Speculation: Trade & Free Agency Talk XXXV

[Dr Jan Itor]

Related, or very loosely related I suppose, I was listening to The Power Play with Steve Kouleas on NHL Network Radio last night and they went off on a rant about Giordano and the "knee" on McDavid the other night, and he went out of his way to say how it ruined Koviu's career. Was just interesting to hear that take, and kind of shows what an outsider's perspective is on his current game/career right now.

Wasn't the serious knee injury the other one though?

 

[AKL]

It would be Leipold's call, but in theory, we could absorb every bit of it. Unless there's a rule that I'm not aware of limiting retainage.

I thought you could only retain 50% max.

 

[StateofCelly]

Wasn't the serious knee injury the other one though?

It was if I recall. But I think he was hinting at the fact that he now has two knee issues in an aging career, and that time away was very impact on his game and where it is today. You think back and that hit changed a lot of things for the Wild. It ramped up the game, lead Dumba to be more aggressive and then the fight with Tkachuk because Dumba had to "answer the bell" and now neither Koivu or Dumba have been the same. Just interesting to look back on especially with all this focus on the "Battle of Alberta"

 

[Wabit]

Is this really what it's come to? That a professional hockey player is so inured to futility that he wouldn't agree to be traded to a playoff team and that a GM wouldn't look at taking even a draft pick in return.. woeful.

It's really his choice with the NMC. He'll be 37 when the Playoffs start, and he looks like he's feeling every day of his life on the ice right now. Maybe going home most every night to kick the kids, kiss the dog, and pet the wife means more to him than a chance at a Cup with a fringe team like Car?

If someone asks for him in trade the GM should ask Koivu if he'll waive his NMC, but it's entirely up to Koivu if he does or doesn't.

 

[Wabit]

It would be Leipold's call, but in theory, we could absorb every bit of it. Unless there's a rule that I'm not aware of limiting retainage.

50% is the max, and it would be a pro-rated amount for the rest of the season. Like if Koivu was traded today, with 50% retained, it would cost the owner ~$650k in real money to cover the remainder of the season.

 

[kfan22]

Last I heard, no one had asked Guerin about him yet. Of course that could have and can change. One reason I doubt he’s going to be very popular at the deadline now is because he’s basically been a 4C for most of this season and he’s making 5.5M. Even if we retain half, that’s still 2.75M that a team needs to take on, and with how tight most teams are against the cap, 2.75 is a lot to take on for a 4C. Especially if those teams feel they have more pressing needs to address at the deadline.

What is 5.5 million equivalent to during the last month? Obviously the cap hit would be minor at that point to whoever takes him on if anybody

 

[Wabit]

What is 5.5 million equivalent to during the last month? Obviously the cap hit would be minor at that point to whoever takes him on if anybody

Koivu has a daily cap hit of $29,570. So say 45(sih) days would put it around the TDL to the end of the season. That would be ~$1.33m he would count for their yearly cap totals. If MN retained half it would be ~$665k for each team's yearly cap totals.

 

[Bazeek]

Pretty light on trade gossip in the podcast, but there was this (around 58:50):

[Guerin]'s been meeting a lot with his staff this week, a lot of his front office people, things like that. I've gotta think that he's got a notebook of trade potential deals by several teams in this league.

I just talked to a management person for another team as I was coming here that I know was interested in Zucker, and I get the impression that Zucker has listed them on his no-trade list, which is pretty frustrating for this team. But the one thing talking to him that he told me is that there's a lot of teams looking for a Jason Zucker type right now. Because you don't usually get that at this time of year. Guys with term that are wingers, not centers. Usually at the trade deadline everybody's looking for the same thing: that puck-moving defenseman, one rugged defenseman, or a center. Very few teams are looking for that winger-type.

Also said that he talked to Milstein recently and he was adamant that Kaprizov doesn't care which wing he plays on, so he can slot in on either side.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Pretty light on trade gossip in the podcast, but there was this (around 58:50):


Also said that he talked to Milstein recently and he was adamant that Kaprizov doesn't care which wing he plays on, so he can slot in on either side.

Kaprizov-Sturm-Fiala...

 

[Bazeek]

Kaprizov-Sturm-Fiala...

The way Fiala's playing, Kaprizov - Anyone - Fiala.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

The way Fiala's playing, Kaprizov - Anyone - Fiala.

I mean...


















Kaprizov-Fiala-Kunin

 

[Bazeek]

Does anyone have a good read on how much of an illusion Ryan Strome is this year? I realize the guy's not a 70 point center, but at the very least he seems to have an ability to produce when played with skill. If we're just looking for a guy to put between Fiala and Kaprizov, isn't that pretty much all we need?

