Toronto Maple Leafs Draft Prototypes

[rumman]

Those are some really good players. Nice.

Dumpster diving, solid 9.9 from the Russian judge.

 

[Stephen]

I am tired of Dubas drafting Euro and especially Russians. Go look at TB sure they have Vasy, Kuch and Hedman but most of their other top players and especially their support players are Canadian plus a few Americans sprinkled in.

Gourde, Cirrelli, Stamkos, Killorn, Coleman, Goodrow, Ross Colten, Joseph

You typically don't find the hard to play against players from Russia. You find your grinders and playoff warriors from here in North America.

I know I sound like Don Cherry but it's true.

GO find guys like Cirrrelli who was a captain in the OHL. GO find those hardworking leaders in the CHL. Top looking for skilled small guys in the lower rounds. Draft hardworking North American kids who will run thru a wall for a chance to win a cup.

I don’t typically worry about the origin of players at all, so I’m not really going to argue against Russians, Finns, Swedes and Czechs or whomever the Leafs go after form a passport perspective, but from the Braden Schneider debate we had pre draft last summer and the general trend of the teams draft results, it seems like the a lot of fans and the Maple Leafs themselves have developed an aversion for WHL talent.

Only reason I bring this up as a “problem” is by and large the WHL is culturally similar to the NHL and it’s playoffs.

So if you’re looking to draft some guys who can play on a third line or replace Jake Muzzin one day, it doesn’t hurt to go to a league where that play style is already being taught.

 

[ryno23]

I don’t typically worry about the origin of players at all, so I’m not really going to argue against Russians, Finns, Swedes and Czechs or whomever the Leafs go after form a passport perspective, but from the Braden Schneider debate we had pre draft last summer and the general trend of the teams draft results, it seems like the a lot of fans and the Maple Leafs themselves have developed an aversion for WHL talent.

Only reason I bring this up as a “problem” is by and large the WHL is culturally similar to the NHL and it’s playoffs.

So if you’re looking to draft some guys who can play on a third line or replace Jake Muzzin one day, it doesn’t hurt to go to a league where that play style is already being taught.

Exactly it. The WHL and OHL both are leagues where playoffs style mimics current NHL trends hence why Dubas has failed with stacked OHL teams in the SOO cause he builds them for regular season play.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Could all of these prototypes be boiled down to the following:

1. Must be less than 5' 11" tall...
2. Must be less than 187lbs
3. Must not be overly physical (the less the better)
4. Must have high Hocky IQ (whatever that means)
5. Must be a slow skater so that Barb can work with him to get an extra 3% out of.

You get my drift...

Yeah I don't think that's the prototype of what the Leafs have drafted.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Believe it or not, I actually think Dubas is WAY better at drafting than Hunter was. My issue with him is that we never draft any bottom 6 Rough and Tumble type players...I get the best player available when its in the 1st or 2nd because the skill level is probably a big factor. What I don't think happens is when they have a choice between a smaller guy with a very small chance of hitting a higher upside taken over a guy who might have a lower ceiling but is the type of player you actually need on your team. Does that make sense?

I am not allergic to skill because the size doesn't fit my preconceptions of what a good NHL player is going to be. I just think that unless you really feel that Abbruzzese is going to work out better than a guy with less skill but some size and attitude...you should balance your drafting a bit more with different types of players.

It's not that we draft smaller skilled players...its that we seem to ONLY look for those types. That I have a problem with.

you can sign UFAs who are big and play physical and are purely bottom six guys for cheap in every free agent class. Why draft them?

Draft 10 projects who are small and have skill and could be a top 6er if they work. Leave the ones who don't work to walk when their ELCs or second contract is up, and keep the 1 or 2 who do work as cheap scoring that you could never sign that cheap as a UFA (unless they are 38 years old like Spezza)

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

How are you so confused after i explained clearly that HYMAN is basically a non factor on the line, so, any team can just double team Matthews, and basically neutralize him.

I am not confused. I am pointing out that your $11m player needs to have more than just another $11M player on his line to be effective, thus it seems, he is not quite an $11m player all by himself. Do you see what I am talking about?

