Speculation: Trade and Free Agency - 2024-25

[BuiumSaveUs]

I suspect that the McGroarty boat sailed when they made the pick, which is fine.

With the way Russo was floating the idea that they were interested in trading back, they could have figured that the defensemen would likely be gone by #13 and they'd be looking at someone like Helenius or MBN; at that point, why not just convert it into McGroarty and skip a few years of development? Especially when a young player on an ELC is particularly valuable to us next year?

Maybe it's wildly optimistic of me, but getting Buium here feels like a potential turning point. If him, Yurov and Wallstedt pan out the way we hope, how much easier is it to pitch Kaprizov on an extension in 2026?

An extended Kaprizov would give us a few years with a core of:

Kaprizov
Eriksson-Ek
Boldy
Yurov

Faber
Buium

Wallstedt

Brodin would still be around. Rossi seems like he'll be solid supporting cast, at worst. We'll see what Ohgren's got this year, the prospect pool isn't bereft of potential call-ups, and if Guerin can keep it between the lines the cap structure should be strong.

I'm on my second whiskey and Coke, but where's the weak point? Snarl? What do we think the going rate for Snarl is in 2027?

Bazeek like Billy G

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

The more I look into it, I like the idea of taking a shot in Laine. Still only 26. He had a down, shortened season(18 games only) this year because of injuries and his leave of absence. However, the 2 previous seasons were at or near a point per game. Acquisition cost should be low and there should be significant retention, but it's certainly worth the gamble to me that he could get back to 30 goal form, especially with a fresh start.

 

[Digitalbooya]

The more I look into it, I like the idea of taking a shot in Laine. Still only 26. He had a down, shortened season(18 games only) this year because of injuries and his leave of absence. However, the 2 previous seasons were at or near a point per game. Acquisition cost should be low and there should be significant retention, but it's certainly worth the gamble to me that he could get back to 30 goal form, especially with a fresh start.

Depends on what the cost would be at 50% retention.

 

[Owen Nolan]

I'd rather callup ROR and see what he has at the NHL level. Maybe he has something, maybe he doesn't?

Hunt was the same as Beckman or Walker when they were called up. Filled a roster spot and was "good" because there were 0 expectations for them. I just see the skills of an AHL quality player in Hunt with no reason to have him in the NHL. No PK or PP skillset, not physical, not an o-zone or d-zone specialist, okay skating, okay passing, a decent shot for a d-man.

Chisholm was a picked up off the scrap heap and is very far ahead of where Hunt is as a player. I don't even see Chisholm as more than a fringe NHL player. But he is a decent/good PPQB, and not a train wreck in the d-zone. So there is a reason to keep him in the lineup until something better comes along.

Both Hunt & Khus played super conservative during their short opportunities. Their effort to avoid mistakes likely cost them both the chance to show their full capabilities.

Hunt is better than Merrill, in my opinion. I’m hopeful J. Merrill is traded for a bag of pucks tomorrow or shortly after thereafter.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Depends on what the cost would be at 50% retention.

Of course. Even with retention I'm not going to give up premium assets for him. Still, it doesn't sound like people are blowing Columbus' doors off with offers right now.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

AHL LD + 2026 3rd

 

[Digitalbooya]

Of course. Even with retention I'm not going to give up premium assets for him. Still, it doesn't sound like people are blowing Columbus' doors off with offers right now.

If it's something like this:

AHL LD + 2026 3rd

Then I'm in on Laine too.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's a bigger deal though. Something like Rossi + Gustavsson + Gaudreau for Laine (at ~6M and Kent Johnson).

My slightly off the radar free agent prediction would be Anthony Duclair. Speed And can score, but he also is a good locker room guy by all accounts. He makes the room fun. Guerin likes that type of stuff.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I'm fully expecting the free agency stuff to be Perron and a bunch of vets for Iowa. Let's hear everyone's predictions!

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Of course. Even with retention I'm not going to give up premium assets for him. Still, it doesn't sound like people are blowing Columbus' doors off with offers right now.