I don't know how eager the Rangers are to move him, but they've got Zibanejad and Chytil and Strome's an RFA this summer. It's the sort of situation that tends to make GMs at least explore trade options, and David Quinn seems to have a lasting soft spot for Greenway.

Does something around Strome and Greenway make sense? It makes sense to me in the abstract, even if I'd really rather not trade Greenway, but I really don't know what to make of Strome or his hypothetical extension.

Maybe we're better off just waiting on Khovanov?

 

[fentonsbrainchild]

ESPN’s mock trade has us trading Zucker for Hallander and PIT’s 2021 2nd.

Hard pass

 

[Bazeek]

ESPN’s mock trade has us trading Zucker for Hallander and PIT’s 2021 2nd.

Hard pass

ESPN is crap, but I could see that as the sort of offer that Guerin has on the table right now. Unfortunately.

Really depends on what one thinks Hallander can become and how much we need it. His production isn't all that dissimilar from Ek's and Asplund's at the same ages, but it's hard to know what to take away from SHL numbers. We've already got Ek and Sturm to be the physical, shut-down type centers going forward, so if he just projects as another one of those I'm not sure he's much of a need.

If it came to this or just a 1st+3rd I'd probably prefer the picks, but the better option seems like it'd be to just wait until the draft and see what other teams are offering.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

ESPN is crap, but I could see that as the sort of offer that Guerin has on the table right now. Unfortunately.

Really depends on what one thinks Hallander can become and how much we need it. His production isn't all that dissimilar from Ek's and Asplund's at the same ages, but it's hard to know what to take away from SHL numbers. We've already got Ek and Sturm to be the physical, shut-down type centers going forward, so if he just projects as another one of those I'm not sure he's much of a need.

If it came to this or just a 1st+3rd I'd probably prefer the picks, but the better option seems like it'd be to just wait until the draft and see what other teams are offering.

I agree. Not sure why his name is even on these trade lists honestly. Like, a team might overpay for a Foligno - he's the kind of guy GMs like for the playoffs. But Zucker, with his one goal in his last 16 playoff games (small sample alert)? Just doesn't scream great sell-high opportunity. More of a ... gotta do sumpthin'.

 

[Bazeek]

I agree. Not sure why his name is even on these trade lists honestly. Like, a team might overpay for a Foligno - he's the kind of guy GMs like for the playoffs. But Zucker, with his one goal in his last 16 playoff games (small sample alert)? Just doesn't scream great sell-high opportunity. More of a ... gotta do sumpthin'.

Well Rutherford's all but written a formal letter to the world at large saying that he wants to trade for Zucker (again). With Guentzel out it makes sense that he's at least a semi-motivated buyer.

And Zucker's playoff numbers are concerning, but I still think it's largely due to him being miscast as a primary scoring thread. If he's the most dangerous shooter on the team then yeah, he's not all that hard to shut down. But as a complimentary piece on a team with Crosby, Malkin, Letang, etc? I think it's probably a different story.

 

[Wabit]

Well Rutherford's all but written a formal letter to the world at large saying that he wants to trade for Zucker (again). With Guentzel out it makes sense that he's at least a semi-motivated buyer.

And Zucker's playoff numbers are concerning, but I still think it's largely due to him being miscast as a primary scoring thread. If he's the most dangerous shooter on the team then yeah, he's not all that hard to shut down. But as a complimentary piece on a team with Crosby, Malkin, Letang, etc? I think it's probably a different story.

I see Zucker don't see doing any better in Pit than he has here. Pit is more of a passing/possession team; which isn't really Zucker's strengths. EDM, Nuks, or Tor is a place I think he'd excel with the more run and gun, open, offenses they have.

He's ineffective in the Playoffs because teams usually play a more conservative game. It nullifies his speed when the d-men are staying back.

 

[57special]

Maybe , but his speed(assuming he gets it back) makes teams cautious about pinching, which allows the puck handlers to gain the neutral zone uncontested, where thy can wreak havoc. Also, what any team with superior passers and puck handlers needs is shooters they can feed. Crosby and Malkin are more than capable of scoring themselves, but they will attract multiple defenders, leaving linemates open. Zucker isn't a genius, but he's smart enough to know that he will get a ton of chances playing with either player, and will be ready. He would be playing, essentially, with two Uber Granlunds, which is when he was at his best.

EDM is also a good fit. Yamamoto seems to have turned a corner, so a player like Zucker would fill out the top 6, and possibly allow them to separate Drai and McD.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Maybe , but his speed(assuming he gets it back) makes teams cautious about pinching, which allows the puck handlers to gain the neutral zone uncontested, where thy can wreak havoc. Also, what any team with superior passers and puck handlers needs is shooters they can feed. Crosby and Malkin are more than capable of scoring themselves, but they will attract multiple defenders, leaving linemates open. Zucker isn't a genius, but he's smart enough to know that he will get a ton of chances playing with either player, and will be ready. He would be playing, essentially, with two Uber Granlunds, which is when he was at his best.