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

you can sign UFAs who are big and play physical and are purely bottom six guys for cheap in every free agent class. Why draft them?

I keep hearing that...yet when we see these guys that are effective (which is what we want btw) they seem to be so rare that we can't afford them. So, I am sorry, I don't think the method we are using is working very well. Either we hate that type of player and don't draft them or we hate that type of player and don't seem to ever sign them as a UFA.

Fact is...you need that type of player to succeed...not a whole team of them...but some nicely placed ones would do the trick of dragging the rest of the timid Leafs into battle.

 

[LastWordArmy]

I keep hearing that...yet when we see these guys that are effective (which is what we want btw) they seem to be so rare that we can't afford them. So, I am sorry, I don't think the method we are using is working very well. Either we hate that type of player and don't draft them or we hate that type of player and don't seem to ever sign them as a UFA.

Fact is...you need that type of player to succeed...not a whole team of them...but some nicely placed ones would do the trick of dragging the rest of the timid Leafs into battle.

Corey Perry was available and the GM decided not to sign him.

Plenty of these guys that the Isles GM managed to sign.

Other teams find a way to find them through signing them. Maybe the issue isn't that you don't draft them, but that you do a poor job of signing them.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Believe it or not, I actually think Dubas is WAY better at drafting than Hunter was. My issue with him is that we never draft any bottom 6 Rough and Tumble type players...I get the best player available when its in the 1st or 2nd because the skill level is probably a big factor. What I don't think happens is when they have a choice between a smaller guy with a very small chance of hitting a higher upside taken over a guy who might have a lower ceiling but is the type of player you actually need on your team. Does that make sense?

I am not allergic to skill because the size doesn't fit my preconceptions of what a good NHL player is going to be. I just think that unless you really feel that Abbruzzese is going to work out better than a guy with less skill but some size and attitude...you should balance your drafting a bit more with different types of players.

It's not that we draft smaller skilled players...its that we seem to ONLY look for those types. That I have a problem with.

My guess is they would rather try to find the next Datsyuk out of the 7th round and sign free agents like a Marchment out of Junior/College/Europe to play those grinding roles that would likely have just as good a chance at making it as a drafted grinder. Easier and cheaper than the other way around.

 

[Stephen]

you can sign UFAs who are big and play physical and are purely bottom six guys for cheap in every free agent class. Why draft them?

Draft 10 projects who are small and have skill and could be a top 6er if they work. Leave the ones who don't work to walk when their ELCs or second contract is up, and keep the 1 or 2 who do work as cheap scoring that you could never sign that cheap as a UFA (unless they are 38 years old like Spezza)

I've followed the skill vs size and "best player available" debate for a long time and the issue is a lot more complex than keeping to general rules of thumb. It basically boils down to the fact that it takes a lot of different skillsets, body types and personalities to build a champion, and you need to fill the pipe line with all of them or as many as you can manage.

The other thing to consider is a player is going to be most cost controlled if home grown, so the idea of taking valuable prospects and picks and packaging them off to get a relatively expensive player isn't necessarily a sustainable strategy to team building. How many Jake Muzzin deals can any team afford to make at the cost of a 1st round pick, and 2 second round prospects in Grundstrom and Durzi? The other option of signing a UFA means you commit more to cap.

Sometimes it's right to draft a super skilled left winger with speed to burn, but sometimes you need to draft an Erik Cernak.

 

[LastWordArmy]

I've followed the skill vs size and "best player available" debate for a long time and the issue is a lot more complex than keeping to general rules of thumb. It basically boils down to the fact that it takes a lot of different skillsets, body types and personalities to build a champion, and you need to fill the pipe line with all of them or as many as you can manage.

The other thing to consider is a player is going to be most cost controlled if home grown, so the idea of taking valuable prospects and picks and packaging them off to get a relatively expensive player isn't necessarily a sustainable strategy to team building. How many Jake Muzzin deals can any team afford to make at the cost of a 1st round pick, and 2 second round prospects in Grundstrom and Durzi? The other option of signing a UFA means you commit more to cap.

