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Pre-Game Talk: Toronto @ Edmonton SAT FEB 27 @ 7:00 PM ET

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Critical13 said:
Edmonton's record:
OpponentGPWLWin%
Ottawa Senators440100%
Vancouver Canucks43175%
Calgary Flames32167%
Toronto Maple Leafs42250%
Winnipeg Jets42250%
Montreal Canadiens31233%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Toronto's record:
OpponentGPWLWin%
Vancouver Canucks330100%
Winnipeg Jets110100%
Calgary Flames43175%
Montreal Canadiens43175%
Ottawa Senators53260%
Edmonton Oilers42250%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Interesting to see we're over =>.500 against every team in the division. Let's keep that up and take 2 or 3 of 3.
Click to expand...


I just noticed something:

Leafs:

Vs. WPG: 71.4xgf% ---> WPG #31 xgf%
Vs. VAN: 61.7xgf% ---> VAN #23 xgf%
Vs. OTT: 54.1xgf% ---> OTT #24 xgf%
Vs. CGY: 53.8xgf% ---> CGY #12 xgf%
Vs. MTL 47.6xgf% ----> MTL #1 xgf%
Vs. EDM: 40.9xgf% ---> EDM #14 xgf%


Oilers:

Vs. TOR: 59.1xgf% ----> TOR #9xgf%
Vs. WPG: 53.3xgf% ---> WPG #31xgf%
Vs. VAN: 51.5xgf% ----> VAB #23 xgf%
Vs. MTL: 46.5xgf% ----> MTL #1 xgf%
Vs. OTT: 45.8xgf% ----> OTT #24 xgf%
Vs. CGY: 44.6xgf% ---> CGY #12 xgf%



The Leafs-Oilers head to heads have been complete outliers for both teams in terms of expected goals - the leafs are the only team the Oilers have put up an impressive xgf% against, and the Oilers are the only team the Leafs have failed to put up an impressive xgf% against (holding MTL near even when they play such an xgf-boosting style is pretty good). Without the games against the Leafs, the Oilers' xgf% would be down near the bottom of the league just like it was last year, while without those games against the Oilers, the Leafs would be amongst the elite xgf% teams in the league.

I don't know what explains that, but I sure hope that's just the Leafs not being ready for those games. There is no reason whatsoever for the Leafs to get outplayed by that roster. Hopefully the leafs re-assert their dominance over the Oilers these next 3gms not just on the scoreboard but in overall gameplay too.
 
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zeke said:
I just noticed something:

Leafs:

Vs. WPG: 71.4xgf% ---> WPG #31 xgf%
Vs. VAN: 61.7xgf% ---> VAN #23 xgf%
Vs. OTT: 54.1xgf% ---> OTT #24 xgf%
Vs. CGY: 53.8xgf% ---> CGY #12 xgf%
Vs. MTL 47.6xgf% ----> MTL #1 xgf%
Vs. EDM: 40.9xgf% ---> EDM #14 xgf%


Oilers:

Vs. TOR: 59.1xgf% ----> TOR #9xgf%
Vs. WPG: 53.3xgf% ---> WPG #31xgf%
Vs. VAN: 51.5xgf% ----> VAB #23 xgf%
Vs. MTL: 46.5xgf% ----> MTL #1 xgf%
Vs. OTT: 45.8xgf% ----> OTT #24 xgf%
Vs. CGY: 44.6xgf% ---> CGY #12 xgf%



The Leafs-Oilers head to heads have been complete outliers for both teams in terms of expected goals - the leafs are the only team the Oilers have put up an impressive xgf% against, and the Oilers are the only team the Leafs have failed to put up an impressive xgf% against (holding MTL near even when they play such an xgf-boosting style is pretty good). Without the games against the Leafs, the Oilers' xgf% would be down near the bottom of the league just like it was last year, while without those games against the Oilers, the Leafs would be amongst the elite xgf% teams in the league.

I don't know what explains that, but I sure hope that's just the Leafs not being ready for those games. There is no reason whatsoever for the Leafs to get outplayed by that roster. Hopefully the leafs re-assert their dominance over the Oilers these next 3gms not just on the scoreboard but in overall gameplay too.
Click to expand...

That is really interesting. Nice post zeke!

Our games against Edmonton have all felt wonky. Our games against them this week are easily the most interesting games of the season so far.

