavin Brindley (with their first) and Jacob Fowler (with their 2nd round pick) and we still got him in the 3rd. IMO getting Newhook is so far better than Brindley

 

[Habitant#1]

I'm coming around on Horvat.
I also think that he won't cost nearly as much as people think as long as the Habs take on the full salary without sending anything back. That cap space alone has significant value.

As for Crosby, again, I don't think he'll cost as much as people think. If he gets traded, it's because he asked to go to a specific team. There will be no bidding war. It's kind of like Patrick Kane only accepting going to the Ranger and thus only netting a 2nd. Plus, I doubt Pittsburgh would be wanting any salary coming back, which again would affect his trade value.
Obviously he would return more than Kane did, but I don't think we're talking anywhere near "two firsts and an A prospect" here.