Speculation: Trade and Free Agency - 2024-25

[DigitalBoldy]

Guerin didn't think much of Sturm. Gave him a low offer. Then traded him and didn't really pursue him in free agency. Decided to go with Steel instead.

This is factually incorrect. Guerin offered more term and more AAV than he got from San Jose.

 

[BagHead]

Guerin didn't think much of Sturm. Gave him a low offer. Then traded him and didn't really pursue him in free agency. Decided to go with Steel instead.

Ah, I see where you're coming from now. The difference between how we're seeing it is the quote that Sturm himself gave to Russo: "It was a good offer, but it wasn’t about more money." And then Russo continued: "He didn’t want to elaborate beyond that other than to admit role was a concern."

The Wild didn't have any major changes to their center depth chart between the time they offered him the contract and the time he hit UFA, so there is (and was) no reason to think he would sign with the Wild. Quite the contrary, really. I don't know why a GM would waste time on a guy who already said he doesn't want to be there. I don't want him wasting time on guys who state clearly that they don't want the role that's available. At that point, the GM needs to move on to the next guy and the next guy happened to be Sam Steel.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Ah, I see where you're coming from now. The difference between how we're seeing it is the quote that Sturm himself gave to Russo: "It was a good offer, but it wasn’t about more money." And then Russo continued: "He didn’t want to elaborate beyond that other than to admit role was a concern."

The Wild didn't have any major changes to their center depth chart between the time they offered him the contract and the time he hit UFA, so there is (and was) no reason to think he would sign with the Wild. Quite the contrary, really. I don't know why a GM would waste time on a guy who already said he doesn't want to be there. I don't want him wasting time on guys who state clearly that they don't want the role that's available. At that point, the GM needs to move on to the next guy and the next guy happened to be Sam Steel.

Both Hartman and Gaudreau could play wing. I don't buy the role argument; there was room to move up.

 

[BagHead]

Both Hartman and Gaudreau could play wing. I don't buy the role argument; there was room to move up.

He was a 26 year old 4th line center who wasn't good enough, yet, to push either of them to the wing. I think that situation provides enough uncertainty for him that he'd want to go somewhere where he could play 3rd line immediately and hope he can solidify himself into that role. Imagine yourself in that spot: you're at the age guys typically are no longer developing at, but instead declining, you're in a 4th line role, and you've got a young stud center behind you that was recently drafted. There is no 5th line.

 

[Wasted Talent]

This is factually incorrect. Guerin offered more term and more AAV than he got from San Jose.

This is how I remember too, and did some googling to verify. Here's Russo speculating the contract offer to Sturm was more $2 million:

The $2 million to add Jost for next season didn’t come on a whim. I learned a day later that the Wild offered a long-term contract extension to Nico Sturm — I’m betting at a hair more than Jost. Sources say he turned it down, but what that tells you is they always had that money they’re giving Jost penciled in for Sturm or another forward.

Ask Russo: Could the Wild trade for Marc-André Fleury? How to keep Kevin Fiala? Why does Jack McBain want out?

Do the Wild regret buying out Ryan Suter? Could they trade for Jakob Chychrun? Michael Russo answers subscriber questions.

www.nytimes.com

Sounds like Guerin was willing to give him a decent contract, while Sturm felt like he would be locked in as a 4th line center with the Wild. Can't really blame him wanting to bet on himself (even if he's still just a 4th line center on another team).

 

[thestonedkoala]

He was a 26 year old 4th line center who wasn't good enough, yet, to push either of them to the wing. I think that situation provides enough uncertainty for him that he'd want to go somewhere where he could play 3rd line immediately and hope he can solidify himself into that role. Imagine yourself in that spot: you're at the age guys typically are no longer developing at, but instead declining, you're in a 4th line role, and you've got a young stud center behind you that was recently drafted. There is no 5th line.

I don't see how Rossi factors in at all other than pushing Hartman or Gaudreau to the bottom 6 and then they could swing out to wing. More so Sturm seems to still be pretty damn good at face offs, which Minnesota really struggles at The only competition was Khus and that was years away.

Honestly Sturm reminds me of Duhaime. The Wild went from Duhaime to Trenin. More expensive but just as good.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

He was a 26 year old 4th line center who wasn't good enough, yet, to push either of them to the wing. I think that situation provides enough uncertainty for him that he'd want to go somewhere where he could play 3rd line immediately and hope he can solidify himself into that role. Imagine yourself in that spot: you're at the age guys typically are no longer developing at, but instead declining, you're in a 4th line role, and you've got a young stud center behind you that was recently drafted. There is no 5th line.

He was offered a 5 year $2.5M AAV contract. There was no uncertainty unless he thought he was a top 6 guy elsewhere. He ended up settling for 3 years $2M AAV. Lost out on $1.5M in a 3 year span and even more when you factor in California taxes.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Apparently Dallas offered Johnston an 8 year deal slightly over 8M.

Guerin you watching how it's done?

If Dallas is starting at a little over $8M, Guerin might be justified at starting Rossi at a little under $7M, to be honest. Obviously that's pre-negotiating.

 

[AKL]

If Dallas is starting at a little over $8M, Guerin might be justified at starting Rossi at a little under $7M, to be honest. Obviously that's pre-negotiating.

I'm not seein it

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I'm not seein it

I think Johnston is ~$1M better than Rossi. Maybe a tad more.

 

[thestonedkoala]

If Dallas is starting at a little over $8M, Guerin might be justified at starting Rossi at a little under $7M, to be honest. Obviously that's pre-negotiating.

That'd be fair

 

[AKL]

I think Johnston is ~$1M better than Rossi. Maybe a tad more.

Yeah that's what I'm not seeing

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah that's what I'm not seeing

I don't know how it's deniable that he's ahead of whatever curve Rossi is on.

 

[MNRube]

I really think Sturm is a perfect fit for the bottom 6. Sizable upgrade over Marat and would combine with Trenin to give us a really effective 4th line when everyone is healthy.

He’s one of the best FO guys in the league and can PK.

I don't know how it's deniable that he's ahead of whatever curve Rossi is on.

Agreed. But I doubt WJ settles for less than 9.5 long term.

 

[AKL]

I don't know how it's deniable that he's ahead of whatever curve Rossi is on.

Well he has been head of Rossi until this year. At this point I'm not sure how much it matters. If they're both around 70-80 point centers, their age and how long it took them to get here is fairly irrelevant for this next contract. They both have the capacity to improve, regress or stagnate from here on out right?