Edmonton's current success feels like it's being held up by a foundation of popsicle sticks and a few good games by a subpar goalie. I hope we can bring it all crashing down. Winnipeg will be a tougher matchup as their forward group is elite top to bottom.

edit: Damn, our xGF% is kind of ridiculous, actually. Even against Montreal we do well, considering Julien's system really gamed that stat.

Main board excuses:

1. The Atlantic is just weak. WRONG
2. The North is just weak. WRONG
3. Toronto is just a powerplay team. WRONG
4. ???
 
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zeke said:
I just noticed something:

Leafs:

Vs. WPG: 71.4xgf% ---> WPG #31 xgf%
Vs. VAN: 61.7xgf% ---> VAN #23 xgf%
Vs. OTT: 54.1xgf% ---> OTT #24 xgf%
Vs. CGY: 53.8xgf% ---> CGY #12 xgf%
Vs. MTL 47.6xgf% ----> MTL #1 xgf%
Vs. EDM: 40.9xgf% ---> EDM #14 xgf%


Oilers:

Vs. TOR: 59.1xgf% ----> TOR #9xgf%
Vs. WPG: 53.3xgf% ---> WPG #31xgf%
Vs. VAN: 51.5xgf% ----> VAB #23 xgf%
Vs. MTL: 46.5xgf% ----> MTL #1 xgf%
Vs. OTT: 45.8xgf% ----> OTT #24 xgf%
Vs. CGY: 44.6xgf% ---> CGY #12 xgf%



The Leafs-Oilers head to heads have been complete outliers for both teams in terms of expected goals - the leafs are the only team the Oilers have put up an impressive xgf% against, and the Oilers are the only team the Leafs have failed to put up an impressive xgf% against (holding MTL near even when they play such an xgf-boosting style is pretty good). Without the games against the Leafs, the Oilers' xgf% would be down near the bottom of the league just like it was last year, while without those games against the Oilers, the Leafs would be amongst the elite xgf% teams in the league.

I don't know what explains that, but I sure hope that's just the Leafs not being ready for those games. There is no reason whatsoever for the Leafs to get outplayed by that roster. Hopefully the leafs re-assert their dominance over the Oilers these next 3gms not just on the scoreboard but in overall gameplay too.
Click to expand...

My memory tells me that we've held McDavid at bay quite well but Draisaitl has been torching us (not just in points, but in possession and chances, anecdotally from memory). Maybe our ability to shut down elite centre depth is relatively shallow when a team has the luxury to spread it through multiple lines. Canadian teams other than TOR and EDM don't really seem have that star depth down the middle.

But more probably, random variation.
 
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All the injuries kinda scare me, I think we're still the better team even with all of these guys out but it's gonna be tough. Just focus hard on McDavid, the entire team runs through him, make it a difficult night for him, try and get physical and hustle. If we can harass him on the ice and "shut him down" if that's even possible, I like our chances. I don't think the other guys are capable of beating us, play McDavid hard and we should win this one.
 
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Critical13 said:
That is really interesting. Nice post zeke!

Our games against Edmonton have all felt wonky. Our games against them this week are easily the most interesting games of the season so far.

Edmonton's current success feels like it's being held up by a foundation of popsicle sticks and a few good games by a subpar goalie. I hope we can bring it all crashing down. Winnipeg will be a tougher matchup as their forward group is elite top to bottom.

edit: Damn, our xGF% is kind of ridiculous, actually. Even against Montreal we do well, considering Julien's system really gamed that stat.

Main board excuses:

1. The Atlantic is just weak. WRONG
2. The North is just weak. WRONG
3. Toronto is just a powerplay team. WRONG
4. ???
Click to expand...

They're running out of excuses, next one will probably be the refs are fixing games for us
 
And for all the Oilers fans that will peruse this thread....

Here's how the two duos compare since Keefe took over and gave our guys the superstar treatment that the Oilers' duo has always received:

McDavid (24): 63gms --- EV 17:31toi, 30gl/68pt pace --- PP 4:21toi, 13gl/55pt pace
Matthews (23): 67gms -- EV 18:16toi, 44gl/70pt pace --- PP 3:16toi, 18gl/33pt pace

Draisaitl (25): 70gms --- EV 17:23toi, 19gl/64pt pace --- PP 4:18toi, 23gl/52pt pace
Marner (23): 62gms ---- EV 17:15toi, 23gl/70pt pace ---- PP 3:19toi, 5gl/34pt pace

So Matthews and Marner have been flat out better even strength producers than McDavid and Draisaitl since Keefe started using his duo as legit stars, while the Oilers' duo has been helped by getting ~30% more PP time than the Leafs' duo.
 
