This summer will be tricker than expected with all the cap space available to every GM and our sudden LACK of cap space...
Seems like this externality will actually harm and not help the Habs in the pursuit of a 2C or top3 RHD. We'll have 10m available and need to: sign a 3C (Dvorak is 4.45 right now), a bottom6 W (Armia is at 3.4 right now), extend Heineman RFA, replace/improve upon Savard (3.5 right now), extend Struble RFA and Dobes RFA.
Can we get and Armia replacement for around 3m? A PKing winger with size, I think so.
Can we get a Dvorak replacement for around 4m? A centreman who is two-way safe, I'm less certain at that price. Many teams will want that. Let's say 4.5m
Can we replace and improve upon Savard at 3.5m? No way, we'll need to put more toward this, let's say 5m.
Heineman gets 1.5-2m
Struble gets 1.1-2m
Dobes gets 1.5-2m
Conservative tally: 3+4.5+5+1.5+1.1+1.5 = 16.6m
Carey Price LTIR = 10.5
Leaving a meagre 4.4m
Am I counting something wrong?
Leaving just 4.4m we'll have definitely improved the on-ice roster at the margins but wouldn't have caught the Big Fish 2C... let alone two of them (2C + Top3 RHD).
HOWEVER
Two players have to leave the roster to allow Demidov and Reinbacher's entry... who do they replace and how do the existing players leave (trade, retention, waivers, etc)?
I think Newhook goes down to the bottom6 and Armia is not retained... So that 3m goes toward Demidov (ELC+Bonuses)
I think Xhekaj's 1.3m and Savard's 3.5m (net 4.8m) goes toward the Savard upgrade I mentioned, so we need to eat some of the remaining 4.4m to pay for Reinbacher's ELC+bonuses
If Hughes intends to acquire a Big Fish, he'll have to get rid of some cap-inefficient players: Gallagher's 6.5m and Anderson's 5.5m sticking out like a sore thumb. Dach 3.4m being too often unavailable and needing a fresh start means he could be dealt away too. Carrier is overpaid at 3.75m if he's going to be a bottom2 pairing player (this was NSH's logic in dealing him to us) but he's not going anywhere until he definitively loses his top4 spot, so he's here for next season. Mike Matheson's 4.87m is a great good cap hit for his usage but he could be dealt away at a good valuation if the Habs do not intend to retain him after next season when he is pending UFA -- this is unlikely though, Hughes would be depriving his team of sorely needed consistency and momentum.
Anderson dealt away as a kinda cap dump would allow us to replace his production with a 1-3m player and put the savings of 2.5-4.5m toward the Big Fish. Maybe a team seeking toughness like VAN would be open to Josh Anderson (they have ton of cap space).
The point is: we need a Big Fish (2C) and likely another Big Fish (top3D) and better depth in order to be a Serious Team but we won't have the cap space to do all that without some roster surgery.