EDM is also a good fit. Yamamoto seems to have turned a corner, so a player like Zucker would fill out the top 6, and possibly allow them to separate Drai and McD.

They've been separated for a couple weeks.

 

[SupremeNachos]

They've been separated for a couple weeks.

Did they go to counseling yet?

 

[Bazeek]

Saw tweet floating around in various places lately:


The Leipold thing seemed weird, and considering that account's history of misreporting things it seemed better to hunt down the audio. Nothing all that surprising, but here's the most relevant part (around 7:10).

I do expect some moves here, I just don't expect him to really blow things up going into the trade deadline.

I do fully believe that a guy like Jason Zucker might be traded. Especially now, I mean, they're playing him on the fourth line, I'm here in Dallas, we're recording this on a Friday, they're gonna play him on the fourth line, the second game in a row. He's clearly not happy about it, I can't imagine he is, at least. And I've sort of gotten an inkling of what his no-trade clause is and the one thing I'm pretty positive is that Pittsburgh is not on it. Which means that the Pittsburgh Penguins, one of the teams that're coming after Jason Zucker hard, can acquire him without the Wild even technically talking to Jason about it. He's not listed [them] on his "no" list.

I've talked to a lot of sources here today. The Arizona Coyotes are also very interested in Jason Zucker as well. The Carolina Hurricanes have shown interest in Jason Zucker, but I'm not convinced that they would be without at least a conversation with Jason. That Billy would be allowed to trade him there, if you catch my drift.

So it's gonna be interesting what happens. Again, Kirill Kaprizov is coming, they're gonna have to open a spot for him, Fiala's going nowhere, Zuccarello's going nowhere, I can't imagine Luke Kunin's going anywhere, so that really leaves, process of elimination, only a certain amount of guys that can be moved to open up that spot, and that'd be guys like Zucker or Greenway or Foligno. And I really just don't buy that Billy Guerin's gonna trade Foligno at this point. I mean, Marcus Foligno quite frankly might be the captain of this team next year. So that'll be interesting if Mikko's no longer here or retires after this season, who becomes the next captain.

On the blueline, I've talked to some people today in the league about the blueline and while there's no doubt that Billy Guerin's getting calls on Matt Dumba, people are really doubting that he would be able to get enough that's gonna make that appetizing for him to make that trade. Meaning a 1st round pick, a prospect, and probably a center. So that could leave the potential of a Brodin trade, we'll see.

There's a little more about Zucker and Guerin, but it's all about what you'd expect.

 

[TaLoN]

Heh... the tweet says CL is implied, the actual Russo comment seems to imply a conversation with Jason in terms of his NTC. It implies Carolina is on the list.

Also, glad to hear they believe you don't trade Dumba without significant return based on what his track was showing before the current slump.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Saw tweet floating around in various places lately:


The Leipold thing seemed weird, and considering that account's history of misreporting things it seemed better to hunt down the audio. Nothing all that surprising, but here's the most relevant part (around 7:10).


There's a little more about Zucker and Guerin, but it's all about what you'd expect.

Nice find. I’m not exactly sure I understood the part about Leopoldo blocking a trade, though. I do like the fact that it’s obvious to Billy that changes need to be made, but that’s not really new information. Arizona intrigues me. Is Schmaltz playing C over there? I doubt Zucker for Dvorák would go through, but I’d love to look at that. Prospects like Jenik and Maccieli are extremely appealing, but likely a no-go.

 

[TaLoN]

I’m not exactly sure I understood the part about Leopoldo blocking a trade, though

The Russo quote from the podcast doesn't imply CL would block anything at all... Zucker's NTC would.

The twitter poster was reading things wrong.

 

[Bazeek]

Nice find. I’m not exactly sure I understood the part about Leopoldo blocking a trade, though. I do like the fact that it’s obvious to Billy that changes need to be made, but that’s not really new information. Arizona intrigues me. Is Schmaltz playing C over there? I doubt Zucker for Dvorák would go through, but I’d love to look at that. Prospects like Jenik and Maccieli are extremely appealing, but likely a no-go.

I assume the Leipold thing was this guy misinterpreting the part about Carolina being on Zucker's list. The phrasing was weird but you could tell what he was actually getting at. Subtly misreporting audio clips seems to be his schtick.

I doubt Arizona's going to offer anything appealing, but regardless of who the dance partner ends up being I'm fully prepared for the trade equivalent of room temperature tofu.