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zeke said:
And for all the Oilers fans that will peruse this thread....

Here's how the two duos compare since Keefe took over and gave our guys the superstar treatment that the Oilers' duo has always received:

McDavid (24): 63gms --- EV 17:31toi, 30gl/68pt pace --- PP 4:21toi, 13gl/55pt pace
Matthews (23): 67gms -- EV 18:16toi, 44gl/70pt pace --- PP 3:16toi, 18gl/33pt pace

Draisaitl (25): 70gms --- EV 17:23toi, 19gl/64pt pace --- PP 4:18toi, 23gl/52pt pace
Marner (23): 62gms ---- EV 17:15toi, 23gl/70pt pace ---- PP 3:19toi, 5gl/34pt pace

So Matthews and Marner have been flat out better even strength producers than McDavid and Draisaitl since Keefe started using his duo as legit stars, while the Oilers' duo has been helped by getting ~30% more PP time than the Leafs' duo.
Click to expand...

To be fair, Drai and McDavid don't play together much 5v5 anymore while our guys are usually together.

Tho to be even more fair, Drai isn't very good at carrying play without McDavid so I think his point totals overstate his current impact
 
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Confucius said:
Well going by last years results its a coin flip. They finished with 2 points more than us but they played an extra game. I think Edmonton ends the season in 2nd behind us. So yeah I'd be happy with 3 of 6 considering our injuries.
Click to expand...

My money is on Winnipeg. They are only 3 points back with 3 games in hand on Edmonton. I trust their goaltending and overall depth of roster to hold up better than Edmonton.
 
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As we approach the mid-season mark, this three game set is definitely the most important so far. The Oilers are hot and if they can grab a couple of regulation wins, they'll catch the Leafs.

Toronto has a big chance to add to their divisional lead.

With injuries abound, it'll be a grind for the Leafs so hopefully they can at least get 3 of 6 points to tread water. I'd be happy with 4 out of 6 points though in this set.

Vancouver is playing more competitively as well, so this western swing is important. Hopefully the Leafs can stay ahead of the pack.
 
Would really like to see a healthy matthews and marner against the McOliers. Here's hoping Matthews wrist is okay... makes a HUGE differebce in his puck handling. Good news is, with our injuries, they are still 4 points back with a game in hand. So even if we lose 2 out of 3, we'll still be 2 points up with a game in hand. Of course we want more, but considering how hot they are, we'll be fine.
 
zeke said:
And for all the Oilers fans that will peruse this thread....

Here's how the two duos compare since Keefe took over and gave our guys the superstar treatment that the Oilers' duo has always received:

McDavid (24): 63gms --- EV 17:31toi, 30gl/68pt pace --- PP 4:21toi, 13gl/55pt pace
Matthews (23): 67gms -- EV 18:16toi, 44gl/70pt pace --- PP 3:16toi, 18gl/33pt pace

Draisaitl (25): 70gms --- EV 17:23toi, 19gl/64pt pace --- PP 4:18toi, 23gl/52pt pace
Marner (23): 62gms ---- EV 17:15toi, 23gl/70pt pace ---- PP 3:19toi, 5gl/34pt pace

So Matthews and Marner have been flat out better even strength producers than McDavid and Draisaitl since Keefe started using his duo as legit stars, while the Oilers' duo has been helped by getting ~30% more PP time than the Leafs' duo.
Click to expand...
Your duo plays with one another remember. Ours does not. When ours played together, they were putting up lemieux type rates.
Should be some good games!
 
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Take away those 2 guys and Edmonton is pretty bad.

Take away our top 2 guys and we wouldn't be near as good either... but still a lot better than Edmonton.

Their D is pretty bad... their goaltending is playing way above average.. and zero guys other than McDavid and drai scare me.

Shut them down and you get minimum 4 points.
 


Looks like maybe Campbell could be back?

Andersen still too hurt maybe... matthews maintenance day... and muzz and jumbo probably playing again. Let's hope.
 
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