I would gladly pay futures to give him a shot, but with the level of retention we would need, that would not feasibly be cheap. I also doubt that Columbus is primarily interested in futures, and our only roster player that's tradable is Rossi. The point of trading for Laine, in my eyes, is to get someone for Rossi to play with.

Columbus is overflowing with young D at similar projections to our pool, so not a lot of chemistry as trade partners going strength to strength there.

I think it is likely we get "outbid" by a team that offers a similarly challenging, but recoverable player with an injury history, or offers a different element that CLB need on their team next season. Similar to the Havlat swap.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

I'm fully expecting the free agency stuff to be Perron and a bunch of vets for Iowa. Let's hear everyone's predictions!

First thing is Middleton extension happens, and I am pretty whelmed.

The pretty much the above, swing for Perron and if we miss, ask around for any short term scorers interested in a new opportunity with PP time, then look into Laine, probably miss on that too.

Most of our UFA signings will happen later on this summer and be short term. The 2W spot is appealing for a player trying to rebound for a payday somewhere else, so I do think it gets filled.

 

[Owen Nolan]

I'm fully expecting the free agency stuff to be Perron and a bunch of vets for Iowa. Let's hear everyone's predictions!

I’d love it if it was Tyler Toffoli instead of Perron. But you’re probably right.

 

[Wabit]

Both Hunt & Khus played super conservative during their short opportunities. Their effort to avoid mistakes likely cost them both the chance to show their full capabilities.

Hunt is better than Merrill, in my opinion. I’m hopeful J. Merrill is traded for a bag of pucks tomorrow or shortly after thereafter.

I don't think Marat K was super conservative compared to the season he had in the KHL. 6g/14a (20p) in 49 games (Sochi). Expanding his NHL 1g/3a in 16 games to a similar number of games would be 3g/9a (12p) in 48 games. It looks similar to when league difficulty is considered.

Merrill was better than Hunt last year. Mermis (worse than Merrill) was better than Hunt last year. Chisholm was picked up off waivers and was better than all of them. So the claim that Hunt (any of the LD prospects) were being blocked by players already on the NHL team doesn't hold water for me. Cap wasn't an issue once Spurgeon went on LTIR. Roster size is a minor issue at best. Being afraid to lose Mermis to waivers shouldn't stop any well run team from bring up a "better" player.

The new and shiny is still very strong on the forums.

Remember Addison's 22-23 season? When he was worth at least a 2nd and maybe even a 1st in trade according to the boards? The contract numbers being tossed around were at 2-3 times what he actually ended up getting. His game didn't change in the span of a year and everyone was happy to see him gone for basically nothing.

Merrill is fine (a bit too much cap, but way less too much cap compared to others on the roster) if he's the pressbox d-man. It's better to have the vet sit in the pros and the prospect playing games in the minors than the prospect sitting in the pros and the vet playing games in the minors.

 

[Wabit]

I'm fully expecting the free agency stuff to be Perron and a bunch of vets for Iowa. Let's hear everyone's predictions!

I really hope I'm wrong on all of these.
1. Middleton gets signed to a $4m x 4 deal.
2. GMBG then strikes out on getting the UFAs he wants.
3. It's a waiting game to see which good/decent player is left without a chair and try to sign them. GMBG swings and misses and they all go to other teams.
4. More waiting games. GMBG signs a player is PIT ties.
5. Trade for a grit/character FWD. Oops, forgot that already happened at the draft.

 

[Owen Nolan]

“The new and shiny is still very strong on the forums.”
- Diminishing my opinion with your opinion….. Just because you post a lot of opinion, doesn’t make you an authority.

Merrill got it together at the end but he was hot garbage for 1/2 the season or more.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I'll like the Middleton extension, because he's 6'3".

 

[Spurgeon]

I'll like the Middleton extension, because he's 6'3".