Sometimes it's right to draft a super skilled left winger with speed to burn, but sometimes you need to draft an Erik Cernak.

Jake Muzzin is without a doubt a top 4 defenceman, and at some points in his career has been considered a top pair defenceman. Cernak has impressed me and on another team than tampa would be a top 4 D.

No one is saying don't draft those players.

The question is if you should draft someone who you project as a bottom-six forward or bottom-pair defenceman with size over potential top 6, top 4 players. and I say every player you draft, you should see a possibility, even if its a slim one, that they be part of that top 6/top 4/#1 goalie. If the player you are drafting has a ceiling that isn't at that level, don't bother.

So I have no issue with a pick of someone where you see with proper development, he could be Muzzin or Cernak. Those players aren't cheap.

Also its not a binary... when you draft someone who might be Muzzin, if he falls short, he could still be the third pair guy. If you are drafting a guy with third pair ceiling, if he doesn't hit that ceiling, hes' not even in the NHL.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

My guess is they would rather try to find the next Datsyuk out of the 7th round and sign free agents like a Marchment out of Junior/College/Europe to play those grinding roles that would likely have just as good a chance at making it as a drafted grinder. Easier and cheaper than the other way around.

Fair enough....but we still won't sign anyone like a real grinder that isn't past his prime and playing on a minimum salary. I am all for striking gold...but exactly how manyDatsyuk like players have been found besides Datsyuk himself in the last 20 odd years?

All I am saying is if your not going to sign these players we need as UFA's...at least waste a later round pick on one.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Also its not a binary... when you draft someone who might be Muzzin, if he falls short, he could still be the third pair guy. If you are drafting a guy with third pair ceiling, if he doesn't hit that ceiling, hes' not even in the NHL.

Ok..so spend a higher pick on the guy with a higher ceiling...nobody is saying that shouldn't happen but when you are spending every single pick on a certain type of player...it will come back to haunt you later. We found out the hard way when Hunter was drafting Fridges on skates (trademark) and missing out on Debrincat etc.

We just want balance...that's all.

 

[Stephen]

Jake Muzzin is without a doubt a top 4 defenceman, and at some points in his career has been considered a top pair defenceman. Cernak has impressed me and on another team than tampa would be a top 4 D.

No one is saying don't draft those players.

The question is if you should draft someone who you project as a bottom-six forward or bottom-pair defenceman with size over potential top 6, top 4 players. and I say every player you draft, you should see a possibility, even if its a slim one, that they be part of that top 6/top 4/#1 goalie. If the player you are drafting has a ceiling that isn't at that level, don't bother.

So I have no issue with a pick of someone where you see with proper development, he could be Muzzin or Cernak. Those players aren't cheap.

Also its not a binary... when you draft someone who might be Muzzin, if he falls short, he could still be the third pair guy. If you are drafting a guy with third pair ceiling, if he doesn't hit that ceiling, hes' not even in the NHL.

Leaf Nation got burned on a few notable big body draft picks over the years, Luke Richardson over Joe Sakic (even though Richardson was a pretty good pick who played 2 decades), trading up to draft Luke Schenn when they could have sat back and either a higher skilled defenseman or a forward in the loaded 2008 draft, and Tyler Biggs, whom the Leafs traded up to get (at the expense of the Rakell and Gibson picks), so there's a negative bias against those types.

But just like a Tyler Biggs doesn't work out, a Tom Wilson sometimes does. And you can debate whether you want a Tom Wilson or a Teuvo Teravainen, who is more of a classic top six forward with skill who was taken a few spots later. But I don't think defaulting to a top six forward should always be the interpretation of the high skill level.

 

[Stephen]

Ok..so spend a higher pick on the guy with a higher ceiling...nobody is saying that shouldn't happen but when you are spending every single pick on a certain type of player...it will come back to haunt you later. We found out the hard way when Hunter was drafting Fridges on skates (trademark) and missing out on Debrincat etc.

We just want balance...that's all.

