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Trade and Free Agency - 2024-25

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Minnewildsota said:
IF the cap gets to 114M, unless I'm mistaken, it's a projection and not set in stone. Not to be political, but the way the economy is going I would be rather surprised if it hits that mark.
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That is an extremely fair point, and likely a battle that GMs and agents are going to fighting this offseason.

I think the idea was that it was essentially set in stone when it was released, prior to all the political stuff. Now, it's anybody's guess.
 
Dr Jan Itor said:
Currently, no, but every long-term 2nd contract is a bet on the future. The whole idea is to overpay in years 1 to maybe 3, and then underpay from then on. If you don't want to go long-term with Rossi, that's a separate issue, but the logic of coming up with that number on an 8 year deal is not flawed.

Rossi went from a 40 point rookie season, to a 50-60 point 2nd season. If you think that this is where he is stopping, then by all means, don't make the bet and bridge him (again, something I am not against). If you think he's going to continue to improve, then it's probably a bet you can make with a clear conscience.

Truthfully, I haven't decided what my #1 preference would be, but what I have been doing is trying to come up with what I think could be reasonable numbers in this situation, given all of the factors: cap increase, long-term vs. short-term contracts, roster flexibility, recent comparables, etc.
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I absolutely do not want anything more than 4 years for Rossi. Even 4 years feels like it is pushing it.

His 45% increase in shooting percentage is a fantastic indicator that he is due for a regression next season.

He is taking less shots this year than his rookie season, despite having ~1:30 more time on ice per game.

His 5v5 production is projected to be only a 4 point increase from his rookie season and will likely be less if he doesn't pull his head out of his ass with his recent play.

I see this 100% being like a Dylan Cozens situation.
Dr Jan Itor said:
8 x $7.9M
7 x $7.4M (behind Boldy factoring in the cap increase, which does actually exist)
6 x $6.9M
5 x $6.4M ($2M behind Wyatt Johnston)
4 x $5.9M
3 x $5.4M (pretty close to what I've seen others toss around as a bridge for Knies)
2 x $4.9M
1 x $4.4M

Pick your favorite.
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3 or 4 years, but I also think your projects are off for what Rossi's camp will demand.
 
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For the record, I think that Chychrun (a near UFA top pair defenseman) getting 8 x $9M should pretty much close the door on the idea that Rossi should get anything near that on an 8 year deal (not that I think that door should've been open much in the first place).

I feel like my previous listing is pretty reasonable.
 
DigitalBoldy said:
I absolutely do not want anything more than 4 years for Rossi. Even 4 years feels like it is pushing it.

His 45% increase in shooting percentage is a fantastic indicator that he is due for a regression next season.

He is taking less shots this year than his rookie season, despite having ~1:30 more time on ice per game.

His 5v5 production is projected to be only a 4 point increase from his rookie season and will likely be less if he doesn't pull his head out of his ass with his recent play.

I see this 100% being like a Dylan Cozens situation.

3 or 4 years, but I also think your projects are off for what Rossi's camp will demand.
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I think 4 years walks him right to ufa so let's not do that. Have to bridge or take a chance on a longer deal.
 
We don't need to be worried about Rossi making more than Boldy. Guerin is going to hold to a number, and Rossi is either going to buckle or be traded. That's the benefit for a GM not valuing a player.

I think the question is more, would we want an NHL player for futures back? Futures would allow us essentially an entire $15M to play with in UFA. An NHL player would eat into that.

Example: Rossi to Montreal (needs a 2C) for Michael Hage (6'1" RSC prospect), and then we go get Ehlers in free agency, which might cost $10M.
 
DigitalBoldy said:
He isn't doing that so he should be paid at the same rate or less than Boldy, no?
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When you say rate are you meaning per game or vs. the cap? Markets care about comparable pay/prices, but they also care about how much cash is available in the system. There's really a balance between the two, where Boldy probably does get used as a comparable, but Rossi's group will look at his percentage of cap (from when he signed) and demand something approaching it.

At that point, it's up to Guerin to decide if he wants to pay that or not. He probably won't, so some sort of compromise or trade will need to occur.
 
BagHead said:
When you say rate are you meaning per game or vs. the cap? Markets care about comparable pay/prices, but they also care about how much cash is available in the system. There's really a balance between the two, where Boldy probably does get used as a comparable, but Rossi's group will look at his percentage of cap and demand something approaching it.
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I'd have no problem giving Rossi the equivalent to what Boldy got. Rossi is also a center, Boldy is a winger, so Rossi should get a bit more.
 
BagHead said:
When you say rate are you meaning per game or vs. the cap? Markets care about comparable pay/prices, but they also care about how much cash is available in the system. There's really a balance between the two, where Boldy probably does get used as a comparable, but Rossi's group will look at his percentage of cap and demand something approaching it.