So is Skjei, but we can’t afford signings like that because we give 3rd pair defensemen & bottom 6 forwards 4 X $4M contracts

 

[Digitalbooya]

I'll like the Middleton extension, because he's 6'3".

I should say, the $4M AAV isn't the problem for me. It's the 4 year term. If Buium comes at the end of this upcoming season, you have Buium-Brodin-Middleton locked in for at least 3 years. 2 years should be the target length of contract. 3 years max.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I should say, the $4M AAV isn't the problem for me. It's the 4 year term. If Buium comes at the end of this upcoming season, you have Buium-Brodin-Middleton locked in for at least 3 years. 2 years should be the target length of contract. 3 years max.

I truly do not believe this to be a problem.

So is Skjei, but we can’t afford signings like that because we give 3rd pair defensemen & bottom 6 forwards 4 X $4M contracts

$4M is not out of line for a 3rd line player with a $90M+ cap.

 

[Spurgeon]

$4M is not out of line for a 3rd line player with a $90M+ cap.

Until their play diminishes beyond that point & you’re paying a player that shouldn’t be getting NHL ice time to begin with because they’re signed too long.

This team has the prospect pool depth that makes it unnecessary to sign Middleton to a 4-year deal. As long as his contract doesn’t have a NTC attached to it; I’ll be fine with it.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Until their play diminishes beyond that point & you’re paying a player that shouldn’t be getting NHL ice time to begin with because they’re signed too long.

This team has the prospect pool depth that makes it unnecessary to sign Middleton to a 4-year deal. As long as his contract doesn’t have a NTC attached to it; I’ll be fine with it.

Middleton is 28. This is way closer to the Hartman situation than the Foligno situation.

If they wanted to wait to see if any of the Iowa LDs show a pulse during the season, I'm fine with that too, but I'm not exactly holding my breath.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I truly do not believe this to be a problem.

Did you have a problem with signing Foligno/Hartman/Zucc to their extensions? It’s basically the same thing. I don’t think it’s great to be blocking a young player because you signed a vet for too long.

At some point, it’s better to have an ELC be the third pairing guy. A 1-2 year extension gives plenty of development time for say… Jack Peart to make a mark.

 

[NHL1674]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's a bigger deal though. Something like Rossi + Gustavsson + Gaudreau for Laine (at ~6M and Kent Johnson).

My slightly off the radar free agent prediction would be Anthony Duclair. Speed And can score, but he also is a good locker room guy by all accounts. He makes the room fun. Guerin likes that type of stuff.

Rossi + Gus = absolutely not worth the risk of a questionable Laine. I still think this team would be beyond stupid to move Gus so quick without seeing if he can bounce back next season.

 

[MNRube]

-A year from now Middleton will be on the 3rd pair (or at least be a 4/5 on the blueline hierarchy) and we will all like what he brings there. We need a couple maulers back there and he’s a solid one who has proven he can fill in as a Top 4 guy

-Anyone fighting the notion of bringing in a veteran for the 4th line has amnesia. Marat will find a role in the bottom 6. This team still has zero depth.

-Duclair > Perron for me. I don’t want another old slow guy. We already have to protect Zucc 5v5. I’d rather have more team speed than a savvy RHS.

-100% in on Laine.

-Iowa LHD shouldn’t factor into any personnel decisions until they play well enough to be NHL regulars.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Did you have a problem with signing Foligno/Hartman/Zucc to their extensions? It’s basically the same thing. I don’t think it’s great to be blocking a young player because you signed a vet for too long.

At some point, it’s better to have an ELC be the third pairing guy. A 1-2 year extension gives plenty of development time for say… Jack Peart to make a mark.

If I recall correctly, I didn't have a problem with Hartman, I was more open-minded about Zucc than most people here, and I did not like the Foligno extension because a) I did not feel like he deserved a raise after a bad and injured season, and b) I was sick of his clown show at the end of the regular season and in the playoffs.

I don't think a 2-year extension in Middleton's situation is realistic at all. That would be him giving us a gift.