Yeah, especially when the organization is picking Dzierkals, Bracco, Timashov and literally tap dancing around Sebastian Aho and Kirill Kaprizov, it's like what are you fools doing? Get the good skill guys, not any skill guys.

 

[Brobust]

Leaf Nation got burned on a few notable big body draft picks over the years, Luke Richardson over Joe Sakic (even though Richardson was a pretty good pick who played 2 decades), trading up to draft Luke Schenn when they could have sat back and either a higher skilled defenseman or a forward in the loaded 2008 draft, and Tyler Biggs, whom the Leafs traded up to get (at the expense of the Rakell and Gibson picks), so there's a negative bias against those types.

But just like a Tyler Biggs doesn't work out, a Tom Wilson sometimes does. And you can debate whether you want a Tom Wilson or a Teuvo Teravainen, who is more of a classic top six forward with skill who was taken a few spots later. But I don't think defaulting to a top six forward should always be the interpretation of the high skill level.

I'd like to see some alternative names you would have taken in the past two (2019 & 2020) drafts.

 

[Stephen]

I'd like to see some alternative names you would have taken in the past two (2019 & 2020) drafts.

Well, I really like Rodion Amirov but I also like Braden Schneider at our pick. Trading up for Yaroslav Askarov would have been the real home run swing, to put a guy with Vasilevskiy upside into the system.

In 2019, we didn't have a first rounder, I'm pretty sure I didn't have any strong preferences at the Robertson pick in the late second round.

In 2018, I was hoping we could move up to grab K'Andre Miller from the Dominik Bokk pick, and thought we might have a chance at Joe Veleno who was similar to Liljegren as a high pedigree player who fell in the draft but we ended up with Sandin. Think I'd still prefer K'Andre Miller to Rasmus Sandin.

But at the end of the day, my fan opinion doesn't matter since I'm not able to see what they can at the junior level. What's important is they draft and develop the kind of players they find useful at the pro level, and aren't scratching their heads as to where to find the next Zach Hyman.

 

[Trapper]

I'd like to see some alternative names you would have taken in the past two (2019 & 2020) drafts.

We didn’t have a 1st in 2019 but in 18 I was hoping we would take the center Veleno.
I had a feeling Kadri would be traded at some point and having a young quality C to groom for #3 at cost control would have been my goal.
Sandin wasn’t a bad choice but we had Dermott and Lily and are vets thin at C.

Then as others had mentioned I was high on Schneider, good RHD I mentioned several times in the draft threads.

A center and RHD to come in through the system. A system we are lacking in those areas. Those were my suggestions. We will see.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Fair enough....but we still won't sign anyone like a real grinder that isn't past his prime and playing on a minimum salary. I am all for striking gold...but exactly how manyDatsyuk like players have been found besides Datsyuk himself in the last 20 odd years?

All I am saying is if your not going to sign these players we need as UFA's...at least waste a later round pick on one.

There are grinders available via UFA that are still in their prime like , Goodrow, Coleman, Cizikas etc. Will we be able to sign them? Who knows. Our D core is pretty well all locked up except Bogo but if we move on from Freddy and sign someone like Rittich/Halak, move on from Hyman, Kerfoot gets taken in expansion, there will be some cap room to play with. As for us signing over the hill vets, I think Dubas and Co. put too much stock into veteran leadership that it hurt our team speed. I didn't like the Jumbo signing other than the fact it was cool to see him in a leafs Uni. I thought Jumbo slowed down every line he was on and would've preferred someone who plays with speed and tenacity.

Last year we drafted a couple of guys at the end of the draft that sound like modern grinders.

Tverberg- 5'11, 180lbs center. Plays with speed, goes hard to the net, battles for position in front of the net and in corners. Uses his skating and smarts defensively. Could be our own Cizikas. Needs to add some weight and strength.

Wyatt Schingoethe- 5'11, 205lbs winger. Strong skater, uses his solid frame and strength to win battles, aggressive forechecker, hard shot. Great defensively.