At that point, it's up to Guerin to decide if he wants to pay that or not. He probably won't, so some sort of compromise or trade will need to occur.
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This is a dangerous road you're walking down...
 
AKL said:
I'd have no problem giving Rossi the equivalent to what Boldy got. Rossi is also a center, Boldy is a winger, so Rossi should get a bit more.
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I think they should be near equal. Boldy is the the better player IMO, but Rossi is a center. At the time of signing, both had/have room to grow still, as players. I don't think they're far off from each other, honestly.
 
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Dr Jan Itor said:
This is a dangerous road you're walking down...
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I know. I'm not trying to be a jerk or anything (it's just effortless), but inflation is a real thing, so why would we pretend it's not? They're in a market that is rapidly inflating, so the effects are going to be seen. I can say this, and if people don't want to hear it, or they think it isn't fair (what part of life is?), that's fine.
 
I think if they're going to make a trade for the offense they're looking for, I'd see what you can get for Öhgren while his value is still high. Very much not sold on him, and we can package him with one of the LD who seemingly have no future here either (Peart, Lambos). Sign Rossi, bridge him if you're not convinced, but sign him, and see what the team looks like next year before you trade any big names.
 
AKL said:
Is anyone showing up right now?

I'm confused as to why we're singling out Rossi.
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Because he is the one people are advocating a large contract for. Maybe we shouldn't just give every young player that looks good for a portion of the year a fat contract at the first chance.

And also because of the endless moaning about how Rossi was treated unfairly for the entire first half of the season while riding shotgun to Kaprizov.

Boldy and Faber have been shit recently too and are THE examples for why we shouldn't just hand every young player with a pulse a fat contract.
 
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BagHead said:
When you say rate are you meaning per game or vs. the cap? Markets care about comparable pay/prices, but they also care about how much cash is available in the system. There's really a balance between the two, where Boldy probably does get used as a comparable, but Rossi's group will look at his percentage of cap (from when he signed) and demand something approaching it.

At that point, it's up to Guerin to decide if he wants to pay that or not. He probably won't, so some sort of compromise or trade will need to occur.
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$7M per year.
 
DigitalBoldy said:
Because he is the one people are advocating a large contract for.
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Not all that large. Advocating for giving him a Boldy level contract. He's in that tier, he gets that contract. Don't really see the upside to moving him. The contracts to Boldy, Faber and the potential contract to Rossi are about gambling on them being more than worth it in the long term. It wasn't about the first year or two alone.

Hypothetically, in 3 years, would I rather have Rossi at 8M or Foligno+Trenin at 8M? It's an easy choice for me.
 
I'm just personally a big fan of being patient with 23 year old centers who show a ton of promise. I get that that's not a universal notion, and that's fine. I do remember at least a few people wanting to trade Eriksson Ek at 23 too because he wasn't a finished product. I'm glad we held on to him. His work ethic and desire to get better turned him into a great player.
 
AKL said:
Not all that large. Advocating for giving him a Boldy level contract. He's in that tier, he gets that contract. Don't really see the upside to moving him. The contracts to Boldy, Faber and the potential contract to Rossi are about gambling on them being more than worth it in the long term. It wasn't about the first year or two alone.

Hypothetically, in 3 years, would I rather have Rossi at 8M or Foligno+Trenin at 8M? It's an easy choice for me.
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You might have to go back a few pages, but there are advocates for $9M/yr on a long term deal. I'm just not comfortable with that.

Do you expect Rossi to improve next year compared to this year? I'm expecting a Cozens type regression when he went from 68 points to 47 the year after signing his long term deal. Rossi's shooting percentage alone and the fact he has taken way fewer shots this year would lead me to believe a regression is in order. He won't be on the top power play once everyone is back healthy. I could see a drop from 60 points to ~45-50 points.

I hope I am wrong about Rossi's player evaluation. $7M on a short term deal is the max AAV I would go.
 
DigitalBoldy said:
Do you expect Rossi to improve next year compared to this year? I'm expecting a Cozens type regression when he went from 68 points to 47 the year after signing his long term deal. Rossi's shooting percentage alone and the fact he has taken way fewer shots this year would lead me to believe a regression is in order. He won't be on the top power play once everyone is back healthy. I could see a drop from 60 points to ~45-50 points.
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I expect Rossi to improve over the next several years, the same way Eriksson Ek has. You can't teach drive and work ethic, and those are Rossi's strongest traits. The rest of it can be taught or improved.

For the record, I have never been high on Cozens going back to the draft, and that season was an aberration by the entire Sabres offense, not just him.

I would also point out that 45-50 points seems excessively pessimistic. He had 46 points in the first 52 games of the season, and since then has had 8 points in 19 games. 8 in 19 is bad, but it's been exacerbated by the current 3 in 11 stretch he's in. And I would point out that there was one point this season where your golden boy Brady Tkachuk had 2 points in 14 games. :nod:
 
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