I hope we keep drafting guys like this. Would compliment our skill players nicely and keep the theme going of team speed. We just saw Tampa win 2 straight cups with a small forward group that plays with speed and tenacity.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

There are grinders available via UFA that are still in their prime like , Goodrow, Coleman, Cizikas etc. Will we be able to sign them? Who knows.

The problem is that when they get to the UFA stage and if they are half decent..we can't afford them. So to me, it seems more reasonable to try and draft one in the later rounds every year and hope one of them pans out.

 

[Stephen]

The problem is that when they get to the UFA stage and if they are half decent..we can't afford them. So to me, it seems more reasonable to try and draft one in the later rounds every year and hope one of them pans out.

Or if you’re developing a Mason Marchment, maybe don’t trade him in the middle of development with zero pressure to do so.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Two More Articles in the Series

Finland Based Forward Prototypes

Toronto Maple Leafs Draft Prototypes Part Four - Last Word On Hockey

Leafs Mock Draft Taking only Forwards (yes, we know the Leafs will not draft only forwards, but these are the forwards who could be around each pick).

Leafs Draft Prototypes: Forwards Only Mock Draft - Last Word On Hockey

 

[Gabriel426]

I think in general, Leafs should at least draft 1 goalie, 1 crash and bang type forward and 1 stay at home Dman in every draft.Bc when it comes to late round picks, it really have to do with luck than skill.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I think in general, Leafs should at least draft 1 goalie, 1 crash and bang type forward and 1 stay at home Dman in every draft.Bc when it comes to late round picks, it really have to do with luck than skill.

Development staff is a big part of it as well. If your scouting staff sees projectable traits in a player and then turn those players over to your development staff, they can refine their game.

If you're able to get a serviceable player out of a 5th round pick, I would say your staff did a good job. If your team gets a superstar player like Point out of the 4th, Benn (5th), Datsyuk (7th) etc. then thats probably luck.

 

[Bluelines]

In order to determine what makes a prospect a Leafs prototype, you must enter a time machine of sorts. Reid Mitchell, the Director of Hockey and Scouting Operations, was promoted to this position back in 2015. From the 2015 draft through to the 2020 draft, the Leafs have selected 28 total forwards, from Mitch Marner to Martins Dzierkals. Of those forwards, seven came from the Russian leagues (MHL, VHL, and KHL). An additional 11 forwards came via the CHL leagues, including five from the OHL, four from the WHL and two from the QMJHL. Three more came through the USHL and two each from Finland (Liiga and SM-Liiga) and Sweden (SuperElit and SHL). An additional three players came from the NLA (Switzerland), USHS (high school), and OJHL (Ontario Juniors).

How To Determine Prototypes

Each forward selected will be separated into their respective leagues, keeping a comparable playing field for every prospect. Then, for every league, there are 15 different categories; height, weight, nationality, junior team, total games played in their respective leagues, goals, assists, points, goals per game, assists per game, points per game, and finally their U18 World Juniors performances. Every former Leaf draft pick was organized into their own leagues in order to give a maximum and minimum, along with an average, for each category, which gives the draft-eligible prospects thresholds to hit. Since we are focusing on Russia for this piece, here are the Leafs’ draft picks, separated by Russian leagues for purposes of comparable statistics, below.


Russian Forwards
Toronto Maple Leafs Draft Prototypes Part One - Last Word On Hockey

CHL Forwards
Toronto Maple Leafs Draft Prototypes Part Two - Last Word On Hockey

USHL and Swedish Forwards
Leafs Draft Prototypes Part Three - Last Word On Hockey

Two More Articles in the Series

Finland Based Forward Prototypes

Toronto Maple Leafs Draft Prototypes Part Four - Last Word On Hockey

Leafs Mock Draft Taking only Forwards (yes, we know the Leafs will not draft only forwards, but these are the forwards who could be around each pick).

Leafs Draft Prototypes: Forwards Only Mock Draft - Last Word On Hockey

I think it comes down to players who can possess the puck. Leafs play a high possession game, similar to what you see in Europe, where the big ice allows you to possess the puck longer. The flaw in our drafting is we play on a small rink, where size + skill + work ethic will trump possession metrics + skill.